NFL Futures: Pro Football Future & Super Bowl Betting Odds

bovada nfl mvp futures

bovada nfl mvp futures - win

Stafford moves to T-3rd in Bovada's MVP odds after week 1

Bovada MVP odds according to OddShark.com has Stafford at +1000 after week 1. Tied with Derek Carr behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Stafford was +5000 and tied for 15th with many other players back in June.
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[Table] IAmA: I am Pat Morrow, the head NFL Oddsmaker at Bovada AMA!

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Date: 2014-09-04
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Questions Answers
I saw a comment in /nfl yesterday which suggested that your MVP odds are based not only on the actual odds of the player winning, but on the amount of money that is being bet (which was their explanation for why a guy like Manziel even has odds in the first place.) Part of the fun in posting odds like these across any sport is having to follow the opinion of crotchety sportswriters talk about why they may vote for a player because he "plays the game the right away". Goodness.
I'm an avid gambler and I always wanted to work in sports gambling- how did you get in your position? I kind of fell into it. I had been wagering on sports from a very young age with medium levels of success. While I always thought that I just "got sports", having a mathematical background helped me quantify what I was seeing, and then eventually, what and how I was betting.
One stupid question (maybe) what are the restrictions on betting for you since you are an oddsmaker? Because there isn't often a 'Help Wanted' sign when it comes to these positions, I'd recommend familiarizing yourself with the ins and outs of excel, programming and intense mathematics. Then go out and start crushing books. The best way to get noticed by sportsbooks is to go and take their money.
How do you determine odds for WWE events when it's a scripted event? Admittedly I'm not the biggest WWE fan, but there's a lot of information in messageboards and podcasts about what storylines make the most sense and what fans reasonably expect to happen.
Having said that...
The Undertaker was a 1/20 favorite at Wrestlemania versus Brock Lesnar. Long story short, his reign of Wrestlemania supremacy came to an end and we suffered our worst single-event loss in the month of April of this year.
Lesnar has the rare distinction of costing us a lot of money in both real and scripted fighting.
What (in your opinion) is the most interesting prop bet you've ever done on the site? Wracking my brain and we've really run gamut here. Our Super Bowl props this past February had 500 different options surrounding national anthem length, gatorade color dumped on winning coach, Bruno Mars' first song...etc.
Lately we've been experimenting more with in-game props. If a player is close to a significant in-game achievement, we've begun to offer odds on perfect games, no-hitters, hitting for the cycle. Anything that differentiates us from our competitors. The reception to these have been really positive.
Do you have any stories or examples of a time you've set a line and found yourself WAY off where other books (Vegas, online, anywhere) have put the number? The Super Bowl is a great example here as while most games closed it as a PK (or SEA/DEN) small fave, we held with the Broncos as 3-pt favorites. I know this seemingly contradicts what I've said before about recreational money affecting the line, but the Super Bowl as a one-off event takes more than anything else we'll offer in a calendar year.
Did you stick to your number or move more in line with the consensus? Because of the overwhelming action on a event like this, we were happy to have money on the Broncos at this price while conceding that those betting on Seattle likely had very valuable bets.
What was the largest bet you have ever taken? In relation to the average bet size for the market, we took mid-five figures over-limit bet on Mitt Romney to win the last Presidential Election from one of our larger players. Political wagering was something that in previous years had seen average bet sizes of $10-$20 but with more science behind the process (ie. poll aggregation etc), we had much higher limits in 2010 than we had had in previous years.
We were big Obama fans by election night.
What's the hardest sport to get right? Of the main sports right now, I'd say NCAA-B was brutal last year, if only for totals. The new rules surrounding called fouls pushed scoring up ~20 pts per game early last season as games devolved into free-throw competitions. Fortunately the calls softened as the season progressed but there were a lot of NCAA-B events last year that both we and our competitors were unable to even post totals for.
Curious approximately how much money (in how short a time span) has to get put down for a line to move by a point (or even half a point)? There's no one answer here as there's a lot of competing factors here. Earlier in the week when the limits are lower, a smaller bet from a respected player can move the line simply by having his financial opinion out there whereas a longterm loser dropping a significant bet on a point spread will rarely make us bat an eyelash. More often than not it's the opinion of the few (or changing information) that moves lines for us, not pure volume.
How come you guys are always the last ones to put up moneyline bets or even spreads in general? Why are your spreads constantly worse than other sites such as 5dimes? We get this one a lot and its dictated largely by our player base. Because our players are more of the recreational variety (smaller bets with bets coming closer to game time), we don't traditionally see a lot of handle, especially in relation to our game day handle when we post early. In terms of raw numbers, ~80% of our wagering for an NFL event comes in about an hour before it kicks off.
Recreational, small bettors are the majority everywhere. You are in fact driving away the larger bettors at the same time by limiting yourself to that audience. 2 days prior to the game is not posting early. Most large, growing sites list at least a week in advance. That's a fair point and we may look in the future to posting earlier with even lower limits. As it stands, we're comfortable with the current offering times as a business practice.
Why is it that bovada only offers a limited amount of moneylines? It's a liability issue -- When spreads get up to a certain point, the ML payout on the underdog becomes high enough that, when available for parlays with other significant underdogs, creates concerning liabilities. Each book eventually kills the moneyline offering when the underdog odds get up to a certain point. Ours is just a touch more conservative.
How come you dont offer any kind of betting trend statistics? Eh, a lot of the time these trends are close to useless. There are so many mitigating/contextual factors missing from "[team-x] has covered the spread [y-times] when [z-factor] is in play" that there's not always a lot to be taken from it.
They serve as entertainment but I would rarely be betting off of these so-called trends.
Have you looked in to adding Esports such as Starcraft 2, or League of Legends? As for Esports, I loved playing StarCraft when I was younger but I just don't see the market for it with our players and to be honest, wouldn't know where to start when it comes to capping it.
What stats do you use when making odds for week 1? Preseason or last season? A combo of both? Does it vary for the team? Last season with adjustments for depth. Preseason is largely a tirefire (the Colts under Peyton Manning would traditionally go 0-4 and 1-3) but there are small snippets of info worth gathering, especially with teams that are looking to improve and actually need those extra reps, versus teams that are already established.
How does live betting work? Do you hire people to watch the games and close betting when certain events happen (penalties, goals, etc)? Are the people hired sitting in the actual stands watching the games? Because it seems they always see things happen before the delay. We try to optimize the variety of the feeds we have available to us to ensure we have the quickest feed possible. Unfortunately (for our live traders), they have not yet been given the opportunity to attend the matches they're trading, but we try and keep them as comfortable as possible with their own private offices, big screen TVs and 6 different television feeds for each event.
What are your best leans for a 7 team parlay this opening weekend? I would advise finding individual bets that you like more than looking to make it rich on a massive payout like that. Typically sportsbooks hold much higher on parlays then they do on a straight bets so you should...
Wait.
Seahawks Browns Bengals Bears Cowboys Giants Titans/Chiefs u43.5.
Lock it up :)
Who do you like for final two this year and why? (NFL) The Broncos out of the AFC because the rest of the conference is hot garbage otherwise. While the Seahawks are still the class of the NFC, I personally like the Saints to represent them in the Super Bowl this year. (I think that Rob Ryan defense will be deadly )
I find pop culture bets really fascinating; outside of awards shows, what leads to a pop culture event getting posted odds? Any chance that you'll increase your number of pop culture bets going forward? Player interest drives these and awards shows are becoming more and more popular. We used to only offer the Academy Awards for film related wagering, but have since complemented that with the Golden Globes and Screen Actor's Guild awards.
We're probably not going to add the Razzies anytime soon, though.
Is it hard to cap teams such as Baylor, Oregon, etc in NCAAFB? They seem like they can score so much that setting a line seams difficult. Going back the past two seasons, they are 11-0 ATS at home. If it's a prospective blowout, then very much so. We have our ratings based on how strong we believe teams to be, but at what point do they take their foot off the gas? Trying to account for that is much harder than a shorter spread that is more likely correlated to what a team is trying to achieve over 60 minutes.
Are any games memorable as huge money makers (or losers) for Bovada? Most recently, the Super Bowl was the best individual day in terms of spread, props, futures, even live betting -- We continued to offer an updated spread throughout the game and the Seahawks covered each one, the highest being around -37 in-play.
Last updated: 2014-09-08 21:02 UTC
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