All,
Hope you're all doing well and are safe.
I read the Bit Short a while ago and have continued to read into this issue and have not found any substantive evidence to refute it. I've tried looking into possible explanations as to why Tether is not a fraud but haven't been able to find anything substantive.
The only relatively "legit" reason (whilst still a conspiracy) is that the US government is behind BTC / Tether hence they won't let it collapse. (I mean, Tether is basically a quasi US Fed that's printing unlimited money with no backing).
If anyone has seen any conclusive evidence that Tether is not a fraud, please post it here. This would make me sell my puts on MSTR and long BTC. I'm always revisit my investment thesis to make sure it is sound which is why I am asking.
Thank you in advanced!
N.B: I currently have put options on MSTR as I think this is a asymmetrical bet. The assuming the odds of the case are 2:1, the payout from a put is at least 100:1 hence this is something I'm willing to bet on.
*Edit 1: Apologies for the confusion, my maximum payout is 84:1 assuming the options you purchase are for Dec-21, strike price of $85 with a premium of $1. The language was very misleading with the "at least" and "100:1". I was a bit too excited (and liberal) with my math when I was typing this.
Thesis assumes that MSTR's equity value will be $0m assuming they do not liquidate any BTC they've purchased and hold it to 0.
Prior to the purchase of BTC, their equity value was c.$1bn with c.$500m in cash implying the base business is valued at $500m ($65.6 per share with 7.26m shares outstanding).
However, given they took on $650m in debt to purchase more btc, I'm confident the value of the base business will also take a hit because given how the market will lose confidence in MSTR's strategy hence the share price will dip significantly below the c.$66 per share.

This writing was copied from my blog https://nope-its-lily.medium.com/. I write about the NOPE and other options and market things there and on my twitter https://twitter.com/nope_its_lily. Cheers!
Check out Part 1 first about my thoughts on the short squeeze thesis. To clarify — I do think shorts are being squeezed in Gamestop, although this is auxiliary to the main driver of the stock’s momentum (and not, in my opinion, the primary driver of Friday’s exponential rise).
So okay, let’s go to the obvious question — if hedge fund tears didn’t cause Gamestop to rocket, what did cause it?
Wew laddy, +71.25% at the peak.
Gamestop in many ways is an extraordinary story, and has all the properties of a successful meme stock (salience):

Personal name recognition/Nostalgia-For better or worse, we all know/remember Gamestop (primarily from childhood), which is similarly why Hertez performed so well in the afterlife while Mallinckrodt hasn’t.
A hero and a villain — Much like Tesla, Ryan Cohen represents the hero in the Gamestop narrative, where investors can paint whatever picture of the future they want and justify whatever price tag they pay. Similarly, Melvin and Citron (I mean, even the name Melvin) and the hedge fund industry are (perhaps well-deserved) villains in the arc, helping obfuscate feelings of greed or risk by presenting it as a righteous cause.
A cataly-ish — For obvious reasons Gamestop is benefiting from the console cycle, but perhaps to a lesser degree than before (its massive real world presence during a pandemic doesn’t help much).
Humor-What could be more funny than investing in a relic of the early 2000s? Except maybe investing billions into 3d renderings of hydrogen powered cars.

So it isn’t a surprise Gamestop captivated the attention of the internet; despite common belief, the legend of Gamestop extended far outside wallstreetbets (although the saga of DeepFuckingValue/RoaringKitty there helped bring substantial energy to the cause).
And how does the internet show some love?
Well, it buys calls.
For better or worse, most new investors have absolutely no concept outside of simple long call/put positions (probably for the best, from experience). In general, most new market positions view long options (and, let’s face it, mostly calls) as a highly leveraged bet on the underlying akin to a lotto ticket, which works beautifully for the following reasons:

Long options have asymmetric risk-reward, assuming risk-loving participants.

While in prior posts I’ve touched on the expected profit of options being zero, this is only true (it’s never actually true, due to seller’s, variance risk premium, and a host of other factors) under risk-neutral measure. In the real world, investors (especially on indices) tend to be risk-averse (weighting losses more heavily than chance of gain)… at least historically. The new class of retail investors, on the other hand, partly engendered by Robinhood’s extremely gamified UI tends to be risk-loving (“yolos”), favoring chance of gain over (higher) chance of loss.
For that type of an investor, options are akin to a casino due to convexity, or in layman’s terms, “the potential to go up a lot really fast” in value. This is of course true for stocks too (albeit less so, due to the implied leverage of options), but when an individual purchases a stock they have a rather large downside (the entire stock can become worthless). This isn’t the case for a call option, which only represents a portion of the total cost of the stock, but represents the entire upside.
2. Options have to be hedged… often in the underlying.
Before I get 1000 responses telling me this isn’t always true (especially on indices, where you have futures and all sorts of nice things) — it’s more or less true on a meme stock, which basically has no beta or correlation to any other stock (except perhaps other meme stocks). In general, one can anticipate that an option written by a market maker and sold to a retail investor (who owns a long position from that transaction) is hedged in the underlying stock, which obeys the same rules of buying and selling pressure. This is even more apparent in stocks with low float, which tend to move in price substantially with relatively low volume traded. You can imagine how few option contracts it similarly takes (given the implied leverage up to 100 shares worth of delta) to actually move the price (I’ve seen call options move the spot in real time, for instance, on Del Taco stock before earnings).
3. Option buying begets option buying.
What happens when a few individuals buy options on a stock? It moves up slightly (usually in proportion to how many options were bought, what time period they were bought in, and how large the underlying’s float is). This triggers the happy centers in peoples’ brains (yay, we’re making money) and triggers more buying of calls.
More interestingly, option convexity is largely due to the Greek gamma, which simply refers to the rate delta changes in response to changes in the underlying’s spot price. Delta more formally measures how much we expect the option price to change as the spot price changes, but more usefully for this example can represent how many shares equivalent the option contract controls at the given price. This is why delta represents the hedge ratio — if you, for instance, write a 100 delta (ITM) call option and sell it, you need to equivalently own 100 shares of that stock to neutralize your risk.
Delta is interesting (my favorite Greek) because it is heavily non-linear, and changes in response to:

Spot price (gamma)
Time to expiration of the option (charm)
Volatility of the underlying (vanna)

These are all second order derivatives, so you probably are lost by now if you didn’t take calculus at some point.
So why is gamma important here?
Source: quantik.org
Unlike controlling the equivalent delta’s worth of shares, the value of an option contract increases at a faster rate as it gets closer to in-the-money. This is (one of the reasons) why options have convexity — the value of an OTM call option contract goes up faster as it gets closer to ITM, with a potential for (5,10,100,200+)**-**baggers (multiples of how much you paid for the initial) if you play it right.
What’s even more interesting though than gamma alone, however, is pairing it with theta, the decay of an option’s value as the time-to-expiration draws closer. This tends to have a strong relationship to the implied volatility — theta represents the time value of the option (extrinsic), and implied volatility is largely the market consensus of the potential for the underlying to move in the time remaining on the option. However, as the days tick down, the time for that move to actually happen diminishes, and therefore the value of the option similarly goes down with it.
As IV increases, theta usually does (especially on short term options), and vice versa. (Helpful video by the tastytrade crew — https://www.tastytrade.com/shows/market-measures/episodes/theta-and-iv-05-17-2019)
So, given my tendency to ramble, the question is — why is this important? Let’s look at gamma and theta in the context of 0-day-to-expiration (0dte) options, and try to piece together what happened to Gamestop on January 22, 2021.

0 Days to Live

0dte options have long been a mainstay of the dopamine addicted day-trader community (including me, sometimes) given they represent the purest form of lottery ticket:

They expire at the end of the day — You don’t need to go to bed and worry about your position, because it’s either closed or worthless.
They’re cheap, generally-Theta in particular becomes exponential for 0dte options, and you can quickly buy positions on sale just to gamble as the end of the day grows closer.
They still represent implied leverage and have that tasty convexity-Like their more respectable brethren, 0dte options still represent the underlying and have all the neat Greeks (gamma, delta, vanna, pajamas, etc.) which make their payouts non-linear and fun.

In general, the optimal strategy to capitalize on 0dte long options is to buy as late as possible in the day, to allow theta to provide as much leverage to you as cheaply as possible.

Let’s Imagine a Scenario Here

Let’s imagine you have a high implied volatility stock that has been stable/slightly declining in price for multiple days. During that time period, theta is aggressively destroying the value of long options, while IV is similarly dropping (both due to theta and due to relative lack of movement). As we get to the final day (this is a weekly, for example), much of the option’s value has now disappeared.
This impacts both put and calls open, though. And let’s say a mean orange decided to start a war on your stock in the days before, causing a flood of short-term puts to hit the market during that week, which had minimal effect (largely due to continual call buying of longer-dated options coupled with actual shares buying pressure due to belief of a short squeeze/Ryan Cohen being the second coming of Christ).
What happens when those puts start to expire? As the days and then hours tick down, the hedges of those put positions (shorted shares) start to unwind, and buying pressure picks up.
Similarly, this buying pressure is noticed by market participants, who start to capitalize on the momentum by buying 0dte call options. These at first have minimal impact, largely because the inflow and outflow of call delta are roughly equivalent (somewhat of a bias towards inflow, pushing price up alongside share buying).
But towards the middle of the day, two interesting things happen:

Theta and charm become more and more prominent in both making new option positions cheaper and unwinding existing put and call positions.
Gamma starts to become more dominant due to the high implied leverage versus cost of 0dtes, leading to the virtuous cycle (option buying begets option buying).

These two effects tend to be complementary — as the hedges unwind (given the weekly puts from Citron/the short seller attack) for existing option positions, new 0dte positions can be bought and bought, each time pushing up the underlying as well as increasing the value and delta of other 0dte positions.
This can be neatly observed in the option volume versus open interest for the 1/22 series on GME:
This is fine.
Although more puts traded, the delta (for obvious reasons) of calls is much higher.
As the price of the stock goes higher and higher, this continues to attract more and more speculation, hoping to capitalize on the continued momentum. This continues in a loop:

The price of the underlying continues to increase as put hedges unwind, volatility spikes, and call options are bought (the initial delta hedge).
The increase in price leads to gamma of existing contracts increasing the delta of those contracts.
This leads to more shares being bought to hedge those increasingly higher delta positions.
This leads to more speculation and momentum.

An interesting property of $GME from Friday you can neatly observe is the highest strike in the series is $60, meaning that at Friday’s close, every single call option expiring 1/22 expired ITM. More interestingly is the relationship with gamma, again observable below:
Source: quantik.org
As a contract moves further and further ITM (at one point, GME hit $76 intraday), the gamma of the contract decreases as delta hits 100 on the position. This implies a cap on the momentum from the virtuous cycle described above — while continued call buying can of course drive up the price further, not only does the cost become prohibitive (given that a deep-ITM position is basically equivalent to buying 100 shares in payout), it becomes linear (and therefore boring). Once 100 delta is reached, there is no more cycle of increasing spot price causing increasing share buying, only normal share buying.
And that’s when it drops.
It’s hard to say whether the halt caused the drop (given the mental association halts have to pump and dumps for most investors). In this case the drop assuredly coincided with the halt, but more importantly, we can observe where the drop ended:

57.99 is such a pretty number.
In this case, we can observe the drop in price stabilized at $58, before rapidly jumping above $60. This is largely due to gamma and continued 0dte call buying buttressing the fall — as the positions fell farther OTM, shares used to hedge those positions are sold off, further driving the price down (in this scenario, the dealers are almost assuredly short gamma). However, similarly those positions-now closeOTM and close to expiry-become cheaper at a fairly exponential rate (due to theta and charm).
Speculators again gain conviction, pushing the price up above the highest strike (to the point where gamma provides no real extra push versus the clock ticking down).
This is what we call a gamma squeeze, and isn’t a terribly uncommon phenomenon. It largely follows similar patterns:

In general, gamma squeezes tend to happen closer to OPEX, due to both hedge unwinding (in the case of a previous put skew, for instance) and due to the 0dte effects mentioned.
In general, there is both a rapid rise (due to gamma looping and speculators joining) with a similarly steep cliff (especially if the available strikes is exhausted, like what happened to $GME).

Can it be continued forever, though?

In general, the answer unfortunately is yes.
Gamma squeezes in generally power meme stocks, and require a few elements to be true:

Continued supply of strikes and promise of convexity — Put gamma squeezes rarely happen because well, the maximum value of a put option occurs when the underlying hits 0. Calls, however, have an infinite potential payoff and strikes similarly can be added indefinitely. This allows continued creation of OTM options, which due to cheap premium and asymmetric risk-reward on longs power the gamma squeeze.
Continued momentum-In general, meme stocks follow the greater fool theory, despite promise of rocket emojis. When they drop, they drop hard.

Oopsies.
This is because, as previously mentioned, meme stocks are powered by long calls sold by market makers, who are chronically short gamma. Any selling begets more selling. Even periods of quiescence are dangerous, because without continued inflow of call delta, hedges unwind, and the selling pressure begins.

Continued attention-This is where salience shines. The major reason Tesla (the OG gamma squeeze) continued to rocket throughout 2020 was largely due to Elon Musk’s charisma and Tesla’s promise of a better world. It becomes a lot easier to stomach risk for an investor when following a strong personality with a killer story. This role was largely played in Gamestop’s saga by Ryan Cohen, and fed into (potentially unwittingly) by the battle with Citron and the mystique of DeepFuckingValue. It remains, however, to be seen if this will continue.

The moral of the story here is retail, for better or for worse, finally learned how to weaponize options. We’ll see what happens next.

Hey there fellow investors,
after spending a lot of time reading this and other finance related subreddits, I'm quite overwhelmed by how helpful the people here actually are. So probs to you guys! I really hope you could give me advice, too.
So I'm fairly new to investing. I've read tons of information about how to read fundamentals, how to value stocks, what safe and not so safe investments are. I even have some knowledge about technical analysis due to my experience in forex trading.
Investing in the stock market though seems to always have some kind of false bottom opening up, the further I go with gathering information. It's also very opinion driven, there is no 100% objective analysis. That's why I'm asking you guys haha
My concern is about my general investment strategy, as I'm starting to work full time in a well paid job and want to invest a maximum amount of money to essentially be less and less dependant from this job. It's not a "retire early" kind of thing, I just work better knowing that my ends meet well.

Strategy one would be constantly investing in ETFs and or Indexfunds and forget about all that for 30 years. That has proven to be the safest bet with the well known annual return of about 7%. I have to say that this is just not me. Such a long timeframe is not planable at all in my opinion.
The second strategy would be spending a bit more time and picking good companies to fill a stable portfolio with promising companies. FAANG would be a good start, but of course the world is only limited to one's own mental capability of analysis.
Strategy number three would be a dividend portfolio. This has the potential upside of a constantly growing cashflow. To reach a significant payout one has to invest a lot of money, though.
The last strategy would be building a speculative portfolio. This requires a lot of time, research and balls.

To make this a bit more interesting for you, I've picked a few stocks corresponding to the strategies and are not overheated:
- $INTC would be my choice to add to a quite stable, long term growing portfolio. I know, there are a lot of controversies about that company, but the bottom line is that they have a lot of upside potential and are almost "too big to fail". Their IoT projects are quite promising and the change of their CEO will lead them to a better place.
- $KO Coca Cola is one of the dividend kings. I understand the businnes concept and it's a more or less safe bet, even under current pandemic circumstances. Sooner or later everything will open again and that will cause a spike in consume.
- $GTHX would be my risky choice as I understand that it could be very undervalued. I've read quite a bit and the growth potential seems immense to me.
Or would you just wait a bit and see if all the crash prophets are right and the bubble will burst, probably still in Q1 2021?
I'm not looking for financial advice, just for your guide and educated opinions. :)
Thank you in advance!

Hello investors,
So far, we have talked about the following trading plans for executing options trades. I'll quickly go over them below to ensure that everyone is on the same page. I want to be sure we are aware of the reasons why we are buying certain types of options and the mechanics of realizing profits from them.
Options Trading Part I (Which Options to Buy) - 11/16/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/jvivvt/options_trading_part_i_which_options_to_buy/
This post basically explains the concept of getting the maximum convexity on your return profile, which is a fancy way of saying getting the best returns for a unit of risk you are taking.
For instance, if you are betting a $100 on a company, you might as well do it using options because you could potentially get higher returns for a little more, if not the same, amount of risk you are taking.
You want to play a game where you will receive $300 for every $100 you bet, 3:1 payout ratio, not $100 for every $100 you bet, 1:1 payout ratio, which is the case for owning shares in a company.
Name of the game, purchase options with the best risk/reward scenarios.
(To determine the payout profile, almost all brokers offer the calculations to show what happens to the value of the option if stock price goes down by 30% or up by 30%.)
Options Trading Part II (When to Exit or Rollover Positions) - 11/28/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/k2yluoptions_trading_part_ii_when_to_exit_or_rollove
The next post explains when to close out your positions. Again, it goes off the idea of understanding your risk/reward for every position that you have and either existing your positions or rollover them based on how the situation has changed.
For example, if you purchased an OTM call option expiring in 12 months and 4 months later, you're already in-the-money with 4x your initial investment in unrealized capital gains.
At this point, your payout profile will look much worse than when you first entered the trade, meaning for every $1 upward movement in the stock price, you will gain $10 and a $1 downward movement in the stock price will decrease the value of your options by roughly $10, resulting in a 1:1 payout profile, which is almost the same as owning shares in a company as we discussed above.
Therefore, you need to answer the following question:

Are you bullish or bearish on the stock in the next 8 months (the remaining life of the option)? Will there be external market forces that could hurt the stock's performance?

If the answer is bullish, then I would say either keep the options or rollover into more OTM option.
You would keep the options if you think the stock will still appreciate in the next 8 months but the upward movement won't be anywhere explosive, so you're essentially owning shares in the company at this point.
You would rollover into more OTM options at the same expiration date when you're still feeling very bullish on the company in the next 8 months and think that the stock could rise another 30% so you want the best payout profile. This also limits your risk by cutting down the weight of this option in your overall portfolio.
Options Trading Part III (Fighting the Theta Decay) - 12/13/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/kcpzpq/options_trading_part_iii_fighting_the_theta_decay/
Lastly, this post was about how theta plays a role in calculating your returns.
It basically says that shorter period options are risky considering how much more theta decay plays a role compared to the intermediate and longer period options.
Please see the summary below:
1) Invest in the best risk/reward option terms.
2) Manage your risks by either keeping your options position or rolling them over and limiting your exposure, assuming you're still bullish on the stock.
3) Be aware of the risks of theta decay when buying short-term (3-6 months) options.
Which brings me to the topic for today's post: Leveraging Margins and Long-Term Options to Amplify Returns.
I believe that the optimal strategy to invest in a company that you believe in is to buy LEAPS on the company's stock.
(LEAPS are "long-term equity anticipation securities", another fancy word for long-term options.)
Why? Because it has the three key characteristics we are looking for:
1) Best risk/reward option terms.
2) Easier to manage risks.
3) Lower theta decay risks.
I'll go into the details of why LEAPS are suitable for our purposes.
1) Best risk/reward option terms.
The reason why LEAPS offer the best risk/reward scenarios, in my opinion, is that it gives you two things: 1) time to play out your thesis and 2) self-discipline.

It gives you sufficient time to play out your thesis. Say you buy LEAPS on a company thinking that its next year's earnings will crush the estimates due to the amount of pricing power that the company has or the success of their international expansion plans.

On catalysts like these, you need more time for the stock to play true to the company's financial performance.
For instance, you bought Thor Industries, a recreational vehicle manufacturer, thinking that people will go for outdoor camping more due to COVID. What if Trump came out and said that the US will raise tariffs on aluminum, a key component of RVs? This will temporarily depress the stock price and if you had short-term options, you will likely realize losses.
If you had bought 2-year option, however, the stock would be given enough time to recover and actually rise above your entry point given that the tariffs news fades away and Thor Industries reports earnings that crushes the consensus estimates.
The key aspect to remember is the leverage involved in an option.
Leverage is when you put $100 to bet on a company but you actually get $1000 exposure, meaning you get 10x the exposure.
When you buy an option, you pay $1k in options premium to buy 1 call option contract on NIO to get $2800 of stock exposure ($56 stock price *100 shares * 50% delta) because each options contract is in units of 100 shares of the underlying stock.
(Delta is the sensitivity of the option price movement given $1 change in the underlying stock price. If Delta is 50% and the stock increases $1, your option price will increase by 50%.)
The point I wanted to make is that options in general provide you a leverage, which amplifies your return.
Therefore, for the amount of risk you are taking (the hefty premium paid for longer-dated options) against the reward you are receiving (the stock appreciation amplified by leverage), LEAPS offer good opportunities.
2) LEAPS also offer self-discipline.
By incentivizing you to hold on to your LEAPS when the market panics and the stock sells off, it allows you to be more disciplined, which is a key factor in a successful investing as I alluded to here.
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/kpfx3h/investing_philosophy_part_iii_can_you_actually/
And of course, people will be more incentivized to hold onto their options to benefit from long-term capital gains tax.
2) Easier to manage risks.
LEAPS are easier to manage risks because you know the amount of money you're risking to lose and you know what your returns will look like in different scenarios because it's a relatively same payout profile as owning shares but magnified due to leverage.
More importantly, it's easier to keep track of their performances as we have less complex trades, compared to say a box spread trade that requires more complex strategy.
3) Lower theta decay risks.
Longer options have lower impact from the theta decay. For instance, a 2-year option price will decline by only 10% if the stock price stays the same after 5 months, whereas an 8-month option price will decline by 30-40% if the stock price stays the same after 5 months.
I also sell naked put options on a short-term basis to benefit from the theta decay but since it limits the upside potential, I tend to express my view on a company through LEAPS.
The situations where I will sell naked put options is when I think the stock is overvalued and want a chance to buy the shares at a lower price but still want to collect some income if the stock price appreciates in the short-term.
For instance, a 4-week $350 OTM put option on Costco was trading at $4 premium and the underlying stock closed at $361 on 1/15/2021.
If I thought COST was overvalued, I would want to sell this put option and collect $4 premium. If the stock declines to $345, I am more than happy to cover my put options by buying shares at $350, a price lower than $361 on 1/15/2021.
Sell puts at the lowest price when you want to buy a stock. When price goes down, you can purchase the stock. This is a bullish view.
And since I firmly believe that Costco won't fall by 20-30% given the low volatility of the stock, I'm also not worried about losing lots of money when the stock goes down.
Alternatively, sell call option at exercise price where you think the stock will max out at. This is when you already own the stock and you want to cash out at a certain price point.
This is all to say that theta decay risks are lower for LEAPS and if you want a step ahead, you could potentially sell put options in the short-term to collect income. And btw, this is also a strategy that Warren Buffett uses all the time.
To summarize, LEAPS offer a way to both limit our risks and amplify our returns, while also gaining the tax advantage.
I wanted to also mention using margins in this post since we discussed the concept of leverage.
I am all in favor of using margins and if managed properly, it can be a great way to gain advantage as an individual investor.
Every single hedge fund and private equity uses some type of leverage, whether in the form of futures, margins, or options, to magnify their returns.
If you were receiving 10% return on a very diversified, safe portfolio in a year, I believe margins will offer a way to magnify that return while limiting risks.
Say $100k is invested across 50 very safe, low volatility stocks and you borrow $100k on margin to invest $200k total. What are the chances of your entire portfolio going down by 50%? Aka $100k and losing all your money?
Not to encourage you to take so much risk but adding margins while properly managing risks is a great way to enhance your performance.
Thanks for reading everyone and as always, please feel free to suggest any topic you want to discuss!
Cheers.

Hello investors,
So far, we have talked about the following trading plans for executing options trades. I'll quickly go over them below to ensure that everyone is on the same page. I want to be sure we are aware of the reasons why we are buying certain types of options and the mechanics of realizing profits from them.
Options Trading Part I (Which Options to Buy) - 11/16/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/jvivvt/options_trading_part_i_which_options_to_buy/
This post basically explains the concept of getting the maximum convexity on your return profile, which is a fancy way of saying getting the best returns for a unit of risk you are taking.
For instance, if you are betting a $100 on a company, you might as well do it using options because you could potentially get higher returns for a little more, if not the same, amount of risk you are taking.
You want to play a game where you will receive $300 for every $100 you bet, 3:1 payout ratio, not $100 for every $100 you bet, 1:1 payout ratio, which is the case for owning shares in a company.
Name of the game, purchase options with the best risk/reward scenarios.
(To determine the payout profile, almost all brokers offer the calculations to show what happens to the value of the option if stock price goes down by 30% or up by 30%.)
Options Trading Part II (When to Exit or Rollover Positions) - 11/28/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/k2yluoptions_trading_part_ii_when_to_exit_or_rollove
The next post explains when to close out your positions. Again, it goes off the idea of understanding your risk/reward for every position that you have and either existing your positions or rollover them based on how the situation has changed.
For example, if you purchased an OTM call option expiring in 12 months and 4 months later, you're already in-the-money with 4x your initial investment in unrealized capital gains.
At this point, your payout profile will look much worse than when you first entered the trade, meaning for every $1 upward movement in the stock price, you will gain $10 and a $1 downward movement in the stock price will decrease the value of your options by roughly $10, resulting in a 1:1 payout profile, which is almost the same as owning shares in a company as we discussed above.
Therefore, you need to answer the following question:

Are you bullish or bearish on the stock in the next 8 months (the remaining life of the option)? Will there be external market forces that could hurt the stock's performance?

If the answer is bullish, then I would say either keep the options or rollover into more OTM option.
You would keep the options if you think the stock will still appreciate in the next 8 months but the upward movement won't be anywhere explosive, so you're essentially owning shares in the company at this point.
You would rollover into more OTM options at the same expiration date when you're still feeling very bullish on the company in the next 8 months and think that the stock could rise another 30% so you want the best payout profile. This also limits your risk by cutting down the weight of this option in your overall portfolio.
Options Trading Part III (Fighting the Theta Decay) - 12/13/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/kcpzpq/options_trading_part_iii_fighting_the_theta_decay/
Lastly, this post was about how theta plays a role in calculating your returns.
It basically says that shorter period options are risky considering how much more theta decay plays a role compared to the intermediate and longer period options.
Please see the summary below:
1) Invest in the best risk/reward option terms.
2) Manage your risks by either keeping your options position or rolling them over and limiting your exposure, assuming you're still bullish on the stock.
3) Be aware of the risks of theta decay when buying short-term (3-6 months) options.
Which brings me to the topic for today's post: Leveraging Margins and Long-Term Options to Amplify Returns.
I believe that the optimal strategy to invest in a company that you believe in is to buy LEAPS on the company's stock.
(LEAPS are "long-term equity anticipation securities", another fancy word for long-term options.)
Why? Because it has the three key characteristics we are looking for:
1) Best risk/reward option terms.
2) Easier to manage risks.
3) Lower theta decay risks.
I'll go into the details of why LEAPS are suitable for our purposes.
1) Best risk/reward option terms.
The reason why LEAPS offer the best risk/reward scenarios, in my opinion, is that it gives you two things: 1) time to play out your thesis and 2) self-discipline.

It gives you sufficient time to play out your thesis. Say you buy LEAPS on a company thinking that its next year's earnings will crush the estimates due to the amount of pricing power that the company has or the success of their international expansion plans.

On catalysts like these, you need more time for the stock to play true to the company's financial performance.
For instance, you bought Thor Industries, a recreational vehicle manufacturer, thinking that people will go for outdoor camping more due to COVID. What if Trump came out and said that the US will raise tariffs on aluminum, a key component of RVs? This will temporarily depress the stock price and if you had short-term options, you will likely realize losses.
If you had bought 2-year option, however, the stock would be given enough time to recover and actually rise above your entry point given that the tariffs news fades away and Thor Industries reports earnings that crushes the consensus estimates.
The key aspect to remember is the leverage involved in an option.
Leverage is when you put $100 to bet on a company but you actually get $1000 exposure, meaning you get 10x the exposure.
When you buy an option, you pay $1k in options premium to buy 1 call option contract on NIO to get $2800 of stock exposure ($56 stock price *100 shares * 50% delta) because each options contract is in units of 100 shares of the underlying stock.
(Delta is the sensitivity of the option price movement given $1 change in the underlying stock price. If Delta is 50% and the stock increases $1, your option price will increase by 50%.)
The point I wanted to make is that options in general provide you a leverage, which amplifies your return.
Therefore, for the amount of risk you are taking (the hefty premium paid for longer-dated options) against the reward you are receiving (the stock appreciation amplified by leverage), LEAPS offer good opportunities.
2) LEAPS also offer self-discipline.
By incentivizing you to hold on to your LEAPS when the market panics and the stock sells off, it allows you to be more disciplined, which is a key factor in a successful investing as I alluded to here.
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/kpfx3h/investing_philosophy_part_iii_can_you_actually/
And of course, people will be more incentivized to hold onto their options to benefit from long-term capital gains tax.
2) Easier to manage risks.
LEAPS are easier to manage risks because you know the amount of money you're risking to lose and you know what your returns will look like in different scenarios because it's a relatively same payout profile as owning shares but magnified due to leverage.
More importantly, it's easier to keep track of their performances as we have less complex trades, compared to say a box spread trade that requires more complex strategy.
3) Lower theta decay risks.
Longer options have lower impact from the theta decay. For instance, a 2-year option price will decline by only 10% if the stock price stays the same after 5 months, whereas an 8-month option price will decline by 30-40% if the stock price stays the same after 5 months.
I also sell naked put options on a short-term basis to benefit from the theta decay but since it limits the upside potential, I tend to express my view on a company through LEAPS.
The situations where I will sell naked put options is when I think the stock is overvalued and want a chance to buy the shares at a lower price but still want to collect some income if the stock price appreciates in the short-term.
For instance, a 4-week $350 OTM put option on Costco was trading at $4 premium and the underlying stock closed at $361 on 1/15/2021.
If I thought COST was overvalued, I would want to sell this put option and collect $4 premium. If the stock declines to $345, I am more than happy to cover my put options by buying shares at $350, a price lower than $361 on 1/15/2021.
Sell puts at the lowest price when you want to buy a stock. When price goes down, you can purchase the stock. This is a bullish view.
And since I firmly believe that Costco won't fall by 20-30% given the low volatility of the stock, I'm also not worried about losing lots of money when the stock goes down.
Alternatively, sell call option at exercise price where you think the stock will max out at. This is when you already own the stock and you want to cash out at a certain price point.
This is all to say that theta decay risks are lower for LEAPS and if you want a step ahead, you could potentially sell put options in the short-term to collect income. And btw, this is also a strategy that Warren Buffett uses all the time.
To summarize, LEAPS offer a way to both limit our risks and amplify our returns, while also gaining the tax advantage.
I wanted to also mention using margins in this post since we discussed the concept of leverage.
I am all in favor of using margins and if managed properly, it can be a great way to gain advantage as an individual investor.
Every single hedge fund and private equity uses some type of leverage, whether in the form of futures, margins, or options, to magnify their returns.
If you were receiving 10% return on a very diversified, safe portfolio in a year, I believe margins will offer a way to magnify that return while limiting risks.
Say $100k is invested across 50 very safe, low volatility stocks and you borrow $100k on margin to invest $200k total. What are the chances of your entire portfolio going down by 50%? Aka $100k and losing all your money?
Not to encourage you to take so much risk but adding margins while properly managing risks is a great way to enhance your performance.
Thanks for reading everyone and as always, please feel free to suggest any topic you want to discuss!
Cheers.

This guide aims to outline all of the best gambling cashback offers available over a range of sites, following this guide you should be able to make over £500 in cashback
Note - Cashback often takes a while to payout, bear this in mind when completing offers as you may have to wait to cashout your earnings
When completing these offers don't chase any loses as the cashback will give you a profit with nerly every offer
A short review of each site and some referral links
Topcashback - Cashback will show as tracked within a few days, can take a few weeks to become payable, in some cases even longer, asides from gambling they have great offers for car insurance and mobile phone contracts, worth taking a look to save some extra money!
Ref - Extra £5 when you make £10 cashback
Non-Ref - No reward
Quidco - Much the same as Topcashback
Ref
Non-Ref
Minimum payment - £10
Ohmydosh - Faster Payouts but less offers
Ref - Extra £1
Non-Ref - No reward
Minimum payout - Any
Cashback Earners - A lesser known site in need of a fresh look, this site also has some bad reviews, referal income is paid to the site on a monthly basis with the dates for each site being different, offers don't seem to show as tracked until the website receive their payment, cashback should appear in your account within 1 month of completing an offer. Cashout amounts are specific, its best to build up a balance and then withdraw. Payment takes around 3 weeks.
Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5
Non-Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5
Minimum payout is £20
Payment Proof - Payments for all sites can be seen here, quidco isn't shown as i have signed up for all the casinos on offer through topcashback

How to Maximize Profit - IMPORTANT - READ THIS

For the majority of these offers you want to play blackjack following the chart found here
Any blackjack game will do, look for a normal version of the game at the site you are playing on and make sure it is a non live game as the hand sizes will be lower.
When playing blackjack there will often be more than one spot that you can bet on, allowing the player to bet more than one hand at a time, Its important to only bet on one spot at a time as it reduces the variance of the game and will ensure you get the maximum return possible from the game, stick to £1 hand sizes when playing and dont be tempted to bet larger amounts as you will be getting a nice amount of cashback from every offer
Through playing blackjack this way the player will get a return of around 98%, meaning for every £100 staked you will lose around £2. If you make a loss on a casino site after completing the required wagering amount, withdraw your remaining balance, don't chase loses as the cashback will make up for loses and give you a profit in most cases.
All offers are updated fairly regularly, make sure to check the terms for each offer as information in this post may become outdated. Also check for other offers every now and then as new casinos are added!

TopCashBack Offers - £400+ Profit

Topcashback Referral - Get an extra £5 - See the Ref Link at the top of the page!
If you dont already have an account at top cashback, you can sign up through my referral to get an extra £5 added to you account once you make £10 cashback
Lottoland - Cashback £15
Add £11 and play 11 separate £1 hands, following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Betfair Casino - Cashback £70
Note this is not the poker offer
Add £50 to your account and play 50 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Quidco are offering £100 for this offer
Party Casino - Cashback £26.5
Deposit and play 30 single £1 hand son blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Tombola - Cashback £24.5
Deposit £10 and open the tombola roulette game, choose a £1 chip size and choose 5 spots, repeat this twice, withdraw any remaining balance, you will likely lose money here but the cashback will give you a profit
Coral - Cashback £46
Add £10 and play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Bingoport - Cashback £3
Sign up to bingoport to get an easy £3
Ladbrokes - Cashback £42
Add £10 to your account and play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Pokerstars - Cashback £32
Add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
STS - Cashback £21
Add £30 to your account and play 30 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
William Hill - Cashback £54
add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Megacasino - £15.75
Add £25 - Play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
LottoGo - Cashback £3.18
Buy a euromillions ticket
Slingo - Cashback £24.75
Add £10 play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
PaddyPower Games - Cashback £20
Add £10 play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
The Football Pools - Cashback £24.75
Sign up for the £10 a month subscription, cancel this after 30 days
Lottomart - Cashback £18
Add £10 - Play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Genting Slots - Cashback £25
Add £30 play 30 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
OhMyDosh - Cashback £40+
Referral gives an extra £1, sign up through the ref link at the top of the post to get the bonus!
Gala Bingo - Cashback £17.50
Deposit at least £5, you'll get a £10 slots bonus and 100 free spins, these carry hefty wagering requirements, Open any slot and play the minimum spin size, play until you lose all of the money in your account or complete the wagering requirements on the bonus funds. Withdraw any remaining balance.
BGO - £10 Cashback
Deposit at least £15. Play 15 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. DONT ACCEPT the welcome bonus from BGO.
Lottosocial - Cashback £4
Sign up to Lotto Social - Use your correct phone number when joining as it is the only way to login to your account. Purchase 10 lines for £1, after making a purchase go to your account page and find the list of syndicates your are in, leave the syndicates to avoid making any more payments.
Cheeky Bingo - £10 Cashback
Deposit £10 and get a £40 welcome bonus, just play bingo with all of your funds and hope to get some wins, bonus has 4x wagering requirements.

Quidco - Cashback £100+

Quidco don't offer a sign up bonus, find my ref link at the top of the post if you want to help me out!
All of the offers on quidco are much the same as topcashback, the only offer worth noting is the betfair casino offer which pays £100
Betfair - £100 cashback
Add £100 and play 100 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.

Cashbackearners - Cashback £180+

Sign up Bonus
Get a £6.5 sign up bonus, think this works with or without the ref link, links are at the top of the post!
To find these offers just search for casino on the site.
All of these offers state that you only need to make a deposit, its best to play through the deposit 1x to ensure that the cashback is paid.
LuckyMeSlots - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Spin Genie - Cashback £12.5
Add £12.5 and play 12.5 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Cashmo - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
Ice36 -Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Spinhill Casino - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Galacasino - Cashback £30
add £30 and play 30 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Casino765 - Cashback £12.5
Add £12.5 and play 12.5 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Casinosuperwins - Not recommended, bad site, awful support
Casino2020 - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play through £15 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
Pocketwin - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
The Sun Vegas - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
DrSlot - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
MrSpin - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
PrimeCasino - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
ConquestAdor - Cashback £10
Add £10 play 10 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
MFortune - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
Thanks for reading, hope this of use to some people, happy earning!

I absolutely love the Fable games, all three of them. I've been powering through them on GamePass and started Fable 3 again this weekend. Now I've spent far more time than I care to admit on the chicken races once they were unlocked.
But something about them has bugged me. At least twice now, the game straight up lied to me. I have about 700,000. So I use that, and I bet the maximum 10,000 on every chicken (This ensures my maximum loss is only 28,000, rather than 30,000 if I were only betting Colonel, Timmy, and Joe). But that's neither here nor there. There were a handful of times where I thought Avenger was wrongfully declared the winner in close races. But that's not what has been irking me.
On two very distinct and separate occasions, both times, in my opinion, Joe was the clear winner of the race, closely contested by Mr. Cluckles only for the game to seemingly randomly declare Avenger the winner, even though Avenger wasn't even in contention. Obviously this has frustrated me because of the 190,000 payout should Joe have won.
Anywhos, I was just wondering if anyone else has noticed or experienced anything similar? Either way, I still love the games and am ecstatic for the new addition...I was leaning PS5 with the next gen, but it's Fable that always brings me back to Xbox.

tl;dr, The Keeper promotes a playstyle that's too unreliable, RNG-based, and gimmicky to be a proper challenge character.
Introduction:
After finally beating Hush + Delirium as Keeper after a negative 24 win streak, I realized to myself that it wasn't fun. My run was saved a lucky combination of Fanny Pack, Head of the Keeper, Swallowed Penny, and Piggy Bank, and despite the fact my Keeper gets a penny and I get a bent penny in my item pools, I didn't feel satisfied nor felt like I had any real fun playing as the Keeper, I was just taking out my frustrations on the monsters when I finally got a good run. It then hit me like an out-of-control the truck, the Keeper is flawed, like really flawed. Compared to Edmund's other games, the difficulty there is also paired with a high amount of fun, momentary highs, and excitement to boot, and usually it comes from learning the game and mastering the challenges thrown. Even when looking at other challenges like The Lost, it still brings a similar amount of fun and adrenaline sided with its challenge or never taking a hit (or 2 with holy mantle). Despite of this, the Keeper exists. In this little text post/essay, I will discuss every aspect of the Keeper there is, and possibly ways to fix it. I may say hopeful of a challenge character being buffed, but Bethany is getting a rework that makes her more interesting to play and the Lost got some buffs when Afterbirth came out, so I hope my heart will be in the right place.
Comparison to the Lost + Benefits:
The Lost and Keeper both fall in the category of challenge characters, where they have incredible and detrimental downsides that change how you play the game, similar of a "Can you beat X without doing Y run" from VGMyths. Binding of Isaac doesn't really have a way to "master" it, just become an expert in it because of the procedural generated layout of the floors + room, so the game doesn't really expect the impossible out of you, and because of this, these two characters do have upsides.
For the anyone unfamiliar with the Lost, their stats are:

Has one coin and no bomb.
Has the D4, Flight, Spectral Tears, and an unlock-able Holy Mantle.
Whenever the Lost is not taking damage, their health is always set to half a soul heart and is invisible on the hud, effectively making him a no hit run character.

And for the Keeper, their stats are:

-0.15 Speed, More damage, more tear delay, -2 Luck.
+1 unlock-able coin, 1 unlock-able Store Key.
Triple shot and an unlock-able Wooden Nickel.
All heart drops and forced hearts are converted to flies, certain hearts giving more flies.
Their health is replaced with Coin Health and the Keeper cannot have more than 2 coins or any other kind of health. Coin Health always takes 1 full heart of damage no matter what, meaning 2 hits and he's out. Coin Health can be replenished by substituting any coin, and temporary versions of the heart are permanent. They are treated as Red Hearts by most other items and ingame mechanics.

Because the Lost has no health, this means that he doesn't get the common health upgrades in the game (especially those in boss item pools), but luckily get devil deals for free, effectively forcing him the route of taking Devil Deals, sometimes at a better payout of a pair of 2 heart deals vs. not having 1 health upgrade, compared to normal characters who can't frequently take the amount of deals at that cost with the boss item. The Keeper however doesn't get such luxury, he can usually only take a single 1 heart deal, and usually only if he can ever get to a devil deal since he cannot hold soul hearts, and if the boss item is an HP up, otherwise he'll be stuck at death's door 1 health. What that accumulates to is that if you want a devil deal as the Keeper, you'll need to play perfectly (no hit whatsoever), while having weaker stats, no flight or spectral tears, and you'll have to be lucky to get an HP up from the boss pool or sometimes the treasure pool. It's legitimately insane, and I cannot even believe that Edmund was able to beat Delirium without getting insanely lucky as me.
Speed:
In a bullet hell game like BOI, speed is everything. Remembering enemy patterns, avoiding hazards, going from room to room, even speed running to reach boss rush or the Hush, its one of the 3 main traits every RPG focuses on alongside offence and defence. The Keeper has -0.15 speed, and alongside a bad starting DPS thats worse than the default triple shot, you need to be lucky and hope you get a good speed upgrade to help you with everything in this game. The worst part is that he doesn't have flight, so he will waste more time than usual avoiding floor hazards and manoeuvring around pits, but he's still getting a vanity noose.
Coin Health + Decay mechanic:
Keeper's Coin Health is the name of the game, and that game is heavily weighted on luck. The main problem with coin health as a whole is the limitation of the 2 hearts + you cannot have any other type of hearts, making you susceptible to lack of devil deals. It was already discussed that the Keeper can't take devil deals often because he has health that isn't shielded and he only can really take devil deals if he can supplement with an HP up, but what's worse is the bad implementation of the Decay mechanic (where the pickup hearts are converted into flies). Let's say the Keeper picks up and HP upgrade while at his max 2 coin heart limit, how many flies would he get? Would he get 10 since 1 eternal heart is 5 flies and an HP up is essentially 2 eternal hearts? Maybe it's just 3 flies because its 1 heart? Nope, nada, not a single flying fuck. While most players exchange their HP up for an item in the devil deal, and the Lost doesn't even get an HP up but can take free devil deals, the Keeper cant utilize the coin health or the decay mechanic properly unless you get lucky. Also while this seems petty, the amount of flies from each heart seems cheap. 6 flies from a golden heart, if I was able to get a golden heart that'd be a godsend for the Keeper, but here its literally 2 uses of Guppy's head.
Starting Items:
The last thing I can talk about are the Keeper's unlock-able starting items; his wooden nickel and his store key. The wooden nickel is basically a 1 room charge 50/50 of dropping any coin, usually a penny. The wooden nickel is practically the only way you're able to play as the Keeper, and it's insane to think that this has to be unlocked by beating Isaac first as him. What's worse is that because its a 50/50 (luckily unaffected by the luck stat and the Keeper's -2 luck) it usually allows you to take an expected value of 0.5 hits a room, compared to the Lost who is guaranteed to take up to 1 hit a room with his holy mantle. This also means curse rooms are a no-go unless you have enough bombs to go in or have some contingency plan for your black carpet visit. The store key isn't as great either, and for a few reasons. If you take a look at the item pools in BOI, you'll notice two types of item themes they'll follow, gameplay, or cosmetic. For example curse room item pools are associated with curse or evil-like items, angel rooms focus on defensive and holy items, golden chests have items that are part of the head, are a head, or bags, and devil beggar items focus on drugs and evil items. The shop however focuses on items that support builds rather than make them (and also has items that are common to find in the real world), similar to the game-play affect of trinkets, with very few combative items. If you played TF2, Overwatch, or really most MMOs or DOTAs, you'll know that stacking nothing but supports with no defence or offensive capabilities is not going to result in victory. While the Keeper's wooden nickel usually can give out a nickel or a dime, and typically he is able to get more many than most other characters early game, whats the point if he can't buy good items?
Conclusion + My balance suggestions:
To summarize what I said, the Keeper has shit manoeuvrability, shit offence and ways to get offence, shit defence and ways to get defence, shit starting items, all of which can only be remedied by being lucky most of the time. Out of all of the challenges Edmund has thrown in his career (Super Meat Boy, End is Nigh, DLC-less Lost, Delirium), this is by far the worst due to how only luck is able to save this character unless you are an absolute god at this game, which is near impossible due to the randomized floor layouts, items you get, rooms, and sometimes, the enemies themselves. When you watch a streamer or youtuber play BOI, you'll see them play one of the characters for fun, like Judas for glass cannon strats, Azazel for a good early run, ??? or the Lost for a game constantly on the edge, but I bet that you have NEVER seen someone play the Keeper for legitmate fun and not for their completion marks. So what would I do in order to remedy this salted lemon in the potato-peeled wound? Well I have quite a bit of buffs and nerfs I would apply if I had access to Isaac's game, whilst still making him a relatively tough challenge character.

Buff (the biggest and most important one): Keeper can have a maximum of 3 coin hearts (but still starts with 2) by default, allowing him to take 2 heart devil deals without instant death, and putting him on the edge with 1 coin heart and a good item.
Buff: The Keeper's vanity noose (coming in Repentance) will fully form and give him flight upon entering the Womb (or possibly cathe/shoel), allowing for a bit more movement options if he has been lacking them before the run.
Buff: Double the amount of flies from all decaying hearts. Double red hearts become the equivalent of 2 red heart of flies (4 normally, 8 with double flies). Collecting an HP up while at the maximum amount of hearts gives the equivalent of 2 eternal hearts of flies (10 normally, 20 with double flies).
Buff: Empty Vessel works on the Keeper if they have just 1 coin heart.
Buff: The Wafer and Zodiac's Cancer will increase the maximum amount of coin hearts by 1 and give an HP up.
Fix: Fix Maggy's faith not giving any eternal hearts, jesus christ. I WANT MY FLIES.
Change: The decay mechanic only works when the Keeper touches the heart to convert into the flies, preventing him from auto-collecting all the flies in the room. When the Keeper touches a heart, it contributes to items that activate on heart pickup such as immaculate conception, maggy's bow, and allows dark bum or the jar to pick them up, or for a D20 affect to occur on them if needed.
Change: Wooden Nickel instead of having a 50/50 of giving a coin, instead gives a coin every second use of it, allowing for more calculated plays, especially when using things that sacrifice health like curse rooms or devil beggars.
Change: The Keeper can only have a maximum of 6 coin hearts at a time, unable to go past that from effects such as Greed's Gullet (and the suggested Wafer + Cancer hp extension buff idea)
Nerf: Swallowed Penny only has a 33% of activating on the Keeper. Orange champions still take coins without dropping them on the floor.
Nerf: All sources of healing are disabled, and are instead replaced with 1-3 flies each time it would've occured, such as Pyromaniac, Placenta, Charm of the Vampire, and Leech.

Really if only one of these suggestions were to be implemented, I'd want it to be the maximum of 3 coin hearts so 2 heart devil deals are an option and so it isn't immensely brutal to be on the edge because of the 50/50 wooden nickel, and maybe the change in the decay mechanic, but I feel I'm getting too hopeful for a character designed to be challenging getting buffed, despite that challenge coming from all the wrong reasons. Really I'd like to hear what you all think about the Keeper and ways he could buffed (either as something for Repentance or as an idea for a workshop mod), and I hope you enjoyed my analysis on the Keeper, and why he flat out sucks to play. All I can hope is that the Keeper, while still being a difficult challenge character, can atleast be fun to play as sometime.

So I’ve got a futures bet on MyBookie of Pacers and Blazers to play each other in the finals and it’s $90 to win $350k. Of course the chances are low but after thinking about it I feel like even if the stars aligned and it did hit they’d find a way out of paying me. Lot of books have rumors of being scams. Anyone have any confirmed large payouts to vouch for?

Hello I'm planning on getting ASPCA insurance for my new bernese puppy I pick up in several weeks. I am trying to choose between the $7000 and $10000 maximum payout options. $7000 seems like plenty but then again, I have no real concept of how much a puppy could end up costing yearly. Any advice on if $7000 is a good bet or if $10000 is worth it?

Sleeping Dogs: Poker Mahjong guide

Hello! I've not seen any advice on how to win at Poker Mahjong in Sleeping Dogs, so here's a guide for anyone who might be struggling with it.
How do I access Poker Mahjong?
You can play Poker Mahjong at either of the two gambling dens located offshore to the north and south of the map. These locations are reachable by boat after completing the main story mission 'Bride to Be'.
What are the rules of the game?
Poker Mahjong in Sleeping Dogs is basically a form of video poker (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_poker), but played with a deck of mahjong tiles. The tiles are all of the same suit and are numbered from 1 to 6.
You play against one computer opponent (the house, or dealer). I'll refer to them as your 'opponent' for consistency.

You first choose how much to bet on the round, from 500 Hong Kong dollars up to 5000.
Both players are dealt five mahjong tiles. Tiles are numbered from 1 to 6. These tiles are called your 'hand'.
Your opponent always plays first. He chooses to discard any number of tiles from his hand and pushes them in front of the tiles he plans to keep - you can see from the table which ones will be discarded.
The above happens before you get to do anything. Then it's your first turn. You can choose to discard any of the tiles from your hand.
New tiles are drawn from the deck to replace all the tiles that were discarded.
There is a second turn of discarding and drawing new tiles.
Once those new tiles are added to your hand, both players' hands are evaluated, and the player with the better hand wins the round.

If you win the round, you receive winnings based on the payout table.
If you lose the round, you lose your original bet.
If the hand is tied, you neither win money nor lose your original bet.

What are the winning hands?
The table below shows the ranks of each hand from lowest to highest, along with the payout.

HAND	PAYOUT
High card	1:1
Pair	1:1
Two Pair	1:1
Three of a Kind	2:1
Straight	2:1
Full House	3:1
Four of a Kind	4:1
Five of a Kind	5:1

Updated: Payouts are implemented oddly in the game. A payout of 1:1 means that you win an amount equal to your original bet. The best hand, Five of a Kind, pays out 5:1 which means that you can win $25000 on a bet of $5000. You don’t actually get your original bet back, though. So, for hands that give 1:1 payouts, actually you only get back your bet, you don’t earn any money for winning.
How does the game decide who wins each round?
During the evaluation of both players' hands, each component of your hand is compared against the equivalent in the other player's hand, in order of importance.

For example, if you have a Full House, say 6's full of 2's (6,6,6,2,2) and your opponent has a Full House of 6's full of 3's (6,6,6,3,3), the sets of three are compared, then the pairs. (In this example, the opponent wins with a pair of 3's beating your pair of 2's.)
If you both have Two Pair, the higher pairs are compared, then the lower pairs.
If you both have Straight, the higher Straight (2,3,4,5,6) beats the lower Straight (1,2,3,4,5).

Tiles that aren't part of a winning hand aren't compared - for example, if you both have Four of a Kind 6's (6,6,6,6), the fifth tile is ignored, resulting in a tie.
I'll use 'rank' to refer to the payout table and 'strength' to refer to the numbers on the tiles that make up the hand.

A higher-ranked hand beats a lower-ranked hand.
If the hands are of the same rank, a higher-strength hand beats a lower-strength hand.
It's a tie if the hands have the same rank and the specific tiles that make up the winning combination have the same strength.

The comparing of hands by strength (tile value) isn't stated clearly in the game, so it's easy to not notice this and assume that you have to outright beat your opponent's hand in rank. It also means that (if you ignore the fact you always play second) your opponent has the same chance to draw winning hands as you do. This means in the long term, you would expect to win 50% of the rounds, and with the high payouts on good hands, you can expect to win money over time rather than losing it (unlike most casino games based on chance).
Can I win Poker Mahjong consistently?
Yes! Over time, you can beat the computer player consistently. You can make about $100k per (real-world) hour of play, depending on how lucky you get. (It would be more if the controls and animations were faster.)
There's several reasons for this:

You can expect to win 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time, on average, before taking into account how well you and your opponent play. The payout structure means your winnings on good hands will tend to exceed your losses.
You get to play second, so you can respond to your opponent's final move before the hands are evaluated. This gives you a slight edge in cases where your opponent decided to stick with a 'safe' hand instead of trying to improve his hand.
Your opponent tends to overvalue low-strength tiles and undervalue high-strength tiles. These bad decisions can be exploited.
Your opponent tends to hold on to Straight or Full House hands as long as your hand can't beat them. This means you can sometimes win by getting a stronger Full House or Four of a Kind just before the end of the round.

Obviously some luck is involved, so sometimes you'll have a run where your opponent keeps getting unbeatable hands, or vice versa.
How much should I bet?
You should always bet the maximum amount ($5000). However, if you come to the table with less than $100,000 and you're unlucky during your session, you might run out of cash before your luck turns around.
(Poker Mahjong isn't the fastest way to earn money in Sleeping Dogs. If you want to make money fast, you can bet up to $100,000 a time on the cockfighting in Kennedy Town docks. You'll win $100,000 (and get your bet back) if you picked the winning bird.)
What's the general strategy?
You get to play after your opponent, so the general approach is to look at what your opponent is discarding, and then translate that information into a strategy for your own hand. Ideally, you want to get a Full House or better. Low Pairs/Two Pairs and Straights are usually not worth keeping. Also, the payouts below Full House are not worth aiming for even if you do beat your opponent with a low hand.
Now let's look at some scenarios in rough order of frequency.
1. Opponent has a low pair (1,1 to 3,3) and is discarding all other tiles.
You should aim to get Three of a Kind, Full House or Four of a Kind.
You can do this by building on a Pair of your own (if you already have one starting out), or, if you have a high tile (5 or 6 - if you have both, just keep the 6), you can discard all other tiles and hope for a 5 or 6 to appear in the draw. It'll depend on whether you already have a Pair that would beat your opponent's Pair. If your Pair is the same strength or weaker, discard it.
2. Opponent has Two Pair or you both have Two Pair.
There is a good chance that your opponent will improve their hand to Three of a Kind or Full House, so you need to aim for the same. If you have Two Pair yourself, the best way to do this is usually to keep your high Pair and discard the other three tiles. Then you can hope to build a strong Three of a Kind or better.
It's tempting to just discard the one tile that isn't part of your Two Pair, but then you lock yourself out of the possibility of Four of a Kind (which you need if your opponent gets a Full House) and you may end up matching your lower pair, giving you a weak Full House. Also, you're actually less likely to get a Three of a Kind with this play, which would be enough to win if your opponent fails to improve their hand.
The maths for the above play is estimated as follows. Assume each tile has an independent probability of being drawn of 1/6, and your Two Pair is 6,6 and 5,5. Then if you discard the single other tile, you need a 5 or 6 to get a Full House. The chance of this happening is 2/6 = 33%. If you keep the high pair and discard the other tiles, you need a 6 in any of the three new tiles to get Three of a Kind (and 2 or more would make your hand very strong). The chance of getting at least one 6 is 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) = 42%.
3. You both have nothing, or your opponent has nothing while you have a low or mid-strength Pair.
If you have a high tile, consider discarding everything else and trying to get a good hand using the high tile - especially if your Pair is weak. Otherwise, build on your existing Pair.
4. Opponent has a Straight (1,2,3,4,5 or 2,3,4,5,6).
Straight is a weak hand and is frequently vulnerable to a Full House play. You will usually not see your opponent try to build a Straight from having four of the five tiles. It will usually happen instead at the start of the round, or randomly during the round.
Your opponent will hold on to their Straight as long as you have a weaker hand. Your play should be to build on any existing Pair or better in your hand, to aim for a Full House or Four of a Kind. Discard all tiles that don't help with this.
If you start with a Straight, don't bother keeping it. Discard everything except the high tile. Only keep a Straight if it's the last round and your Opponent has a Pair or worse going into the final draw.
5. Opponent has Three of a Kind or Full House, or better.
Most of the time you'll lose if your opponent has Four- or Five of a Kind.
You need to aim for a stronger Full House than your opponent's, if possible. If you have a 5 or 6 in your hand, keep that and discard the rest.
Or you might have a Full House, but it's weaker than your opponent's. In that case, you should discard the Pair and hope to get a Four of a Kind with your set of three.
Notes
This guide is based on a playthrough of Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition on Xbox One.
Comments and feedback welcome!

Hello investors,
So far, we have talked about the following trading plans for executing options trades. I'll quickly go over them below to ensure that everyone is on the same page. I want to be sure we are aware of the reasons why we are buying certain types of options and the mechanics of realizing profits from them.
Options Trading Part I (Which Options to Buy) - 11/16/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/jvivvt/options_trading_part_i_which_options_to_buy/
This post basically explains the concept of getting the maximum convexity on your return profile, which is a fancy way of saying getting the best returns for a unit of risk you are taking.
For instance, if you are betting a $100 on a company, you might as well do it using options because you could potentially get higher returns for a little more, if not the same, amount of risk you are taking.
You want to play a game where you will receive $300 for every $100 you bet, 3:1 payout ratio, not $100 for every $100 you bet, 1:1 payout ratio, which is the case for owning shares in a company.
Name of the game, purchase options with the best risk/reward scenarios.
(To determine the payout profile, almost all brokers offer the calculations to show what happens to the value of the option if stock price goes down by 30% or up by 30%.)
Options Trading Part II (When to Exit or Rollover Positions) - 11/28/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/k2yluoptions_trading_part_ii_when_to_exit_or_rollove
The next post explains when to close out your positions. Again, it goes off the idea of understanding your risk/reward for every position that you have and either existing your positions or rollover them based on how the situation has changed.
For example, if you purchased an OTM call option expiring in 12 months and 4 months later, you're already in-the-money with 4x your initial investment in unrealized capital gains.
At this point, your payout profile will look much worse than when you first entered the trade, meaning for every $1 upward movement in the stock price, you will gain $10 and a $1 downward movement in the stock price will decrease the value of your options by roughly $10, resulting in a 1:1 payout profile, which is almost the same as owning shares in a company as we discussed above.
Therefore, you need to answer the following question:

Are you bullish or bearish on the stock in the next 8 months (the remaining life of the option)? Will there be external market forces that could hurt the stock's performance?

If the answer is bullish, then I would say either keep the options or rollover into more OTM option.
You would keep the options if you think the stock will still appreciate in the next 8 months but the upward movement won't be anywhere explosive, so you're essentially owning shares in the company at this point.
You would rollover into more OTM options at the same expiration date when you're still feeling very bullish on the company in the next 8 months and think that the stock could rise another 30% so you want the best payout profile. This also limits your risk by cutting down the weight of this option in your overall portfolio.
Options Trading Part III (Fighting the Theta Decay) - 12/13/2020
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/kcpzpq/options_trading_part_iii_fighting_the_theta_decay/
Lastly, this post was about how theta plays a role in calculating your returns.
It basically says that shorter period options are risky considering how much more theta decay plays a role compared to the intermediate and longer period options.
Please see the summary below:
1) Invest in the best risk/reward option terms.
2) Manage your risks by either keeping your options position or rolling them over and limiting your exposure, assuming you're still bullish on the stock.
3) Be aware of the risks of theta decay when buying short-term (3-6 months) options.

Which brings me to the topic for today's post: Leveraging Margins and Long-Term Options to Amplify Returns.

I believe that the optimal strategy to invest in a company that you believe in is to buy LEAPS on the company's stock.
(LEAPS are "long-term equity anticipation securities", another fancy word for long-term options.)
Why? Because it has the three key characteristics we are looking for:
1) Best risk/reward option terms.
2) Easier to manage risks.
3) Lower theta decay risks.

I'll go into the details of why LEAPS are suitable for our purposes.
1) Best risk/reward option terms.
The reason why LEAPS offer the best risk/reward scenarios, in my opinion, is that it gives you two things: 1) time to play out your thesis and 2) self-discipline.

It gives you sufficient time to play out your thesis. Say you buy LEAPS on a company thinking that its next year's earnings will crush the estimates due to the amount of pricing power that the company has or the success of their international expansion plans.

On catalysts like these, you need more time for the stock to play true to the company's financial performance.
For instance, you bought Thor Industries, a recreational vehicle manufacturer, thinking that people will go for outdoor camping more due to COVID. What if Trump came out and said that the US will raise tariffs on aluminum, a key component of RVs? This will temporarily depress the stock price and if you had short-term options, you will likely realize losses.
If you had bought 2-year option, however, the stock would be given enough time to recover and actually rise above your entry point given that the tariffs news fades away and Thor Industries reports earnings that crushes the consensus estimates.
The key aspect to remember is the leverage involved in an option.
Leverage is when you put $100 to bet on a company but you actually get $1000 exposure, meaning you get 10x the exposure.
When you buy an option, you pay $1k in options premium to buy 1 call option contract on NIO to get $2800 of stock exposure ($56 stock price *100 shares * 50% delta) because each options contract is in units of 100 shares of the underlying stock.
(Delta is the sensitivity of the option price movement given $1 change in the underlying stock price. If Delta is 50% and the stock increases $1, your option price will increase by 50%.)
The point I wanted to make is that options in general provide you a leverage, which amplifies your return.
Therefore, for the amount of risk you are taking (the hefty premium paid for longer-dated options) against the reward you are receiving (the stock appreciation amplified by leverage), LEAPS offer good opportunities.
2) LEAPS also offer self-discipline.
By incentivizing you to hold on to your LEAPS when the market panics and the stock sells off, it allows you to be more disciplined, which is a key factor in a successful investing as I alluded to here.
https://www.reddit.com/Midasinvestors/comments/kpfx3h/investing_philosophy_part_iii_can_you_actually/
And of course, people will be more incentivized to hold onto their options to benefit from long-term capital gains tax.
2) Easier to manage risks.
LEAPS are easier to manage risks because you know the amount of money you're risking to lose and you know what your returns will look like in different scenarios because it's a relatively same payout profile as owning shares but magnified due to leverage.
More importantly, it's easier to keep track of their performances as we have less complex trades, compared to say a box spread trade that requires more complex strategy.
3) Lower theta decay risks.
Longer options have lower impact from the theta decay. For instance, a 2-year option price will decline by only 10% if the stock price stays the same after 5 months, whereas an 8-month option price will decline by 30-40% if the stock price stays the same after 5 months.
I also sell naked put options on a short-term basis to benefit from the theta decay but since it limits the upside potential, I tend to express my view on a company through LEAPS.
The situations where I will sell naked put options is when I think the stock is overvalued and want a chance to buy the shares at a lower price but still want to collect some income if the stock price appreciates in the short-term.
For instance, a 4-week $350 OTM put option on Costco was trading at $4 premium and the underlying stock closed at $361 on 1/15/2021.
If I thought COST was overvalued, I would want to sell this put option and collect $4 premium. If the stock declines to $345, I am more than happy to cover my put options by buying shares at $350, a price lower than $361 on 1/15/2021.
Sell puts at the lowest price when you want to buy a stock. When price goes down, you can purchase the stock. This is a bullish view.
And since I firmly believe that Costco won't fall by 20-30% given the low volatility of the stock, I'm also not worried about losing lots of money when the stock goes down.
Alternatively, sell call option at exercise price where you think the stock will max out at. This is when you already own the stock and you want to cash out at a certain price point.
This is all to say that theta decay risks are lower for LEAPS and if you want a step ahead, you could potentially sell put options in the short-term to collect income. And btw, this is also a strategy that Warren Buffett uses all the time.

To summarize, LEAPS offer a way to both limit our risks and amplify our returns, while also gaining the tax advantage.
I wanted to also mention using margins in this post since we discussed the concept of leverage.
I am all in favor of using margins and if managed properly, it can be a great way to gain advantage as an individual investor.
Every single hedge fund and private equity uses some type of leverage, whether in the form of futures, margins, or options, to magnify their returns.
If you were receiving 10% return on a very diversified, safe portfolio in a year, I believe margins will offer a way to magnify that return while limiting risks.
Say $100k is invested across 50 very safe, low volatility stocks and you borrow $100k on margin to invest $200k total. What are the chances of your entire portfolio going down by 50%? Aka $100k and losing all your money?
Not to encourage you to take so much risk but adding margins while properly managing risks is a great way to enhance your performance.
For those interested being put on the email distribution list, please fill out this form to make it easier to send the models of companies or attachments.
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScZ6J9pFUq3At2yncsQ_L4XalvVEVa-BW2nbHR7-bJ9BRKplA/viewform?vc=0&c=0&w=1&flr=0&gxids=7628&fbzx=4409293954243517011

Thanks for reading everyone and as always, please feel free to suggest any topic you want to discuss!
Cheers.

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Let's say I need to bet £100 on a roulette board. There's 36 numbers plus 0 and the payout on any straight up bet is 35-1.
What would be the best way to bet £100, with the lowest level of liability? I'm not interested in winning, merely keeping the maximum of that original £100. I essentially want to bet £100 and then walk away with £100.
(You can probably guess there's a promotion I'm wanting to be eligible for and I'm wondering if I can get it at almost no actual risk.)

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A slight departure from the usual source of Sports Bet information that you'll find here, I thought of compiling some figures to show the biggest lottery winners in history. Unlike lottery winners, us sport betting fans have a much higher chance of success - you're more likely to get hit by lightning than to win any of these lottery payouts, but it's still fun to dream about what you might do with the winnings!
The biggest lottery winner in America won an insane $1.537 billion jackpot back in 2019 on a Mega Millions lottery draw. The biggest ever jackpot through the Powerball game, which ended up being shared between 3 ticket holders was very close at $1.537 billion. One further ticket has broken the billion dollar mark in winnings at a staggering $1.05 billion. There have been a further 48 lottery drawings that have smashed the 300+ million dollar mark. Unlike some other locations in the world, these amounts are taxed afterwards but the winners will certainly still be in the super rich club.
Taking a look at Europe, there have been some huge wins all over - the largest has been a 200 million Euro ticket in France during December 2020 as part of the Euromillions lottery. Another four winners have collected 190 million Euro prizes in the last ten years. Eurojackpot is another lottery that has a maximum 90 million Euro payout and it has paid out 12 times so far. Most European countries also have local lotteries that have created - 209 million was won through Italy's SuperEnalotto in August 2019.
Finally we take a look at the Spanish Christmas Lottery, called "Sorteo Extraodinario de Navidad", which is widely considered to be the biggest lottery game in the world. If we travel back to 2012, the first prize was €730 million which exchanged to $941.8 million at the time). It has progressively gotten ridiculously higher through the years, in 2016 the total prize pool was €2.31 billion ($2.414 billion) and in 2020 it reached a mind blowing €2.38 billion which was equivalent to $2.897 billion.

What is the maximum payout on bet365? 🇮🇳 New and Updated 2021

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Casino time!!!I made a roulette game!! Come place a bet and win 5 times your bet!!! Maximum bet 99k so the payout is faster!! Rules: -I give you a flower -you make your bet and place the flower on the image you think the spinning wheel will land -you spin the wheel and if you win you get paid 5 time

PSA: Inside Track Minimum Bet/Maximum Payout Glitch is Paying Out! Always bet on Horse 1. I’m now at 1.2M chips 30 minutes after this pic.

TIL of Fred Craggs, who placed a 50p accumulator bet on eight different horses, and won £1.4 million. However, he only received £1 million, his betting shop's maximum payout.

Going through pictures, I found this from my last trip to Vegas. I forget the payout table, but I'm sure (had I bet the maximum amount) it would have paid off in the thousands.

Get The Maximum Payout For Your NCAA Bowl Bets By Checking The Odds Comparison Table

Discussion re Tether & NYAG deadline 19th Feb

Gamestop: Power to the Market Players (Part 2)

0 Days to Live

Let’s Imagine a Scenario Here

Can it be continued forever, though?

Bubble, growth or dividends?

Options Trading Part IV (Leveraging Margins and Long-Term Options to Amplify Returns)

Options Trading Part IV (Leveraging Margins and Long-Term Options to Amplify Returns)

Almost a year long wait

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Chicken Races Rigged! Just a venting frustration.

The Keeper as a whole is a flawed, broken, and RNG-heavy challenge compared to everything else. (Essay/Discussion + Mini-Rant)

Largest confirmed payout on your respective books

Choosing insurance maximum

Sleeping Dogs Poker Mahjong Guide

Sleeping Dogs: Poker Mahjong guide

Options Trading Part IV (Leveraging Margins and Long-Term Options to Amplify Returns) - 1/17/2021

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