Albeit a week late, I want to share my 2021 portfolio for documentation purposes and for whoever is interested. I aimed to balance risk in this portfolio with some growth names and legacy plays. Down to brass tacks, I am putting my money in the highest quality companies (in my view) across a diverse set of industries I find attractive. Some of these names are overvalued in the short term. However, I have realized I am not in the business of beating Wall Street’s pricing, but would rather hold high-quality companies that I believe will grow faster that the market in the long term. In other words, I am totally fine paying a short-term premium for growth and quality. Below is a summary of the portfolio and big picture reasoning behind each investment. I'm definitely open to any feedback.
Company
Ticker
Entry Price
Exposure
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF
ARKG
$93.26
6.60%
CrowdStrike
CRWD
$211.82
11.78%
Disney
DIS
$181.18
10.53%
Enphase Energy
ENPH
$175.47
7.98%
Evolution Gaming Group
EVVTY
$101.02
12.77%
Facebook
FB
$273.16
11.05%
Redfin
RDFN
$68.63
10.41%
Teladoc
TDOC
$199.96
9.60%
Sea Ltd
SE
$199.05
14.09%
Waste Connections
WCN
$102.57
5.19%
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS: ARKG) - Invests in companies advancing genomics. The companies held in ARKG may develop, produce or enable: CRISPR, Targeted Therapeutics, Bioinformatics, Molecular Diagnostics, Stem Cells, Agricultural Biology.
Innovative industry. Since 2003 the cost to sequence a human genome has dropped from nearly $3bn to less than $1,000. ARK believes that as costs continue to drop, genomic sequencing will become a standard of care in oncology. It will introduce more science into healthcare decision making, enable personalized medicine, and accelerate drug discovery. ARK estimates that genomic sequencing revenues will grow 43% at an annual rate, from $3.5bn last year to $21bn in 2024.
Cathie Wood. She’s a beast stock picker. Out of all the ETFs she runs, her closest competitor trailed by 60%. Her worst ETF still doubled investors' money. Her strategy is to make investments into companies that she considers incredibly transformational and she has seen success doing it.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) - Cybersecurity technology company that provides endpoint security, threat intelligence, and cyber attack response services.
Best in class technology. Remember about a week ago a bunch of Russian hackers breached SolarWinds? The same hackers also tried to hack CrowdSrike at the same time but were unsuccessful. I’ve wandered on to a bunch of cybersecurity forums, and the general consensus is CrowdStrike has developed the best cybersecurity solution by miles. CRWD is the undisputed leader in cybersecurity.
“Pick-and-shovel” investment into the world’s increasing digitization. Even in the absence of COVID, cybersecurity remains a key component of the world’s increasing digitization as cyberthreats have been an ongoing issue from the onset of the internet. In the last decade we have seen a bunch of hacks where companies have exposed sensitive customer information. It seems companies are just starting to realize the importance of cybersecurity.
Disney (NYSE: DIS) - Worldwide entertainment company that you all are probably familiar with.
Reopening trade. In 2019, parks generated 45% of total operating income for DIS. Full reopening and attendance in parks will be slow, but certainly benefit DIS when it happens. The company has been executing on several other segments in the meantime (i.e. streaming). It has proved competitive, increasing the margin of safety if parks take longer to reopen.
Fast-growing streaming division. DIS has proved agile as it successfully launched a streaming service, Disney+, that has already gained 86mn+ subscribers which was the company’s original 5 year target. This is promising as it shows management can adapt to rapidly changing technology trends.
Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH) - Designs and manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control.
Shift to clean energy; ENPH emerging as market leader. Going into 2021, sentiments towards solar have been at an all time high. This trend is expected to continue, especially after the Georgia run-off results. Solar firms are expected to benefit from extended tax incentives on both the consumer and producer ends.
Technological advantage. ENPH has developed the industry leading solution and is rapidly taking market share from its primary competitor, SolarEdge. Pricing reflects this, but it's expected to continue. Among key competitors, Enphase has been one of the lowest cost producers. Its low-cost structure is a major contributing factor to its improving margins.
Evolution Gaming Group (OTC: EVVTY) - Swedish company that develops, produces, markets and licenses integrated B2B live casino solutions for gaming operators.
Early mover advantage. Evolution’s lack of competition enables it to rapidly grow in new markets and create a loyal customer base, with high switching costs. The company has effectively grown EBITA margins from 41.6% in 1Q18 to 64.8% in 3Q20. Margin expansion is expected to continue.
Massive untapped markets. Europe is estimated to be around $2.5bn (EVVTY has 50% market share), Asian market is ~15x the size of Europe (150% YoY growth for EVVTY in Asia). North America’s market is ~$210mn, a 42% increase YoY, with NJ and PA the only states currently operating (NY looks promising). Management thinks the US will be the largest in the long-term.
Undetected from Wall Street. Evolution has almost no analyst coverage in the US and very minimal coverage in Europe, presenting opportunity for additional growth as institutional money managers recognize this opportunity and draw attention to the stock. Additionally, Evolution has a founder-led management team that is highly aligned with shareholders (mgmt owns over 30% of the stock).
Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) - Enables people to connect through devices. It’s products include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Oculus.
Zuck. It’s not a question of who is the next Jobs/Bezos/Gates/Zuck, because Zuck is super young. He has a history of being able to execute: IG acquisition / transition from desktop to mobile / denying multiple acquisition opportunities in his twenties.
Undervalued. FB is the cheapest among the FAANG stocks, yet has some of the highest growth rates. This is mainly because of its continuous political scandals. With Trump out of office, I think FB has a chance to stay out of trouble and start to realize higher multiples. The antitrust lawsuit is not a threat imo, it is actually an opportunity. If the govt forces FB to break up, we would get shares in the spin-offs, which would be valued at a higher multiple than FB. For example, if Instagram spun off from FB and traded at the same multiple as SNAP, Instagram’s market cap would be larger than FB’s.
Digitization of Real Estate (i.e. “iBuying”). Technology in RE is moving from being informational to transactional. Redfin’s iBuying service is dubbed “RedfinNow.” The service basically buys homes from sellers looking for a quick and convenient sale (close deals within 10-30 days). This segment isn’t profitable yet as it is just getting started, but promising as the management adapts to technology trends.
Inter-US Migration and housing outlook. People are moving out of the cities because of COVID / trying to avoid taxes / etc. which increases demand for Redfin’s services. With interest rates extremely low (and no expectation for them to increase), homebuying demand should continue to grow.
RDFN most attractively valued compared to Z and OPEN, with the most upside potential given its market cap ~$7bn. Some are predicting RDFN might start offering rental services as well. RDFN has the best LT margin potential.
Teladoc Health (NYSE: TDOC) - Provides virtual healthcare services on a B2B basis to its clients and provides services to consumers directly and through channel partners.
Competitive positioning in industry ripe for disruption. Healthcare is a huge market yet to be significantly disrupted. COVID has accelerated this disruption. Providers who were once opposed to telemedicine now realize its benefits and several regulatory changes are promising for telemedicines growth potential. Medicare and other government-sponsored coverage is expected to include telemedicine benefits, increasing TDOC’s TAM.
Livongo acquisition. From the consumer POV, this will increase access to healthcare at a lower cost. Teladoc will have access to a larger amount of data it can interpret to refine its services and monetization strategies.
Sea Ltd (NYSE: SE) - Digital entertainment, electronic commerce, and digital financial services. The Company operates three business segments: Garena, Shopee, and SeaMonkey. The Company’s digital entertainment business, Garena, is a global game developer and publisher with a presence in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Latin America. Garena provides access to mobile and personal computer online games. Shopee provides users with a shopping environment that is supported by integrated payment, logistics, fulfillment, and other value-added services. SeaMonkey business is a digital financial services provider. SeaMonkey offers e-wallet services, payment processing, credit related digital financial offerings, and other financial products.
Diversified consumer internet company with market-leading position. Sea caters to Southeast Asia and Taiwan, providing its online gaming, e-commerce, and payment platforms. Shopee has overtaken competitors, it is widening its market share lead. ESports is a rapidly growing market (15.7% YoY to $1.1bn in 2020) and Sea is outpacing market growth.
Pay for quality. The best companies keep going up for years in a row, and I think Sea is in the early stages of being classified as such a company. It’s worth $100bn but has effectively proved its ability to identify opportunities and expand business lines.
Still early stages of developing its consumer banking business, so we get the security of a bigger, established company with upside for an additional, lucrative business line such as fintech.
Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) - Waste services company that provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services.
Recession resilient; re-opening trade. The waste management industry is recession resilient, it will always be around.
Non-hazardous waste collection. With a progressive government likely to push climate initiatives, recycling and non-hazardous waste collection are likely to benefit on the back end.
WCN has a large moat; there isn’t much of a competitive threat the way the industry operates. Management’s strategy is to generally only spend what FCF is available. This enables the company to make acquisitions while handling its debt load. Great for stable growth.
P.S. I have two other accounts - one with about 40 growth stocks and another with about 10 big names / ETFs. However, this portfolio has the largest allocation for 2021. My first time trying a more concentrated approach.
My opinion is that buying 10 shares at a time is better than buying in bulk, prove me wrong.
Hey guys, this post is not intended to tell you what to do. I'm not a financial advisor. This isn't my day job. I am not even a day trader. I learned the difference between call and put options like 3 months ago. I don't trade options. I don't even know how yet, to be frank. I recently got an RH account to try to learn how and then this shit blew up. This post is viewable to the general public and is not "insider knowledge". Everything I am about to say, I have gleaned from PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE DATA. That Hedge funds and other people in the media, the government, and in the general public ALL have access to. This is MORE VISIBLE than even Facebook. Let alone a country club or private "dinner party". Just saying. I am a real person. I am not a bot. I am not trying to screw anyone over. I like the stock I am choosing to gamble my disposable income on and think it will be a good investment regardless of the action over the next few weeks. 💎🙌 I CAN earn it back if I have to. I didn't stake my entire savings. I don't advise people to gamble with money they don't have. Not for financial reasons, solely, but more for mental health reasons. Bias disclosure: I currently have 1882 shares of AMC at an average price of 9.27$ and I occupied Wall Street for a bit after the financial crisis, mostly on reddit as I was in medical school at the time, and supported occupy the SEC. Please see my post history. It's all there in the top posts. I have nothing to hide as I know I am a valued member of our society, I pay my taxes, I treat mental illness, I follow the law, and I don't normally gamble. This is not about the money for me personally, it's about principle. It's my token of rememberance for the failed actions of our government to hold these types of people accountable for the great recession and the subprime mortgage crisis. Also, WSB just happened to stumble upon these criminal vulture firms, in the act of active company rape and decided to give them a licking. If you were interested in GME and were one of the people on the other side [IE at one of these firms] reading the discussion over at WSB should have been your job as a form of market research. If you missed the warning, it's not Reddit's fault. If you suck at your job, it's not Reddit's fault. I don't see how pinning them in that position was illegal. It wasn't planned, it wasn't private. It developed organically like a movement. It continues to grow. Silencing us will only make it louder. You need to level the playing field and regulate the markets. What they did to defend themselves was illegal. The manipulation of the market and the media was illegal. The restriction of buying was illegal. The algorithmic ladder attacks were illegal. Thus I will hold the line, as I HAVE been since Tuesday. It's been a wild ride and I'm tired of this shitshow. I want to get back to normal investing after this fiasco. It's much better for my sleep. *So here goes my theoretical question. AGAIN, I AM NOT saying you SHOULD do this. What you do is your call. I am asking if this has been done before or if it even can be done. I'm a n00b. Educate me. I'm trying to learn how the arena works. Like how it really works. If short ladders by algorithms are being used to artificially deflate the stock price. IE: tanking the price of AMC with low trade volumes that they simply pass amongst themselves. I think yesterday it was 5% buy and hold and 95% sell for AMC but each time with low volumes in a very predictable pattern. (Trey from the link below explained it very well several times better than me.)... What prevents retail traders from spacing out their purchase orders to 1-10 shares at a time and holding. Wouldn't that be better than just impulse buying 100 shares because you want in and you like the stock? Would it do the same thing as short laddering but in converse? Just curious. Would like to hear your opinions. I've been watching this channel to learn about AMC action and markets in general and it has been super educational. *I am not investing in AMC to make a quick buck. I am not a day trader or a pump and dumper. I am doing this because I think AMC will not die from the pandemic, was artificially deflated by vulture hedge funds, almost to the point of bankruptcy, and will NOW be able to pivot into a better business model with fresher screens, Hollywood exclusive releases, fancier theaters, pent up demand, etc., with the new capital and public interest. People LIKE the MOVIES. I grew up in NJ and movie theaters were a HUGE part of my life and many of my most memorable moments occurred at the movies. They make me warm and fuzzy. They have a certain nostalgia for me personally and I like supporting local business when I can. [I know AMC was bought by China, but the staff are all local]. In my opinion GME has an antiquated business model bc I buy games on STEAM and online. AMC was only struggling because of COVID and I don't think that otherwise people would completely stop going to the movies. We Americans LOVE going to the movies. I love going to the movies. That's just my opinion. Don't hate on me for it. I think that the "real value" of AMC is AT LEAST about 10-20$ which is what they were at before 2020 and it wasn't even their peak value. Even if the real value is closer to 5$, according to the arguments of experts, that's just their fucking opinion. It's a different situation now and I don't agree. Is that my right to disagree with them and pick my own stocks? Or can I only bet on what Fox Business tells me to. Or Jim Cramer. As an individual investor, am I free in this country to spend my money how I want on the stock market, or am I not? Am I free to make my own choices about whether to buy a stock or not? At least I think I should be. If I am not, it will solidify my opinion [and the watching world's opinion] that "free market" capitalism is indeed a farce. It will highly depreciate the value of the American dream and my respect for our current government. Which I was Ecstatic about during Election Day. [Disclosure, Bernie/Liz Bro, who voted for Biden and abstained from voting in 2016 due to bitterness about the primaries. Damn you DWS, you know what you did.] We all know the hedge funds sure are free to buy as much stock as they want to. Apparently even to buy stock that doesn't exist. WTF is that? Glad I found out now. Even if I lost 8k by betting it will be 10$ in 2022 rather than 5$ isn't it my CHOICE when to sell? Am I not free to HOLD the damn stock if in my opinion, I'm willing to consider it a tax on sending a giant reddit shaped middle finger into space to these people that rape companies regardless of the consequences to local staff? These parasites who prefer profit to morality and decency? Who sold their souls in the search of...what?...private islands and yachts? Let THIS MOMENT be your Memento Mori, you soulless motherfuckers. If you have any of it left, now is your time to search for it. Your actions will leave behind a husk of an economy and earth if left unchecked. We the Reddit "Retards" stumbled upon our teeth. For the first time the MARKET BITES BACK AND WE ARE NOT LETTING GO. WE ARE MAKING A STAND. FUCK YOU. We all know that the American Citizens will end up footing the bill anyway in taxes when all those people start relying on the government for survival after you motherfuckers artificially drive their employer into bankrupcy. FUCK YOU. You're already taking my money and you know it. I pay 47% in taxes due to my income and living in NYC. FUCK YOU for evading them with offshore accounts you GREEDY FUCKS. I am willing to lose 8k to do that (send you a message) and to rapidly learn about what is going on to manipulate markets. It's also partially the cost of education in my calculus. I have learned more in one week riding this wave, than in 4 years of getting my Economics degree. Either way, my current buy in as at 9.27 so I will hold at least until I make my initial investment back. I am also disclosing that if the stock goes up to 30$ I will likely SELL enough shares to cover half of my position because I am not a degenerate gambler and have been holding the line since Tuesday and it has taken a toll on my sleep and my sanity. I know I might lose some money and this is a crazy roller coaster. I want to get out most of my investment ASAP and then ride the wave to then END with you all. IF it happens. I know it may not. I don't care. The message seems to have been sent. Seems like they received it. But we don't know who will be regulated and how yet. I am tired of this fight. I don't like it. I don't want to do it anymore. But I stayed in for the principle not the principal, and for the people just finding out about this now to still be able to make a choice about what to do before we release them from the HOLD. This is a constantly evolving situation. Will they censor the media from talking about stocks? Why target Reddit? Reddit is LIKE the media. It's not a private chat room. THESE WORDS CAN BE READ BY ANYONE WITH AN INTERNET CONNECTION AND WE ARE AWARE OF THIS. If it falls, and I lose my money, I don't think the government will come in and save me. I don't expect them to. I EXPECT them to let this play out and not SIDE with these assholes. It upsets me that they seem to have decided to save Vulture capitalists. Anyway, despite my fear of posting this question and the associated rant, I really want to know the answer. Has it been done before by Algorithms pushing stocks higher? Is it possible to make a crowdsourced one? Is it legal? If this gets removed or censored in some way. You have your answer I guess. facta non verba. Thanks. ****IMPORTANT ADDENDUM****: I want to add that I was quite revved up when I wrote this and have had some time to reflect. I want to stress that it is not my intention to lay blame or judge any individual person or organization for the current situation [Of stacked odds in the retail investor vs hedge fund battle]. Emotions run high in the stock market. I know this through experience now. I was angry when I wrote this post. [I am leaving it unedited for posterity and since whoever needed to see it already saw it so removing it would be pointless] This should not become a witch hunt or be personal. These guys and girls are people too. They work for a corporation. They earn a paycheck. They have friends, partners, and families too. I am a person. You, reader, are a person. Don't make this personal. They didn't invent algorithms and weren't the ones that necessarily wanted to take these short positions. The market calculus at the time, dictated that this was a good call for them, it wasn't. We accidentally stumbled upon it on WSB and shit-posted about it until it blew up and they were really in a bind. I understand their calculus to a degree, but I am a "smooth brained" "retard" when it comes to these things. I am learning fast though. I understand that certain companies are likely to fail and it is possible to make a profit off that. My moral views about it are irrelevant as the situation they're in dictates their actions, not my personal views about that. I understand that they're getting screwed at the moment and I'm sorry. I truly hope most of them do not get too damaged by this and have had time to change their positions. But I also believe in the American dream, and think that the people that were able to find a good position in the stock market [the retail investors] should be rewarded. I sincerely hope this doesn't trigger a massive systemic issue and we don't accidentally BREAK the stock market with this action on those stocks. It doesn't seem like that would happen, but again smooth brain here. WE NEED THE MARKET TO STAY ALIVE to have peace and stability in this country. Reddit crew, I beseech you, please understand that the individuals involved are also playing by the rules given to them by the market. The problem I personally have is that the rules are different for the retail investors vs. the big institutions. I don't have a problem with them as people. I don't want to destroy anything or any institutions. That was never my goal as an activist nor as an investor-activist and I can only speak about myself. I just hope they could find it in their hearts to try to understand our outrage and consider playing by the rules or at least letting us play by the same rules. We are attacking them and they don't like it. I get it. In either case, please understand that I am not vested too strongly in either outcome anymore. I am tired and want to return to my regular life and will not be on reddit for a while, nor will I be investing any more money into the stock market for a while... The whole thing has taken it's toll on me and I am going back to my regular life. This is not my war. On the government's side, I also understand that their goal is to enforce the rules. I hope I'm not breaking any here and will remove my posts if I am. I am not trying to cause a revolution. This country has been through too much and we finally have a shot at beating COVID and have a competent administration that can guide us back on the right track. I truly believe that the people in charge now are decent people and will do good for this country. If Biden says no more diamond hands, I will listen to Biden. What I do further with my shares shall remain my business otherwise. I will no longer tell anyone what I am doing with my shares. I realize now that this is not always a good idea and should be done with tact and experience. I am not a financial advisor. But also, financial advice and being one is not a joke. I realize this now. MEMEing about stocks is like MEMEing about drinking bleach. People might listen to you and sacrifice their lives on a losing battle. Not everyone knows the stakes and not everyone knows what they're doing. Now that this is blowing up, people can get really hurt financially. Reddit, we could be putting people in danger. I see this now. So you all, too, reading this, PLEASE be careful. About investing and about what you say on social media. INVEST but INVEST RESPONSIBLY and not with money you can not bear to lose. I pledge that I will personally no longer post any inflammatory shit on Reddit. Because now I'm afraid that WE are suddenly some form of weird market makers and I don't have as many lawyers as the hedge funds. I am tapping out from posting any more about the current battle. I wish you all luck on both sides, truly. In the next round tomorrow. Dear Government: If you want this to end, don't you have the power to delist these "Meme" companies and distribute the shares somehow? If not, the the system is truly stronger than our institutions. If you do this, please make sure people don't lose their life savings somehow. That would be nice. Then, please try to make sure this won't happen again and that the SEC actually regulates and prosecutes people so their calculus isn't that the fines are too low to justify following the rules. [Just my humble opinion as a smooth brain with limited experience of markets. Do what you think is best and I will obey the laws as an individual]. Sorry you might disagree hedge fund guys and girls, but I am entitle to my opinion in a free country. This is my platform. You can have CNN and Fox News. Sorry for saying something. I promise this is the end of it. But also, a lot of market makers on TV seem to assert that the market will self correct and I don't see how this should be a large risk for overall wealth. Who knows, none of us can predict the future. But I think if a bunch of Reddit "retards" get a couple hundred thousand bucks, it won't change the overall situation or necessarily be a net negative; and may in fact trigger a renaissance in this country. You'll still be the biggest fish, just in a more biodiverse pond. It may just create a new class of petite bourgeoise in this country. But it is not likely that if they win, it will cause something like the French Revolution. There will be losers and winners, but in the end, it will be a good story for Hollywood. [Hopefully played on an AMC screen in a post covid world] But what do I know, I'm a just another "retard" on reddit. I hope that after this, you are all decent humans at the end and don't break any law on all sides. [Reddit, Retail investors, Government, Hedge fund investors, etc] I hope we don't break the market over this. If that is a true risk we need to make the market unbreakable or this WILL keep happening. If anyone is resentful about losing future gains on a good position so the government can fix the market, don't be a fucking greedy idiot and look at what we've achieved so far. This is already a big win for the small guy. And if our markets are vulnerable, the next winners will not be idiots on reddit. But will likely be our enemies from abroad. Not to name names. We will ALL benefit more from long term stability than short term gains. We MUST come together as a country so we can spend that money in the future for things. If we break the stock market, we will not be able to buy things with all that worthless money. But if the system isn't at risk, I don't understand what all the hullabaloo is about. There have been countless bubbles before. Why weren't those regulated as much. Maybe they were and I'm an ignorant smooth brain. In any case, I hope that we can stop fighting over carcasses for greed. This was always about making the rules of the casino fair for me, personally. It's not life or death. I'm not an extremist or an ideologue. It's not about burning down the casino. I hope that the government will intervene if they think it is going to short circuit the whole thing and that people reading this gamble responsibly. This will be my last post about this as I have a life to live. -Tememachine OUT. EDIT 2: Now they're making fun of the movement. Fuck Wall Street. I hope they get what's coming to them one day. [In terms of regulation and prison sentences] I'm still out of this war. But seriously. Fuck them.
I haven't seen a lot people who have talked about GNOG on this sub. GNOG is golden nugget online gaming and it's a great company to look into. They currently have a market cap of $2 billion but I think there is room for a lot of growth. The best thing is... THEY ARE PROFITABLE!! GNOG is in a fast growing sector. More and more states are allowing online gambling. They are mainly focussed on online casino but they do also offer sports wagering. Online casino is more profitable than sports wagering They have a very high growth rate. They grew revenues 55% just over the months of januari to april while the overall NJ market grew 40% in that time. This means they are taking more market share. https://preview.redd.it/itsfa0s22j861.png?width=1043&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0a92a105679b7303a7c4c70c107eddceb0d143a Golden nugget already is a well known name so they already have a ton of brand recognition. The owner is also Tilman Fertitta so you can expect a ton of pumps when he is on CNBC. Papa fertitty will get GNOG to the moon. The company just started trading under the ticker GNOG so it's still going to have huge price swings. But in the long run, if we look at what multiples DKNG is trading, this has potential. I got 1500 shares of GNOG cuz I'm way to big of a pussy to trade options.
EVRI: The True Autists Gambling Ticker Alright dipshits, I believe I have found a ticker that has huge growth potential over the next few months that is under the radar of many. So prepare your smooth brains and tell your wife's boyfriend to leave the room so you can jerk off to these potential gains. EVRI is Everi Holdings Inc. Don’t know what that is? They’re only “the casino industry’s only single source provider of robust payments solutions, vital intelligence offerings, and engaging gaming machines that power the casino floor” according to Casino Vendors (Source: http://www.casinovendors.com/vendoeveri-holdings-inc/) Now if that doesn’t make your wife’s boyfriend cream his jeans, then the following information might just make your dick hard enough to satisfy your displeasured wife. I think that EVRI could see huge growth for the following reasons EVRI has the versatility both online and on the floor for casinos Taking a look at this source (http://www.casinovendors.com/vendoeveri-holdings-inc/) you can see that there products and services include…
Gaming equipment and supplies: “Everi Games feature exciting original concepts, dynamic artwork, and thrilling game play that are designed to stop patrons in their tracks. Players seek out Everi’s award-winning games, cabinets, and toppers, and stream into casinos to play TournEvent® and TournEvent of Champions®”
Cash/Chips/Money/Money Handling Equipment: “CashClub® gives operators an easy-to-use single dashboard interface that streamlines check warranties and credit/debit card transaction processing. The software’s enhanced features include electronic signature capture and dynamic currency conversion. CashClub interfaces with Everi Compliance, which helps casinos meet Title 31 requirements. CashClub works with a casino operator’s existing cage workstation equipment, removing the need for a separate stand-alone terminal.”
“CentralCredit™ - The industry’s leading repository for casino-related credit data and reporting. QuikMarketing™ - This tool lays the foundation for highly targeted, cost-effective, and successful direct marketing campaigns.” and… “Intuitive, flexible & designed Kiosks to provide a premium experience to patrons.”
Administration and Finance: “Everi Compliance™ has new and innovative compliance products expanding our ability to service patrons and casino customers. Our compliance products are the gold standard for Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance across the gaming industry, which allows operators to easily meet Title 31 regulatory requirements.”
To see even more versatility and see what more specific services they provide, click this link https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EVRI/profile?p=EVRI Based off of these services alone, any one of you extra-chromosomes gamblers can see why EVRI is able to make money both online and on the floor, physical casinos. They make online gambling games, provide systems to protect casinos, design on the floor games, have products to transfer money in and out of debit/credit cards at the casino to feed the gambler, and even have business in reporting casino data and marketing campaigns. IF THIS ISN'T A COMPANY THAT DOESN'T DO EVERYTHING THEN IDK WHAT TO TELL YOUR SMOOTH BRAIN. They are immune to COVID and can be profitable with/without it. EVRI has great target prices from analysts and even has potential news coming up that can propel us Valhalla https://www.casino.org/news/everi-soars-on-digital-wallet-deal-with-winstar-casino/ “But Roth Capital analyst David Bain previously said two agreements with tribal operators notched by Everi account for 15 percent of the company’s fintech business and were going overlooked by investors.” This made the price target shift from $20 to $21 for this guy. This same article said this about David Bain as well “Today’s surge by Everi stock may not be a one-off event. Bain, the Roth Capital analyst, says another customer will roll out CashClub Wallet in the coming weeks. He didn’t identify that operator, but he did say it’s one of the largest casino firms in the world. The analyst adds that on a standalone basis, Everi’s fintech basis is worth $16 a share. When accounting for peer average multiples on gaming device suppliers,the stock could trade near $29, or more than double where it resides today.” I know some you have a hard time reading, but that means we could see news of EVRI’s own product (CashClub) be announced to be integrated in one of the largest casinos companies in the world. If that doesn’t scream PUMP, I don't know what does EVRI also has fantastic news of expanding, incorporating, and even being recognized as the best in their field Refer to this link on EVRI’s website with their Investors Information. You can scroll for minutes and find positive information everywhere including but not limited to. Everi Wins Best Slot Product and Best Consumer-Service Technology Awards for Second Consecutive Year from Global Gaming Business Everi Highlights Roadmap for Cashless Gaming Industry Leadership Golden Nugget Celebrates Its #777th Game on the Seventh Anniversary of nj-casino.goldennuggetcasino.com with the Launch of a Unique Custom Game Designed By Everi Everi’s CashClub Wallet™ Launches at WinStar World Casino and Resort Everi Digital Expands Relationship with Parx Casino, Delivering Additional Player-Preferred Slot Content for Online Real-Money Play in New Jersey EVRI’s option chain are cheap for long dated calls Because I am writing this after hours, the options chain will most likely change come market open, but keep in mind, they will still be cheap. Looking at January 20c and March 22.5c, they are .18 with a .05-.3 bid/spread and .2-.25. Yeah yeah yeah, I know what you’re thinking “oH tHE BiD aSK SpREad is TOO wIdE”. But if you guys seriously think the bid/ask spread is what has limited your autistic trades up to this point, then you’re just lying to yourself. Get your order filled, because were making fucking tendies. THE MEME POTENTIAL OF THIS STOCK IS PERFECT FOR US RETARDS Is there anything that is more ironic than a bunch of degenerate gamblers gambling on a gambling company that is so revered in the gambling industry that it’s not even a gamble? FUCK NO THERE’S NOT. WE ARE MADE FOR THIS TICKER, AND AS AUTISTS AND GAMBLERS WE NEED THIS PLAY. As many of you know, once a ticker catches fire in this sub it gets HUGE coverage. Look for yourselves at the countless memes and videos of WSB getting coverage on Cramers shows and news outlets. MEMES MEAN MORE ADVERTISING, MEANS MORE PUMPS, MEANS MORE TENDIES, WHICH MEANS MORE MONEY FOR DICK PUMPS. I rest my case. TLDR; EVRi is a fucking powerhouse in the online/in-person gambling/casino world. They have lots of news going for them along with having cheap calls, a well run business with great price targets, good price action movement, and most importantly infinite meme potential POSITIONS: 20 Contracts of Jan/15/2021 20c 15 Contracts of Ma19/2021 22.5c
Bovada Referrals - 2021 - Sister Sites and State + Country Restrictions Information
[This sub does not allow referral posts. Posting a referral code will result in a ban. Check the sidebar on Desktop or the About page on Mobile and Apps for full sub rules.]
Bovada Information:
Bovada Referral Link Offers sports betting, online casino, online poker games. USA only. Four states are excluded and those states are Delaware, Maryland, Nevada, and New Jersey. If you live in one of these four states, you can not play on Bovada. Same goes for players from other countries, you can not play on Bovada, try one of the sister sites and if you still cannot play, you are out of luck.
Sister Sites to Bovada and Referral Links:
Bovada Referral Links can be found in this post, as well as Bovada's sister sites.
LCA's online gaming in new Jersey has 69% YOY from October 2019 to October 2020. $28 MILLION in October 2020, nice! This is awesome, because thats they have focused their efforts on online gambling. Sports betting is not as big a revenue generator and as we know physical casinos have been hit hard because of the pandemic. I am bullish because I love YOY growth and I believe they are focused on the right sector within the gambling/gaming industries. https://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/PressRel2020/October2020.pdf OPES apparently has approved the extension. As we know, they are planning to open over 30 stores in 2021. They are also hoping to reach 25 ghost kitchens by end of 2021. They recently named a former Burger King exec as their CEO and I expect him to bring a great deal of expertise, as well as contacts in the marketing/PR world as well as nice vendors with good pricing options (if need be). BurgerFi is a better burger option in terms of quality, which is in sync with people who are somewhat health conscious but still want a good burger or red meat. Also, they cater to vegetarians with their Beyond Burger. I also like the Air Force Services deal, the fact that they are international already (Kuwait and Puerto Rico according to the presentation), and the benefits behind ghost kitchens (i.e. very low start-up cost) Check out their updated investors presentation here: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1723580/000121390020036538/ea129618ex99-2_opesacq.htm
This is going to outperform the market handily this year.Recent graduate to the TSX. Stock is nearly done consolidating i’d wager over the next 4 trading days we see a big bull candle and move on up. Its going to the naz before Q2 End. Does more rev than $GAN yet 3 times as undervalued. Why? Company had a terrible balance sheet. Big earnout they lost control of. New CEO joins in late august strikes a deal with owner of oryx (b2b online casino operatoaggregator brag bought) for shares in leu of cash owed. Huge float my guess is we could see a 2-1 or 3-1 reverse stonk split before naz uplisting. Brag has been spreading like a bad weed. Cant be stopped. Pending approval for online gaming/gambling licenses in NY and NJ. Were talkin Apollo 11 to the moon guys. Keep yer eye on it.
Sharing my experience, looking for help & motivation
This is my first post (and a long one), but I wanted to share my experience. Sense online sports betting became legal in NJ I would place small bets on sporting events. $1 bets on a parlay, maybe $5 or $10 max on a single bet. I would bet a small amount every week. It was money I had in my account and I would never exceed that. This went on for years and then COVID hit. I was let go from my job after 9 years and collecting unemployment satisfied me until about July - right when the extra $600 benefit expired. As a husband with a wife and family I started feeling depressed that I was not providing my family with what I should be. One night I discovered an online casino game, Dream Catcher Wheel, and started playing in July. I went from wagering $0.50 to $1; and when I was down occasionally ramped up to $5 or $10 dollars. Then it started. As losses accumulated I started wagering more and more. I opened credit cards, took cash advances, over drafted my checking account from July to October, racking up over $40K in debt. I started wagering $50, $100 then $200. Sometimes I would be up $15K, loose it all, wake up the next day and repeat. As a professional in the finance world, it was like what I lost wasn't a reality and the next day was a fresh start. I know I was smarter than this. I would still make sports bets during the period, but I chased the instant reward. I feel like a transformed into another person on the inside, I didn't let this affect my on the outside to others. I was still the same husband and father that I had always been and just wanted the easy way to bring in money for my family. It only takes minutes to gamble thousands. I did it to pay off existing debt, treat the family to vacations, gifts, etc. I did not gamble to be able to my myself something new. I just lost myself in the world of online gambling. In October I came clean to my wife and our families. I have their support (although I'm sure I will always be labeled with what I did) and would probably not be where I am now a few months later without them. Coming clean was the hardest part. I was ready to leave my house/family/kids because I felt they deserved someone better than me, someone who wouldn't gamble over $40K away that could have been used towards their weddings, college tuition, cars, birthday parties, etc. My kids are under 2 1/2 so they don't know what is going on, but obviously I feel like a failed as a father and husband. Other than the first week of coming clean I still have been the same husband and father - cooking for the family, cleaning, playing with the kids etc. but now its the mental demons I face with anxiety. I just completed an 8 week therapy program focused around anxiety, panic, depression - including talk of the gambling addiction, which led me to realize I have had anxiety issues for over 20 years, but I was able to hide it. I know this situation could have been a lot worse than $40K and its just debt I have to repay. I am not at risk to loose my house or family. I have my health and my families health. I will find another job that I love. Although these are positive factors, they negative factors of what I did come to the front of my mind. I can't forgive myself or not want to punish myself or this bad choice that I made. Its important to note that I no longer have a gambling urge, have not gambled sense mid October, however I came here to post this looking for your experiences, comments, suggestions. How can I move forward from this and not constantly think about what I did. I am getting professional help, but hearing from anyone with experience with gambling addictions could end up helping just as much as a professional therapist. Thank you for your time to read this!
Alright dipshits, I believe I have found a ticker that has huge growth potential over the next few months that is under the radar of many. So prepare your smooth brains and tell your wife's boyfriend to leave the room so you can jerk off to these potential gains. EVRI is Everi Holdings Inc. Don’t know what that is? They’re only “the casino industry’s only single source provider of robust payments solutions, vital intelligence offerings, and engaging gaming machines that power the casino floor” according to Casino Vendors (Source: http://www.casinovendors.com/vendoeveri-holdings-inc/) Now if that doesn’t make your wife’s boyfriend cream his jeans, then the following information might just make your dick hard enough to satisfy your displeasured wife. I think that EVRI could see huge growth for the following reasons EVRI has the versatility both online and on the floor for casinos Taking a look at this source (http://www.casinovendors.com/vendoeveri-holdings-inc/) you can see that there products and services include…
Gaming equipment and supplies: “Everi Games feature exciting original concepts, dynamic artwork, and thrilling game play that are designed to stop patrons in their tracks. Players seek out Everi’s award-winning games, cabinets, and toppers, and stream into casinos to play TournEvent® and TournEvent of Champions®”
Cash/Chips/Money/Money Handling Equipment: “CashClub® gives operators an easy-to-use single dashboard interface that streamlines check warranties and credit/debit card transaction processing. The software’s enhanced features include electronic signature capture and dynamic currency conversion. CashClub interfaces with Everi Compliance, which helps casinos meet Title 31 requirements. CashClub works with a casino operator’s existing cage workstation equipment, removing the need for a separate stand-alone terminal.”
“CentralCredit™ - The industry’s leading repository for casino-related credit data and reporting. QuikMarketing™ - This tool lays the foundation for highly targeted, cost-effective, and successful direct marketing campaigns.” and… “Intuitive, flexible & designed Kiosks to provide a premium experience to patrons.”
Administration and Finance: “Everi Compliance™ has new and innovative compliance products expanding our ability to service patrons and casino customers. Our compliance products are the gold standard for Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance across the gaming industry, which allows operators to easily meet Title 31 regulatory requirements.”
To see even more versatility and see what more specific services they provide, click this link https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EVRI/profile?p=EVRI Based off of these services alone, any one of you extra-chromosomes gamblers can see why EVRI is able to make money both online and on the floor, physical casinos. They make online gambling games, provide systems to protect casinos, design on the floor games, have products to transfer money in and out of debit/credit cards at the casino to feed the gambler, and even have business in reporting casino data and marketing campaigns. IF THIS ISN'T A COMPANY THAT DOESN'T DO EVERYTHING THEN IDK WHAT TO TELL YOUR SMOOTH BRAIN. They are immune to COVID and can be profitable with/without it. EVRI has great target prices from analysts and even has potential news coming up that can propel us Valhalla https://www.casino.org/news/everi-soars-on-digital-wallet-deal-with-winstar-casino/ “But Roth Capital analyst David Bain previously said two agreements with tribal operators notched by Everi account for 15 percent of the company’s fintech business and were going overlooked by investors.” This made the price target shift from $20 to $21 for this guy. This same article said this about David Bain as well “Today’s surge by Everi stock may not be a one-off event. Bain, the Roth Capital analyst, says another customer will roll out CashClub Wallet in the coming weeks. He didn’t identify that operator, but he did say it’s one of the largest casino firms in the world. The analyst adds that on a standalone basis, Everi’s fintech basis is worth $16 a share. When accounting for peer average multiples on gaming device suppliers,the stock could trade near $29, or more than double where it resides today.” I know some you have a hard time reading, but that means we could see news of EVRI’s own product (CashClub) be announced to be integrated in one of the largest casinos companies in the world. If that doesn’t scream PUMP, I don't know what does EVRI also has fantastic news of expanding, incorporating, and even being recognized as the best in their field Refer to this link on EVRI’s website with their Investors Information. You can scroll for minutes and find positive information everywhere including but not limited to. Everi Wins Best Slot Product and Best Consumer-Service Technology Awards for Second Consecutive Year from Global Gaming Business Everi Highlights Roadmap for Cashless Gaming Industry Leadership Golden Nugget Celebrates Its #777th Game on the Seventh Anniversary of nj-casino.goldennuggetcasino.com with the Launch of a Unique Custom Game Designed By Everi Everi’s CashClub Wallet™ Launches at WinStar World Casino and Resort Everi Digital Expands Relationship with Parx Casino, Delivering Additional Player-Preferred Slot Content for Online Real-Money Play in New Jersey EVRI’s option chain are cheap for long dated calls Because I am writing this after hours, the options chain will most likely change come market open, but keep in mind, they will still be cheap. Looking at January 20c and March 22.5c, they are .18 with a .05-.3 bid/spread and .2-.25. Yeah yeah yeah, I know what you’re thinking “oH tHE BiD aSK SpREad is TOO wIdE”. But if you guys seriously think the bid/ask spread is what has limited your autistic trades up to this point, then you’re just lying to yourself. Get your order filled, because were making fucking tendies. THE MEME POTENTIAL OF THIS STOCK IS PERFECT FOR US RETARDS Is there anything that is more ironic than a bunch of degenerate gamblers gambling on a gambling company that is so revered in the gambling industry that it’s not even a gamble? FUCK NO THERE’S NOT. WE ARE MADE FOR THIS TICKER, AND AS AUTISTS AND GAMBLERS WE NEED THIS PLAY. As many of you know, once a ticker catches fire in this sub it gets HUGE coverage. Look for yourselves at the countless memes and videos of WSB getting coverage on Cramers shows and news outlets. MEMES MEAN MORE ADVERTISING, MEANS MORE PUMPS, MEANS MORE TENDIES, WHICH MEANS MORE MONEY FOR DICK PUMPS. I rest my case. TLDR; EVRi is a fucking powerhouse in the online/in-person gambling/casino world. They have lots of news going for them along with having cheap calls, a well run business with great price targets, good price action movement, and most importantly infinite meme potential POSITIONS: 20 Contracts of Jan/15/2021 20c 15 Contracts of Ma19/2021 22.5c
LCA running 7% because of NJ stats. But DMYT plays a huge part in it.
LCA is running 7%+ today because New Jersey overcame $1 Billion." "..The strong results from Golden Nugget Online, merging with SPAC Lancadia Holdings II (NASDAQ:LCA), show the strength in online casinos said Dorta,..." Remember DMYT is doing business in NJ with LCA license. And online gaming #1 in the USA is DMYT, believe it or not. When the numbers from DMYT comes out soon, they will again break the record from last Q. Now thinly traded DMYT could go over $30 easily once merger.
Not Financial Advice (NFA) Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold. A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels. Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed: First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror. Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend. A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants. On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count. On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash. Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds. The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey. All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section. Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts. Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting. These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:
Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]
REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC. The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards. Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3xcompared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports. This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it. Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S. I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling. The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.
MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books
So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding. Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.
The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.
This is an example of fundamental DD that takes place at ‘smart’ money institutions based on my professional experience in IBD, Private Equity & most recently at a HF (mods can message me for proof). Not thoroughly fleshed out b/c you autists have limited attention spans, but a summary. Figured I’d take the time to give back to this community that has provided many lolz, & should be a good measuring stick when evaluating other forms of fundamental DD posted here. NFA. DKNG - DraftKings, Inc.: vertically integrated US mobile betting operator that also provides retail sports betting & back-end betting solutions through SBTech. Think of SBTech as the tech ‘market-maker’ for traditional sports betting, they do all the funny math to set the betting odds & seem to be working on back-end solutions for DKNG Casino The Big Picture
Total annual US Gambling Revenue: ~$90Bn [1]
Casinos: ~$75Bn
Illegal Sports Betting: ~$13Bn
Horse Racing: ~$0.8Bn
Daily Fantasy Sports: ~$0.4Bn
Only ~2% of the ~$90Bn gambling revenues were placed online which is the lowest in the world where betting online is legal. For example, in other countries online gaming activity represents ~6% - ~52% of total gambling revenues, with ~12% being the average. Wall Street expects online gaming revenue to be $20Bn-$40Bn within the next 10 years. For this to be achieved, the online gambling market will have to achieve a ~30% penetration rate on total country gaming revenues. There is an expectation that this is could be easily achievable given penetration trends overseas - see page 11 of this: https://s1.rationalcdn.com/vendors/stars-group/documents/presentations/TSG-Investor-Day_March-27-2019.pdf Other catalysts include increasing adaptation of sports betting in more states. States that have both legal sports betting + online sports betting permitted: NV, NJ, WV, PA, IA. Sports betting permitted but no online: DE, MS, RI, MO, AR. Prior to COVID there was ongoing discussions across many States, especially ones with growing deficits to explore how permitting sports betting could create a fresh avenue of tax dollars. Post COVID there is an expectation that these discussions will be given extra focus as many States will be hungry for incremental tax dollars. Important to note that currently 43/50 States allow DFS, but given the small share DFS has on total Gaming Revenues, it increasingly looks like DKNG is banking on traditional sports betting for a variety of reasons, more later. There are entire articles on Google arguing this catalyst so I’ll end this here. Digging Deeper DKNG’s main offerings are Daily Fantasy Sports (“DFS”) products & traditional sports book products to its clients. Long story short, a metric to look for in my opinion (that is curiously not reported by management or remarked on) is the hold % in traditional gaming sector parlance or the ‘rake’ & compare it to the ‘traditional’ gaming products like sports betting & Blackjack. For DFS: DKNG takes ~15% of the prize pool (note: used to be ~6-11% [2]). Curiously, their main competitor FanDuel also has moved up to a ~15% rake recently. Google searches show the smaller competitors have a rake in the ~13% range. This ‘rake’ has grown ~2x in 6 years, but it has been a delicate move on behalf of management. Why? B/c the more ‘sophisticated’ DFS players (equal to autistic day traders on Robinhood) have noted this increase & based on some Googling, some have moved down market to the smaller players. As a side note, many live casino games have their rules altered to grow the Hold %. For example, Blackjack games with 6:5 payouts on 21 have materially higher Hold % than the traditional BJ rules that pay out 3:2. Given the findings so far, DKNG may not have much room to materially increase its hold % in DFS games in the near-term from current of 15%. More on this later. Now why the fuck is this important? This is important b/c the typical sports book (ex-Parlays) have a ~5% hold %/rake. Parlays have up to a ~30% hold (which is why it’s commonly known as the sucker’s bet), & just for reference, the average Blackjack table clocks in 14.5%. What this means: Every dollar put into these games, the “House” or DKNG, will take 15% of your money for DFS games, for sports bets they will be pocketing ~5%, up to ~30% if you’re into parlays, & we’ll just use the standard 14.5% BJ hold for the DraftKings Casino platform. So why the acquisition of SBTech & a foray into the traditional sports gambling market? As you can see previously, the illegal sports betting market is >30x the size of the current daily fantasy sports market. So it’s clear that the DFS providers including DKNG are foraying into the space to capture this user base & hopefully convert them into games that have a higher hold %, such as DFS/DKNG Casino. As of May 2020, DKNG has achieved a 30% penetration rate on its ~4mm ‘monetized’ DFS clientele to its Online Sports Book (OSB), from the OSB+DFS clientele, DKNG has converted 50% into its DraftKings Casino platform. Including non-monetized users, user base totals at 12mm. Based on these unit economics: every 1mm of additional users -> 333k monetized users for DFS -> 100k users for OSB -> 50k users for DraftKings Casino. Some Numbers – Italicized/Bolded the important
In total, DKNG has DFS paying clientele of ~4mm, the metric management focuses on is “Monthly Unique Payers (MUP)” which spans across DFS & online sports betting***. As of Q1’20 they reported 720,000*** MUPs, representing +16% YoY growth [3]
Average revenue per monthly user (ARPU) of ~$41, +11% YoY
Based on previous observation of Hold %, looks like ARPU growth will be limited
Since ’17, MUP has grown at a ~11% CAGR & ARPU has grown at a ~19% CAGR
As a side note: the ~4mm monetized user base was acquired at ~$122/user over 3 years. Total users cost them $41/user over the last 3 years [3].
They are currently EBITDA negative & Wall St expects them to be positive by 2023
I took a dive into the math driving this, here is a summary:
Based on their current cost structure they will need to have ~1.7mm MUPs at an ARPU of ~$46 to break-even. This implies total monetized users of ~10mm from ~4mm currently
Numbers that represent Risks to Long Thesis
DKNG’s user base of ~12mm is on the low end of the sector vs. its ‘brick & mortar’ competitor's user bases (online betting platforms with physical casino presence)
CZR with 55mm, MGM with 33mm, ERI with 10mm (in pending merger with CZR, could have a lot of overlap), FanDuel with 8.5mm
Is there a concern for increased marketing costs to increase user base? Let’s look at a case study of NJ, the first state to open both mobile & retail sports betting:
FanDuel + DraftKings have held 80%+ of the OSB market share since 12/2018 which is estimated to be driven by the conversion opportunity from DFS that is unique to both companies [4]
On the flipside, a case study to examine going forward is how DKNG can get OSB customers in a State that does not allow DFS. Nevada. Home to Las fucking Vegas. Prior to NV pushing FanDuel/DKNG out (highly likely due to casino lobbying), NV was a top-15 State in terms of revenue for them. NV is home to the fattest sports book in the US, & recently the gaming commission started to parse the data on sportsbook wagers done online vs. in-person, & it came out to roughly 50/50. It will be interesting to see how they try to capture market share in a state with no DFS
Long-term EBITDA margin target of 35% requires huge growth in MUPs
Based on their estimated '22 cost structure: Holding ARPU of ~$46, MUPs will have to be ~5.2mm, a 7x increase from current to achieve a EBITDA margin of 35%
A focus on future earnings will be management's ability to shift to a more fixed-cost structure which would effectively lower the MUP requirement for profitability
Things to look for when going Long - Progress of additional States legalizing sports betting – specifically, States with DFS already legalized - Cost structure evolving to a more fixed mix vs. the mostly variable mix currently as this will be the forward figure that determines profitability - Increasing User Base (Curr.: 12mm) -> Monetized Base (Curr.: 4mm) -> MUP (1Q’20: 0.7mm)
Management seems to be focused more on the first step, but one thing to note is that the 33% monetization rate is very high when compared to something like League of Legends which isn’t entirely comparable but in 2013 had a ~4% monetization rate [5]. This, combined with the below implies that this conversion rate may be the ceiling for now
As a side note, ~6 years ago FanDuel had ~300k monetized on an ~800k user base for a monetization rate of ~37% [6]
Share Price Target Given the cost structure of the company, I’m going to base the price targets around Enterprise Value / Revenues (driven by MUPs & ARPUs).
MUP sensitivity of 5mm - 6mm
ARPU sensitivity from $41 - $47 for an average of $44, just a $3 increase from current of $41.
Share Price targets based on 2.0x - 4.5x EV / Sales.
Note: Flutter Entertainment (FanDuel ParentCo) trades at ~3.6x EV/Sales
Bear Case MUP: 5mm -> $20.32 - $45.73 Base Case MUP: 5.5mm -> $22.27 - $50.10 Bull Case MUP: 6mm -> $24.21 - $54.47 These MUPs imply a monetized customer base of 28mm – 33mm. At the high-end, this implies that DKNG monetized customer base will equal MGM’s current total user base. At yesterday’s close of $43.70, DKNG is trading at 3.5x – 4.5x forward Revenues on an expected >5,000 MUPs. Share Price drivers / considerations: - Continued multiple expansion
Consideration: A 1x premium to FanDuel's 3.6x, implies a ~15% upside to current. They're bigger than FanDuel, do they deserve the premium?
- MUP Growth exceeding beyond targets
Consideration: Stock currently implies that they should on average be growing at 40% QoQ – during 2018 they had on average +30% growth QoQ in MUPs, marking their best year
Management Team Jason Robins, 39 – Co-Founder & CEO. Duke BA, started DraftKings from day 1 in 2011. The 2 other buddies he started the Company with are still at DKNG. Dude navigated the Company through the scandal that rocked them in ’15 & ’16, and was the trailblazer in getting DFS labeled as a non-gambling product that enabled it to open in States without a gaming designation. This shit is the stuff that gets people in history books. His accomplishments make him seem like a very competent guy. Has 3 kids now, and only ~3% economic ownership in DKNG but has 90% of the voting power through his Class B share ownership. Also he actively participates in venture investments, sitting on 10 boards. His comp plan performance bonus target is pretty murky, but main drivers are EPS growth, revenue growth, then a bunch of margin & return metrics, along with share price returns. Overall, very open-ended & it’s safe to say as long as shit doesn’t hit the fan, he will be eligible for his max payouts year over year. I’m assuming the lawyers tried to encompass everything possible for maximum flexibility to justify him earning his max comp as long as DKNG is still around. Since he’s got voting control of 90%, I’ll end the specific-person overview here, but want to note that they have a very bloated C-suite. 12 folks at DKNG, 8 folks at SBTech, all with C-suite designations. Whereas their main competitor FanDuel, has 3 guys with a C-suite designations & 1 EVP, but is a sub under a larger ParentCo that has its own management team of ~5 guys. Looking through glassdoor you can see the biggest complaint among employees giving bad reviews is based on management, all of the specific issues they point out IMO are a result of a top-heavy company. Seems like a good starting point to optimize their cost structure, but given Robins' history of sticking this entire thing through with his co-founders since '11 stuff like this doesn't seem to be a part of his playbook. They’re a public company now though, so it’s going to be interesting to see going forward. TL;DR: If I were to initiate a position in DKNG, the stock would have to fall to the $35-$37 range for me to be a buyer of the stock, and based on this rough intro analysis I'll be considering Put options if it breaches $50. I would not touch Calls at this level. [1] Wall Street Research - 6/27/19 [2] https://rotogrinders.com/articles/bang-for-your-buck-a-look-at-dfs-industry-rake-153302 [3] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/static-files/8f3a5c5a-7228-45bf-aab2-63604111c48d [4] Wall Street Research - 5/19/20 [5]https://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/223071/Dont_monetize_like_League_of_Legends_consultant_says.php [6] https://rotogrinders.com/threads/how-many-people-actually-play-dfs-regularly-252044
Players often track the results of a roulette wheel in a brick and mortar casinos with great success. Every roulette wheel is different and tendencies may present themselves. Online roulette games use random number generators that cannot be tracked. However, online live dealer roulette games use a traditional wheel and bring wheel tracking back into play. In general, roulette players should always choose European Roulette over American Roulette. Unfortunately, 안전토토사이트 online live dealer roulette games in NJ use American Roulette wheels. The best strategy for online live dealer roulette games is to properly manage your bankroll. Always bet within your means and set a limit for wins and losses. You may not maximize your winnings when you get lucky, but you’ll limit your losses when you don’t. The Martingale progression betting strategy can also work in online live dealer roulette games. This involves doubling the amount you bet after every loss. Progression strategies such as the Paroli betting system that include increasing your bets after every win can also be effective.
LCA looking strong in New Jersey 👀 - July ‘20 vs. July ‘19
NJ July 2020 Gaming Revenue 3rd page shows Golden Nugget’s Internet Gaming up 111%. I would imagine $LCA stock would have reacted better to this release today. Only good news for more states to open up online casino gaming!
Players often track the results of a roulette wheel in a brick and mortar casinos with great success. Every roulette wheel is different and tendencies may present themselves. Online roulette games use random number generators that cannot be tracked. However, online live dealer roulette games use a traditional wheel and bring wheel tracking back into play. In general, roulette players should always choose European Roulette over American Roulette. Unfortunately, 스포츠토토 online live dealer roulette games in NJ use American Roulette wheels. The best strategy for online live dealer roulette games is to properly manage your bankroll. Always bet within your means and set a limit for wins and losses. You may not maximize your winnings when you get lucky, but you’ll limit your losses when you don’t. The Martingale progression betting strategy can also work in online live dealer roulette games. This involves doubling the amount you bet after every loss. Progression strategies such as the Paroli betting system that include increasing your bets after every win can also be effective.
Disclosure: This is not a comprehensive breakdown, and it's not meant to be. Just some key points and context that I thought you'd find interesting. DraftKings is technology stock meets gambling Three main products: Daily fantasy sports or DFS, Sportsbook, iGaming DFS is OG DraftKings. Fantasy sports are where players make fantasy teams and battle each other to win money. However, sportsbook is where the money is: betting actual money on actual sports against the house. iGaming is basically an online casino with some online games you can gamble on, in addition to the classics like blackjack and Russian roulette. In addition to DraftKings, there’s also SBTech, the online gambling technology company that had an arranged marriage as part of the DKNG merger. Landmark Case In 2018, the Supreme Court knocks down the federal law prohibiting sports gambling throughout the United States. Pandora’s box is open. Each state has to decide what it wants to do with gambling on its own. The Path to Legalization Map of Sportsbook legality DFS legality is more widespread Currently, 36% of the USA population lives in a state with some form of legal gambling and 24% in a state with legal online gambling. The population living where DraftKings is live or going live is only 13% of the country. There’s a lot of ground to cover. NJ is the posterchild for sports betting legalization at the moment, and it’s DraftKings promised land. Generating 30% of DraftKings total revenue, it is a testament to the money waiting to be made if sports betting is made fully legal. The Risks for DraftKings Regulation: Gambling is a money-maker, but it’s also a social disease. States will want to cash in with taxes of 6.8 to 36% but it will be a tough battle to make it happen. And that battle will unfold state by state. Just like with the marijuana industry, the fate of the market is undeniably shaped by how legalization unfolds. It could end up being a niche hobby in select states, or it could end up like gambling in the United Kingdom, where there’s a gambling shop on every corner. Or there could be a huge gambling market, but one that is monopolized by the States exclusively. If they’re going to allow gambling, why not take all the profits, right? Competition: FanDuel and DraftKings once considered a merger before the FTC played tough. Now, together they own 95% of the DFS market in the USA with a slight majority going to DraftKings. However, there will be fierce competition as new states open up, and missteps could be stifling for either company in the early stages. The lifeblood fueling this battle? Cold hard cash burned up in advertising and incentivizing dollars. Maybe it’s not as bad as Uber since gambling has a chance at being profitable, but if you don’t like to see money burning, think twice about entering the online sports betting market over this coming decade. Technology: The hardware of gambling is a liability. Paying for the bandwidth needed at the exact moment of a match when everybody checks their bet is expensive. Payment processing, user validation, server hosting, sports data, app store placement: these are all areas of vulnerability and cost that you can minimize but can’t eliminate. With SBTech in the fold, having complete vertical integration is the aim and strength of DraftKings. The House Always Wins…Usually: Writing bets means risk. Thankfully, the DFS is player versus player, so DraftKings always wins, taking something like EDIT: up to 15% of what players put in. It's a bookkeeper's wet dream. But Sportsbook and iGaming have classic gambling risks which should be fine over the long-term. The Good Side (and Oh God They’re Beautiful) Growth Potential: It’s a technology stock. The PE Ratio is over 600. When you buy DraftKings, you’re buying the dream of an America where gambling is as American as the Ford F150. A matured Sportsbook market in the USA would be around $20 billion, about $85 per adult. It’s a beautiful untapped (and non-existent) market with lots of money waiting to be taken. With Coronavirus, the slice of the sports betting pie that goes digital is bound to be more than ever before, if the sports happen COVID19: The only thing that can stop a sports betting company from making money is getting rid of sports. Thankfully, new sports like Table Tennis, eSports, and a host of other betting topics have allowed DraftKings to get by. With lots of cash on hand ($450 million plus) and a monthly burn of $15 million, there’s enough to weather the storm. And if sports reopen with empty stadiums, fans may turn to online gambling to get their authentic sport experience. Turnaround Time: The largest expense that DraftKings has is conquering new markets. Every time a state opens up, it’s a massive investment. That’s why analysts and executives don’t think DraftKings will run net positive for years to come. However, DraftKings experience in New Jersey has shown an average turnaround time of about two years is all it takes to recoup their initial investment when entering a new market. Some pretty tasty data to have coming in. The Numbers Revenue was up to $323 million in 2019 from $226 million and $191 million the years prior. NJ made up $86 million of that, growing by 8.5x after sports betting legalization in late 2018 to make up over a quarter of revenue in 2019. Net loss however was $146 million in 2019 from $76 million and $73 million the years prior. Cost of Revenue was $103 million, Sales and Marketing was $185 million, Product and Tech was $55 million, and General and Administrative was $124 million of that. DraftKings has never been in the green. They attribute the accelerated burn in 2019 to growth in new markets so whether its aggressive or reckless is up to you. To be fair, if you’re investing in this stock, you should be expecting them to burn every single dollar they get at this point. Average monthly unique players was up to 684k in 2019 from 601k and 574k with the average revenue per monthly unique player up to $39 from $31 and $28. As of March 31st 2020, there were 720k monthly unique players with average revenue of $41 per. So continued growths in the midst of the early Coronavirus pandemic. Q2 will be revealing for certain. The stock just skyrocketed to $34+ yesterday meaning a market cap of over $10 billion and a PE ratio of over 600. Take it for what it’s worth to you. Some Quirks DraftKings revenue is seasonal. Q4 is the best when the NFL and NBA coincide, with Q3 and Q1 being roughly equivalent, and Q2 basically being garbage. With COVID mainly taking out Q2, perhaps there’s hope for sports by Q3 and Q4 to hit those high-earning months? Controlled Structure: You get 1 vote for 1 stock, but CEO and Founder Jason Robins gets 10 votes for each stock. So whatever you do, he has 90% of the voting power. Good for long-term growth in a highly reactive landscape, but being powerless is never a fun feeling. SBTech offers B2B solutions for other gambling companies looking to offer online sports betting and iGaming, so there’s that added benefit. In fact, the share of B2B has been growing from 1% in 2018 to 5% in 2019, so some diversification is happening. DraftKings’s ticker symbol DKNG reminds me of Donkey Kong
Everyone talks about DKNG, PENN, MGM and in some cases RRBYD but the real gem is GAN. I have worked and know people who work with them so this is coming from personal experience seeing their product. You have one of if not the best online gaming platform. Their offering is top notch and will only grow. Their partners in the USA will only grow. Especially Fanduel and newly acquired Churchill Downs. Look at the market share Fanduel has in the states they are in. It's basically DK vs FD as states legalize. Speaking of states legalizing. It's projected 45 states will have online gambling by 2024. Think of the revenue GAN will be raking in being in 45 states. Draftkings has SBTech running their casino/sports now which is a subpar cheap product and you bet other books will take notice of GAN when they look to enter new states. Don't be surprised to see Draftkings, Pointsbet, etc look at GAN down the road. Brick & Mortar is another revenue source they have which will only expand as states legalize. They won't only be dominating the online world. They aren't just in the USA. Their global presence is expanding as well and will only get bigger. This isn't a pump a dump. There is a real demand for this and nobody is better equipped than GAN. They are severely under valued and their revenue numbers are only going to grow. They went up $1.50 AH today off NJ numbers. Just wait until you see them in 8 states with online casinos by the end of the year and the numbers rolling in are all green and exceeding expectations. Remember states are looking for revenue sources and when legislators are back in session sports gambling bills will be at the top of the list as they know if they tax it at the right rate it can be a profitable venture for the state. https://gan.com/about-us/customers-and-partners If you have any knowledge about gambling you will know by going through their portfolio that the sky is the limit for them. Sportsbooks are partnering with arenas, hooters servers are taking your bets, cable companies are building interactive tv's focusing on gambling....online gambling is going nowhere.
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BetRivers $ SugarHouse Casino.
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Pennsylvania Casino friend referrals wanted. still have openings and my friends are losers
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Draftkings Sportsbook & Casino.
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