Warning: This post is kind of long. There's a TL;DR at the bottom if you must, but if you disagree with it then read the post. I haven't written this out with the intention of "telling it how it is;" I'd much rather the people playing this game be educated about, or at worst be convinced of what I've got to say. A lot of it is math, some of it is definitions, and the rest is logic that I haven't seen fully explained elsewhere in this subreddit.
Hi.
In this post, I'm going to explain the concept of expected value, and talk about what it means in relation to Artifact's gauntlet modes' use of MMR. Note: if you've spent a lot of time playing card games for money, this is likely going to be far too verbose (and really just a retread) for your liking. I've separated the important sections (numbers, plea) with line breaks, so they should be easy to find. Also, this is mostly new ground for this sub. Someone else wrote a script for the numbers yesterday (instead of just doing the math, don't ask me why), but posted without any meaningful commentary in a community that is sorely in need of some.
Initialisms I'm going to use:

• EV = Expected Value (keep reading)
• MMR = MatchMaking Rating (Elo or any similar system, just like in Dota/League/etc)

So, for those of you not aware, the idea of expected value is pretty self-describing. What we're interested in is, if I compete in an event type an infinite number of times, what sort of prizes do I get out of it? Usually we talk about this in relation to its entry fee- if I can enter an event an infinite amount of times, and I come out ahead, we say it's +EV. This is extremely rare. In fact, if the person running the event is giving prizes worth some dollar amount, and they'd like to make money, it never happens. In real life, or in any event dealing with dollars/dollar representations (tickets), every event is going to be -EV. This is why casinos work; even the best events are -EV for the average player. In a game of chance (slots), this average player is everyone. In a game of skill (poker), the average player is literally that- a player with average skill.
This all probably sounds super basic, but I've spent enough time reading through /new to know that there's a huge population here that haven't played card games (or any skill games, really) for money before this one.
Currently, this is what happens when you/I enter a (paid, constructed or phantom limited) gauntlet:
1. I pay money to enter a tournament.
2. I play a round, matched against someone else in the tournament with my same number of wins that is within my MMR 'bucket.' Since I'm being matched within this bucket, my average win-rate this match, assuming my MMR is a correct approximation of my skill, will be 50%. See the footnote on why this is true, if for some reason you're having trouble with it.
Step 2 repeats until I've lost twice or reached 5 wins.
3. If I've won 3 times before I've lost twice, I get my entry fee back. 4 times, between 2.7x and 3x my entry. 5 times, between 4.4x and 5x my entry. In real terms: for 4 or 5 win runs, I receive 1 or 2 packs in addition to a single entry ticket. For 3 wins, it's just 1 ticket.
Now that we're on the same page, it's time for some math. This is valid for constructed and phantom draft queues. For keeper drafts, the numbers are kinder to players that go 3-2 and worse to those who go 5-x, but overall not too different (like 1% off).
Here's the possible outcomes of a gauntlet. Following is the % of the time a 50% win-rate leads you there. Following that are numbers in (parentheses)- the number of tickets you get as prizes. First number assumes 1 pack is worth 0.85 * $2 = 1.7 tickets (1 ticket is $1). The next number assumes 1 pack is worth $2 = 2 tickets. Following the colon is those numbers * the probability of the outcome, separated by a comma.
0 wins, 2 losses: 25% (0)
1 win, 2 losses: 25% (0)
2 wins, 2 losses: 18.75% (0)
3 wins, 2 losses: 12.5%: (1) (1): 0.125, 0.125
4 wins, 2 losses: 7.8125%: (2.7) (3) 0.2109375, 0.234375
5 wins, 0/1 loss: 10.9375%: (4.4) (5) 0.48125, 0.546875
If 1 pack's expected value is $2: Each gauntlet has an EV of 0.90625 tickets. If 1 pack's expected value is $1.7: Each gauntlet has an EV of 0.8171875 tickets.
Aside, in case you don't trust me to do the math: tt's actually pretty simple. Whatever your record, you have a 50% likelihood of winning the next match. So, to start, we've got a 50% likelihood of leaving our first match at 0-1, and a 50% likelihood of going 1-0. You could build a tree or just do the math (it's pretty simple) for each match after that, essentially each outcome is worth 1/2 of its parent. Add the same records together and you'll come up with the above list of probabilities.
So, in case I wasn't descriptive enough earlier, here is what this means to every single player (not the average skilled player, more on this in a bit). A player that has reached their true MMR that enters a gauntlet (cost, 1 ticket = $1) can expect to receive between 0.82 and 0.91 tickets as a return on their investment. The reason there's a range here is that I'm not exactly sure as to how much a pack is worth (no one is). In a game where you can sell cards without a, for lack of a better word, rake (the rake in Artifact Valve's likely 15% seller's fee), the average price you can sell the contents of a pack for is going to be the price of a pack at (or just above) distributor level. Since in artifact, this is $2, we would expect the average price of a card of value to be $2 divided by the rate of appearance of cards of value (per pack). However, since we're selling the contents of our packs to get our entry fees back, it's likely closer to the lower number ($1.70) if Valve is taking 15% as expected.
I mentioned above that this return is valid for every single player. Since we're matched via our MMR, our win rate - regardless of skill - will always be 50%. The only way that your win rate is going to be different is if your MMR isn't accurate to your skill- if you're new, improving, or getting worse. In those cases, you're always going to be approaching 50%, and so if you're worse than your current MMR you'll see higher returns as you continue to play, and if you're better than your current MMR you'll see worse returns as you continue to play.
If you care about the health of this game, that above paragraph should scare the shit out of you. This isn't hyperbole: if pay-to-enter events (gauntlets) continue to use MMR to decide pairings, high level play will not exist in those gauntlets. Really, no play should exist, but the reality is that as you play the game more and more, gauntlets approach being entirely casino-esque games of chance, rather than skill. And since people still gamble at slot machines, people will still enter gauntlets. If you skipped over my explanation of EV and are confused here, go back and read it over. If you're very crafty, here's where you realize that any good player looking to make money off this game will end up smurfing in gauntlets, and that's probably an even worse outcome for the health of the game than the gambling issue.
If Valve wants pay-to-enter events to be games of skill, rather than chance, there's a simple fix. Drop the MMR matchmaking system, and just pair people against those with the same number of wins (or same record, ideally). This changes nothing about our math, but there exists a key difference in the way events pay out. In the current system, every single player (with correct MMR) has the same EV (1 - 0.82 = -0.18). In the proposed system, the average player has that EV. If a player is of higher skill, they will have a higher EV. So, at that point, you can calculate a necessary win rate to be above par and make money (this is sometimes referred to as going infinite). Perhaps notably, this system does work better (as in, players feel like they get their money's worth) in a swiss system, so all players play all 5 rounds if they'd like. This is how Magic Online's leagues work, but the play-until-you-lose-2 system is still compatible... it's just always going to be less friendly than swiss.
The question on everyone's tongue (well, not everyone...) should be: why would below par players play in pay-to-enter events? That one's pretty easy (or at least is less math-y than the above) to answer. So easy, in fact, that there are three great reasons the model works. First, the population that thinks they are a below par player is smaller than the population of below par players. People tend to think they're better than they actually are, at least until you hit the highest levels. So, the group that believes they are above par (and yet isn't) will still enter. Second, players want to get better. I hope that everyone here understands that the best way to get better is to watch players that are better than you. In card games, where variance is a factor, it's difficult to implement things that you've seen happen to someone else. Not every situation is the same, so decisions aren't even close to black and white (on the surface). The best way to ingraine these lessons in your head is to play against people that are better than you. So, a player that believes they will not make money, but wants to get better, will spend their time doing it. There's another (possibly) less obvious reason here, too. If the player believes they'll get better (usually, if they're in this camp, they will) then eventually they could/will be above par and thus make money. Third, for the population that doesn't want to get better and thinks they're garbage- free events exist in this game. Global matchmaking is one. Drafting with friends is another. Eventually these modes might get boring, though, so bad players will eventually either quit the game or move into one of the first two groups of below par players.
So, if this post somehow gets in front of anyone making decisions at Valve: please fix this. The game almost certainly deserves better.
I hope that this has been at least a little bit helpful to at least a few people. If you're not convinced of the problems with pay-to-enter events matchmaking via MMR, I'm sorry. I hope you at least picked something up about EV, or how to talk about trading card games.
If you've made it this far, thanks for reading. I hope that there's some quality discussion in the comments. If there isn't, I'll drop some hot takes about what I've seen of the game, and at least you can all get mad at me for that.
Good luck in the queues next week/month.
Footnote: MMR Buckets push players towards a 50% winrate. This is because, over time, the average opponent that you face within your bucket (assuming the center of your bucket is your MMR- if this isn't true, we have bigger issues...) will be, you guessed it, of the same MMR. Any MMR system's goal is to find an accurate digital representation of a player's skill- whether this is Elo or something more complicated, it doesn't matter. If the system has done its job, if player A and player B have the same MMR value then player A and player B should be an even match- that is, player A should win 50% of the time. So, as your in-game MMR approaches your "true" MMR, your win-rate will approach 50%. If you're worse than the average new player, this means that as you play, you will win more and more until you hit 50%. If you're better than the average new player, as you play you will win less and less until you hit 50%. Because this is a card game with variance, in the short term view of things this is hard to see. But, precisely because of variance, this is all very clear if you look at the long term, especially after you've roughly plateaued. However! Sharp readers will note that Valve first sorts by number of wins in gauntlets... but this doesn't matter. In a sufficiently large population, there will be members close to your MMR at all numbers of wins. In fact, the percentage of players with an MMR equivalent to their skill at each number of wins will line up with the tree you might have built while calculating EV, except you've got to trim every leaf- no one currently in the system has 2 losses or 5 wins, after all. More astute readers will note that while Valve supplies an ordering (first wins, then MMR), in a large population this doesn't matter. If you're under the impression that the population playing this game will be so miniscule as to make this problematic, I'm fairly certain you'll be wrong. If you're right, though, then doing math about anything here is worthless, and any discussion of probabilistic win-rates is going to be immediately invalidated since the population is, as you've decided, so small.
TL;DR: If pay-to-enter gauntlets do matchmaking by rating/MMR (in addition to, or rather than record), no one will ever enter besides gamblers and smurfs. Volvo pls fix.

So I took a liking to the casino, ever since realising its highly +EV.
Seemed like a nice way to build up a starting bankroll by spinning the slot while taking a poop or watching a movie.
It was the first building I built, and upgraded it to lvl 5 almost the same day.
Things were going well, I did around 7000 spins in 3 days. I was up, making 100%+ ROI. Probably running above EV.
I guesstimated Kelly for the variance and never really hit anything very bad - my biggest downswing was less then 200 bets in the 7000-7100 spins I did in the first 3 days.
I hit 5 of a kind 2 times (running above EV I assume) and a bunch of quads.
That is until today. Today I spinned around 2150 times, and so far I am down 1500 bets. 1500!!!
I'm only at day 5 of playing the game, so needless to say it was a decent hit. had to sell a lot of stuff that I could use for factories, but my curiosity took the better of me.
Whats actually freaky is that I didn't hit anything over a 2x "Three of the same" multiplier today. Not even once. Zero times. In 2150 spins.
And that's SO FAR. I stopped for now to make this post and do some proper odds calculations, then I will continue.
As frustrating as it may be, I am curious now. I'm curious if the odds of this bad run are smaller then hitting the jackpot. By purely guessing, it feels like they are. In fact, it feels like this run is so unlikely that I am probably the only player to hit it ever in this game - since it existed. It almost feels like this is SO UNLIKELY that the probability of there being something in the game code that prevents me to hit a multiplier is actually higher, then the probability of actually hitting this runout due to random variance.
Also, from your perspective, the odds of me lying are higher then the odds of this run happening. But I assure you, I am not lying.
Anyway, after this long prelude - I will attempt to calculate the actual odds of the casino spins and of this occurrence (I will post my results). Then I'll go do more spins. Keep in mind that I am not very knowledgeable at calculating complex probabilities, so if somebody who is, would double check my work - I'd appreciate it.
To be continued...
Edit 1:
Calculated outcome of each independent outcome (assuming fair random odds):
Total reel combos: (11⁵⁾ = 161,051
5 Jackpot (x....) = (1 combo) = 1 in (161,051 / 1) = 1 in 161,051 = 0.000620921%
5 Diaminds (x3000) = (1 combo) = 1 in (161,051 / 1) = 1 in 161,051 = 0.000620921%
5 Justice (x1500) = (1 combo) = 1 in (161,051 / 1) = 1 in 161,051 = 0.000620921%
5 Oil Barrels (x1000) = (1 combo) = 1 in (161,051 / 1) = 1 in 161,051 = 0.000620921%
5 Coins (x750) = (1 combo) = 1 in (161,051 / 1) = 1 in 161,051 = 0.000620921%
5 Matching (x500) = (6 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 6) = 1 in 26,841.83 = 0.003725527%
4 Matching in a row: (X250) = (220 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 22) = 1 in 732.05 = 0.136602691%
4 Matching anywhere: (x100) = (220 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 22) = 1 in 732.05 = 0.136602691%
Full House: (x50) = (220 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 22) = 1 in 732.05 = 0.136602691%
2 Pairs (x30) = (3190 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 3190) = 1 in 50.49 = 1.980590216%
3 Matching in a row: (x25) = (3080 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 3080) = 1 in 52.29 = 1.912411551%
3 Matching anywhere: (x2) = (6380 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 6380) = 1 in 25.24 = 3.961965135%
1 Pair (x1) = (37620 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 37620) = 1 in 4.28 = 23.36448598%
Nothing (x0) = (110110 combos) = 1 in (161,051 / 110110) = 1 in 1.46 = 68.37139341%
Spin EV (Jackpot = 0 Bets): +0.99 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Jackpot = 1,000 Bets): +1.00 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Jackpot = 10,000 Bets): +1.05 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Jackpot = 100,000 Bets): +1.61 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Jackpot = 1,000,000 Bets): +7.20 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Jackpot = 10,000,000 Bets): +63.08 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Jackpot = 100,000,000 Bets): +621.91 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Jackpot = 1,000,000,000 Bets): +6210.20 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Never hitting above "4 Matching in a row"): +0.93 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Never hitting above "2 Pair"): +0.39 Bets per spin
Spin EV (Never hitting above "3 Matching anywhere"): -0.69 Bets per spin
To be continued...
Edit 2:
What happened to me so far (probability of not hitting anything above "3 Matching anywhere" over 2150 consecutive spins):
Independent probability of not hitting (x25): (98.0876% per spin over 2150 spins) = 0.00000000000000009340% = 1 in 1,070,663,811,563,169,166 (That's 1 in 1 quintillion)
Independent probability of not hitting (x30): (98.0194% per spin over 2150 spins) = 0.00000000000000002094% = 1 in 4,775,549,188,156,638,013 (That's 1 in 5 quintillion)
Independent probability of not hitting (x50): (99.8634% per spin over 2150 spins) = 5.29235038673346000000% = 1 in 18
Independent probability of not hitting (x100): (99.8634% per spin over 2150 spins) = 5.29235038673346000000% = 1 in 18
Independent probability of not hitting (x250): (99.8634% per spin over 2150 spins) = 5.29235038673346000000% = 1 in 18
Independent probability of not hitting (x500): (99.9963% per spin over 2150 spins) = 92.35304830509050000000% = 1 in 1.08
Independent probability of not hitting (x750): (99.9994% per spin over 2150 spins) = 98.71828101653520000000% = 1 in 1.01
Independent probability of not hitting (x1000): (99.9994% per spin over 2150 spins) = 98.71828101653520000000% = 1 in 1.01
Independent probability of not hitting (x1500): (99.9994% per spin over 2150 spins) = 98.71828101653520000000% = 1 in 1.01
Independent probability of not hitting (x3000): (99.9994% per spin over 2150 spins) = 98.71828101653520000000% = 1 in 1.01
Independent probability of not hitting (Jackpot): (99.9994% per spin over 2150 spins) = 98.71828101653520000000% = 1 in 1.01
Cumulative probability: 1 in 33,847,343,287,121,233,535,583,971,619,998,816,168,263 = 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000002954% = 1 in ~34 Duodecillion
Conclusion: The odds in the casino are not truly random. Pretty much any other explanation has a higher probability then this 2150 spin occurrence happening due to random chance, including there being purple aliens living in the apartment next to mine, who can control matter on a quantum level, rigging the odds in a random online game against me just because their striped pet dinosaur died today due to a lightning strike, while holding a winning lottery ticket for each lottery in the world, and they are sad and can only cheer themselves up by fucking with me specifically because I have a unique mutation in my DNA that makes me, and only me out of all humans, produce a specific pheromone when I am upset, that has the effect of equivalent of heroin on these specific two aliens, because their DNA is also uniquely mutated, also, every time these two aliens turn on the TV, its always a re-run of Friends running. And its the episode where Joey doesn't share food. And all this happening in a parallel universe where everything happened exactly like in this one, except I WON that coin flip in grade 5 and bought the LARGE juice. All this. By random chance. Is more likely. Then this sequence. Of 2150 spins...*
Honestly, I don't know how to feel about this...
And yes, I will do more spins... I'm no pussy, I can beat the odds.
*For the nits - the odds of my humorous example are actually lower the 1/34x10³⁹
tldr: casino is not truly random or I have purple aliens living next to me and am a mutant.

I'm working on a sort of "how-to" series where casino hustlers explain their craft and lifestyles. Most people seem to be extremely skeptic and spout off seemingly uninformed, nonsensical, gibberish when confronted with the idea of beating casinos. From the undercover footage I've gathered thus far, these casino hustlers are not individually making millions of dollars, (assumption) however some are making low six figures and are not having to pay taxes as far as I can tell.
To clear up any confusion, it's my understanding that the majority of slot machines are not profitable. I asked the hustler, "then why would anyone play those machines?" His response, "Because their after a big quick score. With their mindset, they come up here expecting to lose, or to have a good time. For me, hustling slots is a grind, like working for a wage, without a set schedule, sometimes you make a lot, but usually pick up 20-30$ an hour."
How-to-Video Example HERE
Before you ask how this is possible, or how this works on other machines, here's one explanation:
Target: Quick Strike Slot Machine manufactured by Konami
Game Structure: Game offers Major and Minor Jackpots that increase via Coin-in increments.
Target Leak: Susceptible to Advantage Slot Players via simple mathematical calculation.
How-to-Hustle: Since many of these machines are structured around a major and minor progressive, you can calculate a player advantage. A typical quick-strike's minor progressive jackpot will start at $25 and is structured around a must pay by $50. After calculating that the jackpot increases by $0.01 for every $1.00 of coin-in, we can deduce our risk.
If jackpot is at $48.00 the machine would require $200 of coin-in to reach the must hit by $50, thus
Current Risk= $200
Since casinos are required to pay back 'X' percentage, look up your state's law. My state requires 90% payback. Thus, 90% of $200= 180$, $200-$180= $20.
New Current Risk= $20.
Since Machine has a progressive Jackpot of $50 that we know must pay, we can deduce that $50-(current risk)$20= $30 profit.
We must understand that we have just calculated a statistical advantage to beat this particular machine. Please remember, we will not beat the machine every play, but over the long run we will gain a profit. Like in poker, and other various games of skill, a winning player calculates a +EV situation and plays regardless of the outcome. I will be releasing my next video explaining this particular machine "Quick Strike" by Konami.

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2012-08-28
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Link to my post

Questions	Answers
How do you find out about these games? (Friend of a friend of a friend?) Are they mostly hosted in Manhattan or within the other boroughs and NJ as well?	I've been around the games for awhile, and through the loop I've discovered more games. I started out when Manhattan would have places with 14 cash games pumping before the big shooting then they really cracked down on it.
Any casino tournament players in this?	Casino players love them because it's a lot more action and talent pool is very slim. Yes there are tournaments aswell, all sorts
What's your style? New age aggressive online type or old school mathematical? I work in Information Security and part of my work is social engineering gigs where I even worked with Law Enforcement to understand body language. Have you used something like that to your advantage? Most n00bs try to look for microexpressions when it's usually the feet and torso that are sure tells. So for huge winnings, how do you stash it away? Deposits of less than $10k in different accounts? What's your educational background and before you decided to make this your living, what was your work profile? Did you start of at casinos or was it always clubs?	My style is and has always been tight aggressive. I'm very selective with my hands, everything has to go into consideration. Micro expressions are good of you pick it up and you're right about the 'happy feet' and torso. There are many many tells to pick up on in addition to timing and betting patterns and tilt factor. All those things give away valuable information. Figuring out what to do with the money is always a good problem to have and im business/street savy so I find options. I went to Baruch University and ran my first game in the school lol. We actually made the papers. I dropped out to open a clothing boutique (investment came from poker) It was always clubs and casinos were secondary but still profitable.
I'm reading this while in class at Baruch, I remember people used to play in the 3rd floor game room, but they seemed too good so I never got involved.	Yep gameroom .. Where it all began. We had official tables there and everything!
What do you mean by happy feet/ torso? how can you see this at the table or casino?	You can't see happy feet in most cases. Torso movement you can pick up by the shirt moving, it also depends on how close you are to the villain.
Hey, thanks for the AMA, just a few questions. Do you still consider it gambling or has it become another form of employment? Also what's your average income? Does it frighten you that you may lose a lot of money due to pure chance? Biggest win/loss? What are your thoughts on online poker? If given the opportunity would you choose another job?	I havent considered it gambling since i got a real grasp of the game. I don't gamble. Never played a table game, scratch off. I won't even play lotto. All my friends are degenerates so I know the deal. My biggest win was 56k but I was being staked so gave away 60%. Biggest loss is 2k. Online poker is free money if you know what you're doing. A bunch of my close friends moved to Canada just to be able to play, 4 guys combined bankroll over 2 mill. I've gone too far in poker to walk away from it. It's like 2nd nature, most places would rather me not play because I'm a tightass or parasite in their eyes lol.
What was the buy-in on the stake game?	I usually play 2/5 or 5/5 and sit down with a nickel ($500) Sometimes there are really good 1/3 games and I sit with 300.
being staked. Sorry - what does that mean?	Yea it's when someone buys you into the game and get a % of the profits but covers the loss entirely in the event of a loss. I only let people stake me in bigger games I wouldn't normally play with my own money.
Knowing the games like you do, what is the lowest bankroll you'd consider having to sit at a $2/5 table?	I go with the 20/25 buy-ins rule because I've went on bad runs before and I would rather have the insurance. So you if buyin for 300 to sit comfortably I want to have at least 6k to work with. Most people dont follow any kind of bankroll management and go broke over and over again.
What happens if you lose all the money? I understand they get nothing back but is that really what happens or do you have to pay a little back to them as a show of goodwill? Or do they just bust you kneecaps and call it even?	Nope lol, stop watching Sopranos .. They take the hit as a bad investment. So far im up with all my backers
You have never had to pay makeup?	Nope.
How about ARod? I've heard he's been to these underground spots on occasion.	I was at the club when he was playing. You would be surprised how many celebrities I met at games. I have met more in clubs than in casinos.
What is the culture of these games like, or does it vary wildly? I saw some elderly Jews in your pictures - is that typical, or are there businessmen, or mostly gambling types? Do women play? Do you often play against the same people or does it cycle out fairly regularly? If I WERE to, ahem, get involved in these games, how what would I want to look for in a "good" room vs. a "bad" room, if there are such categories? I guess, what makes you prefer one place over another?	They vary very wildly. Most places are a mixed crowd especially since nyc is a big melting pot. There are also games that are all albanian or asian etc.. One of the biggest factors in game selection is the rake/chop. There are some games that flat out rake 10% with no cap.they do this because they give out credit and because they are greedy. A good realistic rake for a city 1/2 or 2/5 is 10% with a $15 cap. Also you want to play against action players not tight ass grinders.
How many games are typically going on (say, in Manhattan alone) a weeknight vs. a weekend? It sounds like you've been around a while - do you have any sense of roughly how many people in the NY area are doing what you do, i.e. making living off these games? Dozens? Hundreds? More?	At any given time from 8pm to 4am there are dozens of live cash games going on. Weekends most places open up earlier than weekdays because of the usual working clientele.
How would you compare the average skill level? For example, if you play online what stakes would you compare these games to?	The skill level now is tougher than it was 5 years ago. When ESPN had poker on all the time it was literally free money if you knew anything. Now bad players lost tons of money and tightened up, still plenty of money to go around if you know where to look.
	The most common games especially in the city are 1/2NL and 2/5NL .. Although the past year or so Omaha and rotation have been gaining momentum because it's so much more action.
Instead of putting up with 10% $15 cap rake, why don't you just take the bus/train/drive to AC and play at the Borgota?	I go to ac and Parx frequently but you CANNOT compare the action in clubs vs. casinos
Meaning the action in casino's is more? Right? So why would you not want to play in them?	The action in clubs is more.
Borgata or Parx: which do you prefer, and which has the better action for a moderate-skilled 1/2 player? Also, Casino 1/2 PLO; is the preflop action as heavy as it's rumored to be? I've heard that at Borgata, typical preflop PLO pot is $70.	I get to Parx in a hour, borgata in 2. I would go to Borgata for the weekend and give it 3 solid sessions. Borgata has more talent but there's still money for the taking in 1/2. The 2/5 in Parx is juicy if you go at the right time. Well yea in a action packed game it's going to be potted preflop. Te underground games it gets repotted often, W I L D.
I would think you have more experienced players in clubs, where you need to know people to even be allowed in the game, than the casino, where someone can wonder over from the slots.	Word spreads quick especially with free rolls and stuff so people brings friends and friends of friends.
So how is Teddy KGB doing these days?	Prick still owes me 2 dimes.
I see you smoke reefer. Is drug use something you see often? Are you willing to share if that answer is yes?	Yes and yes I guess.. It goes w the territory, there used to be games that would spark up the entire table nonstop.
How much money have you made?	I don't even want to know how much I'm up lifetime because i spent so much money doing crazy stuff. I used to not keep track but I average 2k a week for 3 1/2 nights work, cash obviously. I should've been saving but for 5 years I was making more because of action and more bad players. Also, going around the world, crazy shopping and living life.
How are you making so much from 1/2 a week? is bluffing a big part of your game? I still dont know how to incorporate it into the 1/2 cash games since most people are willing to call you light.	I play 1/2s in Brooklyn. It's a younger crowd and they're either overplaying or scared money.
Do you launder your money at all?	Only when I forget to take it out of my pockets.
You mentioned action at the clubs is way looser than that in casinos. What are we talking about here? Are there a lot of LAGs? Loose passive? How do you find out about the games? Are they open to anyone, or do you need an invitation or someone in the know to bring you in? How are you supposed to overcome a 10% uncapped rake? You need a huge edge over the table to make that work. Is the play that bad?	Loose passive for the most part, business men that get out of work and want to fool around before going home. They won't even play, just fish. They are open if someone brings you in and vouches for you.
Where's the advice? We're all ears..	I was bluffing.
Let's say I wanted to host games. First, is there money in it? And how does the house get paid? How much would the house make from a typical game you go to? What does the house provide? Just a secure location and a dealer?	Yes and waitress/massage girl. You can rake a % from every pot. You can also do a tournament with a fee say $100+$15 for the house. They make a fee thousand a night before expenses. Big games make alot.
What would the typical % per pot be?	5% with a cap is optimal for you so you won't affect the game much and still make a few.
Ever bang Famke Janssen?	No but I wouldn't mind owing her money and have her come try to collect.
So you were setup by the house and not the players? Did they deal from the bottom or something? What hand did you lose with when you were 'set up'?	I think I flopped a straight and he rivered a boat. He had a loaded deck, did a fake shuffle and ..
How could you tell you were being setup?	1st hand new deck, and house player beats cash player on the river suckout.
Damnnn... doesnt the deck get cut after every shuffle before the deal? I dunno the typical underground shuffling/dealing routines so I really am curious. If they can fake a shuffle they can fake a cut too eh. Although; I'm assuming there aren't permanent dealers unlike what you'd find in a casino.	When a new dealer comes in every 30minutes they have a deck. They're supposed to fan it out and show the players, sometimes they'll just wash or shuffle to speed things up.
While it looks suspicious I don't think that's enough info to conclude that the hand was rigged. I've seen suck outs like that in casinos yet nobody ever would make that conclusion but because it's an underground game suck out on the river is a set up? Aren't you jumping into conclusions too early? Or did you actually see more suspicious hands which added up to the whole game looking suspicious?	I've taken nasty beats as well. In Vegas I lost w quads twice in one night (no BBJ) it just didn't add up, i felt a very bad vibe and I took a shot and approached the guy. He could've denied and taken his stand but he folded instead.
Could you talk about the 1998 movie "Rounders," and how realistic/not realistic the movie was?	Surprisingly realistic to some degree.
Was it really based on norm macdonald?	Does a zebra have spots?
Some might.. still doesn't answer the question.	I'm not aware of any Norm McDonald connection.
Thanks for doing this AMA. What do you think the biggest weakness in your game is? Do you ever pick up on live tells? I havent really been able to spot any and wonder if there is anything to it. Do you love the rounding life? Regret it?	My biggest weakness is not playing more often. I do well so I only play 3/4 times a week because of gf, family, business ventures and life. Also I usually cash out once I triple up. I figure if I book a win for a thousand im satisfied, sometime I should stay of game is juicy. I pickup new tells every session. My people reading skills are definitely up to par. The money is good but the lifestyle around it is crazy .. The late night hours and characters involved. I don't regret it for a second, poker has been supporting me for a long time and has given me a flexible schedule to do other things on the side like go on reddit lol.
Thanks for the response! The one pattern I have noticed is if I play 4-5 days in a week my level of play seems to go down. Then if a take a break for a few days I always come back to stronger. I guess regarding tells there really are no global signs and its just very person specific?	Caros book of tells.. Use that as your foundation
Hey man, thanks for the AMA. Enjoyed reading it so far and have a few questions. Do you still enjoy playing? Is it more work now, or a bit of both? I ask as you mentioned you don't play too much. What's the biggest misconception, or thing that people get totally wrong about what you do? A lot of people here / on Reddit will ask about playing like a pro, but only for use in their house playing against friends and family. Would there be any more general advice you'd give to people in this situation about which aspects of their game to aim to improve? Cheers.	More work now .. People that dont know me and they don't know the grind just think I gamble it up trying to get lucky. I sit and wait then keep sitting and waiting and think and analyze players. Lot of information gets processed I before I even get involved. It takes me at least an hour or so to get a feel for the game. Be aggressive!
I just started playing poker, doing usually 6 table micros on LockPoker or so, and coming out for the most part winning. I have the hardest time with implied odds though, and using them accurately to calc EV and such. Can you explain them a little to me? Its just not second nature to me yet. I played a .5/1 live cash game last night and busted, it sucked but I guess its fine, last time I went I came out hundreds up, How do you deal with the bad beats? I have read mostly every 'good' poker book, but what one would you suggest I re-read? If you are playing in underground rooms, do you skip (some/all) taxes? Name on 2+2?	I just got back an hour ago from a long night, I'm sorry I don't want to type novels about ev or implied odds (google it) .. I deal with bad beats very well. I do NOT get emotional, if it's normal bad beat i simply play as if nothing happened. I'll actually get more action from the table because they assume I'm steaming. If its a huge monster bad beat I either cash out or take a trees timeout, that does the trick. No clue about the book, I've read and analyzed them all and you can extract valuable info from even the worst one, it's all about the experience on the table on my eyes. I have a side business for tax purposes.
What is the business?	I import merchandise and sell on amazon/ebay and to retailers
How old are you? How did you start finding these games? How long have you been playing poker?	27, I was 18 when I first discovered what goes on behind shady looking doors.
Talk etiquette. Is everyone friends? If not, are you friendly with these strangers, or is it all business? Do you shake hands, joke around, etc, or sit down, play and leave?	Very friendly usually.
I see a big jewish community, as a palestinian will i get harrased if i go to one of these clubs?	Not at all. Somehow everyone blends well in poker games. I know a lot of palestinians that play on the regular.
What would be the best way for a beginner to improve their game? Any specific books that you would recommend?	Super system thoroughly to get your brain thinking about it. There are plenty of very good forums online (2plus2). Plenty of resources out there.
How much time do you put in studying the game away from the tables? I've always heard that for every 4 hours you play, you should spend 1 hour studying (reviewing notes, reading the books, 2+2, etc). Is that an accurate ratio?	I've read all the books and go on forums all the time. I don't really have a ratio
How much do you rely on math in your play? I have a strong math/statistics background, I just finished reading Mathematics of Poker by Chen and Ankenman. It covered basic probability, bayesian probability, game theory, and heuristics for quick calculations. Do you find yourself using this stuff or is your play more intuitive?	My play is more intuitive.
How much do you usually go in the room with and how much do you take out?	Since every place knows me and I'm not stupid I dont walk in with cash just in case spmething goes down. If I lose I just take care of it after the game or day after. I usually have 3 bullets of 500 each. That's for an average 2/5 or 5/5 to sit down comfortably.
Do you give lessons? If so how much?	I gave pointers to friends and have helped people bring their skill level up. Me and some friends were thinking of marketing private poker lessons but im too lazy. If you're close by I wouldn't mind helping you, what's your offer?
Thanks for your input, gambling is not allowed in this sense in iceland so there is no culture for that, from as neutral or personal of a standpoint that you can manage, do you think gambling in this sense is good for a society/community or does it make t worse?	I don't know about society but I'm glad poker is around.
My question is how deep is Chinatown? I have heard there is gambling behind every Canal Street store creating almost a second level. Can you confirm and describe any of the places you have been in Chinatown?	That was not so recent. I'm sure i could find games in c town but they all speak chinese and I definitely don't trust that.
Do you have alligator blood? Also how does one find these games?	You gotta be in the loop and I'm not sure about the blood, gotta ask my primary care physician to be sure.
So presumably a lot of guys are making their living money this way? Where does the money come from? How do rubes get into the game (so that they can give you their money)?	Actually most people at these games come to gamble and hangout.
What's your cover story? Do you work a day job to keep up appearances, or do you just try not to live too extravagantly and draw too much attention? Does your girlfriend/family know this is what you do?	Yes they know what I do and I do daytime work as well. I definitely calmed down compared to how I used to live.
Is dealing at things like these done how movies depict it or how you would at a house game, with the "dealer" role actually moving with the button? Or is there a dedicated dealer for each game? Curiosity as a casino dealer.	Same as a casino dealer.
Do you ever splash the pot?	No but it's on my bucket list.
Biggest pot you were involved in? Win it?	38k pot .. Won 56k that session but I was being staked so only kept 40% .. Still booked a monster win so couldn't complain.
Wow awesome, do you look up to any pros? would you play HU with any of them if you had the br?	My style is more for a full table. I know a bunch pros personally and I invite them to games when they are in town. I fly to vegas on the regular just don't want to move there because I have too much stuff going on here.
Tips on finding these games? if i live in a different state.	Ask around? I can smell a game and I can pick out a poker player out of a crowd .. I'm a sick child.
What was your revelation in the game? I mean what insight really opened up your game and made you a good player instead of an average player and seperated you from the mass?	I started out dealing before playing for real. After a few months I noticed that players are making plenty of mistakes I could make them pay for. I slowly started grinding and found my style and it's been working for me for a long time. It's just a grind, you wait for your prime opportunity then you maximize and wait again.
Most profitable exploit?	Reraising a tilted aggressor with a set if you know he hit anything good.
Lol. step one. flop set. step two... make sure villian has something good and is on tilt. step 3.. raise. Yes, huge exploit you discovered there.	Maybe you can give me a good example and I'll put it into use lol.
What's your best advice on becoming better in general at poker?	Absorb as much information as possible and actually apply it! Find your leaks and seal them
Hi thanks for doing this. 2 questions. How did you fund your initial bank roll? What is a good way to work on reading people?	I organized a house game and raked a little bit and went from there. Caros book of tells and just start watching people. Look at the flop and your hole cards last, first watch players and pickup info to use. You'll get used to it after awhile.
How good are you at online poker?	Definitely rusty havent played for real in years.
What do you generally buy in with for a 5/5 NL?	I usually buy in whatever the average stack is. If the biggest chip stack is a fish then I'll buyin for the max. $500 is the usual amount early in the night/game.
Is there anything you do to maintain your health? Sitting for hours while eating junk food and stressing over hands must take a toll on your body.	I don't eat junk food and I try not to stress. I workout 5 days a week and play plenty of sports.
Is it "card-shark" or "card-sharp"?	Shark.
How to you keep from going on tilt after losing a massive all in 80/20 ?	I'm used to the bad beats. It's part of the game man.
How did you build your initial bankroll?	I started out running a house game without any intention of playing for a income and once the game died out and I had about $800 and didn't look back m. Never went broke either, I'm owed plenty though.
You mentionned robberies/raids and it never involving the players , im wondering is your money somehow ( insured ) even in the case of a robbery by the hosts ?	99% of the time you wont get your money back, that why I dont walk in with cash. There has been cases where the house gives players money back out of their own pocket but usually people take advantage and lie about the amounts lost.
Do you play on Merge?	I don't know what that is. I don't play online since they closed main sites I down years ago.
Ah, yeah just the network that US players use now. Was up in Canada last week playing on my dad's Pokerstars account. Goddam do I miss that shit.	It'll be back.
Let's hope! :) Anyways in regards to your thread: what are some of the bigger names you've played with in these underground games?	Players or celebrities?
Players.	Matusow, jamie gold, Ivey for 5 minutes. Lots of Internet pros, sry I'm tired can't think straight lol.
When you play can you calculate in your head the number of outs, pot/implied odds and EV? I can roughly calculate the number of outs in certain hands and maybe pot odds, but it's still gets my head spinning. It boggles my mind that people can do that much number crunching in their heads every hand they are in, so I wonder if serious players actually do it?	I ballpark it.
Is your thinking along the lines of "I have X many cards to make my hand, if I call $X I can win $X" and make your decision on that? That's about as far as I am right now with my thinking. For example, if I'm facing a call and I need one card to make a flush and say I need to call $3 to make $30, I will usually make the call. Is that proper thinking?	Give or take .. I do all the equations in my heads during the actions while trying to read players and order a drink from waitress as I smoke a cigarette
As someone who lives an hour from AC, I can confirm that Asians love to gamble.	Because they can't drive properly on the way there?
Do you ever plan on "retiring". If so, what will you?	Sure why not.
I went to the casino last weekend for the first time. I went into the poker room and sat down at a 1-1 table with $60. As soon as I sat down I completely forgot how to play. I have been playing since I was like 8. I just got so nervous for some reason. Did that ever happen to you? Have you ever gotten so nervous you completely forget what you're doing?	No.
Why do you think super system is relevant to the current hold em game? Frankly, why do you think 5/5 live poker is interesting enough for an AMA?	I don't know.
Word met up? i have a few friends in bk.	Send me a pm.
Does the place get shaked down by the mob?	A few games pay for 'protection'
What is the best advice you can give to a player suffering consecutive losses? I always felt I was decent at the game, but my record lately doesn't seem to agree with me.	Take a break and analyze your game. Maybe the stakes aren't right maybe your game selection is off.
What is your current bankroll?	About 55k.
At what point will you move to 5/10? (i'm assuming these clubs run 1000NL, right?)	I play 5/10 if a friend refers a juicy soft game to me.
The Sands casino in Bethlehem, PA has real juicy 5/10 action. $1500 max.	I never had a chance to go. I'm going to check it out this coming weekend.
I'm curious about this.. I would never expect big faces in an underground scene especially since they probably know plenty of ("home") games. Why take a risk (seems like a small risk from what OP has been saying) when they can just play legit.	Action and credit and comfort of it. Trees alcohol strippers whatever the players want basically.
You should crosspost this to /poker	How can I do that? I'll give u poker advice in return.
I hope your not smoking them dutches also where in ny im in ny i want to play	Bk all day.
Some horse/backer agreements will have a make-up or cake stipulation. The losses are originally eaten by the backer, but then a percentage of future wins goes towards paying back a percentage of the previous losses.	True.
SPOILERS! I'm only on Season 2 :(	He misses the gutshots :/
Came here to ask about robberies/raids.	Go on.

Last updated: 2012-09-02 17:16 UTC
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