EDIT - one week after i posted this, Britain's most successful hedge fund manager Michael Platt has taken a 6.5% stake
tl;dr
At-NAV new SPAC with world-leading expertise in online gambling. Worth a bet on potential to be next DKNG on the hype train

+++++++
Hi all - have had a lot of great tips from this sub. Hopefully this pays some of you back. I have been watching and researching this since 23 December when it first filed S1, awaiting the units to be listed - they are available today trading as ADERU
Positions - 500 units @ 10.42 to start. Will be monitoring and building position below $15, especially if attention starts to build ahead of units and warrants splitting and shares coming available to Robinhood.
(My other SPAC positions are OPEN, IPO-E-F, PSTH, FUSE, PIPP, ACTC, CCIV and DMYD, 100 to 1000 shares each mostly around NAV and numerous warrants and options around these.)
As ever, this is not investment advice and do your own research
+++++++

26 Capital Acquisition Corp or ADER
is a 240m SPAC with usual terms - 10$ units, 1/2 warrants. Seeking a merger in "gaming and gaming technology, branded consumer, lodging and entertainment, and Internet commerce sectors".
I think this is highly worth a play on the online gambling hype if you can get in at near NAV, based entirely on the management which is unbeatable in its knowledge of the gambling industry

CEO Jason Ader
has held director level positions at Las Vegas Sands Corp. ($42bn one of biggest casino groups in world), IGT (£3.72bn multinational gambling firm specialised in software and slot machines) and Playtech (£1.4bn multinational gambling software firm)
Before starting his own fund in 2013 he was regularly ranked Wall Street's top analyst on the gambling and leisure sector
His fund, Spring Owl Capital, is a small activist fund focused on gambling and leisure. They are probably most famous for ousting the CEO of Viacom in 2016 and a crusade against Yahoo CEO Marissa Meyer in 2015.
Ader knows the gambling - and online gambling - industry inside out. He drove bWin to a £1.1bn takeover by gambling giant GVC (now Entain) in 2016, and has been driving similar change and demands for improvement at board level at Playtech
The fund mostly manages money for a select group of wealthy families, which could be a positive sign for the SPAC (although I don't know how much skin in the SPAC the fund has, if any)
Here is a video of Ader from November talking about how he's excited about SPACs. He talks about how he has been advising certain States about legalising sports betting and how to maximise value and liquidity by linking up with European companies in the space (Playtech e.g.??).
Ader is extremely bullish on US legalising online casino and more sports betting options, accelerated by need for revenue because of pandemic

Rafi Ashkenazi
One of the most highly respected names in the online gambling world, including COO and CEO positions at major online gambling firms such as Playtech and Stars Group (a world leader in online poker and casino). At Stars he led the $4.7bn takeover of Sky Betting to create the world's largest publicly listed online betting firm in 2018. Most recently he led the £10bn merger between Flutter (biggest gambling company in world by revenue, market cap £26bn), and Stars Group (Ader also involved). Also has connections into the booming Israel tech space which is interesting

Joseph Kaminkow
Special Advisor to the Chief Product Officer at Aristocrat, a leading gambling software provider and games publisher, previously Vice President of Game Design at Zynga Inc. This guy is a former video game / pinball designer who is credited with revolutionising the slots industry after moving into gambling software from video games in 1999. Regarded as a "legend" and "hall of famer" in this niche. At Zynga he designed so-called 'social casino games' which don't involve real-money gambling but are otherwise basically gambling apps (revenue from microtransactions etc). 130 patents on gambling/gaming design inventions

Greg Lyss
This is a very interesting but extremely low profile person. He was Bill Ackman a.k.a SPACman's right hand man at Gotham Capital. Ackman respected him so much that when Ackman set up a personal hedge fund to invest the Ackman family's money, he put Lyss in charge of it. To repeat - Bill Ackman thinks this guy is such a good investor and trustworthy that he put him in charge of investing his family's money. Don't know anything more about him, but I like this association with Ackman, which suggests to me some integrity around management of this SPAC, especially as the gambling world can be very murky.
The other member of the team is the CFO of SpringOwl with 20+ years' hedge fund experience and not notable (although clearly competent)

Thesis / potential targets
Based on the above experience and many public comments by Ader over the past year, I would be very surprised if ADER is not looking to merge with an online gambling technology provider / existing online betting website / social casino app / possibly a supporting technology provider
They are activist inventors, and specifically say in the IPO prospectus that they could look for businesses that can benefit from turnaround or are not being run well. I speculate that their deep knowledge of the European / global online gambling industry means they have a target in mind that they think would benefit from their expertise and US liberalisation of gambling legislation.

1) Ader believes the listing of UK-listed gambling companies in US is immediately big in terms of market cap because of the premium on online gambling stocks in US. He has pitched DraftKings to takeover Playtech and called on Playtech to spin off non-core business. This makes me wonder if he would spin off some element of Playtech to list in US to cash in on gambling hype.
This might be Finalto.com / TradeTech which is an online financial platform owned by Playtech. Playtech has been trying to sell this for 200 - 240m since August so it fits. This company provides liquidity and trading to brokerages and runs markets.com a trading site. I wouldn't be that excited although apparently the business has been booming during COVID and there could be a decent pop just on fintech hype.

2) This could be a 'picks and shovel' type data/B2B betting software play a la DMYD, or something like e.g. Israel based CRM software Optimove which works with some of biggest online gambling cos and has links to Ashkenazi. This would be interesting but probably not a huge pop

3) Possibly - given Ader's links to Sands - an online gambling tie-up with one of the big Vegas casinos who are desperate to get into the online betting space (see MGM's attempt to buy Entain for $8bn last week). Interestingly, Sands' owner Sheldon Adelson, previously a major opponent of online betting, has just died. Ader predicted a few months ago that Sands would be moving in this direction.

“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.”
“I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source

4) Ader is very confident that Macau will legalise online gambling in next year or two. Sands is big in Macau, the biggest gambling market in the world. A SaaS-type product positioned to capitalise on Asian gambling would be MASSIVE - at present however, China's attitude to gambling and local regulations mean this is unlikely

5) I also wonder if they might try to take legitimate one of the offshore bookmakers with big customer databases and brand recognition but which have been grey-area/illegal under US gaming legislation. For example, Five Dimes recently announced a settlement with the FBI to attempt to transition into newly legalised US markets. This might have the most hype potential

Potential upside
This is entirely a play on management experience and the meme factor / hype around online gambling in the US. I think if they pick a good target - which given their experience and connections seems likely - and get the right publicity and attention from retail investors looking for the next DKNG this could easily 3x and maybe 5-6x if on DKNG-type hype levels.
There is currently little spotlight on this and it is a good time to get in at NAV

Potential Downside

Ader has been vocal that he thinks US online betting is overvalued and in a bubble - why is he starting his own SPAC in the space then? Does he just want to cash in while the hype is at all-time high or does he have a legitimate business goal?
If he just wants to dump a part of Playtech which he does not like onto retail investors, this is a bad deal.
Other targets could be e.g. hotel industry or other leisure sector which would be zero sexiness to retail. Given Ashkenazi and Kaminkow's background this seems unlikely though
Usual SPAC caveats apply about potential difficulty finding a target, locking up your money for unspecified period of time, and the fact I may have completely misread the potential and my above thesis might be totally wrong

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My writing portfolio

Rachel Schneider
ENG 477
Date 1/11/2021
Marsha Blackburn
A Writing Portfolio
I want to write my own fiction stories one day; I have had a book or two swimming around in my head so I will put the computer to good use and get that typed out one of these days. In this instance I chose my 5 stories and even though one is a marketing inquiry I had fun writing it, so here are my things and some background some of them.
Resume: It is a basic one because my photo ones were not particularly good, and this is an honest resume besides the ones I made for class and I did fudge on those.
Cover letter: I made up the cover letter though there is a penguin Books but it is always fun to use your imagination!
Hike with Drew: I got the concept from a Writer’s Digest and entered it into a contes I never got a response but good practice.
Short Story Vegas: Was one I did for another class but in here I changed it and the story was much better the second time.
Marketing Flyer: This was fun to do those are stock photos of the dogs and squeaky toys, but I like Pit Bulls and dog toys are fun as well.
Scott part 1-This is a story I am working on with another writer, warning its very sexy and some naughty words are in there as well.
Writing Samples: I made these three samples up one day because as I have looked for writing work, I have seen people want a sample of your work, so I came up with these.
Rachel
Schneider

3867 Houghton Ave Riverside CA 92501 📷
951-743-8911 📷
[email protected] 📷
Rachel Schneider 📷
Rachel7Tori-Twitter 📷
📷

Objective
To get a career going in the fiction/short story writing industry my imagination can run with any scenario and to write is to live.
📷

Education
Bachelor of Arts in English | Grand Canyon University
2017 – 2021
Took 15 different writing courses, creative writing and even two fun marketing classes all to polish up my craft. Carried a 3.0 GPA and did the courses all online as well.
No Degree Obtained | Riverside Community College
June 1994 – December 1996
Took these college courses but did not finish got 32 Units of Child Development Courses though which is what I was going for
📷

Experience
Cafeteria Worker 1
2008 Currently Employed.
Cook, Prep, serve food in a middle school setting, also clean, count inventory and do next day prep, cash handling and POS register experience.
Bell Ringer | Salvation Army
November 2007 – December 2007
Rang bell and collected donations for the salvation Army in front of various stores during the holiday season.
📷

Skills
Food handlers Card
CPR First Aid certified

Grammar Proficiency
Spelling Proficiency
Can work from home
📷

Activities
Have good use of social media and can help update or bring in new followers with my creative writing side. Have a Reddit account as well with 30 stories up on that site. Can speak a little Spanish and Hebrew as well.
951-743-8911
[email protected]
3867 Houghton Ave Riverside CA 92501

Rachel Schneider

Writer

Penguin Books

Dear JENNIFER MCGREGOR,

1/21/2021
Jennifer McGregor
Fiction Publisher
4587 Tropicana Rd.
Las Vegas NV 89102

I have included my resume for the short story writer for young adult novels. It has been a few years, but I currently work in a middle school, so I do see all the angst and sass that goes with being a young teen. I do hope my writing samples can help me move to the top of the list. I look forward to working with Penguin Books and letting kids know being a teen is hard at first, but it does not last forever.
Sincerely,
Rachel Schneider
Rachel Schneider
3867 Houghton Ave
Riverside CA 92501
It had been a long cold winter Drew and I could not get out for a morning hike till today. Being 75 degrees, we did not have to wear many layers. He is an extremely sweet inquisitive boy who always asks a lot of questions. Why does moss grow on the north side of trees” he asks? Its times like this when it would be nice to have my husband here, but he is overseas where the work is. “well, it’s not just the north side it’s on the shadier side because that is where the moisture is.”
On we went looking at snails on the ground watching the deer pass by along a ridge. Being quiet as to not startle them. “Mom he whispered it’s a bunny den they are coming out for food, he leaves a few carrot and lettuce scraps from last night’s dinner. I walked down the path and spotted some glorious Blue Jays and a Downey Woodpecker. “Listen Drew the woodpecker is getting the bugs out of the trees.” My sweet Drew was staring at the Bunnies, they are cute and fluffy after all. We followed our path down further after the bunnies went back to the den.
The skies were getting cloudy, so I hoped the rain was not going to come back. Though the weather report said there was a chance. My little explorer with his school uniform on was undeterred, I wish I could wear shorts on a 75 day and not be cold, it is always nice to be young. Walking along our path we spot some squirrels running in circles around the tree. “Why do the chase each other like that” Drew asks. “Maybe it’s a game for them like ring around the Rosie.”
On we trek to our favorite stream where the deer family are taking their drinks. I tell Drew we cannot skip stones right now we do not want to scare them. We look through the grass for more of his favorite bugs, saw some worms just below the dirt by a tree. Looking up we see a big spider web being made between two branches. The crows were making their calls in the distance. We are finally able to skip our stones in the stream. He gets some great skips going, and we collect some new rocks for our little garden back home.
Walking past the stream we climb up the embankment and up along the ridge where we see a Fox off in the distance. He or she walks the opposite direction we are going so it is a relief we can continue to the clearing. Where there are more bugs, rocks, and Bunnies. We pass the Deer family as they run up the hill to were, they mostly frolic or maybe they live up there. We stop for a snack of Apples, Almonds, and some cheese sticks. When we were finished Drew put a couple of slices in his pocket to feed the Bunnies, I am sure.
“Mommy we’re getting to the clearing now we can see the Bunnies and the last time Daddy, and I were here I got some neat rocks too.” Drew told ne enthusiastically, I did love his passion for nature, though again my husband is much better at the nature stuff. I am a pastry Chef ask me about desserts and I am your woman, about why moss grows on trees and hello Google. Since Dad is unavailable, I step in and let him explore and see the world outside of the house and off the screen.
It is just another half mile and it is on to the clearing. He starts to pull me hand a little harder I know he is excited. We pass under the tree I glance up and see the Fox again. Then we stop and see “Daddy home……
Name: Rachel Schneider
Course: ENG 361
Date: 4/14/2020
Instructor: Debbie Graves
One Week In Las Vegas
The countdown started Friday at 2pm I got the week off from this thing I call a job (just over broke). The car was packed, it was time to hit the road. The traffic was average and climbing the Cajon Pass was not that bad. I stopped in Baker to have my favorite meal at Bob’s Big Boy, the chili spaghetti, no onions. After making my way back on the highway the traffic picked up going out of Baker, through to Primm and Stateline. I had to stop for gas at Whiskey Pete’s, so I also went in and got some snack goodies. My favorite trail mix and some cheese potato chips because vending machines are too expensive. The road was beckoning so off I went, traveling through Jean is always nice, not much to see. A prison, a few remaining casinos, some outbuildings, and a truck stop. There slogan was always fun 40 smiles closer than Vegas. You can get bored so be sure to pack some music you can have your own car concert. “I’ll face it with a grin I’m never giving in, on with the show” (Show Must Go on by Queen)
Finally, the Vegas skyline is in sight, the lights are not on yet, but they will be needing to navigate around the strip. I do say a few words the terrible drivers. This vacation was so needed my job is crazy, my kids are older now and do not need mom around anymore. Off they went to grandma’s house and I booked the week at the Delano, it is attached to the Mandalay bay so perfect access to all the fun of the strip, and just enough luxury to not look cheap. Getting the valet to take the car I check into my genuinely nice room I have a great view of the Luxor light (that comes off the top of the hotel) and the Excalibur. Now off to indulge in that genuinely nice bathtub and get some overdue reading done. My bathroom with a view has the Luxor light and that is the brightest light on the Vegas strip it comes right out of the top of the Pyramid shaped hotel. A brightness of 42.3 billion candela, you could read a paper from 10 miles straight up if you wanted to.
Once I was well soaked and finished with my chapters it was time to find something to eat besides my snack foods. After cruising the room service options, I settled on some Mexican food of chorizo and eggs with nice corn tortillas. That hit the spot so with the extra energy it was time to get out for a stroll of the property. The indoor pool is nice but small and I want to soak up the sunshine and get some exercise so I shall hit the outdoor pool tomorrow. Back in the lobby I grab those ads for things to do in the city so I can plan out the rest of my trip. There are thousands of things to do in Vegas. Do not be disappointed if you do not get everything done, that is what the next trip is for. I have a beautiful week and I want to have a good time and not have to wait for anybody, I can do what I want. I got those and cruised up through the lobby and toward the casino on my way there I saw a sign for a food and wine festival. With that guy Zac from the travel channel. Thinking hmm I did not know he was interested in food or wine. I went down and found my favorite penny slot game Lucky cat. After 15 minutes I came out putting 20 in and winning 500, so I called it a night and went to the bar to catch a hockey game and grab a fun fruity drink (I like tequila sunrise, (Tequila, grenadine, and cranberry juice). As I am rooting for the Golden Knights (local Vegas hockey team) I looked over to my left and there was Zac from the travel channel, and he likes hockey too this is awesome, and I am trying not to be a fan girl.
The game was in intermission and the Knights were winning so it was time for a new fruity drink so this time I turned around to get back to the bar and bumped right into Zac, boy was my face red. After some apologies and an offer to buy my next fruity drink (a Strawberry Daiquiri) it was a yes and I spilled that I was a fan. He told me he does have an interest in food and wine not just chasing ghosts with his crew. We had some great conversation and when the game came back on, we both sat in the booth cheering the golden knights to their victory. Now I am buzzed and standing up was going to be fun, but Zac was a true gentleman and helped me to my feet. He offered to buy me dinner. The Taco Hut was a good place the tortillas were fresh, and the company was so cool. The conversation turned to food, wine, travel, and some stuff about me. The midnight hour rolled around, and Zac had an early morning, so we said goodnight, but he was staying one floor above me, so we agreed to go to the diner in the lobby for breakfast or brunch. At 10am I was enjoying my company and this great stick to your ribs breakfast (scrambled eggs, sausage, hash browns and some great watermelon) The food offerings in Vegas are so varied you can get everything from a hot dog and beer for 1.99 at the Orleans, to a 5-star meal at Caesar’s Palace the buffets are great too. Although sometimes you want a nice sit-down dinner.
The conversation was effortless the attraction was deep. We made plans to see each other again after the food contest he was judging was over. Saying goodbye was a bit hard but the hand holding was sweet and made me feel like a schoolgirl again. After saying goodbye and I did watch him walk into the convention hall I went back to my room to plan out the rest of my day. I chose a tour of the Mob Museum, they say that Vegas was built with Mob money, but it was a Mormon founded town that later Hollywood discovered. Then many people in Hollywood who were well connected (such as East Coast mobsters) financed Bugsy Segal to build the Flamingo Hotel. As I was putting my shoes on, I got a knock on the room door and as I opened it, I got some flowers (pink roses) and an all-access pass to the food and wine festival courtesy of Zac. Let us just say the Mob Museum can wait for later I got to go to a food and wine festival and spend the rest of the week with Zac. “hi Zac thanks for the flowers it was sweet of you to remember.” He said, “It’s always right to remember a ladies flower preference because that’s the right thing to do.” Smiling the rest of the day I meet other travel channel celebrities and got to taste some great foods and many different wines. The food and wine offerings at the hotels and restaurants are varied, the Las Vegas area have become very international, so the varieties are endless.
The week went by in a blur of food, wine, conversation, and some sweet dates. I never thought I would get over the break-up that happened the week before. Getting a private Vegas tour was something completely special. I did get to see the Mob Museum, Mandalay Bay Fine Art Museum, seven magic mountains, Pinball Hall of fame and a private dinner at the food and wine festival. My days in Vegas were down to one. We had reservations at Rivera right here at the Delano the view is amazing, the food is impressive with Italian and French offers. “I have had a wonderful time this week Zac thank you for mending my broken heart.” He looked at me for a minute and said, “it’s been a pleasure to get to know you and I would not mind visiting your hometown, you always have a reason to come back to Las Vegas. The next food and wine festival is around Christmas, this one will include chocolate.” Hitting the 15 early the next morning I have visions of Christmas, a pass to the food and wine festival, also a brand-new relationship to take back home with me.
The End
When writing a short story, you want to keep it from rambling and have enough details to keep it fresh. When your reader gets into the story you want them to feel like they are there with you, going to the food and wine festival, on that hike through the seven-mountains or touring the mob museum. The details are the thing to see and make sure to watch out for punctuation and common language. An average short story is within 6,00 words or 24 pages. If you wanted too you could go short-short story and that is between 500 and 2,00 words. That comes out to be 6 pages (Minot, Steven Ch. 7 pg. 41), talk about short stories. The story is all your length and style matter as much as how you want it to come into focus.
Minot, Steven and Theil Daniel Three genres the writing of literary pose, poems and plays Ninth edition Pearson Publications 2012
Bouncing Dog Toy Emporium
August 18,2019📷📷
24755 Holly Grove Way
Brookings OR, 97415
Dear Dogs, Rule the World
I am Rachel Schneider from the Bouncing Dog Toy Emporium we make extra bouncy dog toys for our furry friends. We investigated different marketing companies and choose you to do our direct to customer marketing. The way the website is set up the customers can get the product’s directly from you is easier than a multi-level marketing plan. The distribution of Bouncy Dog Toy will be a one level channel, we will provide the toys you market, and we sell them. I would like to get some videos of our company dogs Mac and Stella playing with the toys so you can post on the website. A link for the company can also be included so the consumers know where the toys came from, what they are made of and any other facts about Bouncing Dog Toy Emporium.
Sincerely, Rachel V Schneider
Mac and Stella company dogs and testers 📷
📷 📷📷 📷A sample of our products, our bounciest toys.
Scott’s Story Part 1
I am Scott Thorn, and I am going back to WDU for the first time in 15 years, I went here for a year but after I came out as gay there really were no gay dudes. I am all men but yeah lesbians were all around some BI guys but no real gay dudes. I went back to the mainland and attended Preston University I majored in administration and minored in Literature. I did at one point in my life have a girlfriend and wanted to marry her, but I could not quash the gay lifestyle. That part of my life is over and now the old school offered me a counseling job, have not done this in a while. I get to help students toward there after college career.
I sit here on this boat and keeping an eye on my 75 Triumph I have some nerves, but it is mostly about seeing this place again, so as the boat pulls up, I get my bike going and make a stop at my new on campus apartment. Its west facing because I like sunsets more than sunrise, so I did not know it needed so much work. I have some handy skills but a little at a time. The kitchen is decent and so is the bathroom. The floors will need some polish and the deck needs to be stained, this is a duplex, so I hope the neighbors are quiet. It is furnished and done nicely so I cannot complain too much, but back on the bike to see the Dean.
I get my bike set with the kill switch and walk up the way to the Admin building, I am pretty much the only one dressed. I am wearing my good black jeans and my dress shirt, in my favorite color Maroon. I do remember this place was obsessed with sex so I will stick out wearing clothes, as I enter the building at least more admin people are dressed. Miss Grant the secretary shows me to my new office, its spacious much bigger that my last one at Preston where I shared a cubicle with another person. I have files from past students and current ones, so I started filing them when Dean Kane walks in, booty shorts and a tank top. “Welcome back to WDU Scott, we look forward to seeing you succeed you come very recommended.” I could hardly concentrate because this Dean was hung but I persevered and said, “Thank you sir I look forward to helping young students find there after WDU careers.”
After he left, I had to get my rise to settle then I continued filing and looking through some files. Clarissa Love that was a name that got around even all the way to Preston. I think she does the Jax in the bedroom or something like that. I started looking around and thought I need some life in this office so I asked Miss Grant about decorating and she said I could do what I wanted but no painting, so I went to town and checked out a flea market. I found some pictures of the beaches of Canada, some old homes in the area and a few movie posters from Rocky horror Picture Show (it is my favorite). The flea market said they will deliver to the school tomorrow so I told them I will be there at 9am.
Now with my day done I get to the store to buy some groceries and realize this place uses sextons and I was down to my last few, so now I will need to exchange but thankfully a bank is nearby so I can get some of my mainland money exchanged. I pull up to my new pad off load my few groceries and notice some other tenant left beer in the fridge, talk about luck. I got the beer went to the deck and watched the sunset over the sky. It was going to be new here, but I needed a fresh start after getting dumped and losing the job because my ex was in upper management, never will I do that again. I will find someone who does not work in the school system. After I ate a roast beef and cheddar sandwich for dinner, watched some cooking shows it was time for bed. As I was brushing my teeth, I heard the neighbors having sex. Oh, goody they are not quiet. hope they do not have super energy either. Tomorrow is my first full day and I have decorating to do, fantastic they stopped, that is the thing with us older people we do not fuck like bunnies anymore. As far as I know the neighbors are lesbians so who knows.
Sample 1- If I try my hardest, I could muster up enough courage to ask the prettiest girl in school to prom. I had a suit; bolo tie and I will shine my old boots up. The thing is my courage is not as strong as my best friend Nick, now there is one brave dude who just asked the girl I wanted to go to prom with and of course she said yes. I gather myself close my locker and put on my best smile for them both. Nick and I high five and I hug her, trying to be genuine but it is hard. I head to my Social studies class and sit down next to Megan she looks at me with some concern I tell her what happened, she then asks me to Prom…...
Sample 2-Wishing I did not have to be here I sit at the back of the funeral and think about my old high school principal. I grew up in a small town and everyone knew everyone, we only had one school and you went there for kindergarten through senior year. After my graduation I packed up my old car and headed out to what I thought was the real world. Living in a bigger city only helped spur my loneliness so who says you cannot come home again, well Mom for starters because I abandoned my family, I am not welcome at home ever again (so tired of her drama), so I am staying at Principal Mason’s house yes, the same principal that I am at a funeral for I held her hand as she lay there succumbing to cancer……
Sample 3-If you really want to get over a breakup getting back on the horse will help things along. I thought that too seven lousy dates ago so here I am on date number 8 and I am not seeing any birds singing or rainbows in the sky. He steps away to take a call he is a particularly important lawyer after all (I need to fix my picker) after he comes back, he says it go time the jury has come back so off he goes. I finish my drink and head back to my brownstone close by, I pass the new chocolate shop that just opened, and I get inside and see chocolate heaven. Looking around I do not see him at first but there he is my old college lab partner Sam I just saw a rainbow…….

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the cosmopolitan six thousand five hundred dollar bank the bonus live play tonight last night you guys wanted some mighty cash i found you a mighty cash double up look at those numbers that we're working with same format last night we do 500 tickets however some of my tickets are a thousand bucks they're just easier that way so i'll have to do some uh thinking and uh math but i get kerry here to help me out and i got all my lovely and fans so ticket starts at a thousand dollars so we're not gonna go below 500 guys so this one should be pretty easy max volume bank the bonus live play 13.50 a spin [Music] mighty cash double up let's see this haywire five or more for the bonus [Music] mr classic tv says punky power thank you mr classic tv oh yeah mr classic tv i think you won one of those blenders or um mixers but i need to get your address so send me an email or message me on facebook so i know jimmy d won the other mixer but i'm pretty sure you are the other winner so i want to get that sent out to you yes haywire we got something big oh 45 bucks good ones big one oh i couldn't drop like the maxi because it doubles up [Music] wait there we go [Music] and carrie we trust so we're gonna have him hit the button all right gary [Music] wow that's huge let's keep getting these red ones yes this is not bad red [Music] that wasn't a good spin but if your first two are pretty solid so i forgive you [Music] yolanda rory love you bry mighty cash is the best i love you too yolanda hopefully it will come to new york here soon yeah this is a decent oh yolanda which one do i pick yolanda's picking guys left right middle if yolanda's in here we'll give her a first chance to pick one two or three your left middle right yolanda i'm gonna wait for her i am i'm in plenty of time [Music] i'm a no hurry this is a nice little bonus yolanda gets to pick [Music] leland assistant too all right here it is shoot that's fine all right let's do it anything filled up down there okay extra 13.50 [Music] yes too bad we couldn't fill that up this is not a bad little hit i'll do some ticket math later on because uh i had a thousand dollar ticket but a good start yesterday we started off great and then it went south and if smaller bets work we'll do smaller bets but i am getting some revenge on that 25 cash code it's a jackpot to start the night what do you know [Music] yolanda has no reason to be sorry how's the picture quality everybody we have one person keep saying bad picture but everybody else says [Music] [Music] nothing [Music] all right let me see if i can uh [Music] all right [Music] all right is that good now how does that look perfect all right couple backup spins come on please please please [Music] backup spins galore i saw it go by too all right two thousand dollars will be the ending point [Music] all right first game get a win nice start all right so this ticket guys oh cougar girls 9.99 super justice happy new year all right i reset it i don't know what else to do so i did reset the wi-fi i mean the picture i am at mercy of the casino and romeo evan welcome to the bod rubber ducky club all right guys since um the same ticket so five hundred dollars again i've got these thousand dollar tickets i have to use them twice so the floor is going to be 1500 all right all right 17 16 a spin [Music] that's huge 300 that's good [Music] [Applause] yep i i work with what i have so [Music] maybe it'll get better but i did reset it twice after that i can't do much i apologize but i'm working with what they have but thank you to 800 people watching one more [Music] open this pot 24. [Music] 40 bucks [Music] yes scott i just re-logged into wi-fi for the third time i did reset it and i reset it again so [Applause] [Music] all right before the bonus i'll see if i can fix the wi-fi whoops 73. if you're winning with that well i find it just keep it that way give me one second guys this is my best four games [Music] which one do you guys look all right which one should i pick i've never done this thank you raja what do you guys want [Music] miss mary brian thank you for the live play i really activity oh thank you miss mary [Music] coins [Music] all right coins all coins come on yes oh we're going to do something on the left [Music] chris had patches behind me for me hey one more time i logged out i forgot the network and i logged back in [Music] guys not much i can do guys so the i'm doing the best i can but tell me it's blurry and tell me it's unwatchable and you're gonna unsubscribe above and beyond because i don't control the wi-fi you're gonna unsubscribe from my channel uh i'm not trying to be negative here but don't say crap like that that's just not cool all right guys i'm doing the best i can to give you guys some bonus live play and kyle sell data does not work at all in vegas anyways we got a bonus 776 dollars all right there's some backup spans the floor we'll get 2800 2750 2800 we'll see how it goes and we'll do the top up if we hit it [Music] all right so 27.50 is gonna be the floor so the first thousand in we're gonna have at least 27.50 so that's a great start tonight the pot is a little over 6500 but that's what the tickets i had available was they're gonna make that work but thank you all for tuning in thank you for you know the watching the earlier live play and we got a super chat herbert d brian you're doing fine ignore the complaint all right one more spin and we're gonna cash out so far it's a good little start [Music] all right let's move what do you guys want to see next is my lucky players card [Music] so [Music] those are not multi-dino [Music] yep how you doing yeah i hope so i reset it again it's still really bad i i re-logged in crushing it you hit reconnect i hit reconnect yeah it's still brilliant now all right we're back live all right thank you all right guys garager just help me out it's great usually for a little bit and then it kind of sputters out all right guys how about some konami konami time [Music] [Music] it can go to a hotel you go to hotel next all right and play konami games radiant witch 15 to spin so the floor on this game is gonna be 500. because it's a thousand dollar ticket let's do it guys but thank you all for tuning in hey brian i got a super chat for you one dollar lucky super chat from jose all right usually the usually for a super chat has to be at least 1.99 or higher to say anything doesn't want it we'll try one this is going in the community pot there we go so now you're in action you have a point one tenth of a percentage all right taxi 10 000. yeah we need to go to the other one all right we're gonna try the hotel one all right we're gonna try one more wi-fi guys i apologize all right all right last try guys after this we're just gonna wing it but waffs 73 in bod we trust thank you wasps genomes just keep crushing it all right guys if i missed a super chat then i did do my best doing my best all right here we go it's an iphone 12 pro mac so it should the phone's not the issue here oh i think it was one away from that symbol nice you love silver lucky 25 super super chat flip phone it's a motorola gopro i have no idea come on three or more bonus symbols may trigger the money galaxy feature oh you're not like that okay [Music] we switched the wi-fi network so hopefully guys hopefully this helps it's holding up so we'll take it at this point jose ah i tried [Music] guys it has nothing to do with the camera on the phone it's the wifi [Music] chris pat you're doing great brian of data oh that's my new name brian of data 9150 so i heard you made a killing in the stock market today had a good day you guys haven't checked out raja makes money the mods have been actually posting the link so thank you mod for doing that come on kanami give me some heck yeah [Music] gosh you guys i might have to cancel live play early tonight if i have to keep modding for myself [Music] come on it's due [Music] uh now i get that radiant witch symbol when i don't need it yep once again [Music] well i would go play it and that's that's it that's the 500 mark so [Music] all right let's keep moving on guys [Music] now um somebody specifically told me i should go play high stakes [Music] you know what maybe he'll do some video poker since carrie's here tonight how would you guys want to see some ultimate at the video poker i think that could be fun 1250 spin max that volume out yay or nay on video poker oops stephen hall he requested this game tonight so he got it apple alert for guys tonight 5 30 ah so close 5 30 pacific time you know what i did really good on last night was uh one more that uh i hit those two nice jackpots on uh also environment really i haven't if we went at one more and open up the taco that is like another four i never have like an ultimate fire like played it again last night but the last couple ever since i started playing that another one ultra hot megalink i didn't go to those now they've done these whole shows okay i never liked it because i never got the bonus but now we've got all these great bonuses they're gonna take 5 30 guys the big jackpot will be live on the main facebook page with youtube live play to follow at six o'clock pacific time [Music] yes we got a bonus see what happens when i push the button all right big one here we go carrie go ahead and hit the button carrie terry first lucky raja high rollers i had to mix it up it didn't work for me yesterday all right raja your turn your turn nah all right jose hit the button [Music] okay there we go that's 125 for jose tracy says i feel bbb coming for b.o.d well we believe in b.o.d everybody hit the thumbs up jose you're on the roll ready another 125. you're fired i'm fired i'll come in and save the day all right come on all right you're in all right here we go there you go that's all you guys are worth 25. oh this is 50 cents it's 12 minutes all right carrie you're back in it come on 62.50 jose tagging you back in you're hired again come on that's this is a brd spin oh okay there it is all right same as the raja come on nature just drop it oh really i carry you're back in [Music] all right jose we'll worry about the price of the grand if we come to that all right it comes down to body [Applause] that's something 362. [Music] it is but yours is a lot tighter mine's maybe the spring's gone or something [Applause] [Music] all right backup spins we'll play it down to what 500. how does that sound that sounds great thank you one more sorry he's live right now [Music] ma'am it's 45 dollars i'm sorry that's my gunnery jose my agent told me that all right big congratulations to the quick father he's not going to be with us tonight and right when we got done playing about one o'clock last night went to the room get a good night's sleep at three o'clock he sent me a message he had to get an uber for a five-hour drive back to california he missed his baby being born that's why we picked this date early in the month because baby was due on the 18th so we're like okay two weeks plenty of time you know get home and yeah out of nowhere last night all right guys what do you think we should play next all right autumn moon let's do it ah guys i do not really charge 45 dollars a photo you guys can believe whatever you want this one's due i'm into this game for at least a thousand bucks i get this one two oh the better match yeah no no but this one yesterday all right here we go twenty dollars to spend fifty four hundred dollar major hundred and three thousand dollar grand this is slower than like that first [Music] so the floor is 500 on this game unless we decide to play a second round on it so thousand dollar ticket in the floor come on what whoa no oh i thought you had it oh wow how did you screw that up very easily oh i thought i had it thousands left what happened to that 20 orb what happened to that 20 dollar orb tracy if jose twerks upside down like naomi there will be mega booms wow you've been requesting the twerk upside down [Music] diane mccall says whatever rajo says about you after i fell for the malaria hoax [Laughter] so diane mccall says she doesn't believe anything you say about me after she fell for the malaria hoax when you told everybody i had malaria b.o.d uh brandon true b.o.d ah what what grand did you hit the other day when the raja was live it's probably the same as me having malaria whatever that's worth [Music] it's no minor finally [Music] the good news is i don't have malaria currently but the question is are you going to fall asleep 2 000. i knew this game was due ah yeah come on keeping it alive [Music] now i pumped well over a thousand bucks in this game last night [Music] plus in the group paul we didn't do too well either [Music] [Applause] thousand right [Music] oh here it comes 103 000 live let me at least see it i did not see it i got my glasses on and i don't see it again the drama it's left-handed does it work nope i need to mix it up is that what you do in the bedroom people got jokes today come on [Music] hopefully we keep playing well i can pay off my markers it'll be nice [Music] that's something is that tick-tock tick-tock well i only have one phone unlike some people wow you guys both have one phone wait we got so many girls and tracy d if you don't mind sending me a photos later on of all the jackpots thank you all right so the floor is gonna be three thousand bucks one more moon there's still good line hit john johnson boom boom boom in bod's room that's right [Music] yeah this machine was definitely due after i mean carrie watched me struggle on this game last night i mean struggle one more i knew this game had to do a comeback hi there how you doing today good how are you i'm doing well you can't do recording what did this gentleman tell you i'm spitting fake news again i'm gonna have to call security on you that wouldn't be the first time yeah they called him last time when he had those prostitutes you grabbed his hands on his feet caesar's palace was not a good day remember caesar's palace and that lady i was tracy says i'm waiting jose you got this bee all right cash it out so this yeah so yeah this was a new this was a fresh ticket jimmy beauty on ajita keep it up i got your hoodie in my room during his live play i'll get it for you all right cash cove 25 a spin so the floor is just under 2 500. purple and gold saw it's nice wind keep it up i'm going to purple gold and i got jimmy d there you go all right all right so the floor is like 2 400 and change what doesn't want my ticket i did this yesterday too gaming machine unable to redeem at this time that was weird and it took it cash go 25 to spend cash cove just under 2 400 sorry just under 2 500. come on make up make up for you so 24 in change [Music] 100 dollars get it oh but thank you to all the mods help out thank you to kerry all aboard or luxury line tiffany j beauty great live stream can you play some cats all right we'll do cats after this [Music] no thank you nope i'm doing well not drinking anything so i'm gonna hold off as long as we keep winning i will not have a sip of water the entire livestream i am very superstitious [Music] what did he get nice jose is on ajita as tracy d would say this ticket will be put in the bank after this machine is over that's a great observation [Music] [Music] doesn't want me to quit this game i guess no okay there you go all right couple more spins not gonna go below 2400 come on come on all right final spin on this game cash an hour all right all right so that i think it's done all right we're gonna put another thousand dollar ticket in so once again the floor is gonna be um 500 bucks i didn't have to didn't have time to break down the tickets cats here it is somebody wanted cats to send a super chat and i haven't done cats in a while so [Music] 15 to spin [Music] yes that's it i thought it looked it looked a lot better in my mind sometimes the lower bets work better that's a pay line on 15. oh fine don't have to convince me it looks like if i'm a game manufacturer i'm making 15 lines that's not one of mine [Music] yeah of all the games being different heights different angles it's not always the easiest sometimes to uh that's it fifteen all right 30 that's fine 30 bucks on cats ah 200 nice [Music] come on bank the bonus that's good huh 400. nice [Music] that's right johnny milwaukee loves all the games that have cats in it kitty glitter miss kitty [Music] bonus [Music] [Music] what do you think should i play 45 a spin on catch or keep it here at 30. 500 is the floor we're going for that bonus oh yeah 250. i'll tell you what we'll do actually choose the max you can only play 30 bucks so by default oh bonus nope no nope gina anyway can you play black widow uh maybe you'll do some black widow i'll tell you what since we're doing well in the game we'll i don't want to lose any money on this game so we'll set the floor in a thousand bucks so we guarantee we don't lose any money playing cats [Music] i hate to do well in the machine and go broke trying to hit the bonus so [Music] come on okay 200 just for that [Music] and if we break the two 2000 mark maybe he'll set a floor above that come on full screen say meow i likey [Music] so if the raja ever tells you something about me 95 of the time it's not true he said you were an awesome individual b.o.d yep see told you now he knows better than joke about my dogs so oh yeah that's like the one thing he knows so if he says something about my dogs that may be true but besides that i never had malaria [Music] what's not a pay line but this jagged thing is that's bs hey ben hello [Music] don't get called on me kitty cats [Music] all right um is black widow on here all right this game's getting cold i'm going to use this extra 186 dollars for black widow so the forum black widow's still going to be 500. i so whatever that's worth executive vod decision [Music] forty dollars to spend on black widow [Music] the floor is at 500 on the game he's taking some of that extra money [Music] all right a black widow floor is five hundred dollars oh there's yep i that's a lot of people say i look like the purple guy in black widow they're the pink guy does that look like b.o.d what do you guys think i think it is they modeled it after me maybe that's right the raja this is his favorite game because he gets to see me all the time [Music] wow cheryl clark blackwidow be nice to b.o.d thank you we don't think we had a single playback of anything on black widow yet [Music] not a single does black widow hate b.o.d looks like ben affleck oh there we go on the last spin it pays 160 says don't quit on me [Music] ah mark wahlberg all right final spin and we're putting this ticket in the bank for cats and black widow so cats and black widow is done now i did play some um dancing drums earlier today and i got killed 2 000 down on dancing drums so based on that it's dancing drums revenge [Music] time [Music] yeah i saw my afternoon live play we did play some dancing drums so what do i got left 500 500 500 000 so 6500 in tickets i have 2500 left let's just make it easy to put a 500 ticket here so once again guys i had to get some thousand dollar tickets i couldn't get the 500 so that's why we used some tickets twice 1760 a bet and we're going for three if we get it we're going for three the last three games we haven't done anything so we're due for another bonus here jimbo come on drums let's see a bonus i agree timbo so the mini's at 178 miners 626 that seems awfully high you son of a yeah majors at 9 000 yeah we're going for three because that's what i said all right here we go all right big money there we go that's it [Music] yes oh one more dragon that helped 120 yeah 360. [Music] all right 660 dollar bonus [Music] all right we're gonna play some more uh like 750 floor on this game we need some backup spins let's get another bonus [Music] you know screw it we'll do the mystery if we get it again that sounds fine with me mystery if we get another bonus i just hit five drums [Music] all right final spin unless we hit something um [Music] all right whoops says uh [Music] top dollar let's do it [Music] a lot of people like the double top dollar [Music] yeah 210 dollars to spend sorry 10 dollars a credit 20 [Music] we've been doing better on the lower d knobs right now so [Music] she says always double she's an expert so yeah 10's on there i'm putting a thousand dollar ticket in so the floor will be 500. [Music] so it's 20 dollars yes we did some higher spins earlier going backwards still good slide play [Music] carla howard says good luck tonight hashtag bonus time hope you're staying warm up there [Music] carla [Music] oh [Music] [Music] is my card working all right let's see this top dollar logo [Music] so close there we go [Music] almost 2 000 people watching thank you guys for tuning in tonight make the bonus live play from the cosmopolitan las vegas hit that subscribe button keep notifications on because sometimes i do surprise live play like this morning last spin [Music] and i did some like hundred dollar huffing puff this morning all right let's move on to some pinball [Music] two credit pinball we'll do 20 to spin on this too yes we'll do the video poker [Music] let's set pinball yeah uh these old school pinballs you can't see them anymore you don't find them much all the casinos that have them do not get rid of them looks like the new pinball they have it's a little different format 20 to spin so with a three credit pinball you get five shots with two credit pinball you get four [Music] that was 250 okay give this some more ammo to hit this pinball come on come on [Music] ah so close we have 1500 left after this the big jackpot will be live at 5 30 pacific time so [Music] and maybe i'll do some surprise late night live play tonight you never know that's why you have to subscribe and click those notifications on if i do like it yeah yeah it's something i was waiting for like yeah eight grand i'm like my like time just kind of stopped okay for me i'm like is it gonna happen [Music] it is what time what time is it carrie right now i think about five o'clock or so so it's 4 45 yes there we go uh i think i'm gonna keep the ten dollar genome it's working i hate to blow through everything on the twenty five dollar d numb we ain't broke i rather win a little bit of money on a smaller bet than lose more money on a larger bet [Music] yeah maybe some we'll see late no promises i did a surprise live play this afternoon [Music] and it's not a surprise if i tell you happy new year b.o.d and good luck well thank you sonny happy new year to you come on pinball get a couple decent line hips golden nugget that's a casino we're at the cosmopolitan is there a game called golden nugget oh yeah [Music] what was your biggest hit um nice on 15 bets yeah can't beat that [Music] i know where a wild wild nugget is but um some guy last night kept saying wild wild nugget the whole time and it really gave me bad juju and we lost so no wild wild nugget tonight i'm not a fan of that game anyways but we got a come on bonus 80. okay 250 it's a good start come on 80 80 no 500 bucks come on 80 80. [Music] [Applause] all right we're at 8 40. like 7 60 something like that get it five back upstairs legit whoops taught me so my final spin okay cash now [Music] 1500 left [Music] carrie and i gonna play some video poker for five thirty dollars to spin ultimate x video poker scary carry and body now beauty is gonna make the best choices oh thank you for that i'll do the best i can i got carrie here so we'll [Music] oh i didn't sorry i was um live when you texted me oh you're fine [Music] thank you thank you do you want a cosmopolitan no no no hold nothing or yeah all right oh so i was playing this earlier i got dealt four to the royal correct carry yeah i got dealt four to the royal i had a four-time multiplier up top or something and of course i did not hit it we'll be back to slots after this open ender all right seven queens [Music] maybe i should have held the aces michael alphonse in the house check out live stream casino shenanigans on facebook featuring michael halphon nothing all right the no holds barred anything goes facebook gambling drinking debauchery group sanders lodge shared the length thank you okay in order here we go oh come on give us something here come on [Music] all right here we go four to the flush let's hit this yeah look at the next all right come on four of a kind wherever oh come on oh come on top here okay guys all right come on could be eight thousand dollars it could be all right here we go a little dramatic pause come on twenty thousand dollars here it comes [Music] oh man yep yeah i got del four to the royal with the multiplier i had a couple good deals today [Music] here we go [Music] all right here we go come on four of a kind four of a kind king queen [Music] hey quads there we go oh cheers that's why i got somebody else here [Music] maybe if i do a late night it'd be all video poker live stream it's a possibility if anybody wants to do a video poker with me tonight maybe i'm going for it oh you just look at it [Music] okay so it's open ender too yeah so you need a two or seven eclipse [Music] there we go [Applause] 2500 [Music] all right [Music] nice all right so we're at 28 10. i'll probably play down 2 500 or so yeah um come on here it comes guys let's play for a miracle carry i'm good right yeah ah tyler smith the b.o.d for president carrie lee for vp i like it okay let's do it again come on four of a kind [Music] [Music] [Music] yes sir oh come on four aces come on [Music] [Music] okay that's right it's lacey from the slot ladies the one and only will she go live tonight i don't know if you guys want to send her money on only fans i think she may go live again tonight but hopefully is that how you send people money oh yeah so if you check out lacey's instagram and tracyd or whoever has it share it in the chat and on instagram they have your cash app in there so if somebody wants to send lacey 100 bucks or she gets up to 500 tonight i think she may go live again [Music] oh somebody sent you 100 you just need 400 more all right that sounds fair and whoever sends the most money can pick the game [Music] it'd probably be after the big jackpot tonight probably directly after before the group poll [Music] it actually was good she told me my left arm was sore because my right arm was tight [Music] yeah i had the hundred minute in the end well worth it eight times there we go anything i have a mask on my braces oh there we go can we get the flush can we get a flush ah yeah that's a good way to end it positive money and tracy d thank you mod tracy just shared lacey's instagram so just to confirm her cash app is linked in the buy over instagram right yeah all right so if she gets 500 tonight 400 more she will be going live [Music] am i down only 500 left yeah i guess i'm only at 500 left tonight wow i thought it had more oh yeah we had the thousand between those two machines right so what do we want to do for the last so let me think about schmidt i put 500 in there 500 here okay we all know what's going to happen last guys 25 spins huff and puff [Music] that's right guys huff and puff to end the night and wild wild nugget is being played i was going to end it tonight in a wild wild nugget but some gentleman is playing it so i can't do that yep 25 spins we're doing well we're gonna do 25 spins we did it yesterday for a thousand bucks we couldn't hit so maybe it's due that that logic worked on the uh what game did the logic were gone oh autumn moon we lost yesterday all right here we go 25 spins huff and puff let's do it um yeah maybe some late night live play i'll talk to some people and figure out a game plan there's no promises [Music] well i got some money to throw in the pot it could be video poker who knows two more yeah yeah there we go by the way we're gonna end it we got backup spins all right i'm excited yesterday was terrible today is much much better one more oops man i didn't mean to do that [Music] oh come on don't be like that it is going to be like that we got backup spin so there's one point we just want a coin [Music] ouch and the actual three games only played seven dollars and fifty cents it was bad [Music] 500 bucks will be the floor [Music] thank you that was not a good bonus nope nope nope [Music] come on the volume is maxed out that is not the issue what are you gonna do one more spin to end the night on bank the bonus live play i don't i would like to play it through but i don't know if that's fair because everybody has to agree on it so based on that um i'm okay thank you though so but guys thank you so much on behalf of b.o.d scary carrie and lacey we will see you soon remember check her out on instagram camera's on you just let you know oh hi taking my these are not i can't walk in them so i'm switching all right so check her out on instagram if she gets 500 today she's going live and you pick the game if you're the highest donor and also check her out on only fans so all right guys thanks to glot and i will see you guys later on maybe late night tonight bye

NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020

We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them.
Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now.

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1. Arizona Cardinals

Why they can win the division:
Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other.

Why they could finish last again:
Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league.

Bottom line:
I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020.

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2. Detroit Lions

Why they can win the division:
Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough.

Why they could finish last again:
Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive.

Bottom line:
I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark.

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3. Miami Dolphins

Why they can win the division:
When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game.

Why they could finish last again:
As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams.

Bottom line:
As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here.

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4. Los Angeles Chargers

Why they can win the division:
First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room.

Why they could finish last again:
I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy.

Bottom line:
In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division.

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5. Washington Redskins

Why they can win the division:
These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game.

Why they could finish last again:
Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you.

Bottom line:
These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently.

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6. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why they can win the division:
I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November.

Why they could finish last again:
I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period.

Bottom line:
The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now.

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7. Carolina Panthers

Why they can win the division:
Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7.

Why they could finish last again:
Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season.

Bottom line:
The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center.

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8. Cincinnati Bengals

Why they can win the division:
We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates.

Why they could finish last again:
As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year.

Bottom line:
I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air.

If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU

2020 Offseason Review Series - Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns

Division: AFC North
Record: 6 - 10
Introduction
Hey everyone u/goingsouthhiker here to provide you more information than you ever wanted to know about the Cleveland Browns. My first distinct memory as a child is my fathers face in stunned silence as Ernest Byner fumbled at the goaline. I have been gifted through some sick hereditary defect a lifelong love of the Browns. so here you go.

Coaching Changes/GM Changes

Freddie Kitchens Fired
On December 29th, 2019, the Browns fired head coach Freddie Kitchens. This is the culmination of a coaching hire that seemed to be entirely based upon folksy blue collar catch phrases “if you don’t wear brown and orange, you don’t matter” and a good relationship with Baker Mayfield.
Some of Freddie's greatest hits included

4th and 9 - Draw Play
Madden Style 5 WR streaks from your own goal line
Send out the punt team on 4th-and-11 down 17 points in the fourth quarter to the New England Patriots, only to change his mind and take a deliberate false start rather than burn a timeout.
4th and 1 on the goal line and not have Nick Chubb on the field

John Dorsey Fired
On December 31st, 2019, the Browns and general manager John Dorsey mutually agreed to part ways after an up and down tenure that brought in a lot of talent but ultimately the decision to hire Kitchens and some questionable high draft picks sank him.

Kevin Stefanski Hired
On January 13th, 2020, the Browns hired former Minnesota Vikings' offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski as head coach. This is another first time head coach hire for the browns after an exhaustive coaching search. This hire is the one Paul Depodesta of Moneyball Fame banged the table for prior to the promotion of Kitchens so ultimately the nerds won the battle a year too late.

Andrew Berry Hired
On January 27th, 2020, the Browns hired former Philadelphia Eagles' vice president of football operations Andrew Berry as general manager. Berry previously served as the Browns' vice president of player personnel from 2016–18 under Sashi Brown. At age 32, Berry became the youngest general manager in NFL history.
Berry has been considered in league circles as the next great rising front office star even from his early days in Indianapolis. Ivy league educated and an analytics darling now paired again with Depodesta the Browns will be heavy into analytics and efficiency in their decision making.

Alex Van Pelt Hired
On January 29th 2020, the Browns hired former Cincinnati Bengals' quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt as offensive coordinator. Van Pelt, who served as offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills in 2009, replaced Todd Monken, who was not retained by Stefanski.
Nobody is quite sure who will be calling plays on game day, The one thing going for this hire is when Van Pelt was the QB Coach for Green Bay Aaron Rodgers was super angry about Van Pelt being fired so there is that.

Joe Woods Hired
On February 7th 2020, the Browns hired former San Francisco 49ers' defensive backs coach Joe Woods as defensive coordinator. Woods, who previously served as the defensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos from 2017–18, replaced Steve Wilks, who was not retained by Stefanski
Woods is a man of mystery he has coached just about every scheme in existence and has given the ever popular "We will tailor our defense to our personnel" answer every time somebody tries to get anything out of him in regards to what he plans to run in Cleveland.

Free Agency
Players lost/cut

Player	Position	New Team
Joe Schobert	LB	Jacksonville
Christian Kirksey	LB	Green Bay
Eric Kush	G	Las Vegas
Demetrius Harris	TE	Chicago
T.J. Carrie	CB	Indianapolis
Damarious Randall	S	Las Vegas
Greg Robinson	T	Prison
Rickey Seals Jones	TE	Kansas City
Adarius Taylor	LB	Released
Morgan Burnett	S	Released
Eric Murray	S	Houston

Going into the 2019 season the Browns defense had a lack of quality depth at LB and Safety. So naturally the first thing the Browns do in Free Agency is let go the remaining veteran players at LB and Safety. I can't say for certain this was a bad thing as you will see below.

Top Losses

Joe Shobert LB - Was a tackling machine and rare pro bowler on this team, however too many of those tackles were made 8-10 yards downfield on run plays. His coverage skills were raw as well so I get not paying him big money.
Christian Kirksey LB - This one hurts a bit not due to production on the field as Kirko was hurt a lot! But more so as he was that beloved master of the Dawg Check and was a great team guy.
Damarious Randall S - A solid player who the Browns converted back to Safety but was always a bit of a headcase. He will be remembered best as the player who intercepted a Bengals pass and handed the ball to Hue Jackson on the Bengals sideline.

Players Signed/Brought Back

Player	Position	Contract
Kareem Hunt	RB	1yr $3.25M
Case Keenum	QB	3yr $18M
Andy Janovich	FB	Trade w/Broncos
Jack Conklin	T	3yr $42M
Austin Hooper	TE	4yr $44M
Karl Joseph	S	1yr $2.5M
Andrew Billings	DL	1yr $3.5M
Kevin Johnson	CB	1yr $3.5M
Andrew Sendejo	S	1yr $2.5M
Evan Brown	C	No Details
Donovan Olumba	CB	No Details
JoJo Natson	WR	1yr $1M
BJ Goodson	LB	1yr $2.4M
Chris Hubbard	T	Restructured
Adrian Clayborn	EDGE	1yr $2.4M
Olivier Vernon	EDGE	Restructured
Myles Garrett	EDGE	So Much Money
Rashard Higgins	WR	1yr 910k

Man this is a list... Ok so there were very few holes on Offense going into Free Agency but the ones that stood out were both tackles and depth at tight end. The Browns ultimately solved one tackle spot and TE really early in Free Agency with what most considered the best available players at their position.
On the Defensive side we had a open call for any experienced body who wanted to take a 1 year prove it deal. So much depth added via players that fell through the cracks on their former team.

Top Signings

Jack Conklin RT - The top right tackle in free agency, had a nice season for the titans after coming off a major injury the year before. Can be a All-Pro caliber RT if healthy. Really filled a huge need.
Austin Hooper TE - or "HooooooP" As the falcons fans tell me I am to call him. Filled a big need for reliable catches at the TE position. With David Njoku in the dog house, unable to catch anything, and now asking for a trade this is a big get for the Browns.
Andy Janovich FB - By far my personal favorite signing. Acquired in a trade with the Broncos he is one of the best pure Fullbacks left in the game. I expect him to be a Fan Favorite quickly. There is nothing more that Cleveland Fans adore than elevating a former Broncos fullback to Legendary status.(See Peyton Hillis)
Case Keenum - Browns fans all hope that the Baker Mayfield of last year was a product of really bad coaching, however Keenum can win games in the NFL and is a familiar face to new coach Stefanski having had a career year with Minnesota with Stefanski as his QB coach. I am much more confident in having Keenum as the backup than Garrett Gilbert.
New Contracts - The Browns have ensured Myles Garrett will be a Brown for a long while, placed a 2nd round tender on former rushing champ Kareem hunt, and after briefly flirting with Clowney decided to restructure Olivier Vernon to a much better contract number befitting his oft injured yet surprisingly productive season.

Draft - Cribbed from u/Marzman315 with permission who did a very excellent defending the draft and I agree with it in it's entirety. The Grades are mine.

Round	Player	Position
1.10	Jedrick Wills	T
2.44	Grant Delpit	S
3.88	Jordan Elliott	DT
3.97	Jacob Phillips	ILB
4.115	Harrison Bryant	TE
5.160	Nick Harris	C
6.187	Donovan Peoples-Jones	WR

1.10 - Jedrick Wills Jr., Offensive Tackle Alabama Grade A
As expected, the Browns used the tenth overall pick on a tackle. The tackle turned out to be Jedrick Wills Jr., blindside blocker for Tua Tagovailoa. The former four star high school prospect started all 28 games for the Crimson Tide over his sophomore and and junior years. As a second team All-American and first team All-SEC player, he paved the way for Alabama's elite offense with his quick feet, smooth redirection, extremely powerful anchor and strength, and absolutely punishing punch.
This pick was overwhelmingly approved of by analysts both internally and externally. Joe Thomas released a reaction video that was enthusiastic to say the least. He made it clear that Wills was his ideal target for the Browns at 10th overall. The front office and coaching staff made it known that Wills was their priority target going into the draft, and were entertaining the possibility of trading up for him, but ultimately the draft board fell their way and they got their man at 10.
The only negative to the drafting of Wills is that he has only played right tackle in his college career, and given the free agent signing of right tackle Jack Conklin, Wills is going to be expected to transition to left tackle to start his NFL career. Joe Thomas also gave input on this, and stated that while the transition is difficult it is easier to do early in your career, and that he would personally take Wills under his wing and mentor him. Between Joe Thomas's guidance and the coaching of veteran offensive line coach Bill Callahan, not to mention the phenomenal talent of Wills, the transition should be doable for Wills with a minimum of serious difficulty. The protection of franchise QB Baker Mayfield is of paramount importance, and this selection reflects that.

2.44 - Grant Delpit, Safety LSU Grade A
Most Browns fans anticipated that a safety specializing in coverage would be a priority target on day 2. With replacing Damarious Randall a necessity, the Browns zeroed in on LSU standout Grant Delpit. Boasting phenomenal range, excellent ball skills, and tremendous athleticism for the position, he brings an impressive skill set to the team.
Once considered a top 15 to top 20 pick, injuries and questions about tackling caused his value to drop a bit over the season. His broken clavicle in 2018 likely led to a hesitation in committing fully to tackles, and his production in that sense dropped in 2019. Despite some questions about open field tackling, Delpit's football IQ, versatility, and ball skills are enough to excite Browns fans into thinking that they found a solid starter.

3.88 - Jordan Elliot, Defensive Tackle Missouri Grade B
In a post draft interview, Browns Chief Strategist Paul DePodesta revealed that obtaining 2021 draft capital was a priority coming into the draft. Depth along the defensive line has been an issue for the Browns for some time. Both of these issues were addressed with the Browns first pick in the third round.
Jordan Elliot is well known in the scouting community for being the darling prospect of Pro Football Focus, who consistently rated him as a first round prospect. While he lacks some power and length, he has a lightning quick first step and fluid pass rushing skills. His skill set doesn't exactly project him to be an every down player, but he can be a strong gap penetrating 3T rotating along the Browns defensive line.

3.97 - Jacob Phillips, Linebacker LSU Grade C Minus
Joe Shobert led the Browns in tackles in two of the last three seasons. Replacing that production was certainly a concern of the Browns. Phillips is an athletic linebacker that led a powerhouse LSU team in tackles. He is strong against the run, and plays fast and strong with solid instincts.
Phillips likely may not replace Shobert's pass coverage, as coverage skills were a clear negative on Phillips' scouting report. But as far as reliable tackling goes Phillips can contribute early, especially on special teams and base defense.

4.115 - Harrison Bryant, Tight End Florida Atlantic Grade A
Kevin Stefanski's offense notably uses multiple tight end sets and 12 personnel. Harrison Bryant is a very exciting receiving threat at the TE position. He projects mainly as a depth player behind Austin Hooper and David Njoku (if he remains on the team) currently while he develops his overall game, but he likely sees the field a bit as a rookie. He doesn't bring much to the table as far as blocking goes, but there is absolutely some exciting upside here.

5.160 - Nick Harris, Guard/Center Washington Grade C
While the Browns O-line was the subject of well deserved criticisms in 2019, the interior of the line was quietly fairly solid. Left guard Joel Bitonio is among the best in the league at his position and Center JC Tretter is a pro bowl caliber player. Wyatt Teller was unspectacular but played well enough to bring a bit of stability to the position. Lacking at the interior o-line was any sort of depth.
With years of experience at guard and center, Nick Harris will add solid depth and may compete with Teller for the starting right guard spot. He is a smart and nimble pass blocker, and while he doesn't have ideal size for the position (6'1" 300 LB) he uses his low center of gravity effectively to secure a solid base.

6.187 - Donovan Peoples-Jones, Wide Receiver Michigan Grade A (upside)
Wide receiver was sneakily a bit of a need for the Browns going into the 2020 draft. Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry are among the best 1/2 starters in the NFL, but after them the depth chart is thin.
Peoples-Jones is a perfect prospect to gamble on. He showed flashes of phenomenal play while at Michigan, and was considered at one point to be a future first round pick and NFL star. Injuries and abysmal QB play severely hindered his college career. His production did not come close to matching his talent. He is athletic, runs clean routes, gets solid separation, and is good with the ball in his hands. There is a lot of talent here that can be developed.

Undrafted Free Agents:
Soloman Ajayi, Linebacker, Liberty
Elijah Benton, Safety, Liberty
Ja'Marcus Bradley, Wide Receiver, Louisiana
Tony Brown, Wide Receiver, Colorado
Kevin Davidson, Quarterback, Princeton
Drake Dorbeck, Offensive Tackle/Guard, Southern Mississippi
A.J. Green, Cornerback, Oklahoma State
Brian Herrion, Runningback, Georgia
Jameson Houston, Cornerback, Baylor
Benny LeMay, Runningback, Charlotte
Jovante Moffit, Safety, Middle Tennessee
George Obinna, Defensive End, Sacremento State
Alex Taylor, Offensive Tackle, South Carolina State
Jeffrey Whatley, Defensive Tackle, South Alabama
Nate Wieting, Tight End, Iowa

Going Forward:
You will have a hard time finding a Browns fan who did not love this draft. They filled all of their pressing needs without reaching, were savvy navigating the board with trades, and acquired 2021 draft picks. The Browns earned one of only four A+ grades from PFF. While the roster is not without some holes, particularly at linebacker, this is a team that is built to compete. With improvements on the offense that will hopefully come with better coaching and a brand new O-line, the Browns are absolutely in a better position this year than last

Projected 53 Man Roster (starters in bold):
OFFENSE:
QB - Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum (2)
RB - Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Dontrelle Hilliard, (5)
FB - Andy Janovich (6)
WR - Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Taywan Taylor, Donovan Peoples-Jones, JoJo Natson (12)
TE - Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Harrison Bryant (15)
OT - Jedrick Wills Jr. (LT), Jack Conklin (RT), Chris Hubbard, Drew Forbes (19)
OG - Joel Bitonio (LG), Wyatt Teller (RG), Colby Gossett (22)
C - JC Tretter, Nick Harris (24)

DEFENSE:
DE - Myles Garrett, Olivier Vernon, Adrian Clayborn, Chad Thomas (28)
DT - Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, Andrew Billings, Jordan Elliot, Daniel Ekuale (33)
LB - Mack Wilson, Sione Takitaki, BJ Goodson, Jacob Phillips, Jermaine Grace, Tae Davis (39)
CB - Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, Kevin Johnson, Terrance Mitchell, Donnie Lewis Jr., Tavierre Thomas (45)
SS - Karl Joseph, J.T. Hassell (47)
FS - Grant Delpit, Andrew Sandejo, Sheldrick Redwine (50)
SPECIALISTS
K - Austin Seibert (51)
P - Jamie "Scottish Hammer" Gillan (52)
LS - Charley Hughlett (53)

What to expect in 2020

QB Grade: Incomplete
Baker Mayfield - This is the wildcard for the entire team. There is arguably not a better supporting cast in the league for a Quarterback. Assuming at minimum competent coaching there is no excuse for Mayfield going into year 3. There will be a long leash I am sure but Keenum is waiting in the wings if Mayfield looks like he did last year as opposed to the record setter he was in year 1.
As goes the arm of Mayfield so goes the Browns Playoff hopes.

RB Grade: A+++
Nick Chubb - Quiet, professional, will run you over and laugh at your pitiful tackle attempts. Nick Chubb is a beast, lead the league in yards after contact and nearly won the rushing title. In this new RB friendly system with an improved O-Line and an actual fullback Chubb is going to eat.

Kareem Hunt - It's not often that your backup running back is also a league rushing champion. Last year after serving his suspension he came in and made quite a few spectacular plays in the passing game and showed he still had that spark in the running game. This one Two punch is going to be fun to watch!

Pass Catchers WTE Grade: A
Goodness where to start... This might be an unpopular take but Jarvis Landry is the Best WR on this team and a top 5 pass catcher in the league. He has the most catches ALL TIME in a players first 6 seasons in the league. No longer relegated to slot duties as he was in Miami he had is best year in 2019.

Both Landry and OBJ went over 1000 yards last year which is stunning to me because it felt like both were under utilized all year long. With an increased emphasis on the running game and a deceptive scheme there should be a lot of wide open receivers for the Browns this year
Adding in a third down catch machine in Austin Hooper oh my.. The room is stacked.

Offensive Line Grade: B Minus
The OL has been a major issue at the tackle spot since Joe Thomas retired. It now feels like the Browns have the complete package assuming Wills can make the transition to LT in this super strange offseason. The interior is still super solid. There will be a lot riding on the rookie.

Defensive Line A Minus
Oh noooooo MYLES!!!! How different would 2019 have been had Myles Garrett kept his cool. Fresh off signing a new mega deal Myles Garrett needs to be the great pass rusher he has been in his first few seasons. He was averaging a sack per game before the suspension and should easily go into double digit sacks this season as well.
Olivier Vernon when healthy is a QB pressure machine but he has problems staying on the field. When he is playing though He and Myles make a great bookend.
The interior is solid with Sheldon Richardson and Larry O, in the middle. This will probably be Richardson's last year with the Browns so I expect him to show out to push for that one last contract.

Linebackers Grade: I was told there would be no math
Do I believe in Mack Wilson? Ask me on a day he writes a fired up hype tweet and I will say he is going to be a stud. In the quiet times though I think to myself boy I hope the opposing team does not have a decent tight end because our LB core is going to get burned. I don't know what to think of the rest of the room as it is totally shuffled. Maybe Takitaki is something more than a special teamer? Was B.J. Goodson a diamond waiting to be polished?
The Browns need Takitaki, Wilson, and Phillips to grow up fast in this defense. Goodson has been a part-time player in his career and should have the opportunity to get more playing time than he has had to date in his career. With a one-year prove-it deal, Goodson has the motivation to show that he deserves a multi-year deal.
This is by far on paper the weak point of this team.

Cornerback Grade: B
This is the Ward and Greedy Show. Ward is occasionally dinged up but most of the time he is a shut down corner. Super young and is a willing tackler if a bit reckless in his form. Ward has the potential to be a top 5 CB in the league.
Greedy Williams had a decent season on the other side when he got into the game but it is his spot full time now and he needs to step up. The talk when he was drafted was he could not tackle. (Much like Delpit this year) but he showed he was more than willing to tackle and even come up and rush the passer and play the run when needed. With Ward on the other side he is going to be targeted a LOT.

Safety Grade: D
Who the hell knows.. Really. I know I said that Linebacker was the weak point but man Safety is as much of a question. Karl Joseph is a Thumper and with that he ends up injured a bit. Delpit has huge potential but is a rookie at FS and supposedly has tackling issues. Outside of those two you have Sendejo in his 11th year in the league and Sheldrick Redwine who was a beast in college but has yet to really prove himself in the league.
Here is hoping Delpit lives up to his potential because man this is a thin group.

Specialists Grade: B
Scottish Hammer That is all... The Punter might be the best form tackler on the team hopefully he does not have to do that this season. Or we can stick him in at Linebacker.
But seriously things stabilized with two rookie kickers last year and they both look serviceable. Jojo Natson was brought in to do one thing and that is to return kicks.

Training Camp Battles

On Offense there is very little up for grabs maybe who wins the 3rd WR spot but given Higgins relationship with Mayfield it is his job to lose.
On Defense a lot of the battle is going to be who shows up at LB and Safety as discussed above. there are slim pickings at both positions and really the only people who seem to be safe are Mack Wilson just due to the playing time he got last season and Karl Joseph just based upon his experience in the league.

Scheme Descriptions

Offense: Kevin Stefanski as Minnesota’s offensive coordinator in 2019 produced an offense determined to run the ball and crush teams with play-action. Under the watchful eye of consultant Gary Kubiak he installed a Wide Zone blocking scheme that is time tested and very OL and RB friendly. It is considered a Run first offense which should play right into the Browns strengths. If Mayfield can tighten up the play action fake game the Wide outs should feast as well.

Defense - Who knows? I am not even sure Joe Woods knows yet what type of Defense the Browns will run. During his tenure as the Denver Broncos defensive coordinator he ran a Base 3-4 Under defense. During his time with the Minnesota Vikings the team ran a base 4-3 which is also the case for the San Francisco 49ers defense this past season.
When asked Woods usually replies with something along the lines of "it's a secret"
Based on the Browns current roster,the preference would be an attacking 4-3 scheme given the strength on the defensive line and questionable linebacker core.

Season Predictions
It is an impossible task to predict a Browns season. Typically you could say 3 - 5 wins and chances are you would be right. This season with a new head coach, no preseason, maybe no training camp who the hell knows. It is a weak schedule on paper.
So instead of going game by game I am going to make some bold predictions.

The Browns will make the playoffs
Nick Chubb will win the rushing title
Jarvis Landry and OBJ will both go over 1000 yards again
The Browns will split all of the division games
The Steelers, Ravens, and Art Modell still suck
Final Record 10-6 with a Wild Card game win

Thank You's and Final Thoughts
If you read all this you are a better person than I. Big thanks to u/Marzman315 for lending me the draft section. Also a hearty Woof Woof to u/Usuallyrelevant who keeps us entertained over at Browns
Also the crew at LakeErieBros for sharing together our collective misery.
And finally I want to thank the Bull City Browns Backers in Durham NC for being awesome and showing up to every game with hope in your heart and unwavering dedication.

I did not hear from the non fan for the post so maybe we can add it later.

Link To Hub

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