This is somewhat of a Part 2 in what’s turning out to be a series of posts analyzing various aspects of Tottenham’s players and their attacking data. See my first post discussing xG and xA of players over the past 5 seasons here. In this post, I’ll be looking at a few players’ shot statistics, focusing mainly on shot location and other variables like which foot they use and their respective xG.
Tl;dr: Son is truly two-footed, and that is probably what makes him such a deadly finisher. Dele creates/has much better chances on his left foot than right foot but takes few shots with his left. Kane loves March 5th, but August seriously hates him.
THE DATA
I used a python script to gather a host of shot data from understat.com, a website that compiles a ton of information on leagues, teams, and players throughout the seasons. To save space, please refer to my original post about how I gathered data. I use the same method here. The data includes variables for every shot a player has taken in the leagues that Understat covers (Premier League, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Russian Premier League). I gathered shots for Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min, Erik Lamela, Lucas Moura, Steven Bergwijn, Dele Alli, Giovanni Lo Celso, Eric Dier, and Toby Alderweireld. I gathered the main shot-takers as well as Dier and Alderweireld, 2 of our defenders who join the attack and come up for corners. I only pulled the shots for players both here last season at minimum and still here this season, so players like Eriksen and Fernando Llorente’s Hip have been excluded.
The dataset only includes Premier League matches, so no Champions league (… or EuropaL…) shots are included. Finally, after pulling the data, I added in what team the player was on for each shot, as the raw data only includes home and away teams, without specifying exactly what team the shot is foagainst. While Kane’s only club covered in the sample is Tottenham, players like Lo Celso, Son, and Lucas have played for several teams. I then filtered out other teams to only include shots taken while playing for Spurs. This is partially because I’m a huge Spurs supporter and am curious about our shot statistics, and also because it’s good practice in statistics to control for any possible outside variables, like teammates on different teams that only a single player in the sample was receiving passes from.
Once I cleaned up the data, I imported it into Tableau for easy visualization and storytelling. I used JMP to perform some t-tests for analysis later on, which is basically checking to see if 2 means are statistically different from each other or if there’s not really a true difference between them.
The key variables in this analysis are the X and Y coordinates of the shots. Understat has assigned an X and Y number to every shot, which is where the player took the shot from on the pitch. Visualizing a football pitch, with the team attacking from left to right, with the attacking team’s goal line at x = 0, and the opposing team’s goal line at x = 1. The right-side touchline of the pitch is at y = 0, and the left-side touchline is at y = 1. So, the center spot is located at (0.5, 0.5), and the center of the goal you’re shooting on is at (1, 0.5). I hope that makes sense.
One limitation of the data is that the coordinates are on a square, but pitches are rectangles. This isn’t a major issue, but it means that a 0.1 change in X is not the same distance, in meters, as a 0.1 change in Y. Also important to note is the fact that almost all Premier League pitches have different dimensions, even if by just a few yards. To best reconcile this, I averaged out the distance from goal-line to goal-line (X axis) and from touchline to touchline (Y axis) of the 2019-20 grounds. I next calculated at what coordinates to add the 18-yard box and 6-yard box lines to. Since all grounds have the same dimensions for these boxes, that isn’t a major problem. In the visualizations, the 18-yard box is solid gray, and the 6-yard box is dashed gray. I limit the views to the attacking half of the pitch for easy comparison. Only a couple of Kane’s and one of Lucas’ shots are from their own half (all misses).
I validated shot locations by watching a number of Son, Kane, and Dele goals on footballia.net. I watched 5 each of their goals, noted the locations they shot from, and then located them in my sample. They were very accurate, so I have confidence enough in the (x,y) coordinates coding.
ANALYSIS
Please follow this link here to play around with this data yourself on Tableau Public. I can’t figure out how to embed a Tableau Viz into a Reddit post.
The image below shows the full sample—all Spurs shots for all players I downloaded. Naturally, this view doesn’t show much at all. We can see that there are many goals right in front of the net, and they all have high xG. And we can see that the further away from the goal you get, the fewer shots there are. One thing I like about this Viz is how few shots Spurs take on the right or left side of the 18-yard box. But one of these shots is also my favorite-ever goal, which I’ll get to later on.
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All shots in the sample. Color is the result (goal, saved, etc.) and size of the circle is xG. I really want to know what the “bald patch” around (0.85, 0.6) is…
From here, we can filter down by various variables, such as player. First, let’s look at a few players’ shot maps. Again, head over to my Tableau post to see all of these graphics and ones I didn’t screenshot—they’re interactive too.
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Kane's shot map
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Son's shot map
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Dele's shot map
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Lamela's shot map
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Dier's shot map
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Alderweireld' shot map
I don’t know about you, but I love looking at these maps. I’ve added a lot of information to each data point on Tableau, such as date; the team it was against; whether it was from a free kick, open play, corner, etc.; and the player who delivered the last pass before the shot. You can also highlight only the Result of the shot.
Of course, just looking at a shot map blindly gives little insight. We need to dig a little deeper into the data. First, I looked at average shot location, starting with the y-axis. This will show us which side of the pitch a player tends to take shots from. Kane’s average shot location on the Y-axis (left/right side of the pitch) is 0.5052—almost perfectly in the middle, so he doesn’t favor one side or the other. And his median location is exactly 0.5000, which is legitimately creepy. Since Kane’s the only striker in the group, naturally Son, Dele, and Bergwijn shoot more from the left, while Lo Celso, Lamela, and Lucas shoot more from the right. Dier and Alderweireld shoot more from the right, which makes sense since Dier has was used a bit as a right-sided midfielder and occasionally as a right back when he joined, and Toby almost exclusively plays as the right-sided CB. Toby has an average shot closer to the right touchline than Dier, which could show how Dier has played a fair bit at left-sided CB and as a central holding midfielder.
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Average Y-axis location for each player’s shots. Kane does not favor a side to strike from.
Next, I dug into each player’s shot data based on the foot they shot with. I looked at the average xG of every shot taken, the goal conversion rate (goals/total shots), and the total number of shots taken with each foot. This data, shown in the table below—coupled with shot locations—is the meat of my analysis.
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Average xG for each shot by foot, goal%, and total shots taken for selected players.
This table is where I first saw something major in the data:
Dele needs to use his left foot much more often. His average xG for all left-foot shots is 0.2644, much greater than 0.1208 average with his right. In fact, this is statistically significant at the 95% level (t-test p-value of 0.0006), which means that there’s less than a 5% chance that this big of a difference is random. Basically, it’s almost a given that Dele will have a higher xG with left-foot shots than right (on average).
Further, Dele has a 14.71% conversion rate with his left, and 16.46% with his right. This is an insignificant difference (p-value of 0.7915) from 34 left-footed shots and 237 right, so we can conclude that Dele should take more shots with his left foot. It is probable that defenders know he favors his right, so his high left-foot xG could be due to him putting defenders off by shifting onto his left, giving himself a much better look at goal (I should note that Lamela, who is notorious for only using his left foot, does not exhibit this with right-foot shots. Dele’s left-foot xG are in fact crazy). Last, it is important to note that no other player in the sample had a statistically significant difference between left- and right-foot average xG—the quality of their chances is the same on their right- or left foot. This is something unique to Dele in this sample.
Next, let’s look at Son. Son is known for having no weak foot—and his shot data backs that up. Son’s average xG on left-foot shots is 0.1148, and it’s 0.1137 for right-foot. An insignificant difference of only 0.011! He also converts 16.37% of left-foot and 17.62% of right-foot shots, again insignificant. He uses whichever foot would be the best for the situation, and his shot map backs that up. Outside the box, he prefers his left foot on the right side of the pitch, and his right foot on the left side. This is good practice (unless you’re trivela-master Quaresma or Le Cut Inside Man), so you can bend it into the net out of the keeper’s reach. Inside the box, Son tends to use his right foot on the right side, and left foot on the left side. Again, this is good practice because you can typically get a much better shot off when you’re running at the goal by using the foot of the side of net you’re on (right foot for right side of goal, and vice versa).
Since we discussed Dele’s right vs left xG and how Son chooses the best foot for the situation he’s in, let’s dive further into Dele, Son, Kane, and Lamela’s use of their feet. These are—or in Dele’s current form, were—some of Spurs’ main attackers of the past 5 seasons or so (who are still here). We know Son uses the best foot for the situation. We can further see that that is in fact the case when we add a trend line to his right- and left-foot shot maps. On his right-foot shot map, we see a “negative” trend (slope = -0.69 nice), which is what we want to see, given that outside the box you typically want to use your right foot on the left side of the pitch, and closer inside the box you want to use your right foot on the right side of the pitch. Lamela has a very similar trend (slope = -0.91). Kane has a less pronounced trend than Son and Lamela, but still a distinct shape (slope = -0.38). Dele’s line, however, is relatively flat (slope = -0.12). So, while he exhibits this trend, you can see how he’s using his right foot in many scenarios where he might be better served using his left.
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Shot map and trend line for Right Foot shots
Looking now at left-foot shot maps, we want to see a “positive” trend line, a mirror of the right-foot map. Son, as we would expect from the ambipedal maestro, exhibits this perfectly (slope = 1.18). Kane’s is again a solid trend (slope = 0.55), yet not as pronounced as Son’s; same with Lamela (slope = 0.29). Now look at Dele’s… It is actually the exact opposite from what we might “want” to see. The slope here (slope = -0.35) is strangely greater than his right-foot trend line. I want to walk you through my thought process regarding this data:
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Shot map and trend line for Left Foot shots
First, it appeared that Dele should take many of these shots with his right foot, and I figured maybe this is the reason he’s been under-performing of late. However, he is a fundamentally different player than Kane and Son, so his shots from close to the net on the right aren’t usually coming from him running at the keepedefenders, but from being cute and technical from a stopped position in a somewhat-crowded box. From watching him the last few years, he tends to try a few movements in the box to shift his body or open his hips for a pass or shot. Finally, I realized that maybe this explains his abnormal xG with left-foot vs right-foot shots…
No matter the scenario, being relatively close to the goal on the right side of the pitch would lead a defender to expect you to either recycle possession or use your right foot to shoot/cross across the face of goal. If Dele shifts it onto his left foot to have a shot (which the defender may not expect since Dele favors his right foot), this could lead to a higher xG shot than a right-foot shot, where the defender could close the angle easily. I’ve noticed that Dele likes to open his hips for a quick pass/shot fairly often, so this would be a perfect opportunity to do so—even if he’s running at the keeper he likes to open up his hips and try to slot it far post.
I welcome any comments/discussion on this aspect of Dele’s analysis. I found it very interesting that his left-foot shot map goes against what we “should” see. For further validation, we can compare Lamela’s trend lines (since he and Dele play somewhat similar roles and are both very one-footed). As we saw above, Lamela’s trends follow Son and Kane, so Dele truly is an anomaly with his left foot. Dele if you’re reading this… take more shots with your left foot!!! Somehow your left foot shots are crazy better than your right. Get back to your best, you’ve got this!
Now let’s look at Kane in August. Until August 18, 2018, Kane hadn’t scored in the month. Before that day, he had taken 46 shots in August for a combined total of 4.52 xG. And looking at his shot map for these 46 shots, it’s not that he’s taking bad strikes. He has several very high xG shots that were saved or hit the post. Kane truly does not perform well in August. The following table shows all players’ goals, total xG, and number of shots taken in August before Kane scored. Excluding Lucas, who only had one shot, every other player in the sample had scored. In fact, they were all outperforming their xG. August is Kane’s Bane.
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Kane’s shot map for the month of August. You can see all the non-goals. August hates him.
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Table showing all goals, total xG, and shots taken in August before the game Kane scored in.
Let’s move on past attackers to defenders now. Alderweireld has taken 19 shots on the right side of the pitch behind the 18-yard box; more than anywhere else except the middle of the 18-Yard Box around the penalty spot (which is expected since he comes up for corners). This shows how he pushes up from right-sided CB and has a crack from distance fairly regularly. Not a new insight, but cool to see. Dier has a similar spread of shots on both the right and left side of the pitch, but most of his shots from the right side outside the box are from 2014 to 2016, when he typically played as a right back, right-sided CB, and right-sided mid.
Lo Celso, Lucas, and Bergwijn have nothing extremely interesting to call out in detail, but here are a few things I found interesting. First, even though Lucas plays mainly on the right or as main striker, his shot map is almost symmetric. This shows how much he buzzes around the pitch, even when coming in from the right. Second, I thought it was interesting that Lo Celso has only taken two shots with his right foot so far. Both were low xG, and the keeper saved both. Those Argentinians legit have a thing against right feet. Finally, I was surprised to see how few shots Bergwijn has taken in the Prem. I must have rose-tinted glasses on, because I could’ve sworn he had taken over 11 shots. However, he has scored 3/11, a remarkable 27% goal-shot percent. That number is even better when looking at shots on target: 3 goals from 8 shots on target. I bet we see that W celebration more.
And finally, all (pseudo-) research includes future research suggestions. I would love to add the entire squad and look at more temporal view of the team—analyzing shot maps across seasons. I also want to look at the last year of Poch’s reign and the first year of Mourinho’s. Since a lot of the key players are still on the team for that span, we can look at the differences between the two managers. However, we should probably look at a random 1-year span of each manager, since managers tend to get sacked for a reason. Last, we could dive further into individual players across time, to see how they develop, and maybe even compare in-form shot maps to out-of-form ones to see if they are unlucky given the xG of their shots or maybe if they’re taking worse shots from bad positions.
In conclusion, Spurs took shots, and I put them in Tableau to find fun stuff.
INTERESTING TIDBITS AND GOALS
I’ve added a few sheets at the end of the Tableau Viz that highlight some interesting/fun/banger goals.
Harry Kane has only ever played on March 5th twice, in 2016 and 2017. But he’s scored absolute BANGERS in both games. One beautiful goal against Arsenal from a crazy angle where he celebrated by sprinting faster than ever and ripping off his facemask (still brings me tears of joy… so much pashun), and one absolute show of strength against Everton, where he holds off defenders before belting the ball from deep past the keeper. The next time March 5th falls on a weekend is 2022 and again in 2023. I’ll be calling up the FA to make sure they schedule Spurs to play Saturday 3/5/2022 and Sunday 3/5/2023.
I also call out Kane’s infamous “claimed” goal vs Stoke. This had a high xG of 0.4587, so if it was an Eriksen goal, it would’ve had a much lower xG…… I’m sure Kane’s daughter is happy.
Vertonghen claimed the world’s second-best assist (behind Tommy Carroll’s assist to Bale) for Son’s Burnley goal. Son’s furthest goal also is fun to see at 0.0147 xG.
Dele’s insane flick-turn-volley against Palace gets a nice mention, as does Dier’s first-ever shot in a Spurs shirt: a stoppage time winner away at West Ham on his debut. Dude’s been oozing Big Dick Dier energy since day 1 at Spurs.
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Sorry for how long this is, it kept getting longer and longer. Thanks to all who made it through!
Edited to correct broken links

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Hello again all, trying to distract myself from the fact that it’s already May, I’ve put my matching Friday pants and socks set on to bring you another edition of the alternative World Cup. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the premise of this series why not indulge yourself in the last two groups.
Group A, Group B
Whilst yesterday featured a group with sprinkles of quality throughout, I’m afraid to say this gathering is a little one-sided. One African team dwarfs three squads of an Asian persuasion, so with more utopian island spots than full time pro’s on display, I’ll try my utmost not to drift into a Thomas Cook holiday blog, no promises though.
Group C
West Africa
Togo, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinnea Bissau, Senegal, The Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Western Sahara, Algeria, Morrocco
Population (millions): 240.19
When it comes to brainchildren it’s strongly advised not to have favourites, but between you and me this is the funnest squad of the lot.
Similarly to Eastern Europe, West Africa has often been a hive of sporting talent restrained by the labyrinth of borders within its confines. George Weah, Emmanuel Adebayor, Yaya Toure, Didier Drogba and Abedi Pele are some notable stars of the past, but the conveyor belt of sporadic world-class attacking talent over the last 30 years appears to have crescendoed into a full blown production line of stars in every outfield position.
Something that my hypothesis can’t fairly simulate is what affect an open plan Africa would have on the decision making of some of our games Euro-Africano elite. N’Golo Kante is of Malean descent whilst fellow Parisian Paul Pogba boasts his Guinean parentage. It would be a safe bet to assume at least some juggling would take place with the region's newfound affluence, but until I am able to read the minds of millionaire athletes I’m not going to touch the subject with a barge pole, besides I think I’d go for the sort codes well before I look at their national preference.
What we DO have however is a terrific squad on paper that will continue to improve as the years continue, with 17 year old Barcelona wunderkind Ansu Fati hailing from Guinea-Bissau, as long as he doesn’t succumb to a Spanish inquisition.

Goalkeepers				Birthplace	FM20	Value	Age
Edouard Mendy	SEN	Rennes	GK	Montivilliers, France	65	€4.40	28
Yassine Bounou	MAR	Sevilla	GK	Montreal, Canada	68	€10.00	29
Defenders
Faouzi Ghoulam	ALG	Napoli	LB	Saint-Priest, France	72	€17.10	29
Dakonam Djene	TOG	Getafe	CB	Dapaong	74	€26.80	28
Kalidou Koulibaly	SEN	Napoli	CB	Saint-Die, France	84	€64.30	28
Achraf Hakimi	MAR	B. Dortmund	RWB	Madrid, Spain	72	€23.30	21
Eric Bailly	CIV	Man United	CB	Bingerville	72	€31.40	26
Salif Sane	SEN	Schalke 04	CB	Lormont, France	69	€9.00	29
Serge Aurier	CIV	Tottenham	RB	Ouragahio	70	€19.90	27
Kwadwo Asamoah	GHA	Inter Milan	LWB	Accra	74	€21.10	31
Midfielders
Riyad Mahrez	ALG	Man City	RW	Sarcelles, France	77	€62.00	29
Hakim Ziyech	MAR	Ajax	CAM	Dronten, Netherlands	79	€42.80	27
Thomas Partey	GHA	Atleti	CDM	Krobo Odumase	76	€33.40	26
Naby Keita	GUI	Liverpool	CM	Conakry	78	€52.20	25
Ismaila Sarr	SEN	Watford	RW	Saint-Louis	67	€22.20	22
Pepe	CIV	Arsenal	RW	Mantes-la-Jolie, France	76	€45.60	24
Idrissa Gana Gueye	SEN	PSG	CDM	Dakar	75	€28.80	30
Amine Harit	MOR	Schalke	CAM	Pontoise, France	69	€10.07	22
Forwards
Sadio Mane	SEN	Liverpool	LF	Sedhiou	90	€92.40	28
Wilfried Zaha	CIV	Crystal Palace	CF	Abidjan	77	€59.60	27
Moussa Marega	MLI	Porto	ST	Les Ulis, France	70	€16.80	29
Islam Slimani	ALG	Monaco	ST	Algiers	68	€19.80	31
				Average/Totals	74	€712.90	27.13636364

A difficult pick but I’ve settled on a squad that could play in numerous formations, Sadio Mané and Riyad Mahrez are two of the Premier Leagues most potent wide players whilst the midfield is a superfluity of athleticism and technique.
The likes of Feghouli, Kessie and Gervinho didn’t survive the longlist but the competition was stiff. I’m not overly happy with the inclusion of goal starved Islam Slimani but the area is surprisingly scarce of talented out and out forwards.
If this team fails to collect all nine points in this group it would be the worst thing to happen to West Africa since Di Caprio’s accent in Blood Diamond.
South India & Arabian Sea
6 Indian provinces (Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Goa), Sri Lanka, Maldives
Population (millions):239.70
Another region that practises footballing atheism, this was one of the most difficult to research. But if any documentarians want to make this into a series then I’d be happy to take some time out to fly out and research the Maldives for a while.
The two island nations donate their services to an uninspiring mess of Indian nonentity. Including the world’s sixth highest scoring active player Ali Ashfaq, never heard of him? Nah me neither.

Goalkeepers				Birthplace	FM20	Value	Age
Kamaljit Singh	IND	Hyderabad	GK	Goa	24	€0.02	24
Chathura Ekanayake	SRI	Eagles Malé	GK	Sri Lanka	22	€0.00	27
Defenders
Anas Edathodika	IND	ATK	CB	Kerala	33	€0.03	33
Adil Khan	IND	Hyderabad	RB	Goa	32	€0.02	31
Mandar Rao Dessal	IND	Mumbai City	LB	Goa	31	€0.02	28
Lenny Ridrigues	IND	Goa	CDM	Goa	24	€0.02	32
Mohamed Imtiyas	SRI	Renown	CB	Kotahena	25	€0.01	24
Akram Abdul Ghanee	MDV	Valencia (MDV)	CB	Maafaru	28	€0.01	33
Edwin Sydney	IND	Chennaiyin	RWB	Kerala	21	€0.01	27
Asikur Alawadeen	SRI	Pelicans	CB	Kurunegala	23	€0.01	26
Midfielders
Brandon Fernandes	IND	Goa	CAM	Goa	33	€0.03	25
Rowllin Borges	IND	Mumbai City	CDM	Goa	32	€0.02	27
Sahal Abdul Samad	IND	Kerala Blasters	CM	Kerala	34	€0.04	23
Michael Soosairaj	IND	ATK	CM	Tamil Nadu	32	€0.03	25
Nikhil Poojari	IND	Hyderabad	CM	Karnataka	29	€0.02	24
Ahmed Razeek	SRI	Berliner AK	CDM	Berlin	44	€0.06	26
Mohamed Umair	MDV	Maziya	CM	Malé	27	€0.01	20
Romeo Fernandes	IND	Odisha	RM	Goa	23	€0.02	27
Forwards
Ashique Kuruniyan	IND	Bengaluru	CF	Kerala	35	€0.04	22
Jobby Justin	IND	ATK	ST	Kerala	28	€0.02	26
CK Vineeth	IND	Jamshedpur	ST	Kerala	27	€0.02	31
Ali Ashfaq	MDV	Club Green Streets	ST	Malé	27	€0.01	34
				Average/Totals	29	€0.47	27.04545455

Ali Ashfaq has officially netted 463 times in his now 19 year career. Haters will say most of that was in the Maldivian league but I think I’d only be able to score half that amount so fair play to him.
The most notable islander is German born Sri Lankan Ahmed Razeek, the Berliner came through the ranks at now-Bundesliga team Union Berlin, but finds himself playing fourth tier football at the time of writing. At 25, Razeek only dedicated his services to Golden Lion in 2019, a bit of European experience may help the nation who have commanded just four wins in the last five years.
India’s most promising contribution to the side is 22 year old Ashique Kuruniyan, the young forward lacks goals but is known as something of a playmaker, Kuruniyan to Ashfaq could be the new Ozil to Ronaldo, but realistically I think this team will be lucky to find the net at all if the ratings are anything to Goa on.
Oceania and Southeast Asia
Australia, American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Cambodia, Singapore, Phillipines, Malaysia, 11 Indonisian Provinces (Papua, West Papua, Maluku, North Maluku, Sulawesi Island, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara)
Population: 231.57
I almost broke the comma button on my laptop writing out all those islands, and it still doesn’t quite reach 240m. The pacific islands are home to some of the worst national teams out there, none more infamous than American Samoa who hold the record for the biggest ever defeat in international football, a 31-0 loss to Australia. If anyone hasn’t seen the documentary that was inspired subsequently to the loss, ‘next goal wins’ is perhaps my favourite football film and couldn’t recommend it highly enough when trying to explain the humanity of playing football in this part of the world.
The antagonists of the Samoan’s defeat, Australia have since changed confederations from lack of challenge. Joining the Asian Football Confederation in early 2006, the Socceroo’s have since won the Asian Cup on home soil and qualified for each of the previous four iterations of the World Cup. In 2006 a ‘golden generation’ fronted by Harry Kewell and Tim Cahill narrow missed out on a quarter final berth being beaten by eventual champions Italy in the 95th minute thanks to a controversial penalty.
While the likes of Kewell, Cahill and Mark Schwarzer have long since retired, the Aussies produce a modest yet constant procession of pro’s. Along with fellow anglophone New Zealand, the select Oceanic islanders often choose a path of playing in England’s football pyramid, with a few Premier League stalwarts found within the squad below.
Southeast Asia has a curious footballing culture, a strong general interest in the European game with seemingly little rewards for their appropriation, no malaysians manage to sneak into the selection whilst the Phillipines’ most famous athlete behind Manny Pacquiao only makes back up keeper.

Goalkeepers				Birthplace	Football manager	Value	Age
Matthew Ryan	AUS	Brighton	GK	Plumpton	66	€15.80	28
Neil Etheridge	PH	Cardiff	GK	London, England	64	€11.00	30
Defenders
Winston Reid	NZ	West Ham	CB	Auckland	66	€14.50	31
Milos Degenek	AUS	Red Star	CB	Knin, Croatia	62	€1.30	26
Trent Sainsbury	AUS	Maccabi Haifa	RB	Thornlie	60	€0.88	28
Bailey Wright	AUS	Bristol City	CB	Melbourne	59	€3.30	27
Wesley Lautoa	NCA	Dijon	CB	Epernay, France	62	€2.20	32
Aziz Behich	AUS	Basaksehir	LB	Melbourne	60	€2.20	29
Brad Smith	AUS	Bournemouth	LWB	Penrith	63	€9.50	26
Stephan Schrock	PHI	Cares	RB	Schweinfurt, Germany	57	€0.77	33
Midfielders
Aaron Mooy	AUS	Brighton	CM	Sydney	70	€26.70	29
Tom Rogic	AUS	Celtic	CAM	Griffith	67	€11.90	27
Mathew Leckie	AUS	Hertha Berlin	CM	Melbourne	65	€4.80	29
Robbie Kruse	AUS	Mebourne Victory	RM	Brisbane	64	€1.30	31
Awer Mabil	AUS	Mitdtjylland	RW	Kakuma, Kenya	63	€1.50	24
Craig Goodwin	AUS	Al-Wehda	LM	Adelaide	58	€4.60	28
Ryan Thomas	NZ	PSV	CDM	Te Puke	65	€6.50	25
Massimo Luongo	AUS	Sheffield W	CDM	Sydney	62	€7.80	27
Forwards
Chris Wood	NZ	Burnley	ST	Auckland	67	€23.40	28
Adam Taggart	AUS	Suwon Bluewings	ST	Perth	62	€0.84	26
Aposrolos Giannou	AUS	AEK Larnaka	ST	Nousa, Greece	63	€1.30	30
Daniel Arzani	AUS	Celtic	CF	Khorramabad, Iran	60	€8.20	21
				Average/Totals	63	€160.29	29.68181818

As you can see the team is dominated by Aussie and Kiwi men, but there is some polynesian persuasion in the way of Wesley Lautoa who takes restbite trying to defend the likes of Neymar, Mbappe and Depay by bullying semi-pro strikers playing for New Caledonia.
Daniel Arzani is the best bet for a future talisman, despite really struggling to make the grade in Europe he’s still only 21 and could yet fulfil his potential. The Celtic forward has impeccable technical ability and has an eye on one day becoming a regular at his parent club Man City.
Chris Wood has a Premier League goal record that any striker would be proud of and is the archetypal Sean Dyche forward, but I would suggest that his physical play style precedes his genuine international quality. New Zealand famously exited the 2010 World Cup as the only side to leave undefeated, and part of that was due to the defensive talents of Winston Reid, who at that time was a 21 year old padawan learner to Blackburn hero Ryan Nelson. Now 31, The former West Ham captain Reid leads this sides defensive line where he’ll do his best to make the younger lads do most of the legwork.
Neil Etheridge is unlucky not to be the standout number one in this team, the keeper come underwear model caught the eyes of English fans saving three penalties in the 2018-19 season, although when on loan to Bristol Rovers he caught a free-kick and stepped backwards into his own goal, don’t think we’ve forgotten Neil.
Western China
9 Chinese Provinces (Feng Jin, Gansu, Shaanxi, Sichaun, Tibet, Xinjiang Uygur, Ningxia, Qinghai)
Population (millions): 256.25
A little over the limit for this one but you wouldn’t notice from the squad. The west of China is the least densely populated region and the one with the least investment in the club game, so it is no surprise that there is correlation to the talent, or lack thereof.
Every metric I’ve used in research points to this being the Chinese team that will struggle the most, the bulk of the players hail from Sichuan, which since we’re on reddit may give most of you PTSD of Rick and Morty fans standing on McDonalds counters.
None of the following players featured in the most recent Chinese national squad. In a sporting wilderness that hasn’t been invited to the game of Monopoly out east, you can’t blame this side for underwhelming.

Goalkeepers				Birthplace	FM20	Value	Age
Wang QI	CHI	Shaanxi Athletic	GK	Shaanxi	35	€0.60	27
Yerjet Yerzat	CHI	Chongqing Lifan	GK	Xinjiang Uygur	36	€0.72	27
Defenders
Yang Xiaotian	CHI	Jiangsu Suning	LB	Shaanxi	40	€1.40	30
Wang Erzhuo	CHI	Shaanxi Athletic	CB	Shaanxi	28	€0.24	33
Alishat	CHI	Xinjiang Sport Lottery	CB	Xinjiang	40	€0.43	25
Zhang Ao	CHI	Xinjiang Sport Lottery	RB	Shanxi	28	€0.37	29
Liu Yu	CHI	Shanghai Shenxin	CB	Sichuan	30	€0.44	25
Zhou Xuri	CHI	Dalian Yifang	CB	Sichuan	29	€0.30	21
Otkur Hesen	CHI	Sichaun Jiuniu	LB	Xinjiang	20	€0.00	27
Bari Mamatil	CHI	Qiangdao Huanghai	RWB	Xinjiang	39	€1.50	31
Midfielders
Peng Xinli	CHI	Shanghai Shenhua	CM	Shanxi	47	€2.60	29
Mirahmetjan Muzepper	CHI	Shanghai SIPG	CAM	Xinjiang	46	€3.30	29
Zhang Xiuwei	CHI	Guangzhou E	CM	Sichuan	46	€2.70	24
Luo Senwen	CHI	Hebei China Fortune	CDM	Sichuan	44	€2.10	27
Li Yuanyi	CHI	Shenzhen	CM	SIchuan	42	€1.30	26
Zhang Chiming	CHI	Tianjin	RW	SIchuan	38	€1.10	31
Shewket Yalqun	CHI	Guangzhou E	LW	Xinjiang	33	€0.94	27
Yehya	CHI	Xinjiang Tianshan	CM	Xinjiang	24	€0.24	32
Forwards
Yan Dinghao	CHI	Gondomar	CF	Sichuan	45	€2.40	22
Li Fang	CHI	Chongqing Lifan	ST	Sichuan	34	€1.30	27
Gan Yingbo	CHI	Sichaun Longfor	CF	Sichuan	24	€0.16	35
Abduhamit Abdugheni	CHI	Jiangsu Suning	CF	Shaanxi	35	€0.75	23
				Average/Totals	36	€24.89	27.59090909

Finding a 22 was a real struggle and there is an imbalance of positions to show for it. The only true striker is Chongqing’s Li Fang, who is officially listed as a striker-come-right back which is an oddly specific duology of skills.
The squad is predominantly composed of players from the nations second tier CL1, which to enlight the general reader means they probably aren’t going to win the tournament.
Another day another group, tomorrow we finally see one of the long anticipated Western European megasquads, and play a game of spot the Uzbekistani. Thanks again for reading, let me know if you think I've missed anyone from the squads or made an error and try to have a stab at the starting XI’s for today's teams.

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Introduction

Have you ever wondered what would happen if you took the great sides from yester-year and put them in the same league together? UEFA have been trying to do that recently with the much reviled UEFA Super League^TM and since it’s looking like that won’t happen I thought I’d simulate something similar but within the comfort of my home county: the EPL. What would happen if I put the 19 most dominant teams in EPL history into one league and simulated many seasons? Who would get the most points? Who would win the most seasons? Let's find out!

The Teams

The nineteen best teams in Premier League history by points totals according to the transfermarkt website are:

• Manchester City: 2011-12 (Pipped United to the title on the last day by Goal Difference), 2013-14 (A Yaya Toure masterclass and a Gerrard blunder gives City their second title), 2017-18 (Broke multiple records such as Most Points (100), Most Goals (106) and Highest Goal Difference (+79) in a league season), 2018-19 (Current Champions, beating Liverpool by a point).
  
• Liverpool: 2018-19 (The most points ever accumulated by a 2nd placed team (97)).
  
• Chelsea: 2004-05 (Conceded just 15 goals in a season, the lowest ever), 2005-06 (Won nine in a row to start the season), 2009-10 (Record number of home goals scored in a season – 68), 2014-15 (Topped the table for 37/38 matchdays), 2016-17 (Won 13 in a row under Antonio Conte).
  
• Manchester United: 1999-2000 (Fresh from winning the treble the previous season, this team hit 91 points in the league), 2006-07 (First of three successive titles for Ferguson’s men), 2007-08 (Ronaldo’s greatest season in England), 2008-09 (Ronaldo’s final season at United), 2011-12 (Lost out to Man City on Goal Difference on the final day), 2012-13 (Robin Van Persie scores 26 goals to win Ferguson’s final title).
  
• Arsenal: 2001-02 (Wenger’s 2nd Premier League title), 2003-04 (The “Invincibles” become only the second team in Top-Flight English Football History to go an entire league season without a loss).
  
• Tottenham: 2016-17 (Harry Kane scores 29 goals in the league to help Spurs reach 86 points).
  

For fun, I decided to complete the league with the infamous Derby County 2007-08 side that managed to accumulate just 11 points in an entire season, which is the record lowest points tally to this day. Would they be able to beat any of the monster teams listed above over a simulated season?

Methodology

(Skip to the Results section if you want to avoid reading the Mathsy stuff.)
A season in a 20-team league is composed of 380 matches, each of which is made up of a home team and an away team. The fundamental assumption I will be making is that the number of goals scored by a team follows a Poisson distribution with mean dependent on the teams’ attacking strength and the oppositions’ defensive strength. This is a reasonable assumption since the Poisson distribution is typically skewed towards lower numbers when the mean is small (and football is a low-scoring game). However it is not perfect – for example the occurrence of goals in a match is not independent from when the last goal occurred, also a goal being scored is a rare event in a football match and so you will run into sample size issues. A better compromise would be to use a shot-based metric like xG since shots are much more frequent events, though xG statistics were not available for some of the older teams in this list so that had to be abandoned. Since this is just for fun I decided not to look too far for the perfect model and stuck with what I had, which was simple to code.
The Home Field Advantage is a well-established phenomenon in football and so for each of the 20 teams I want to look at how they performed at home and away, treating each separately. Therefore for each team I need to find out four things: their home attack, home defence, away attack and away defence. To do this I need to look at the goal-scoring records for the 20 teams in their respective seasons:
Let’s consider Manchester City 2018-19 as an example.

• In the 2018-19 season Man City scored 57 goals at home in 19 matches. This is an average of 3.000 per match. So against an “average team” in the league (which may not exist) they are expected to score 3 goals at home. This number is Man City 2018-19’s home attack.
  
• Man City conceded 12 goals at home in 19 matches for an average of 0.632 per match. Relative to the hypothetical “average team” this is a factor of 0.533 times as many goals compared to what the average team in the league conceded at home in the 2018-19 season per match (1.186). So Man City’s home defence is 0.533.
  

Repeating this for all the other teams in the league home and away will give us the numbers needed to find the Poisson mean for both teams in a match. Let’s have a look at an example to see how these numbers are used to predict a match outcome:
Manchester City 2018-19 vs. Derby County 2007-08
The mean number of goals I expect Man City to score in this match is given by the formula:
MCI2018-19 home attack * DER2007-08 away defense = 3.000 * 1.583 = 4.749.
Similarly the mean number of goals I expect Derby to score in this match is given by:
DER2007-08 away attack * MCI2018-19 home defense = 0.421 * 0.533 = 0.224
So the expected scoreline in this match will be a 4.749 – 0.224 win in favour of Man City, i.e. roughly 5-0 on average. This is repeated for the remaining 379 fixtures in the season and from there a simulated table can be conjured up. Bear in mind that the goals scored in each match are all random and vulnerable to the variance of the Poisson distribution. Man City are expected to score 4.749 goals in the match against Derby but according to the Poisson distribution have a 0.86% chance of scoring zero goals! This could happen in our simulated season but it wouldn’t be representative of Man City’s strength as a whole. To counter this variance I used a Monte Carlo Method by simulating 10,000 seasons in R (I will spare you my inefficient code, though outputs are given at the bottom) to answer interesting questions such as:

• What was the Average Table over the 10,000 seasons? Which team placed the highest on average?
  
• Which team won the league the most? Which teams finished in the top 4 the most? Which three teams got relegated the most?
  
• Did Derby County ever finish a season above 20th Place?
  

Results

The Average Table (over 10,000 seasons)

Avg Pos.	Team	Pld.	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts.
4.3	Manchester City 2018-19	38	18.7	9.8	9.5	60.7	35.8	+24.9	65.8
4.5	Chelsea 2004-05	38	17.9	11.7	8.4	47.0	25.6	+21.4	65.4
4.9	Manchester City 2017-18	38	18.5	9.0	10.5	67.1	43.0	+24.1	64.5
5.2	Liverpool 2018-19	38	17.9	10.0	10.1	56.7	35.2	+21.5	63.8
7.0	Manchester United 2007-08	38	16.7	10.2	11.1	51.0	36.4	+14.6	60.3
7.2	Tottenham 2016-17	38	16.7	9.8	11.5	55.0	40.5	+14.5	59.9
7.8	Manchester City 2011-12	38	16.5	9.2	12.2	58.8	44.6	+14.2	58.9
8.3	Chelsea 2009-10	38	16.3	8.7	12.9	64.2	49.9	+14.3	57.8
10.4	Chelsea 2005-06	38	14.6	10.5	12.9	45.5	38.7	+6.8	54.3
10.4	Manchester City 2013-14	38	15.4	8.0	14.5	63.4	57.6	+5.8	54.3
11.0	Manchester United 2011-12	38	14.6	9.4	14.0	56.1	50.4	+5.7	53.2
11.3	Manchester United 2006-07	38	14.4	9.6	14.0	52.5	47.9	+4.6	52.7
11.5	Arsenal 2003-04	38	14.0	10.5	13.5	46.5	42.4	+4.1	52.5
12.5	Chelsea 2016-17	38	13.8	9.4	14.9	53.2	50.9	+2.3	50.7
12.9	Manchester United 2008-09	38	13.1	10.7	14.2	42.9	42.1	+0.8	50.0
14.7	Chelsea 2014-15	38	12.4	9.5	16.1	46.5	54.9	-8.4	46.8
14.9	Arsenal 2001-02	38	12.3	9.2	16.5	49.6	57.6	-8.0	46.2
15.0	Manchester United 1999-2000	38	12.8	7.7	17.6	59.6	69.3	-9.7	46.0
16.1	Manchester United 2012-13	38	11.6	8.2	18.1	53.7	66.4	-12.7	43.2
20.0	Derby County 2007-08	38	0.4	1.5	36.1	11.4	152.3	-140.9	2.6

• With the exception of Derby County it's quite clear that there is a lot of parity in this league with only 23 points separating 1st from 19th!
  
• Man City 2017-18 and 2018-19 backed up their record point tallies by finishing highly most seasons in this league of heavyweights. Chelsea 2004-05's incredible defense let them keep up the pace with Guardiola's teams as they finished a very close 2nd in the Average Table.
  
• Surprisingly Tottenham 2016-17 performed better on average than the champions of that season Chelsea in this league, due to their better goal scoring and conceding record for that year.
  
• It went about as well as you could have expected for poor Derby County who finished bottom of the table in every single season (see the Crosstable below), scoring just 11.4 goals on average and conceding 152.3 over the 38-game season. On average they earned fewer than three points over a whole season!
  

Crosstable (Probability of finishing in x^th position)

• Despite having two points fewer than the Centurions, Man City 2018-19 won the super league more often than any other team, they were crowned champions 2,195 times.
  
• Other regular winners were Chelsea 2004-05 (1,909 sims), Manchester City 2017-18 (1,781 sims) and Liverpool 2018-19 (1,420 sims) who complete the so-called "Big Four", sharing the league title 73.05% of the time between them.
  
• Along with Derby County, Robin Van Persie's 2012-13 Manchester United were relegated the most often (4,602 sims), with the 1999-2000 team the third most likely to get the drop (3,111 sims).
  
• With the exception of Derby County, every team won the super league in at least one season!
  

Fun Stats

Out of the 10,000 seasons (3.8 million games) these were some of the fun things I found:

Stat	Details	Simulation
Highest Scoring Game	17 Goals: Arsenal 2001-02 4-13 Tottenham 2016-17	5667
Biggest Home Win	Chelsea 2009-10 17-0 Derby County 2007-08	3948
Biggest Away Win	Derby County 2007-08 0-16 Manchester City 2011-12	4345
Most Points	95 - Manchester City 2018-19	9340
Most Goals Scored	101 - Manchester City 2017-18	4497
Most Goals Conceded	203 - Derby County 2007-08	1929
Highest Goal Difference	+62 - Manchester City 2017-18	431
Lowest Goal Difference	-194 - Derby County 2007-08	1929
Invincible Seasons	0	-
Zero-point seasons	1452 (all Derby County 2007-08)	-
Best Derby County Season	16 points	9256
Total wins for Derby County	3571/380000 (0.94% winrate)	-

A Season in the Life of Derby County 2007-08

Taken from the 10,000th simulation.
Derby's first fixture of the season was welcoming Jürgen Klopp's 2018-19 Liverpool to Pride Park. In the August sun the Reds ran out 0-3 winners over the Rams to leave them tied for bottom of the table after matchday one. The following week they were thumped 4-0 on their first visit to Stamford Bridge by 2005-06 Chelsea. This result would send Chelsea top of the table and also let Derby reach the dizzying heights of 19th place on Goal Difference after 2012-13 Man United were battered 6-1 by 2013-14 Man City.
Things were looking promising after an impressive 2-2 draw over the Cristiano Ronaldo inspired 2006-07 Man United nearly brought them out the relegation zone and had fans dreaming of survival. Unfortunately this would be a false hope as a 4-0 loss to 2014-15 Chelsea and a 2-5 home loss to 2008-09 Man United would follow. On their first visit to the Etihad they bowed out to 2011-12 Man City 3-1 before losing 0-5 at home against Conte's Chelsea. A 2-0 away defeat to fellow relegation candidates 2012-13 Man United saw the Rams already 9 points away from safety after just eight games, though they had scored more goals than the Arsenal Invincibles!
Current champions 2018-19 Man City were next to be welcomed at Pride Park, and Derby put up a good fight by only losing 0-2. Next week the cousins 2013-14 Man City were not so kind as they ran riot in a 7-0 thrashing. 5-0 and 1-8 losses were next dished out by 2007-08 Man United and 2009-10 Chelsea. Pochettino's 2016-17 Tottenham side also enjoyed a 5-0 win on Matchday 13. The lowest point of the season was a 0-8 home loss to 1999-00 Man United, their worst defeat of the year.The next home game was 2004-05 Chelsea, the team with the best defense in history. Derby County did themselves proud and managed to score twice but ultimately lost 2-7 in a crazy game.
The defense continued to ship goals over the Christmas period; a 5-0 loss to the Centurions, a 0-7 defeat to the Invincibles, a 4-1 loss to 2011-12 Man United and finally a 1-8 hammering to Ferguson's final United team saw Derby County firmly rooted to the bottom of the table at the halfway stage. Relegation was almost a certainty at this point, but all the other positions in the league were anything but certain!
The second half of the season was no better for the Rams, they lost every single game from here on out but did nearly keep a draw in a 1-0 away loss to 2016-17 Chelsea on Matchday 21. Finally on Matchday 28 the Arsenal Invincibles sealed their fate, defeating Derby 4-0 to ensure their relegation to the 10,001st simulation of the super league, it was still only February!
With Derby relegated, eyes turned to the title race. 2018-19 Man City had built up a healthy 9-point lead over 2007-08 Man United during the late winter months. That lead would be cut down to 6 points with 5 matches remaining as Tottenham's 2016-17 side proved to be surprise candidates off the back of five wins in a row.
Disaster would strike Man City as two draws and two losses in the next four matches saw Spurs leapfrog them into first place by a point going into the final day of the season. Not only was the title still up for grabs, there were five teams still fighting for two Champions League spots and any two of 2011-12 Man United, 2001-02 Arsenal and 2012-13 Man United would join Derby County in relegation!
Final Standings
On the final day of the season everything went 2016-17 Chelsea's way as they crushed 2011-12 Man United 4-0 to jump from 7th place into the top 4 on Goal Difference. All three of the relegation candidates losing meant the bottom of the table stayed as it was. 2018-19 Man City managed a 1-2 away victory over Man United's 2012-13 team but it was too little too late as a nervy 0-1 away win for Spurs over Mourinho's 2014-15 Chelsea side saw them clinch the title... for the 612th time!

Ballparking Derby's chances of winning the Super League

Even in Derby's best season they still finished 19 points adrift from 19th place, so it's clearly going to take a lot more than 10,000 simulations before we see them challenging for the league even once, but we can make some sort of an estimate. The mean number of points accumulated by the champions was 73.8, so you'd expect a team to win the league if they get ~25 wins or ~24 wins and a few draws. Let's say that in any season in which Derby get 25 wins they win the league just to be on the safe side.
Throughout the 10,000 simulations Derby won 0.94% of all matches, though we can presume most of these were against the weaker teams in the Super League and so their win rate against any particular team would probably be smaller, let's call it a round 0.9% for simplicity.
The probability that Derby will win 25 or more matches out of 38 with each match having a winning probability of 0.9% is 3.5 * 10^-42 or 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000035%. In other words one would expect Derby County to win the Super League around once every 2.86 * 10⁴¹ simulations.
If every person on Earth ran a million simulations per second from now until the Sun swallows the Earth in 5 billion years they would still have only cooked up 1.21 * 10³³ simulations, a factor of 236 million fewer than the expected amount needed to see a win. i.e. we would need a quarter of a billion Earth's doing the task if you want to see Derby County sitting as champions before the Sun turns them all into plasma!

Conclusions

This was all a good bit of fun and a nice coding challenge for an amateur like myself. As mentioned before there are several big problems with the assumptions above though the biggest of all is probably the premise itself. It's unreasonable to assume that the average strength of the Premier League has remained constant over time, some teams may have been in a "harder" league and have reduced points tallies than if they were present in other years, meaning that the stats are out of their favour. As it is we can only use what we have, I think the end results are in line with what one might expect: the brilliant defence of Chelsea's 2004-05 side cancels out the terrifying attack of the recent Manchester City teams and both sit atop the rest as the best of the best.

Output folder

You can download the output folder for the 10,000 seasons [here], it contains the following .csv files:

• Teams: a folder containing the 20 teams in the league, each file has the 10,000 season end results for the respective team.
  
• 10000th season final table and 10000th season fixtures and results: full-season data on the subsection above.
  
• AvgTable: a raw copy of the Average Table.
  
• biggestawaywin, biggesthomewin, highestscoring: the biggest home/away wins and highest scoring matches for each of the 10,000 seasons.
  
• champions: A list of the 10,000 champions and the runners-up.
  
• crosstable: A raw copy of the crosstable.
  

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-12-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-12-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)

Jaguars ATS: 5-5-0 Titans ATS: 4-5-1
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 19.25 Titans 22.5

Jaguars

Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: #22
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): TE Seth DeValve (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: D.J. Chark vs. Adoree’ Jackson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): D.J. Chark (23%) Dede Westbrook (19%) Leonard Fournette (16%) Chris Conley (15%) Keelan Cole (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Leonard Fournette (71%, 15, 7) Ryquell Armstead (22%, 3, 2) Devine Ozigbo (7%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The return of Nick Foles (upgrade) didn’t go according to plan, as Jacksonville was throttled by the Colts, 33-13. Foles himself didn’t look too shabby, compiling 295-yards passing and two touchdowns with an interception in his first game back from a broken clavicle. Going up against a top-5 Run DVOA and a bottom-tier Pass DVOA in the Titans, one would surmise that Doug Morrone’s game plan would be to pass on TEN rather than run, but we also thought that should be the Colts game plan for Thursday Night Football and look where that got us... Either way, Foles gets the upgrade, it’s likely he’ll need to throw to overcome a suddenly surging TEN team fresh off an upset of KC - the Titans give up 17.6 FPPG to QBs and 23.3 to wideouts - consider Foles a back-end QB1 option.
It’s likely that waiver wire pickup of the year D.J. Chark (upgrade) is shadowed by stud CB Adoree Jackson. Jackson is ranked as PFF’s No. 36 corner this season (Rotoworld), so he’s no slouch. Still, Chark has earned every week WR1/2 treatment, and most wideouts have won their matches with Jackson over the last two years (Rotoworld). The loss of CB Malcolm Butler for TEN is big from a depth perspective, but Butler has hardly been elite this season. With Butler out and Jackson on Chark, it sets Chris Conley (upgrade PPR) up nicely with a date against CB LeShaun Sims (Rotoworld). Conley can be considered as a solid WR3 streamer this week in most PPR formats. Dede Westbrook (stash) also draws a solid matchup against Slot CB Logan Ryan, but he’s been hard to trust in lineups this season. With Foles back last week, he disappointed with a 4-30-0 receiving line on just 6 targets. It’s just one game however, and we saw in preseason plus Week 1 before Foles went down, how heavily Westbrook was used. Stash him if you can, but it’s probably best to take a wait and see approach before getting him in your lineup. JAX continues to be heavily injured at the TE position, with Josh Oliver (OUT) being the latest causality to hit the IR. No need to roster a JAX TE at this point.
RB Breakdown
After last week's blowout loss to IND, Doug Marrone mentioned that it was a “Big Mistake” not to run Leonard Fournette (downgrade) more often. While that may be, the lack of running game wasn’t the sole reason they lost. As long as Fournette continues to get the touches, he’ll stay in the RB1 ranks. This week projects as tough sledding though, TEN ranks 4th in Run DVOA, only gives up 102-yards rushing per game, and cedes only 17.7 FPPG to RBs. Start Fournette as usual, just keep expectations in check. His volume and passing game usage have kept his floor high all year, and it seems likely that positive touchdown regression is coming. Ryquell Armstead remains Fournette’s handcuff.

Titans

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #30
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): OL Kevin Pamphile (D) TE Delanie Walker (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Delanie Walker (18%) Corey Davis (16%) A.J. Brown (15%) Adam Humphries (14%) Jonnu Smith (11%) Derrick Henry (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Derrick Henry (71%, 25, 2) Dion Lewis (29%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Unfortunately for us Oregon Duck fans, the Ryan Tannehill (downgrade) experiment is going swimmingly as the Titans are now 3-1 with the Texas A&M product at the controls. You weren’t starting him in any format anyway, but JAX has been significantly tougher to beat through the air than on the ground, so the volume shouldn’t be there to consider streaming the journeyman QB - JAX cedes 17.8 FPPG to QBs and 20.7 FPPG to WRs.
Along those same lines, you shouldn't be considering any of the TEN receivers either, the volume just hasn’t been there. A.J. Brown is seeing the most targets with Tannehill under center, but averaging only 5/6 per game. That’s just not enough to bank on. Corey Davis and Adam Humphries are the same story. It’s expected that Delanie Walker sits again this week even though he’s returned to practice, making Jonnu Smith a viable streamer for one more week. Consider him a low-end TE1 while Walker remains sidelined - JAX gives up 7.4 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
If you took the risk on Derrick Henry (upgrade), congratulations, you have been handsomely rewarded. The former Alabama running back has crushed his way to the overall RB7 position, and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. On tap is a matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, fire up Henry as usual - JAX gives up 134.6-yards a game on the ground, plus 21.1 FPPG to RBs. Henry should again vie for the overall RB1 finish this week. Dion Lewis (downgrade) just isn’t seeing the field enough to warrant consideration in any format.
Score Prediction: Titans 27, Jaguars 24

Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Cowboys ATS: 6-4-0 Patriots ATS: 7-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Cowboys 19.5 Patriots 26

Cowboys

Opp (NE) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (NE) Run DVOA: #13
Injuries to Watch DEF (NE): LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Q) S Patrick Chung (Q) S Nate Ebner (Q) CB Jason McCourty (Q) DE John Simon (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): OG Connor Williams (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Stephon Gilmore (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Michael Gallup (23%) Amari Cooper (22%) Randall Cobb (16%) Jason Witten (14%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Ezekiel Elliot (89%, 18, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Cowboys picked up a much needed win against the Lions last week, but now head on the road to play one of the best teams in the league. Dak Prescott (downgrade) has turned out to be a huge draft bargain for owners that snagged him, as he a top-5 fantasy QB on the season in most formats. However, the Patriots boast the #1 pass defense DVOA, and have given up the fewest FPPG to QBs this year. The only QB to really break them down was Lamar Jackson, and while Prescott does have quality mobility in the pocket, he’s certainly no LJax when it comes to dual-threat abilities. Prescott is still a low-end QB1 due to his weapons and quality play all year long, but owners would be wise to weigh their options before plugging him into lineups. The Cowboys low projected team total is concerning, and the Patriots have been a machine at creating turnovers.
While it doesn’t provide owners much solace in retrospect, Amari Cooper (downgrade) admitted a knee injury limited him against the Lions last week. He claims that the injury won’t affect him this week, so he’ll be close to 100%. However, the bigger concern is the Patriots ability to shut down #1 WRs, more specifically Stephon Gillmore’s shut down abilities at CB. Cooper will likely see Gillmore in shadow coverage most of the day, so he’s deserving of a slight downgrade. In previous seasons, Cooper had been extremely susceptible to shadow matchups, but he seems to have overcome that somewhat this year. While a low-floor game is possible, Cooper should still be fired up as a high-end WR2 in this tough matchup. Michael Gallup may benefit from the increased attention to Cooper, but the rest of the Patriots secondary isn’t exactly exploitable. The Patriots have given up more than 200 yards passing only twice this year, so its unwise to expect a big day from any Cowboys receiver (Rotoworld). Instead, consider Gallup a solid WR2, and fire him up in most season-long leagues while avoiding him in DFS formats. Randall Cobb (bench) has been surprisingly productive the past two weeks, but is best to avoid this week against the Patriots. He’s no more than a WR4 this week, but should still be owned in most leagues, especially in PPR formats.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys have gone away from their run game slightly the past two weeks, instead focusing on their electrifying passing game. That may change this week, as the Patriots will likely limit Prescott’s ability to fling the ball around at will, and the game-flow may dictate a grind it out defensive battle. Ezekiel Elliot (auto-start) remains a true workhorse, playing 89% of the snaps last week, and may be asked to carry the offense this week with the Pats slightly more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They still give up the fewest FPPG to RBs, but the Cowboys elite offensive line will make this a matchup to watch. Consider Elliott an elite RB1 this week on volume and talent alone, as he can get his points in a variety of ways.

Patriots

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #19
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Joe Thomas (Q) S Donovan Wilson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NE): QB Tom Brady (Q, expected to play) OT Marcus Cannon (Q) WR Phillip Dorsett (Q) WR Julian Edelman (Q, expected to play) RB Damien Harris (Q) WR Mohamed Sanu (Q, likely OUT) WR Matthew Slater (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Julian Edelman (25%) Mohamed Sanu (18%) James White (17%) Phillip Dorsett (13%) Rex Burkhead (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: James White (38%, 9, 7) Sony Michel (26%, 12, 4) Rex Burkhead (25%, 7, 3) Brandon Bolden (12%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It’s hasn’t always been pretty, but Tom Brady and Bill Belichick continue to find ways to win. This year, it’s been 100% due to the Pats outstanding defense, as Brady has been mostly relegated to an elite game manager in his old age - well that, and the lack of elite offensive weapons around the GOAT. The Cowboys have been very good against the pass from a fantasy standpoint - only giving up 14.8 FPPG to QBs, and 16.8 FPPG to WRs, 4th best - but their DVOA metrics show that they boast a bottom-half secondary. Regardless, it’s hard to recommend Brady as a sure-fire QB1 with all the injuries piling up on offense.
Mohamed Sanu (ankle) and Phillip Dorsett (concussion) are likely out for Sunday, although they haven’t been formerly ruled out yet so be sure to check back before kickoff. That leaves Julian Edleman (upgrade volume), and rookies N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers to hold down the fort. Outside of Edleman who can be considered an every week WR1, there isn’t much to like here. Harry caught 3 passes for 18-yards in his Patriots debut last week, but only played 32 snaps. Meyers played even less last week, catching just 1 pass for 7-yards. He has largely been out of the rotation when all the other NE wideouts are healthy. If you must stream a Patriots wideout, it seems like Harry is the better bet, but the matchup isn’t great, plus it’s nearly impossible to predict where the volume goes week to week in Belichick's game plans. It’s just as likely that the running backs or tight ends pick up the slack, rather than the rookie wideouts. Ben Watson has played a near full time role in the last four games, soaking up 11-15 targets for 124 scoreless yards (Rotoworld). He can’t be trusted as a TE1, but does have some streaming appeal considering the injuries to the receiving corps - DAL gives up 8.8 FPPG to TEs, 5th worst.
RB Breakdown
Dallas has been decent against the run this year, but they will be missing their best run-stopping linebacker in Leighton Vander Esch. This is great news for Sony Michel (upgrade standard), who has mostly disappointed this year - failing to clear 100-yards rushing in a single game so far - his six rushing touchdowns have saved his value. DAL has given up one rushing touchdown a game so far in 2019, 23rd worst in the NFL, so it’s likely that Sony finds his way into the endzone again. That is, if touchdown opportunities are not vultured. New England played four running backs last week, as James White (upgrade PPR), Rex Burkhead, and even Brandon Bolden saw snaps. Michel and White are the only two that should be considered, with Michel better suited for standard formats and White for PPR.
Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Dallas 17

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Packers ATS: 7-3-0 **49ers ATS: 5-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Packers 22.25 49ers 25.25

Packers

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (GB): OG Cole Madison (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Davante Adams (27%) Aaron Jones (13%) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (12%) Jimmy Graham (12%) Geronimo Allison (12%) Allen Lazard (12%) Jamaal Williams (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Aaron Jones (50%, 13, 0) Jamaal Williams (50%, 13, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Held in check Week 10 by a solid Panthers secondary, Aaron Rodgers (downgrade) comes out of the bye to face an even more impressive defense. The Niners rank as the second best pass defense by DVOA and have given up the second fewest FPPG to QBs this season. Rodgers’ entire group of weapons is healthy, and he looks as impressive as ever in terms of efficiency and ball placement. However, the biggest difference this year has been his lack of TDs, as the running backs have vultured a huge number of the scoring opportunities. Now going up against a vaunted Niners pass defense on the road in a game that has the makings of a defensive grind-it-out type battle, Rodgers is deserving of a downgrade this week. He’s still a solid top-15 option, but is outside the top-10 for us this week. If you have a safe alternative option with higher upside, benching Rodgers wouldn’t be the worst call. Rodgers floor has been relatively safe this year, scoring under 12 points just once, but his ceiling is capped by the lack of TDs and the difficult matchup.
Somehow still searching for his first TD of the year, Davante Adams is healthy and ready to return to his WR1 ways. This might not be the best week for a blowup spot, but Adams has been a target share monster when healthy this year. He was able to push through a tough matchup against the Panthers before the bye in Week 10, and should have little trouble producing a solid line again this week. The Niners are a shy-away type matchup - 7th fewest FPPG to WRs - but Adams is too talented and too secured of a role to consider benching. The Niners also don’t shadow receivers, so Adams will be able to lineup in different spots and find ways to exploit any hole or gap in the coverage. Expect Rodgers to pepper him with targets, and view him as a WR1 this week on volume and talent alone. Unfortunately for the Packers secondary targets, the volume and consistency just hasn’t been there. With Adams healthy, none of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (drop), Geronimo Allison (deep PPR), Allen Lazard (drop), or Jimmy Graham (downgrade) have been able to surpass 6 targets in the past two weeks. MVS saw his snap % drop to 16% in Week 10, so he is drop in most formats at this point. Allison could have some deep PPR value down the stretch, but is also a drop depending on league size and depth. Lazard has actually been the #2 WR the past two weeks for the Packers, but is unlikely to be a worthwhile target the rest of the way. Graham is worth rostering in most leagues, as the TE position is so shallow and Graham has shown some big-play and red zone ability this year, but this likely isn’t the week to use him. The Niners have given up the second fewest FPPG to opposing TEs, and Graham’s floor is extremely low if he doesn’t score a TD. Keep him on benches this week.
RB Breakdown
Despite having only three games with 100+ total yards, Aaron Jones (auto-start) has been able to churn out high-end RB1 value on the strength of 14 total TDs. The Niners are suddenly somewhat vulnerable on the ground - 19th ranked DVOA but 2nd fewest FPPG to RBs on the season - and the Packers boast one of the best run-blocking units in the league. Expect them to look to #establishtherun early on, and Jones should receive multiple opportunities near the goal-line. He’s still in a committee, but Jones is a solid RB1 again this week. The other half of the RBBC is Jamaal Williams (PPR RB2), and his pass-game chops and trustworthy hands have earned him a near 50% share of this backfield. With Jones getting almost all of the goal-line opportunities, Williams has scored most of his TDs on short passes, but Rodgers is the best graded QB in the NFL at throwing to his RBs (ESPN). Williams makes for an intriguing RB2/flex, but is more valuable in PPR formats due to his uncertain carry count each week. Both backs should likely be in lineups, but Jones has a significant edge on Williams due to his role as the goal-line back on one of the better offenses in the NFL.

49ers

Opp (GB) Pass DVOA: #16
Opp (GB) Run DVOA: #28
Injuries to Watch DEF (GB): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): OT Joe Staley (OUT) RB Matt Breida (D) TE George Kittle (Q) WR Deebo Samuel (Q) WR Emmanuel Sanders (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): George Kittle (25%) Deebo Samuel (18%) Emmanuel Sanders (15%) Ross Dwelley (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Tevin Coleman (49%, 15, 4) Raheem Mostert (49%, 8, 3) Jeff Wilson (1%, 1, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Despite missing many of his top weapons, Jimmy Garappollo (downgrade) shredded the Cardinals vulnerable secondary for 424 yards and 4 TDs last week. It’s not clear which (if any) of the injured Niners will return this week, but Jimmy G proved he can put up numbers in the right matchup. Unfortunately, the Packers have been quite stout against the pass this year, and this projects as a game the Niners will win with good defense and a solid running game. Green Bay has given up the 8th fewest FPPG to QBs but their pass DVOA has slipped the past few weeks to just about league-average. If all of his weapons are healthy, Jimmy G is worth consideration as a QB2 streamer, but if he’s working with Kendrick Bourne and Ross Dwelley as his top targets, it will be hard to roll him out there against a good defense. Keep an eye on the injury report before you consider plugging him into your lineup, and be wary of chasing the points from last week’s matchup against an Arizona team known for giving up big fantasy lines.
Saturday injury reports from beat writers suggest that the Niners may be close to full health in the passing game this weekend. George Kittle (upgrade if healthy) has a good chance to play and faces a Packers defense giving up the 3rd most FPPG to TEs. If he is active, and there aren’t any reports about a limited snap count, deactivate and drop Ross Dwelley, and immediately plug Kittle back into your lineup as a solid TE1. Emmanuel Sanders (downgrade) and Deebo Samuel are also expected to play, but both are listed as game-time decisions. If active, Sanders should be viewed as a low-end WR3 due to his solid volume but potential for re-injury and tough matchup. Samuel is also in the WR3 mix, as he is coming off back-to-back 100+ yard receiving games. The Packers haven’t shadowed receivers since early in the season, but they do boast a quality secondary - they’ve given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs. Keep a close eye on injury reports leading up to kickoff, but be aware that tough decisions may be required due to the late evening kickoff. Proceed with caution with all three of the Niners top passing options, but your patience may be rewarded if this turns into a shootout (as Vegas projects with a 47.5 oveunder). Still, this is a run-heavy offense with a quarterback that hasn’t been overly impressive outside of his blow-up performances against the Cardinals, so keep expectations in check.
RB Breakdown
Well that was fun. Tevin Coleman (upgrade) and Raheem Mostert (flex deep-PPR) split the backfield with Matt Breida (doubtful) out last week, but Jeff Wilson (why?) outscored them both on his one snap and one touch, busting a 25-yard TD catch to seal the game for the Niners. Breida is likely to sit again this week, so we THINK that Coleman will lead the backfield with Mostert mixing in as a change-of-pace and on passing downs. However, in this backfield you just never know. The opportunity is there - the Packers give up the 3rd most FPPG to RBs - and the Niners will likely look to exploit it given Green Bay’s stout secondary. Despite the uncertainty, treat Coleman as a solid RB2 who is likely to bounce-back this week. Mostert is a flex option in deeper PPR leagues, but his role is less solidified and his chances of a TD are lower than Coleman’s. We like the Niners chances of having success on the ground, and Coleman is the likely beneficiary. Keep an eye on Breida’s injury status, as his involvement would complicate things.
Score Prediction: Packers 21, Niners 20

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

Seahawks ATS: 5-5-0 Eagles ATS: 4-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Seahawks 23.25 Eagles 24.75

Seahawks

Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA: #12
Opp (PHI) Run DVOA: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (PHI): S Ruby Ford (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SEA): TE Luke Willson (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Tyler Lockett (23%) D.K. Metcalf (20%) Jaron Brown (11%) Chris Carson (10%) David Moore (8%) Josh Gordon (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 10: Chris Carson (95%, 28, 4) Rashaad Penny (4%, 2, 0) Nick Bellore (1%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Seattle's defense has not been good by most metrics this year, but sometimes it doesn’t matter when you have the best quarterback in the league, Russell Wilson (upgrade). Philly got everyone back in their secondary at the beginning of November, and it shows in DVOA, they have steadily climbed the rankings almost into the top-10. Regardless, Wilson should be active in all lineups, he’s been too good to sit. PHI gives up 17.1 FPPG to QBs and a whopping 27 FPPG to WRs - but both of those numbers are heavily skewed by Philly’s injured secondary in the beginning of the season.
Tyler Lockett (upgrade) spent a few nights in a bay area hospital after a season defining win against division rival SF in Week 10, but he has healed over the bye week and is ready to rock and roll. This game carries the second highest projected point total of the week, and Lockett needs to be in all lineups. Both Lockett and D.K. Metcalf (upgrade) have been force fed fantasy friendly targets this season - Lockett has 8 end zone targets; Metcalf has 13 - Lockett has 17 deep ball targets; Metcalf has 16 (Rotoworld). Lockett is a WR1 and Metcalf an upside WR2. Josh Gordon was mixed-in last week, but still only saw a 37% snap rate. He’s a strong candidate to see the field more, but it’s likely that David Moore and Malik Turner stay in the rotation, spoiling Flash as a solid fantasy option. He should be stashed but not started. SEA continues to find fantasy relevant TE gold this year, with Jacob Hollister being the latest to breakout. Ed Dickson was placed back on IR Friday, after being activated on Wednesday, and Luke Willson is making his way back from a hammy injury. Still, with a dearth of options at the TE position, you could do worse, continue to roll Hollister out there as a low-end TE1.

RB Breakdown

Another congratulations seems in order, for those who took the leap and drafted Chris Carson (downgrade). He’s turned into an every week RB1, and most folks got him outside of the first three rounds during draft season. Great work. Sadly, PHI has a very imposing front seven - they cede only 86-rushing yards per game, and just 15.4 FPPG to the position. Still, Carson has earned every week RB1 treatment regardless of matchup, so get him active, just keep expectations in check. Rashaad Penny has essentially been a bust in the NFL to this point, Carson owners can handcuff if they feel the need, but he shouldn’t be rostered in shallow formats.

Eagles

Opp (SEA) Pass DVOA: #18
Opp (SEA) Run DVOA: #16
Injuries to Watch DEF (SEA): DE Jadeveon Clowney (Q) CB Neiko THorpe (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI): T Lane Johnson (OUT) WR Nelson Agholor (Q) RB Jordan Howard (Q) WR Alshon Jeffery (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Zach Ertz (25%) Alshon Jeffery (24%) Nelson Agholor (18%) Dallas Goedert (13%) DeSean Jackson (13%) Miles Sanders (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Miles Sanders (82%, 13, 4) Boston Scott (18%, 7, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Eagles season has been extremely up and down, resulting in a 5-5 record, yet they still have a window to make playoffs. That would involve getting ahead of the 6-4 Cowboys to win the NFC East, as the NFC wildcard is probably already locked up between SF/SEA/MIN. Carson Wentz has been dealing with a plethora of injuries to his wideouts, and it’s likely that he will again be without at least one. Due to the injuries, it’s hard to recommend Wentz as anything more than a low-end QB1/2 streamer, even in a good matchup - SEA gives up 18.8 FPPG to QBs and 23.1 to WRs.
Both Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are considered truly questionable for Sunday, but it’s not like Agholor should have been in lineups anyhow. Jeffery has been as touchdown dependent as they come, but if he suits up, he can be treated as a low-upside WR3. It’s unlikely that Jordan Matthews is relevant even with the injuries, so continue to fade the veteran wideout. PHI has been utilizing two-TE formations in the absence of Jeffery (Rotoworld), and will likely continue to do so with the injuries to the wideouts. Zach Ertz (upgrade) and Dallas Goedert (upgrade) continue to be the focal points of the passing game, and should be in most lineups moving forward - SEA surrenders 8.8 FPPG to TEs, 8th worst. Goedert himself is averaging 5.6 targets a game over the last 5 (ESPN), he needs to be treated as a low-end TE1 on a weekly basis.
RB Breakdown
With Jordan Howard sitting last week, Miles Sanders (upgrade PPR) was handed the keys to the backfield, but the tough matchup against the Patriots prevented any sort of breakout. Still, Sanders saw 85% of snaps, and if Howard is again inactive, he can be rolled into lineups as an upside RB2. Jay Ajayi is expected to be involved in some capacity, but he can’t be trusted in any format. It would not surprise us, however, if Ajayi managed to snipe a few goal line carries from the talented rookie. If Howard is active, the RBBC is likely in full effect again, relegating both Howard and Sanders to just flex status. Still, it seems likely than not that Howard sits again, as he hadn’t been cleared for contact as of Friday afternoon. SEA cedes 17.4 FPPG to RBs. It’s worth mentioning that All-Pro Tackle Lane Johnson is sitting, which could very well hurt the PHI run game.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Eagles 23

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Los Angeles Rams

Ravens ATS: 5-5-0 Rams ATS: 7-3-0
Projected Team Totals: Ravens 24.75 Rams 21.75

Ravens

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #17
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL): WR Chris Moore (D)
Key WCB matchups: Marquise Brown vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Mark Andrews (24%) Marquise Brown (21%) Nick Boyle (11%) Willie Snead (10%) Mark Ingram (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Mark Ingram (46%, 16, 4) Gus Edwards (40%, 8, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The MVP season just keeps rolling along for Lamar Jackson (cheat code). Although his only game over 300 passing yards was Week 1 against the Dolphins non-existent defense, he has more rushing yards than many teams’ starting running back. The Rams are aren’t an overly imposing matchup - 17th ranked pass DVOA and 12th fewest FPPG to QBs - but not even the Patriots vaunted defense was able to stop LJax. He’s likely to finish top-3 overall among fantasy QBs, and has a great shot at the #1 overall spot. Lock him into your lineup as usual.
The Ravens have been one of the more run-heavy teams in the league, and when they do throw, the ball is spread around quite nicely. The only consistent pass-game option for fantasy has been TE Mark Andrews (auto-start). Expect Andrews to remain Jackson’s main option moving forward, especially in a week where Jalen Ramsey will be shadowing the top WR for Baltimore, Marquise Brown (downgrade). Andrews is a top-6 TE1 again this week, while Brown is deserving of a downgrade due to the stud CB’s coverage. Ramsey has shut down almost ever WR he’s been matched up against, and Brown hasn’t been a high volume player since returning from his ankle injury. Brown is more of a WR4 this week, albeit one with the upside for a big-play TD every week, and should be benched if owners have a more trustworthy option. All other Baltimore pass-catchers are off the fantasy radar at the moment, so don’t get cute and consider starting Willie Snead, Seth Roberts, or Miles Boykin. The volume simply isn’t there, even with Ramsey’s attention on Brown, it would be impossible to say which WR would have a breakout week.
RB Breakdown
The Ravens have done an excellent job of distributing the carries to keep their stud RBs healthy. Mark Ingram (auto-start) has consistently received around 50% snaps and 15-20 touches, even in close games that may have tempted them to use him more. This is good for his long-term health and production, and it hasn’t hurt his ability to pop big games for fantasy owners. Gus Edwards (downgrade) also got in on the action last week, breaking a 63-yard TD run to finish with 100+ yards for the first time this season. It would be unwise to chase these points this week, as Edwards was on pace for his usual 4-8 points before the long run. The Rams are a tough matchup on the ground - 3rd ranked DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs - so Edwards doesn’t make for a good streamer this week. Ingram remains in the RB1 mix despite the tough matchup, and his involvement in all areas of the game on one of the best offenses in the NFL keeps his floor and ceiling as high as most elite backs.

Rams

Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #3
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #25
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): DT Michael Pierce (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): WR Brandin Cooks (Q) OT Rob Havenstein (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (season): Cooper Kupp (25%) Robert Woods (20%) Gerald Everett (15%) Brandin Cooks (14%) Todd Gurley (9%) Josh Reynolds (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 11: Todd Gurley (75%, 28, 3) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Rams offense has a lot of issues, but Jared Goff (downgrade) has been chief among them. Coming off a breakout season, many thought he would be a top-10 QB considering the high pace of the offense and his wealth of weapons, but instead he sits outside the top-20 in most formats. The Ravens are a tough matchup with their secondary at full health - giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to QBs - so it’s safe to bench Goff (or drop him) outside of deep 2 QB leagues. His fantasy playoff schedule isn’t overly favorable, but he does face the Cardinals next week, so perhaps consider keeping him on your roster for Week 13 before moving on to better options. The one factor Goff has going for him this week is that he’s playing at home, but that’s becoming a thinner and thinner argument these days.
The good news is that Cooper Kupp was able to get a catch last week after being goose-egged in Week 10 vs. the Steelers. The bad news: he caught three balls for 53 scoreless yards. The Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable to slot WRs this season - giving up solid lines to Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry, Juju Smith-Schuster, and others - and Kupp is likely to be extremely active as Goff’s top target this week even if he gets Marlon Humphrey in coverage. Consider Kupp on the WR1/2 borderline, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him breakout of his slump with a big game on Sunday. Brandin Cooks (downgrade) is likely to return this week, but will face tough matchups on the outside and is becoming a dangerous re-injury threat every game. Consider him a boom-bust WR3 that has a low floor in this suddenly deficient offense. Robert Woods has been able to put up decent lines despite his lack of TDs (1 total) and remains in low-end WR2 range for this week. He should be in your lineup, but owners shouldn’t get their hopes up for a “boom” week. Gerald Everett (downgrade volume) surprisingly saw only 25% of the snaps last week, and now looks to be part of a 3-way timeshare at TE. The Rams should look to establish the run again this week, considering that is the Ravens weakness, so Everett is a only a TE2 while splitting time with the run-blocking TEs on the Rams roster. There are likely better streaming options.
RB Breakdown
Sean McVay finally unleashed Todd Gurley (upgrade) last week, and while he still looks like he’s lost a step this year, the results were quite positive for the Rams. He racked up 100+ total yards for the first time since Week 1, and dominated both the snaps and touches in the backfield. The Ravens aren’t an overly imposing matchup on the ground - 25th ranked run DVOA but 8th fewest FPPG to RBs - and with Goff struggling, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rams go back to Gurley for 20+ touches again this week. The issue will be whether he can hold up to that type of workload, but with LAR in must-win mode, it’s now or never for Gurley. He’s been off the injury report through practice this week, which is a great sign after such a heavy workload. Consider Gurley an RB1 this week, as his increased usage in the pass-game would be a huge positive development for his value. Malcolm Brown (stash) remains a premier hand-cuff due to his position behind Gurley’s balky knees, but he has almost no standalone value at this point. Keep him rostered if you have the space.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Rams 20

I remember a lot of people having a hard time after our most recent playoff exit. There were people calling for Drew’s head. Potter said he was saying goodbye to Reddit as it was too stressful (but also got a big job promotion too) to read everyone’s negativity day in and out. The sub was in disarray. But it’s important yearly to always look forward to next year if this year isn’t ours. The rebounds you gain from failures are just as important to your victories. The fact that after X amount of time, your team starts on a level 0-0 record to try again. That faith is what keeps you going every season. It’s the reason On Sundays, you save 4 hours of your day dedicated strictly to your team. I’m going to outline some of my favorite sports teams failures just in the past year or so and how these failure/shortcomings are only temporary. (Please forgive my formatting im on mobile)

New Orleans Saints:

As we all know, this season didn’t end well... almost didn’t start well either. After an absolute nail-biting, butt-clenching, vulgarity-fueled last second win against Houston, our season’s biggest game and probably one of the most anticipated regular season matchups of note against the Rams was a disaster. We got punched in the mouth, took an arrow to the knee a thumb to a helmet and our golden boy went down. You can tell immediately he’s done on the sidelines. The Saints quit and the Rams are the one marching on in victory. The team fights back and somehow do great things. Teddy becomes a household name, Drew gets records, CGM gets records, team wins division, earns playoff spot... you’re probably saying “Briguy_fieri, that’s not a lot of negative things.” You’re right, it’s not. But that’s when the worst things happen. When you think you’re untouchable, when you’re brought down to earth it hurts more than never having a shot. Saints play like absolute shit and get absolutely embarrassed at home (again). Season is over. One of our best regular seasons ends in the wildcard week. Wonderful. Now, I’m not going to dive deep into this, but the Gayle Benson news is not the best. Don’t say “nothing happened” because we know as much as /NFL holier than thou’s. We don’t know anything and if/when something does come out, I don’t want to eat crow by blindly defending her. We need more details until this thing passes. Either way it’s not a good look. Drew could be on his way out. We’re in the twilight moments of the best player our team has/might ever see(n). We’re back in a tight spot financially for now.
But just like everyday, there’s a bright for every dark. Our god tier receiver is locked up. Our defense is playing great with no glaring holes. We’ve hit on the last few drafts giving us studs everywhere. We finally will get to see Sean groom our future franchise player and take over for drew. If drew does leave, we have the coach, the roster, the scouting, and the best fans to help take the division again.

Tampa Lightning

For those unaware, yes I love hockey. I’ve actually liked hockey longer than I have football. I’ve followed Tampa since 1999 when Vincent Lecavalier became an NHL video game cheat code. Tampa has had some absolutely terrible teams on the ice. Like some of the all time worst. But last year, the had the legitimate all time greatest single season in history. They had 62 wins and 20 losses. For as good of a team as the Saints had last year... multiply that by like 20. They were dominant in a way non-hockey fans can’t understand. Every night, they were going to score more than you, hit you hard, and embarrass you on defense. You weren’t going to outscore this team. They cruised through the regular season and faced a team who secured a playoff spot on the last night of the season. The worst wildcard team, the Columbus Blue Jackets, were a team that somehow lucked and clawed themselves into the playoffs. On paper, you’re betting the house on Tampa taking this series. It’s easy money. Tampa opens up the first game with a quick 3 goal lead and that bet is looking smart.... until they blew the lead and lost 4-3. Over the course of the next 3 games, Tampa got wrecked by being out scored 15-5, never leading a game the rest of the way. They got swept, by a team that had never won a playoff series EVER. Imagine their entire season summed up as 28-3, where 28 is the regular season. Imagine the 18-1 patriots getting beat in the wildcard round. It makes no sense, but here I am still trying to wrap my head around it. Them getting curb stomped was the #1 post on /hockey for a few months and only got outed by Kobe passing away, the most hated player in the league losing the game on a Marcus Williams type fluke, and the leagues Lovable Losers St. Louis Blues winning their first ever Stanley Cup. Tampa’s offseason was pretty tame as their stacked roster didn’t have any key departures and most of their stars were locked up into the future on good contracts. The window nailed open for now as the Lightning (who started slowly) are now a top 3 team in the league again.

New Orleans Pelicans

The worst kept secret in the NBA was Tony David (real name Anthony Davis) looking to leave New Orleans. Homie amassed a large sum of money, and then legitimately quit on his team. He handcuffed his team with trading suitors by demanding the Lakers as the destination to play alongside his buddy Lebron. He became a locker room issue, took potshots at the team, and gave 0 effort until the season was over. The pelicans were called the worst run franchise by the media (suck a fart Colin Cowherd). Members of ESPN hinted that we should be forced to relocate to Seattle as we were deemed unworthy of a team (suck a fart Mike Wilbon). We were a laughingstock as the odds of us getting a good draft pick were slim as we had enough wins to give us a bad %. We got a new and highly respected GM, but someone who had been outbid the league for a few years. But then... the lottery happened. All of the teams with better odds of getting the number 1 pick got their ping pong ball pulled before us. They announced the Pelicans with the first pick and suddenly we forgot about Tony David. He got traded for a slew of picks and a high profile young core from LA. We drafted Zion Williamson, an Internet sensation who was hyped up since he was a sophomore... in high school. We got “stans” from /nba over Lonzo Ball. Brandon Ingram had the biggest upside from the laker group and has currently flourished into a league star. Zion has only played a handful of games, but has been as electric as advertised. The team started off slow, but is right in the thick of the playoff hunt. This team has a huge bright side of youthful talent and a stockpile of picks to keep us in the dark horse team of the league for years to come.

Colorado Rockies

Last year for the Rockies was terrible all around. Coming off a Wildcard game victory against the Chicago Cubs, the Rockies had mile high expectations that turned out to be an under sea level performance. Injuries plagued the team. The bullpen went to hell. The batting order forgo how to hit. Fielding was riddled with errors. The Rockies missed the playoffs, but the disaster didn’t stop there. Rumors started floating that superstar third basemen Nolan Arenado was being shopped. Despite saying he wanted to stay with the Rockies (after signing a team friendly mega deal), the team did nothing to refute the rumors. Weeks went by, where rumors continued to build only for the GM to say they were actively listen to offers. Nolan responded with vocal attacks on the GM saying how he felt disrespected, unwanted, and lied to. And he’s right. The Rockies offered him a huge contract with promise of continued playoff appearances and building a competitor. The Rockies this offseason have signed 3 players (2 to minor league contracts) and one of those was a former Rockies pitcher who hasn’t been the same since about 2013. Think of it like if the Saints brought back Colston this year if he didn’t retire. While baseball teams reported to spring training last week, Nolan was doing individual workouts/practices at a different stadium apart from the team as a silent protest of sorts. While this story is unfinished, if Nolan (a legit generational talent and has an argument to being called the best player in the game) is traded, several proposed deals include some of the best league prospects that would give the Rockies a young team with high potential at various positions. One proposed deal would be a straight up trade with the Cubs for Kris Bryant, a slight step back from Arenado but gives no drop off at the position. We still have solid pieces at shortstop and the outfield. The prospects gained could shore up our holes elsewhere. Either way, while trading Nolan is highly unpopular, it might be enough to get the GM fired and cause ownership to right their wrongs.

Manchester City

City in the last 12-15 years have become a consistent title threat in the English Premier League and various European club tournaments. With the ownership change in the early 00s, City has had a world of funds at their fingertips to purchase the contracts of the best players and coaches in the world. With aspirations to win the league again this year, they slipped up a few early easily winnable games. Since then, Liverpool took the league lead and continued on holding that lead. Similar to my mention of Tampa’s dominance earlier in this post, Liverpool is having one of the all time greatest runs in league history. Those repeat title goals are basically shattered with only 3 months left of The season. But then news broke of a massive ban placed on City. They’ve been banned from the biggest tournament outside of the World Cup (costing them massive amounts of money... like 2 Michael Thomas contracts type money just from this tournament) for violating Financial Fair Play. I’m not too sure of the specifics of what it is, but apparently it has to do with spending more than your team made from sponsors. With City’s owners deep pockets, they probably used some of those funds to purchase player’s contracts. On top of the ban, they were fined 60 million as well, an unprecedented act. There’s rumors of stripping of their titles as well but nothing concrete about that. Like most sports, players go to where the money and opportunities for hardware are. This ban puts a huge damper on City getting quality players to sign with them. More than likely, City will be reduced to a mediocre team for the next 5-6 years until they are able to build themselves back to relevance. But the futures not all gloom and doom. City has had a wonderful youth academy where the develop young teenage talent into world class players. City might use homegrown talent to weather the storm and build the future within. All City players so far said they will honor their contracts in full and not force their exit. The coach has echoed the same. City is appealing the punishment in hopes it gets reduced or removed. They believe they are being singled out when handful of teams are also under the same violations.
I’m not really sure why I decided to spend an hour+ writing this out. I saw so many people posting sad “were about to suck again” type posts here. Lots of people questioned staying a fan after the continuous playoff exits. Lots of people left after news of Gayle (my initial reaction was an overreaction until i actually dissected what was said, I admit). I’ve used sports as one of my vices since I was a kid. I played it to make friends and find a healthy way to let out aggressions. I watched it to develop my game like particular players. I joined Reddit to talk about it. All of my favorite teams have been awful throughout their history. The saints were not relevant until 2006. Tampa was terrible until the mid 00s. The Pelicans have had good players, but really only have a handful of good seasons since their move to New Orleans. The Rockies only had 4 playoff seasons since I’ve been a fan and they only made it past the first round twice. City until about 07 was an unknown club that only had the claim of being the childhood favorite of Oasis. This is all small sample sizes of teams history. 2 of those teams were formed when I was about 5 years old. Year in and year out all our lives are filled with personal struggles. Depression, loss of loved ones, divorces and breakups, unemployment, medical issues, artistic/creative roadblocks, failed investments... life sucks sometimes. But as is the case with life, when there’s dark, light is sure to follow. We use sports as that guiding light. That’s what we turn to as an escape from life’s hard times. Sports are just games at the end of the day. Games that are a huge part of our lives, but still just a form of entertainment for us. But just like every game, when it ends, you always have the opportunity to a rematch and start over. If it doesn’t end the way you want, keep the faith and wait for the new day to come.