My mom was the sort of person to look like a wallflower until you got close and then spout out facts about her favourite animal. It was an emperor penguin. She said their journey for love and parenthood was the hardest and most connecting with her.
I’m told all the usual things about her; she had a smile that could light up a room, her laugh cut through the malaise of an awkward party, her stride was confident and her form was elegant. From the day I could understand what it was to be remembered, she was painted to me as a true goddess.
After all, aren’t all moms supposed to be that to their children growing up?
Mom died when I was 4. Aggressive cancer riddled her body with tumours, stole her stride, her smile, her laugh. Everything in just 18 short months.
I didn’t see her for much of it. But if I did, I obviously didn’t remember. I heard somewhere we don’t start forming memories until we’re around 2 years old and implicit memories - those unconscious memories that stick with us automatically - aren’t even until we’re 7.
So essentially my mother was already dead for 3 years before I could even unconsciously think of the word “Mom” and go to her face. A face that was stolen from me. A face that I’ll never see.
I’m giving you this background information now because it’s vital that you understand my mom before we get into the thick of it.
I can’t sit here and tell you I loved my mom unconditionally. I didn’t know her. Dad was never in the picture, so Grandparents were where I was shipped off to. Good people, kind people. They raised me on stories of my Mom and made sure to do the one thing she’d requested when her sickness finally got her:
”Show Nick the milestone tapes.”
For those unaware; a milestone tape is something where a loved one, usually a parent, records a loving video to congratulate their kin on a moment they’re missing out on. First day of school, marriage… you get the picture.
I remember being 5 years old, I’d not long tripped on the stairs after miscalculating my steps and smashed my front tooth on the top step, sending my first baby tooth flying. Thankfully, the pain was short-lived in my mind, I was mere days from my birthday and a surprise trip to Disneyland was coming up. In the middle of packing, I was sat down in front of the TV with my Grandpa Mihail and him putting in these pristine discs, a gaudy logo flashing up on the screen still burned into my retinas to this day:
“Gone, but not deleted: A video message from Leanora Stankowski.”
The image would flicker for just a moment, always just a moment each time, then she’d appear.
A young woman sat in a black leather armchair with a small table to her side and patterned wallpaper behind her. She was in her late 20s with her raven black hair tied in a messy bun, strands curled and dangling down her porcelain face, a beauty mark sitting just beneath her right eye, the pair of them shining like emeralds that caught the first ray of sunshine, black lipstick gave way to shimmering teeth and a smile that made even an oblivious little me feel… lost.
“Hi pumpkin, it’s mommy! I hope my little prince is watching the throne while i’m away… how can you be nearly six years old and already losing your baby teeth? You’re growing up too fast, little man!”
She puffed out her cheeks as she feigned a frown before giggling. My heart sank in my chest, I knew something wasn’t right even then. Her tone was playful, buoyant and full of joy, like she’d never missed a moment of my life.
“Make sure you put your tooth under your pillow tonight, Deda Mihail will make sure the tooth fairy comes and nothing else!” She raised a single finger with a wink, posing for a moment before her face fell, her posture sank and she fell back into the armchair a tad, growing smaller as she coughed. After a moment, she cleared her throat with a quiet dignity and made sure the hand she coughed into went out of shot as she fixated on the camera with a weak smile.
“Mommy loves you, my little crown prince. Close your eyes and breathe with me…”
I looked at my Grandfather and with tears streaming down his face and a bite on his lip; he put a hand on my shoulder and nodded. I did as I was told and took a long breath in, the air cold and filling my lungs, intoxicating me as I heard her words. The same words i’d come to hear at the end of every video she recorded:
“I’ll always be with you.”
-
And so it went. For every milestone I undertook, there was an accompanying video. When I graduated middle school, when I rode my first bike… even when I broke my first bone, she had a video ready.
I was around 11, when biking home from school, I collided with a speeding driver. The bastard didn’t even stop as my small body careened over his windscreen, rolled over the hood and smashed into the concrete, tearing my right arm to pieces.
Passers-by said it was a freak accident; that the car just appeared out of nowhere and then vanished. But hell, what do hit & run drivers do? Speed, speed, speed.
Medicated up to my eyes and sitting up in hospital, Grandpa handed me a mini-dvd player and the familiar face shot up. I could never tell you in those earlier videos if these were done back to back or months apart, but Mom still looked radiant… albeit with more coughing in each iteration.
“Hi pumpkin, it’s mommy! Though, i’m sure by now you’re probably cringing at the mere mention of me referring to myself that way… oh god, do people still say cringe? It’s hard to know what the world you’re in is like anymore, but moms are never supposed to be cool, are they?” She chuckled, a faraway look in her eye as the pit of my stomach expanded.
“No…” I thought, tears in my eyes, gripping the sheets with my good hand. “I WANT you to say those things. I WANT you to embarrass me…”
“Well, if you’re watching this, then you’ve broken your first bone… I hope it’s a bit later in life and not when you’re so upset you can’t even hear me. But sweetie, this is an important life lesson that I wanted to be there for; pain happens. It’s a part of our world, and everyone in it must experience it. Sometimes it’s physical, like now when your body hurts so much that you wanna yell and cry out. Sometimes it’s emotional, which you get when someone upsets you, hurts your feelings… something you might also feel from seeing my face right now, which I’m sorry for.” She trailed off, that weak smile plastered across her face like the greatest lie ever told. She took a breath, and I heard the quivers in her voice. Both from sadness and from sickness. “BUT, you are my little crown prince, and while you’re watching the throne, I know you’ll do great things and overcome ANYTHING that stands in your way. You know why?”
“Why…” I breathed, my body radiating with hot pain but my heart aching. I leaned in as she leaned in, like sharing a secret only we would ever know.
“Because you’re my son and my love for you will push you to do anything.” She whispered, my face involuntarily growing into a smile without even realising.
“Just don’t look at the wall behind me.”
My eyes were fixed on hers, a small sliver of the background visible behind her ear. As my eyes slowly broke from her gaze and travelled over, she spoke again.
“DON’T.” A frantic whisper escaped her lips. My eyes snapped back as a pale shade shifted out of sight.
Blinking once, I saw she was sitting back in the chair, talking as if nothing had happened. Had I dozed off? I was on high pain medication; it wasn’t impossible…
“I’m running out of time, these are only supposed to be short, so i’ll finish up here. “Mommy loves you, my little crown prince! Close your eyes and breathe with me…”
Again, I did as instructed and heard a distinct creaking sound from the speakers, undoubtedly her settling into her chair.
“I’ll always be with you.”
-
So the years went, fewer milestone videos popped up. Some of them were simply mundane or not that noteworthy. Not why we’re here. But the usual events; first day as a freshman, last day as a senior, prom night and even an embarrassing one wherein a 17-year-old me had the most uncomfortable 15 minutes of being explained dating etiquette and safe sex by my long-gone mother.
By the time I’d reached 21, only four tapes remained. Grandpa Mihail had passed and Grandma Suza was getting on, so they were given to me with the obvious instruction to not watch them until the time was right.
And this is the part where things take a turn.
A bad breakup, bad life choices, even worse friendship choices with substances readily available, a lifetime of insecurities stemming from no parental figures (all the love in the world to my grandparents, but it’s not the same) and a series of videos from your long-dead mom are enough to fuck anyone up.
So, I grabbed a bottle, some pills and put the next video in, planning to binge them before I took my leave. I mean, fuck it, what’s the harm if I’m ending it all, right?
The video flickered and cast a long shadow across my dismal apartment before the visage of my mom came into focus.
It’d been a couple of years since the last video and in my emotionally unstable, drunken state… I was not prepared for what I saw.
Emaciated, sunken eyes and a slack jaw, her tongue hanging out and drooping to the bottom of her chin, thick pungent saliva with her concave chest heaving under the weight of the oxygen machine wrapped around her face. A looming shadow with two bright blue orbs for eyes and jagged pillars for teeth, wrapping its arms around her.
It locked eyes with me and cocked its head to the side.
“NEW.” It croaked, my skin bubbling with fear and chilling my blood, I had never felt a terror like it.
It felt like it knew me and saw into me.
I recoiled and in my cocktail of fear and horror, retched up everything I’d downed not 10 minutes earlier. A torrid mixture of bile, acid, pills and booze spread over my carpet as tears ran down my face. My stomach ached and every cell in my body screamed at me in protest. The thoughts swirling in my thick skull were that of disappointment, disgust and repulsiveness. I felt weak, alone and broken as I collapsed onto the floor in the fetal position, sobbing.
“Sweetie, it’s Mom.”
Through blurred eyes and a haze of pain, I looked at the TV half expecting some emaciated creature to lurch through, but there was my mom. She looked tired, her hair now matted to her head and exhaustion racking her bones, but beauty radiating through her as she held her hands in her lap and leaned forward, smiling.
“If you’re watching this… then things are bad. I don’t know how bad, but I can guess. Grandpa wouldn’t have let you watch this if you’d gotten your heart broken or were at that age where emotions are as high as a kite and just as volatile… so I can assume that, much like me, you’re in a bad place…” She coughed and I felt the need to sit up and give her my full attention, this woman no more than 6 years my senior frozen in time still finding ways to command my attention with her every word.
It was like I was 5 again.
“Sweetie, I know I can’t talk to you like a child anymore, so I won’t. Honestly, I’d been so excited to see you grow up, go through that phase where we bicker and argue over small things before finally settling in the longest and most beautiful phase of our family dynamic…” I watched her lips quiver and eyes glaze over, my own mirroring as she shakily concluded “The one where we’re best friends who always look out for each other.”
That broke me. Every emotion I’d trained myself to hide away when kids started asking questions I couldn’t answer, situations I’d wanted my mom in, moments I felt alone… I let it out in one volatile evening of self healing, the words on that tape echoing in my head long after it stopped playing.
“The road ahead will be tough without me. It was always going to be. But, you’re the crown prince and you’ll eventually have that throne, survey your kingdom and know you can do ANYTHING and conquer ANYTHING… it’s getting closer now, but we still have some time left. So don’t let whatever is going on beat you, nor the thing after that. The Penguins didn’t, did they? I’m sure Grandpa told you, but they’re my favourite… those little birds share the burden of parenthood, walk over 100 miles and nearly starve to cultivate new life… I’d do all of that and more for you, honey. Because…”
She closed her eyes, and I did too, without prompting, we said it together;
“I’ll always be with you.”
-
It took time to get better. All things do. I would spend so many nights in withdrawal with the shakes, vomit, and staring up at a horrific beast looming over my bed. Like the thing on the tv but foggier, it’d imitate my movements and try to get closer. With every step, its eyes would glow just a bit brighter, everything else remaining shrouded in darkness, even if light passed through my curtains.
I don’t know how I made it through that time of my life.
One night, as it made its way to the foot of my bed, I closed my eyes and breathed on instinct, reciting my mother’s mantra. I suppose in moments of crisis; we turn to our most personal coping mechanisms and I wasn’t about to go back to the bottle. When I finished, it was gone.
Over the years, I completed my program, got clean and went through therapy to cope with the grief. When I hit 26, I met the 2nd most important woman in my life; Natalie. She knew what it was like to go through pain, to go through suffering alone. To play with the wrong demons.
We fell in love; we got engaged and eventually married. As she had been countless times before, mom was there to congratulate us.
Natalie had seen some tapes, but this was her first one that in its own way was directed to her. Mom was nearing the end by this point, her thin frame barely clinging to her always beautiful dresses and her skin beginning to stretch like paper. She took great gulps of air from the oxygen tank before talking, but somehow retained that exuberance she’d always had.
“I knew you’d find someone wonderful eventually, Nick. Penguins always find their mate for life and you’d be no exception!” She giggled through strained coughs, turning her head slightly as if she could see Natalie. “I don’t know you, but I bet you’re the most beautiful woman in the world if my crown prince chose you. Well, after me of course!” Another laugh, this time accompanied by tears from the two of us. “There’s just one more to go… So, look after each other. Love well and experience everything you can. And don’t forget…”
Natalie gripped my hand with her left, a hand on her bump with the right as we closed our eyes. I could hear the scratching sound more prominently now, but I kept my eyes shut, not wanting to ruin the moment.
“I’ll always be with you.”
-
We were so excited to have a baby. Natalie had come from a big family and was eager to start expanding our own. Even though I was reluctant, I couldn’t help but share in her enthusiasm when so many late nights were spent fawning over baby names, cute outfits and lofty plans for the future on how our kid would even behave around us. Determined to be “cool parents”.
But in between all of that, my mind would cast back to those tapes of my mom, the only parent I really knew. I wanted to use them as a guidebook for my own steps. She’d been such an integral part of life, it seemed… odd to not have her in it now.
Keeping the last tape separate, I re-watched the entire set one by one, reliving those moments I couldn’t truly appreciate until my own burgeoning journey into parenthood.
But when I got to the broken bone tape, I froze.
Once again, she leaned into the camera and whispered, eyes full of fright and panic.
“Don’t look.”
I pushed pause on the video and took a moment. Surely I was just highly medicated at the time, there couldn’t *really* be anything there, right?
So why was I so reluctant to move my eyes to the right to find out?
Taking a breath, I moved the video frame by frame and watched the corner where her face didn’t cover.
That shadow. That same fucking shadow. Looming in the background, eyes burning red with fury.
“DON’T LOOK. DON’T LOOK. DON’T LOOK. DON’T LOOK.”
I jumped, the video was skipping, stuck on the sounds of my mother’s panic stricken voice begging me not to stare, but I couldn’t help it. I stared and watched this creature take confident, unnatural and twitchy strides from the background, getting ever closer to the camera. I saw the muscles on its face twist and undulate as it pressed its cheeks up into a twisted grin, the sight of rot and earth and unspeakable things in its mouth all displaying themselves in full glory as it intonated one word that sent screams through my home before shutting off.
“SOON.”
-
Natalie was 8 months gone, petite and a history of prior drug abuse. They said her heart just couldn’t take it, her body gave out, and that it was a miracle our daughter survived.
I took it all in and yet none of it as I cradled my entire universe in my arms, the second greatest woman I’d ever known now taken from me too.
“Phoebe.” I breathed, unable to take my eyes off of her perfect little face as she slept soundly just 12ft from her dead mother. “Her name is Phoebe, and she is the crown princess.”
Somewhere in the corner of my eye, a shadow cast itself over Natalie’s bed, right as they put the sheet over her.
From that night on, there would always be noises outside our home. Always faint howling. Always a solitary spot in the front of the property where no light could touch it.
For a while, I forgot about the videos. Forgot about everything that wasn’t Phoebe. Raising her became priority #1 and I would work any extra hours I needed to, give up any friendship I had to and spite myself in whatever way was necessary to ensure that my perfect girl slept soundly at night.
It wasn’t until Phoebe’s 2nd birthday last week that I finally got the courage to dig out the videos and watch the last one.
How many times had I sat in a home, emotionally destroyed and at a crossroads in my life, waiting to see this woman’s face and hope she’d somehow have the magic words to guide me?
As the picture flickered on, the logo shining up on screen; I cast my head back with a mixture of surprise and sadness as I realised the significance of the year;
I was older than her now.
“Hi sweetie, I guess we’ve finally reached the end, huh?”
Her voice sounded… younger. I looked down and saw her standing up. No chair or wallpaper in sight. It looked like she was recording this in her bedroom, a picture of health, all things considered. Her eyes red from crying but her voice unwavering, like she’d prepared these words carefully.
“This is technically the final video for you, but the first for me. Weird how this all works, but this is how it needs to happen… if you’re watching this, you’ve got your own little princess to protect. The crown prince has now become the king, and I couldn’t be prouder!” She beamed, but my stomach tightened at those words.
“Your own little princess.”
I breathed, my chest tightening. How did she know?
“I imagine you’re now wondering how I know. Well, that’s not the important part. What’s important is if you saw what you think you saw. Within the videos, between the frames. There is something lurking here, Nick. Something ancient.”
I felt the house shudder, settling into place, no doubt. But I couldn’t separate myself from the fear running through my body.
“It feeds on misfortune. It watches from the shadows and waits for small, tiny windows to make itself known. I don’t know where it came from or what it is, but I know what it wants…”
A rumbling behind me, the sound of wood splintering and creaking. The unmistakable sound of tapping that i’d heard every time we did the mantra at the end of a video. I was shaking, but I didn’t stop watching.
“It wants us, Nick. We seem to be a… source for it. When it finishes using us, it moves on. A long time ago... I was told that if I captured it in film, solidified it in these repeatable tapes, it would slow it down… maybe even stop it. I have no idea if it’ll work, but you deserve to know now that you can almost certainly see it too. Because if it doesn’t stop here, if YOU start to see it… start to experience misfortune…”
My heart skipped. Tripping over the stairs and narrowly missing cracking my skull as a child, losing my first tooth. The hit and run that shattered my arm, my first broken bone. Marrying and losing Natalie, my first love…
Oh no.
Oh god, no.
I willed my body to move, to leap out of the seat and rush to Phoebe’s room, but I had to hear the rest through, screaming at my mom to tell me the solution.
“When your Deda Mihail told me about our curse… how he took me in after my Father died... about how it passes from father to daughter, mother to son, and so forth… You can try to avoid it, but it always finds a way…" She looked down in shame, clutching at her sleeves. "Truth be told; I didn’t want to get pregnant. But, things have a way of happening and I knew I couldn’t give you up.” She glanced behind her, something off camera scaring her into grabbing at her arms and rubbing them, shame and fear on her face. “I’m so sorry, baby. But I want you to know that there is power in these words. In these videos. I will do EVERYTHING I can to protect you, just like I know you’ll protect your child. No matter who it hurts in the process. Because…”
One last time. I just had to close my eyes one last time and it would all be over.
I did it on instinct. It didn’t matter that there was a slew of sounds alerting me to an invading presence in my home. That it was rapidly approaching me.
All that mattered was the mantra.
“I’ll be here for you, always.”
But what I heard parroting me back was not my mother.
A guttural, inhuman voice barked back the phrase and I swear I felt its breath inches from my face. I felt eyes unrestricted by pupils or sockets spin around, focusing on my weakest point. But I didn’t waver.
After a few agonising moments, it darted away and out of view, leaving only the static of the TV to keep me aware that I wasn’t in fact dreaming.
As soon as I knew it was safe, I ran to Phoebe’s room and checked on her, convinced that she was next in a long line of losses. Convinced that some otherworldly spectre had taken her from me.
Convinced I would be alone again.
You can imagine my relief when I opened the door to find her softly sleeping, clutching her teddy bear with his own attached blankie. The same toy my mom had given me.
I looked at her with the enormity of the situation overshadowing me. The realisation she was the same age I was when my mom got diagnosed.
The realisation that soon, I would be the one making a slew of videos for milestones I’d never get to see her inherit.
My crown princesses’ kingdom of nightmares.
And I don’t know if this is what my mother intended, but I took those words at the end to heart.
“Protect your child. No matter who it hurts in the process.”
-
I’m sorry, everyone.
I don’t know HOW this translates across mediums, but there is power in describing an old and malevolent force. Just like there is seeing it in the corner of your eye or when you experience a lucky break from death. A mis-step here and a wrong turn there. You’ll always see it.
My mother gave up everything to buy time, give me the chance to right the wrongs and find a better way, a way that involves my daughter growing up with her father in her life, without the plague of whatever this is hanging over either of us.
Maybe you won’t be the one, maybe it will simply look at you and find you not to its liking as it did me that fateful night, inches away from my flesh and determining that I simply wasn’t “ripe enough” yet.
But someone will come across this, and it will bite. It will bite and never let go. Be it nightmares, sleep paralysis, a slew of unfortunate mishaps or something flitting in the corner of your eye, it’ll be there. Whatever it is.
Waiting.
I wish you well, and I hope you don’t judge me too harshly.
But to me and to Phoebe, family is everything.
So close your eyes and take a deep breath.
Because they’ll always be with you.

Post AEW Dynamite 1/27/21

It's Wednesday Night. You Know What That Means. 🖐👁💜

Match	Winner	Post Match Brawl?
Eddie Kingston Vs. Lance Archer	Eddie Kingston	Yes
Jericho/MJF Vs. Hollywood Blondes	Jericho/MJF	No
Hangman Adam Page Vs. Ryan Nemeth	Hangman	No
Jungle Boy Vs. Noted Weenie Dax "The Bald One" Harwood	Jungle Boy	Yes
Britt Baker Vs. Shanna	Britt Baker	Yes
Young Bucks/Good Brothers VS Dark Order	Nu-Bullet Club	Yes

Future Announced Matches
Next Week (Beach Break):

Britt Baker Vs. Thunder Rosa
Tag Team Battle Royale for title shot at Revolution.
Pac Fenix Mox Vs. Omega Gallows Anderson

No Date Yet But Announced

Womens Eliminator Tournament
- Riho will take on Serena Deeb on the US side of the bracket first(!)

Revolution

Cage/Starks Vs Darby/Sting ("Streetfight")
AEW Tag Team Title Match: Young Bucks Vs. TTBR Winner

Outside of Dynamite

On Dark
- Proud n Powerful have a brief promo, where they say that for anyone that's been asleep, wake up and smell the coffee, it's their time to eat. We've had fair warning. Seems like maybe they're not done with the dream of being a tag team regardless of last week's match.
- Lee Johnson, who has lost on Dark to nearly every single one of AEW's unbelievably THICC roster has finally obtained a win by defeating Future AEW World Champion Pretty Peter Avalon in the walkoff competition. Big round of applause for Lord of Dark Lee Johnson for finally finding a way to get that dub.
- Chaos Project, perhaps recovering from their wounds inflicted upon them for the crime of.... hating children, is not on this weeks Dark, which makes this a Dark worth skipping. THROW EM THE FUCK UP ANYWAY 👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪👉🤪
On IMPACT this Tuesday:
- Welcome back to the Impact Zone.
- Its the Tony's! It's the Tony's. Boy is it ever the Tony's Each week Tony seems more comfortable being a rich, snobby douchebag who is just here to rile up Impact fans. He's really killing it out there being a rich snobby douchebag.
- Matt is with Private Party backstage in Impact. He says he led them to victory, PP says uh, I think our wrestling is probably more of a contributor. Matt tells them to look forward to No Surrender where they're going to win Impacts titles, but also at the TTBR on Dynamite, they gotta win that too. Matt says he's putting a bounty-- "BONUS" to them if they win. He needs them to win (Because he wants that $$$).
- Matt Sabin and James Storm are at the IMPACT ZONE Bar and Grille talkin' shit about Hardy Party and the Good Brothers. Sabin says they're not Beer Money, they're not MCMG, but they still got what it takes to beat both of 'em.
- fellongreydaze, or Fellon "WRONG" Grey "INCORRECT" Daze as we called them back in the navy, bet that Shawn Spears would be the mystery opponent scheduled for tonight's Impact last week-- but they were DEAD WRONG and should be shamed in the comments wherever you see them.
The AEW Awards, Exclusively on the B/R Live Telephone Application
- miber3 wrote up the winners here if you're interested.

At Dynamite

Eddie and his Family laid out Jake, then continued to abuse Lance after they cheated to win. No one came out to save Lance or Jake, unfortunately.
Moxley is reiterating how he doesn't understand the entanglements occurring in the Elite and Death Triangle, himself and Eddie's family. He says he's a simple guy, he likes his beer cold, his coffee hot, and good sex in the morning. He doesn't overcomplicate things-- but he LOVES a six man tag. Gang warfare! It'll be wild at Beach Break, he says.
Darby and Sting are here. Sting says Taz, Brian, Ricky, since we're gonna be in this street sight, and you can't shut the fuck up, we're not cool. ME, A HOODLUM? he asks. Sting says, okay yeah, Darby's a hoodlum. Darby says it doesn't matter if it's clean or dirty in the streets, it's about survival. Darby calls Sting a hoodlum. They break windows together (this isn't a joke) then both agree that yes, actually, okay, they are in fact hoodlums. What a twist.
Before their match MJF tells Sammy they need to talk, then insults Griff for awhile, then asks him to simply quit before the match starts. Griff pounds his face and the match gets underway.
Pac is back in the den of madness. He tells Kenny he's acting like Billy Big Bollocks and that he owns this business with Callis. He says Kenny's a cheater and a slimeball. Next week, he says, bring everything you want, we're gonna hurt you back. Kenny will pay the consequences.
Shaq calls Cody a little punk and says he looks like a little girl in a recorded promo from the awards show. Says he'll fight him any time. But how about specifically, March? We then cut to Tony Schiavone who is in the ring waiting for Cody's new shitty snoop dog theme remix to finish. I think that the people who despise Cody and those who don't think he's the antichrist can probably find common ground here with this theme issue. Arn also is here. Tony asks Cody to respond to both Jade and Shaq. He says he'd rather "just give you the pitch", March 7th, Revolution, Cody/Brandi vs. Jade/Shaq. But, oops, can't, Brandi's pregnant, so... Cody says he's confused and distracted, so maybe Arn can solve this as he does many things. Arn says he chewed Cody's ass out earlier because he deserved it. Arn asks for patience through his promo. He says Cody is about to be a dad, which is gonna be all over his mind. But think about it like this. June 1985. He saw Dusty fight 30 minutes with Tully, fly across country, then see the Cody Fetus being born. Arn says if you choose to fight Shaq at Revolution, you have to do it eyes wide open, no regrets. He says this is a once in a lifetime match. Shaq dominated basketball and proved he was world class. He says Jade dominates every room she's in, he assumes. But Arn sees something. He then invites the actually great Red Velvet out. She comes out looking very strong, and says she has fire. Velvet gets the mix. She says, quite frankly, she's fed up with getting attacked, she's tired of Brandi getting attacked by big mouth coward Jade. She says Cody won't hurt Jade, but she will. She will stir her bitch ass up, she says. JR responds with "She said bitch ass. That means she's serious". Good shit JR. The segment ends.
Kip spills some poetry about Penelope. PENELOPE SPEAKS. She says she's excited to marry this handsome man. She invites us to Beach Break for their wedding. Miro jumps in and says Miro and Charles will be there too! What a story Miro.
Matt Hardy came out during the Page/Nemeth match. He applauds Hangman after the win, then Hangman invites him over. Tony Schiavone comes over for a chat. He asks what's happening. Matt says he didn't want to make a scene. Matt just wanted Hangman to know he supports him. Matt says he's been concerned, Adam's been lost. He says he know Hangman loved his friends and they all burned him. Matt says Dark Order isn't for you. He wants Adam to know he deserves to be happy. Matt says you should come to my dressing room! Plenty of space!
Tully throws powder into Luchasaurus' eyes after the match, then Noted Weenies FTR are able to destroy both Jungle Boy and deliver a spiked piledriver to Luchasaurus from Tully to finish him off. They cuff Luchasaurus to the ropes and they cut off his horns!! ABSOLUTELY UNFORGIVABLE ACT. They go to cut off Jungle Boys' hair, but luckily this is averted by half the locker room.
We go to Team Taz. Taz says Ricky and Brian are ready to destroy them-- but then Will and HOOK come up to a merch dealer set up outside the arena and beat them up because they have no Team Taz merch. "First name basis, huh brothers?" Taz asks. Forgotten Son Of Taz Brian Cage rips a tshirt. The segment ends.
Britt continues hear beatdown of Shanna after their match only to be interrupted by Thunder Rosa. Rosa runs her out the ring before checking on Shanna.
MJF is with Sammy while Sammy is at the Dynamite Bar and Grille. MJF says Wardlow wasn't supposed to get involved in MJF's match and MJF docked his pay. Sammy says MJF doesn't fool him. He might be the only one who sees it, but he does see it. MJF says "You sure you want to play it this way?" Sammy says he isn't playing and MJF retreats.
The Bucks are in the TTBR, if they win they get to choose their opponents for the title match.
Dasha is with the Bucks and Good Brothers. It's been years since the last time you fought, how's it feel she asks. The Good Brothers say they're gonna crush their match next week. The Bucks say it'll all be fine as long as Callis doesn't get involved. Kenny swings by and says hey, we need to talk. Don comes by with an absurd phantom of the opera mask on because even an unsalted slug is jealous of how slimy he is, and everything breaks into an argument as the Bucks' music plays.
Matt says next week the winners get a shot at the belts, and if they win, they get to pick anyone. And it can be anyone. Just then, Fenix runs in, then Mox, and chaos ensues as the show concludes for the week.

Post-Show Poll Results & Surprising Biblical Knowledge

1/13 Results:
- Overall Rating 3.87
- Best Match: Allin Vs Cage (61.3%)
- Worst Match: Taylor Vs. Miro (50.8%)
- Wrestler of the Week: 1st: Darby Allin (46.2%), 2nd: Brian Cage/Tay Conti (Tie: 12.4%/12.4%)
- Full results here
1/20 Results
- Overall Rating 2.95
- Best Match: Adam Page & Dark Order Vs. TH2 & Chaos Project (38.1%)
- Worst Match: Cody Vs. PPA (39.5%)
- Wrestler of the Week: 1st: Adam Page (28.5%), 2nd: Sammy Guevara (20.6%) 3rd: Jon Moxley (5.9%)
- Full results here
Leyla Hirsh was just barely out of WOTW range, only 3 votes from Moxley's position, pretty good showing from someone not even officially signed to the roster. I'd expect that to change before, during, or after the women's eliminator tournament.
- 28 of you goons rated last weeks show a five out of five. I just wanna know, what do you consider a FOUR? Does someone need to DIE ON AIR?
Proverbs 6:16-19 of the Bible states as follows: There are six things that the Lord hates, seven that are an abomination to him: haughty eyes, a lying tongue, and hands that shed innocent blood, a heart that devises wicked plans, feet that make haste to run to evil, a false witness who breathes out lies, and one who sows discord among brothers. However, apocryphal texts found alongside the Dead Sea Scrolls include an additional, recently discovered passage: "Woe be unto that which is most abominable to Him: His most despicable creation and most loathed enemy, Eddie Kingston, whose existence and iniquity has displeased Him greater than that of any other man created in His image. To him The Lord's curses flow freely, and the blood of his hands and the sweat of his brow which pours forth in multitudes of sorrow, He will take His greatest joy.". It's clear now to me, having read and understood these lost words of King Solomon, that Eddie Kingston may be correct about his relationship with God.

Hacksaw Jim Duggan Buries All Elite Wrestling
With a wrestling career that's lasted more than 40 years, Jim Duggan's power level is beyond comprehension. If he hasn't beaten an AEW wrestler directly, he's beaten them through a few degrees of separation.
Could Hacksaw Jim Duggan defeat Sting?

11/7/86 - Hacksaw Jim Duggan & Dr. Death Steve Williams defeat The Fabulous Freebirds in a Country Whippin' Match PS THIS SHIT RULES WATCH THIS
6/6/87 - The Fabulous Freebirds defeat Rick Steiner & Sting

Yes, Hacksaw Jim Duggan could easily defeat Sting.
Hacksaw has previously defeated:
Kenny Omega, Colt Cabana, Hikaru Shida, Kris Statlander, Eddie Kingston, Chris Jericho, Darby Allin, John Silver, Evil Uno, Hangman Adam Page, Private Party, Alex Reynolds, Matt Hardy, Jon Moxley, and the Young Bucks.
And has lost to only one man:
The Exalted One, Mr. Brodie Lee
Outside Links
Being The Elite on Youtube
AEW Dark & More on Youtube
Visit /AEWOfficial - The Most "Official" Unofficial Subreddit for All Elite Wrestling fans.
Visit AllEliteWrestling.com for news, tickets, merch, and other info.
Watch Impact Wrestling On Twitch

Frog's breakdown of the 49ers QB options

I didn't intend on doing any write ups this year. I haven't even been following football as closely as I used to. It had become too much of an obsession for me so I decided to step back and try to make it just a game I watch for entertainment again. I've mostly succeeded in that. I've turned off games that I wasn't enjoying (for me that is unheard of) and I haven't done a deep dive into anything until now. But now that the season is over, I figure this sub could use some more wild speculation fuel to dig into and find hope in. So I'm going to break down every possible QB option for 2021. Thats not to say that I'm sure Jimmy G is done, but with a potentially drastically lower cap, a $30m 30 year old QB with only 2 seasons of experience with consistency issues and coming off his 2nd season ending injury in 3 years definitely ain't a sure thing.
In House Options

Jimmy Garoppolo

I'm not gonna spend a lot of effort on this part because you already know all you need to here. Jimmy has been hot and cold for his entire run here. The team can absolutely win a superbowl with him if everything goes right. There's no doubt about that. Where there is doubt is whether it would be a lot easier with someone else. Jimmy is in the tier of QBs that I really struggle with. He's just good enough that you aren't desperate to try to replace him, but you probably could improve on if you tried hard enough.
Cutting/Trading Jimmy next year would free up 24m in cap space. Money they need. if the cap does fall to it's minimum of 175m next year, we're barely under that as things stand. Meanwhile half the team are FAs. Now it would be possible to work around that, but it would in part mean doubling down on Jimmy and converting some of that salary to signing bonus, adding dead money and making it harder to move on later. This, I think, is potentially the the final nail in Jimmy's 49ers tenure. They have to choose between moving on and committing for several years more. I don't think he's done enough to make that a decision they can make easily.

Mullens/Beathard

While on the surface this option doesn't look like much of an option at all, it's still worth considering the other two QBs on the roster. Especially they both got pretty significant play time this season. We still have to have backups QBs after all.
Mullens has had flashes of being an efficient QB in this scheme, but he's also pretty limited. His arm strength is bottom tier for players in the NFL. He's also been inconsistent. For every Raiders or Jets game there's a Philly game to match. He is an RFA in 2021, meaning the 49ers can keep him fairly cheaply while also netting a draft pick if someone else wants him more. If they do move on from Jimmy I think it's a good chance they do tender Mullens.
Beathard has an NFL arm and NFL toughness, but not a lot else going for him. His pocket presence is non existent and his accuracy in the short game is weak at best. He's a solid backup option for his ability to take a hit and keep playing but otherwise I don't see enough upside there.
Neither of these guys will be the plan at QB, but either could be retained as a backup and maybe could potentially be asked to be the starter while a rookie gets ready in 2021.
Trades

Deshaun Watson

Who the hell would have ever thought the Niners would get a second shot at landing Watson? The Texans have gone full on crazy and completely ruined their relationship with a top 5 QB. There is no question about scheme fit or whether he'd be a good add. The only questions are cost and opportunity. Watson has a no trade clause in his contract, meaning they can only trade him somewhere he wants to go. So the Niners would only have to offer enough that none of the other teams on his list are willing to match. Unfortunately I think there are several teams he'd be fine with who have way more draft capital to pull such a trade off. Also with the Niners currently having 37 free agent, they need all the draft picks they can get if they want to keep the high quality of depth the roster currently has.
I would love to have Watson, but I don't think this one is realistic. It's gonna cost in the area of 3 1st round picks + and there are QB needy teams with multiple 1s this year. The Niners would have to bet the security of their roster on Watson.

Matt Stafford

Stafford is a clear upgrade from Jimmy, would cost less against the cap the next 2 years, and could be had for significantly less than Watson. There isn't a lot of downside to trading for him. Sure a top 15 pick and maybe more is a steep price for any trade, but I don't think there is anyone they could pick at 12 that would improve the team anywhere near as much as Stafford. The only potential issues are that he'll need to be extended next season, he's already 33, and he's had a litany of minor injuries over the years. Mostly he plays through them, but it's rare that he doesn't show up on the injury report for a decent span all the same.

Aaron Rodgers

Keep dreamin'

Sam Darnold

This is a weird option, but it's possible so we should talk about it. Darnold on the surface seems like a bad QB. However there are some reasons to question whether he can start in the NFL. first off, look at the jump in performance Ryan Tannehill had when he got away from Adam Gase. Secondly, look at Darnold's teammates. Aside from Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder, he's not really had even decent WRs to throw to. From watching him play it seems most of his problems aren't from lack of accuracy or talent, but stemming from his need to play like a gunslinger on every single play. He's simply not good enough to be Russel Wilson and just wait for the inevitable failure of every schemed play and still succeed anyways. If he were in an efficiency base offense I think theres a chance he could turn out to be a damn good QB. With Saleh and LaFleur taking over the Jets, I think they might give him another go if they don't trade for Watson.
Darnold would not be someone they trade for with the intention of him being the immediate starter. He's had too bad a track record for that, however if they stick with Jimmy for 2021 I could see them replacing the backups with Darnold and giving him a chance to win the start.
Free Agents

Dak Prescott

If the Cowboys let him walk they are insane. However I will never doubt their ability to be insane seeing as how it's insane they haven't paid him yet. Even if he did hit FA I don't think SF would be buyers. He's just too expensive for their current cap situation. If they could work it out he'd be a great fit, but it's just too steep a price tag
Rookies
There are are some really good QBs in this draft. The bad news is that it's unlikely the 49ers are going to be in a position to get most of them. Trevor Lawrence would be amazing but there no chance in hell that they'll be able to get him. However the rest of the field is potentially reachable. I'm not even gonna bother with writing up Lawrence. It's not gonna happen. I'm only gonna cover the guys who will potentially go round 1.
The trade up candidates:

Justin Fields, Ohio State
Zach Wilson, BYU

Both of these guys are going well before pick 12. So the Niners would have to decide if it's worth it to go all in and move up for one. Both would be good fits in the offense and both would bring a level of mobility that Shanahan hasn't had since RGIII. Fields is the better running threat and while he's a pretty damn good passer, I'm not nearly as sold on him throwing as I am Wilson. If the 49ers want a rookie who can step in and take them on a deep playoff run, Wilson is my guy. I think Fields is more likely to take some time to develop, similar to Josh Allen. Wilson, and not just because BYU, seriously reminds me of Steve Young. The athleticism and arm talent are on that tier. Whether he can process fast enough to play that well against NFL competition is the question, given he's played in a weaker conference. I see nothing on the tape to doubt that, but it's still a concern.
The pick 12 (or later) candidates:

Trey Lance, NDSU
Mac Jones, Bama
Kyle Trask, Florida

Trey Lance is an interesting option. He's very mobile, has good arm strength and a pretty deep ball. I do question his ability to play at the NFL level early on. He just looks like a college QB. It's a thing I can never quite put my finger on that just rubs me the wrong way about some QBs. I also think he's the kind of QB you have to base your offense around, not tweak your offense to fit, which is problematic for Shanahan. The other obvious issue is that he only started one season and then only played one game in 2020. Obviously that isn't his fault, but it's noteworthy. He's a high risk high reward pick. If he is what he seems he could be incredible, but it's hard to believe that he is going to be the same guy who didn't throw a pick all season in the NFL.
Mac Jones is very much a pocket passer. He's got a good arm and has shown an ability to make some more complex reads, but his WRs always being open by 5 yards and his OL being ridiculous may have overinflated his abilities. I think he'd be a solid choice in round 2 as a backup to develop into a starter should they want to go that route, but to take him at 12 and giving him the start? I dunno about that.
Trask I don't really get the hype for. Admittedly I've only watched 2 games, but neither were that impressive and his arm strength is not good enough. We already have Nick Mullens.
Now I want to look at the merits of the different strategies. They have a lot of options open to them and each has it's benefits and problems. None are perfect.
This team has an open superbowl window. So their QB strategy should reflect that. That means either keeping Jimmy, who got them to a superbowl once already, Trading for a vet who will be able to step in and immediately compete for a superbowl, or trading up for a rookie who they think is a day 1 competitor. Those are the only options that make sense to me. The only other strategy that I can even reason is try to use 2021 to re-tool and not really focus on making a playoff run again immediately. That seems too risky and too pessimistic for my taste.
Going all in on Jimmy is a non starter to me. He hasn't been reliable enough. So if they keep Jimmy it should be on his deal as is, and they'd need to draft a QB either in the 2nd or 3rd tier or add a QB like Darnold as competition. They should expect to move on from Jimmy after 2021, unless he does something to shut that expectation down. I'm not a big fan of this strategy. It leaves us with a tiny amount of cap space and would mean losing a ton of depth, while still having to spend picks to provide competition for Jimmy. Another option would be to roll with Jimmy and Mullens/Beathard again with the understanding that if he doesn't take them back to 11+ wins they're gonna move on and sign Cousins in FA in 2022. Not a huge fan of that either
Trading up for a rookie is probably the best long term strategy, but it risks missing out on deep playoff runs early on. It is way easier to build a team with a QB on the rookie pay scale, but rookies rarely are able to make championship runs and if you miss on a QB you traded up for, you screw your franchise pretty hard. I think this may be worth it for Wilson, but I'm not sure I'd spend an extra 1st to get it done and I fear that would be the cost.
Trading for a vet is the most sure fire way to upgrade, but the cost is significant. IMO trading for Watson is simply too expensive. Yes, he'd keep the team a competitor for a long time to come, but I'm not sure they need a top 5 QB to stay competitive. 3 1sts is an insane price, and very likely what it would cost. You have to question whether Watson is better for the team than Jimmy G and 3 first round players combined. I can't definitively say yes to that.
After all this my conclusion is that the 49ers best option is to trade for Matt Stafford. He's got enough left in the tank that they can reasonably expect him to be the QB for 5 or more years, he absolutely has the talent to take them to a superbowl, he's a clear upgrade over Jimmy, he's less against the cap than Jimmy, he's a perfect scheme fit and has an ability to improvise that cannot be denied, his price tag wouldn't be too much to consider. I'd gladly give up the 12th pick for him. Hell it might even be beneficial to do so considering the Niners have 2021 cap issues. Not having to pay a 1st round rookie actually helps. a 12th overall pick would make around 6m a season. Using that money instead to lock up some of the depth or put it towards a Warner extension seems more useful if they upgrade at QB in the process.

Post-Super Bowl 7-Round Mock Draft

I added in projected compensatory picks from OTC and the compensatory picks from the new minority candidate development rule. Not sure how those are supposed to be structured in, so I simply used the OTC ones first in the order, but took off the last 3 estimated compensatory picks to ensure it remained at a simple 32 compensatory picks added. So apologies to the Cowboys, Bears, and Steelers. You might have been robbed of a pick but I don't know the specifics of how all those will be factored in. If someone knows the actual way those will set-up, that'd be useful information. Going to provide commentary on rounds 1-3 then maybe the occasional commentary after that if I really like a fit.
Also, there's a chance that I missed someone announcing they were returning to school or not. Just let me know if so.

Pre-Draft Trades

Using the terms suggested from a SB Nation article, so yell at them if you hate it: CAR sends: QB Teddy Bridgewater, 2021, 2022, 2023 first-round picks, 2021, 2022 second-round picks HOU sends: QB Deshaun Watson
The Panthers have drafted relatively well the last 2-3 years, as they have several younger pieces they can continue building around. Thus, a major package to land QB Deshaun Watson should be something they explore. For Houston, a king's ransom for a disgruntled star who really wants out.
An NFC championship contender adds a big piece to their offense: GB sends: 2021 second-round pick, 2022 fifth-round pick DAL sends: WR Michael Gallup, 2021 seventh-round pick
The Packers add some extra firepower on offense by adding Gallup. With Rodgers window coming to a close, the Packers take a chance that an established veteran like Gallup will do more for them than a very late second-round pick. Dallas has Amari Cooper and now CeeDee Lamb at WR, making Gallup expendable if they get a good offer for him.
An NFC playoff team makes a splash at the quarterback position: WAS sends: 2021 fourth-round pick, 2022 seventh-round pick JAC sends: QB Gardner Minshew
While the Redskins did not land Stafford, they could still find a solid upgrade at the QB position by bringing in Gardner Minshew. I love how he fits in Scott Turner's offense, and think this would be a decent enough price to pay to give them some stability at the position.

First Round

(1) Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson - I'd imagine even though it's the only pick that never changes, Jaguars fans aren't bored of seeing this. Lawrence is a special player and their best bet at turning things around in a hurry.
(2) New York Jets - QB Zach Wilson, BYU - There still could be a small chance that the Jets stick with Sam Darnold, but we're going to go ahead and give Darnold a fresh-start somewhere else (trade to be revealed later). I have Fields a smidge higher than Zach Wilson, but could easily see him being the selection here. I think Wilson's a better fit, however, for LaFleur's Shanahan style offense. Either way, a talented QB for the Jets and head coach Robert Saleh (great f***ing hire btw Jets fans).
(3) Miami Dolphins (via HOU) - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - With the Panthers giving up a haul for Deshaun Watson, the Dolphins may not have a lot of options to trade out of this spot. Thus, they stick tight and land an elite pass protector for QB Tua Tagovailoa.
(4) Atlanta Falcons - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - Personally, I love the idea of Fields coming back home to Georgia to sit behind Matt Ryan for a season. The Falcons, and new head coach Arthur Smith, would be wise to take a QB while they're in a natural position to snag one. Ryan will start 2021 for sure due to his contract, but if things go well, they could make a Mahomes like transition to Fields into 2022.
(5) Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern - There a lot of buzz that Slater could be above Sewell in the mind of many NFL executives. Either way, it's a strong pick for the Bengals and Joe Burrow to land a top offensive tackle.
TRADE! The Patriots send their 2021 1st (1.15) along with a 2021 3rd (3.98) and a 2022 1st to the Eagles to move up to their selection at 6.
(6) New England Patriots (via PHI) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Patriots need to make a significant investment in the QB position, as neither Cam Newton nor Jarrett Sitdham looked like the answer for them in 2020. Here they make a splash trade to move up and grab Lance, a player with immense physical talent. Ideally they'd land a veteran QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick to start in 2021 while they let Lance develop.
(7) Detroit Lions - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - One thing lost in the Stafford-Goff trade is Detroit essentially nuking its cap space by bringing in Goff's $28 million deal. Now $11 million over the estimated cap, the Lions do not seem likely to retain WR Kenny Golladay at this point. They need a replacement for Goff to throw to while they determine if he'll be around longer than 2021.
(8) Houston Texans (via CAR) - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - Without a QB available here, the Texans play it patient, letting newly acquired Teddy Bridgewater run the show in 2021. They instead my personal top choice at corner this year, Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley. For a defense that needs to get turned around, he represents an excellent building block for them.
TRADE! The Miami Dolphins get aggressive here, sending their second first-round pick (1.18), a 2021 3rd (3.82) and a 2022 2nd round pick, and swap 2nds with Denver to move up here.
(9) Miami Dolphins (via DEN) - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Dolphins go land a premier wide receiver target for QB Tua Tagovailoa to throw to. Chase and Smith will be widely debated for the top wide receiver honors in this draft class. Miami would likely be elated to add either one of them.
(10) Dallas Cowboys - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - Surtain may not be my top cornerback, but the Cowboys should have no hesitation adding him here at tenth overall, especially considering the dire state of their defense.
(11) New York Giants - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan - Paye is an exceptional athletic talent. Much like fellow Wolverine Rashan Gary coming out of Ann Arbor, he's still got plenty of room to grow into an elite rusher. He was dominant in the first few games for the Wolverines in an otherwise rough 2020 season for Harbaugh and co.
(12) San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina - I have top-15 grades on all three of the corners listed so far, so this remains excellent value in my opinion for the 49ers. They're likely going to lose a handful of cornerbacks to free agency this year, so landing a premier rookie to develop into a stud for DeMeco Ryans defense is a priority.
(13) Los Angeles Chargers - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - An excellent group of tackles in this year's draft class is a big benefit for the Chargers, as they're able to land a premier prospect like Darrisaw. He'll fit well in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi's offense in his second-go as a play-caller.
(14) Minnesota Vikings - T/G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker has the flexibility to play tackle or move inside to guard. The Vikings have a similar player in Ezra Cleveland, which should give them the ability to move some guys around and find the ideal pairing here.
(15) Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - The Eagles probably have some positional needs above this, but it'd be a mistake to go for a worse player at a lesser player, thus the selection of Rousseau. He's an elite athlete and was incredibly disruptive for the Hurricanes in 2019. With Brandon Graham getting up there in age, and Vinny Curry set to hit free agency, this selection goes best player available with the near future in mind.
(16) Arizona Cardinals - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida - The Cardinals could use a monsterous pass catcher like Pitts to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. With some strong flashes from QB Kyler Murray in 2020, adding one more weapon could provide the breakthrough the Cardinals need to make it into the playoffs.
TRADE! The Steelers make a move up, sending a 1st (1.24), their third (3.88) and a 2022 fifth to move up and make the selection here instead of the Raiders.
(17) Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas - Jumping ahead of a couple of OT-needy teams in the WFT and the Bears, Pittsburgh gets its future franchise pass protector. Cosmi's film shows a highly athletic tackle who has gotten better each season in Austin. Put in a strong program under Mike Tomlin, I think Cosmi can thrive as a future All-Pro.
(18) Denver Broncos (via MIA) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - The Broncos land an absolute steal here with Parsons, an elite blend of size and speed at the LB position. Additionally, his versatility should be a weapon for Vic Fangio to deploy, as he's capable of filling multiple roles on any defense.
(19) Washington Football Team - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - I think a bigger wide receiver would work a bit better, but Scott Turner's creativity in building an offense around mostly role/gadget players like Logan Thomas and Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic gives me confidence he can make it work with an elite talent like Waddle.
(20) Chicago Bears - G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - The Bears could probably go for a tackle a little bit more than a guard, but beggars cannot be choosers this late into the first-round. They land an elite interior lineman to immediately give a boost to their offensive line.
(21) Indianapolis Colts - QB Mac Jones, Alabama - Philip Rivers retired, Jacoby Brissett is a free agent, and Jacob Eason wasn't active for a single game. Add it all together and it looks like the Colts are in need of a QB like Jones. A decisive passer with a good deep ball, he'll be a nice addition for Frank Reich to mentor.
(22) Tennessee Titans - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami - The Titans pass rusher was miserable this past season. Injecting some youth and athleticism into the equation could help Mike Vrabel get his defense back on track. Phillips was excellent for the Hurricanes in 2020.
(23) New York Jets (via SEA) - OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama - The Jets add another big body here to pair on the other side of LT Mekhi Becton. With those two in town, new QB Zach Wilson should feel quite comfortable in the pocket.
(24) Las Vegas Raiders (via PIT) - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama - The sixth Crimson Tide player selected, Barmore was dominant the second half of the season in Tuscaloosa. He'd fill a big need on Ken Whisenhu...I mean, Gus Bradley's defense here in Vegas.
(25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - The Jaguars give Trevor Lawrence an explosive weapon to throw to. Toney lit up the SEC this season and was very impressive at the Senior Bowl. He'd join former Florida head coach Urban Meyer a short drive away.
(26) Cleveland Browns - DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns drafting this late with their own selection is a sign of how far they've come in recent years. They now have the ability to sit back and take the best player on the board in Nixon, a dominant pass rusher who came on strong in Big Ten play this year.
(27) Baltimore Ravens - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - I believe I've had this pick in the last mock I did as well, but it makes way too much sense. The Ravens need a top option at wide receiver and Bateman's a crafty player who fits their offense well.
(28) New Orleans Saints - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF - Robinson is a very underrated corner in this draft, and I really think he'll have a shot to land in the first-round. A quick player who always ends up in the right position, he'd be an excellent addition to the Saints defense.
(29) Green Bay Packers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - The Packers need some fresh blood at the second level, and Bolton's an absolute missile who flies all over the field. Bolton would fit really well in the middle of their defense, especially if the Packers hire a 3-4 zone blitz genius like Jim Leonhard as their new coordinator.
(30) Buffalo Bills - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - A debate here between Ojulari and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, but ultimately think the depth at LB is a bit better in this class then pass rusher. So, Ojulari joins Sean McDermott's defense in Buffalo.
(31) Kansas City Chiefs - iOL Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - The Chiefs need to add a starting caliber player to the interior of their offense line, and if Humphrey slides to them in the first-round, that'd be excellent value for them.
(32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Congratulations Bucs fans and the Brady bandwagon! Now, don't get too caught up on the position, the best way to maintain your dominance is to continue adding elite pieces, and Harris is a potential star at the RB position. Excellent in-between the tackles as well as in the passing game.

Second Round

(33) Jacksonville Jaguars - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU - I almost thought about Moehrig with their second first-round pick, but ultimately he still lands in Jacksonville.
(34) New York Jets - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - The Jets have the cap space to add a veteran WR like Allen Robinson or Kenny Golladay, so use the draft to add a stellar running back.
(35) Atlanta Falcons - CB Erik Stokes, Georgia - Another Georgia player sticking around, as Stokes gives them an excellent option to develop alongside Terrell.
(36) Denver Broncos (via MIA) - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A rising star at the cornerback position, Newsome fits well into Fangio's defense.
(37) Philadelphia Eagles - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - After adding an edge rusher earlier, the Eagles add a top wideout in the Trojan's star.
(38) Cincinnati Bengals - G Deonte Brown, Alabama - The Bengals, after trading for another starting guard earlier, continue to overhaul their line.
(39) Houston Texans (via CAR) - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas - The Texans add some pass rushing help on the edge of their front seven with Ossai.
(40) Miami Dolphins (via DEN) - OLB Zaven Collins, Tulsa - Collins is an ideal fit for Brian Flores, as he can lineup in a handful of different spots, similar to some of the linebackers he's worked with in Miami and New England.
(41) Detroit Lions - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame - The Lions add a rangy linebacker who can give them some much needed at the position.
(42) New York Giants - G Trey Smith, Tennessee - The Giants get an upgrade along the offensive with a powerful guard like Smith.
(43) San Francisco 49ers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington - The 49ers add an elite defensive tackle to pair with Javon Kinlaw on the inside.
(44) Dallas Cowboys - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - The Cowboys went defense earlier, but add a talented offensive lineman to restock the trenches here.
(45) Jacksonville Jaguars - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State - If Freiermuth falls to the Jags here that'd be an absolute steal. A high-caliber tight end who can do everything needed at the position.
(46) New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU - The Patriots, even if they add a QB, still need more weapons at WR. Marshall is an excellent one.
(47) Los Angeles Chargers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse - The Chargers give new head coach Brandon Staley an elite athlete to mold into a dominant cornerback for them.
(48) Las Vegas Raiders - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - The Raiders bring in another talent piece of Washington 2019 defensive line. He's got a high motor along with immense upside.
TRADE! The Colts hop in front of the Dolphins to land their guy. They send a 2022 3rd round pick along with their second (2.54) here to the Cardinals in exchange for this selection and a 2022 7th round pick.
(49) Indianapolis Colts (via ARI) - EDGE Carlos Basham, Wake Forest - I think Basham could definitely go higher than this, but if he's available in the second, the Colts should jump up to land him.
(50) Miami Dolphins - S Jevon Holland, Oregon - The Dolphins add a playmaking safety to join their defense. Holland was an excellent leader on defense for the Ducks.
(51) Washington Football Team - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - Washington has gotten serviceable production from a pair of aging OT's in Moses and Lucas. They add a developmental tackle to replace them soon enough.
(52) Chicago Bears - WR Nico Collins, Michigan - The Bears could see star WR Allen Robinson walk in free agency. Adding a deep threat like Collins to pair with Mooney would be fun.
(53) Tennessee Titans - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan - Another Wolverine in the second round here, Mayfield would give the Titans a strong Michigan-based tackle duo with Taylor Lewan's return.
(54) Arizona Cardinals (via IND) - iOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama - A tough, hard-nosed player on the interior, Dickerson can play a handful of spots, making him a versatile addition to the Cardinals line.
(55) Pittsburgh Steelers - RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina - The Steelers add a stud running back to help revive their run game.
(56) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State - The Seahawks could use some pass rush. Oweh's a bit raw, but can develop into a useful piece for Pete Carroll.
(57) Los Angeles Rams - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - The Rams add an athletic player at the second-level to keep their defense playing elite football. With the addition of QB Matthew Stafford, the Rams could be serious contenders for the NFC title in 2021.
(58) Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Adding Roche as a rush end in Martindale's 3-4 defense would be an excellent move as Baltimore seems unlikely to retain both Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon.
(59) Cleveland Browns - S Richie Grant, UCF - For a school most associate with high-powered offense, the UCF secondary is loaded, and Grant would make a fine addition for the Browns.
TRADE! The Saints send 2.60 and a 2022 third to the Jets in exchange for QB Sam Darnold.
(60) New York Jets (via NO) - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss - He seems to be trending higher than this, but either way, the Jets substitute a backup QB for an explosive wide receiver for Zach Wilson.
(61) Buffalo Bills - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa - The Bills run game needs a boost on the offensive line, and Brown's monstrous frame gives a lot of weight to that.
(62) Dallas Cowboys (via GB) - DT Jay Tufele, USC - After adding offensive line earlier in the second, the Cowboys go back to restocking their defense with talent.
(63) Kansas City Chiefs - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan - The Chiefs likely lose WR Sammy Watkins, but find an explosive piece here to replace him.
(64) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State - Rashed has a lot of physical traits that bolster his potential. Letting Todd Bowles develop him would be ideal.

Third Round

(65) Jacksonville Jaguars - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Urban Meyer and Jags add a defensive end with a high motor to develop along with Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson.
(66) New York Jets - CB Keith Taylor Jr., Washington - A long, versatile defensive back, Taylor reminds me a good deal of 49ers CB Richard Sherman in his playstyle.
(67) Houston Texans - S Talanoa Hufanga, USC - The Texans continue to overhaul their defense here, bringing in Hufanga to play a handful of roles in their backfield.
(68) Atlanta Falcons - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina - Excellent value for the Falcons here, whether or not they bring back RB Todd Gurley who played on a 1-year deal in 2020.
(69) Cincinnati Bengals - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford - The Bengals give their defense some reinforcements with the selection of an experienced corner like Adebo.
(70) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Jabrill Cox, LSU - The Eagles add a great athlete to the second-level of their defense. Cox has shown a lot of potential as a modern backer.
(71) Denver Broncos - EDGE Janarius Robinson, Florida State - With Von Miller in a bit of hot water at the moment, Denver make want to add a pass rusher to develop just in case.
(72) Detroit Lions - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse - Detroit's safety play was poor last year. Adding a high potential player like Cisco could be a good move for the rebuilding Lions.
(73) Carolina Panthers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College - Welcome to the board, Carolina! After making a splash trade for QB Deshaun Watson, the Panthers give him another weapon at tight end. Long impressed during the Senior Bowl.
(74) Washington Football Team - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan - McGrone has some inconsistency to his play, but offers a lot of upside for someone who can straighten him out.
(75) Dallas Cowboys - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke - The Cowboys take a chance on Dimukeje here to help get after opposing QB's more frequently.
(76) New York Giants - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue - I'd anticipate Golden Tate being a cap cut, and if so, Moore would be an explosive slot weapon to replace him.
(77) New England Patriots - PICK FORFEITED
(78) Los Angeles Chargers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt - A craft, versatile edge rusher, he'd project as an OLB in Staley defense with the Chargers.
(79) Minnesota Vikings - DT Alim McNeill, North Carolina State - The Vikings add an explosive 3-technique to help get their defense turned around in a hurry.
(80) Arizona Cardinals - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State - Wade was overhyped early on, but would fit well in the Cardinals defense, developing as a future replacement for Patrick Peterson.
(81) Las Vegas Raiders - S Richard Lecounte, Georgia - The Raiders add an experienced safety on the back end who can help them slow down divisional offenses led by Mahomes and Herbert.
(82) Denver Broncos - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame - The Broncos stop a bit of a slide here for Eichenberg. He has the ability to play RT or on the inside for Denver.
(83) Washington Football Team - S Joshuah Bledsoe, Missouri - An underrated player at the position, Bledsoe has a ton of versatility and would fit very well reinforcing Washington's already stellar defense.
(84) Chicago Bears - QB Kyle Trask, Florida - The Bears don't ignore the QB position entirely, as they take a later-than-expected flier on Trask. He was very good for Florida.
(85) Indianapolis Colts - CB Elijah Molden, Washington - Not the biggest need on the Colts roster, but they should have the cap to plug holes in free agency and pick better players, like Molden, here.
(86) Tennessee Titans - WR Dyami Brown, North Carolina - The Titans do have a stud WR in A.J. Brown, but with Corey Davis likely landing big money elsewhere, adding another player here is important.
(87) New York Jets (via SEA) - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston - A versatile pass rusher who can fit either a 4-3 or 3-4. Whatever system Saleh installs, Turner should find a home quickly.
(88) Las Vegas Raiders (via PIT) - LB Dylan Moses, Alabama - Once considered a potential top-10 pick, Moses has fallen off a bit, but the Raiders take a chance on him nonetheless.
(89) Detroit Lions (via LAR) - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State - Detroit should probably consider hitting the wide receiver position multiple times in the draft. The cabinet is empty there.
(90) Cleveland Browns - LB Ventrell Miller, Florida - The Browns linebackers are a major weak spot. If Cleveland wants to contend for the division, adding some speed there in Miller would help.
(91) Minnesota Vikings (via BAL) - S Paris Ford, Pittsburgh - With S Anthony Harris likely headed elsewhere in free agency, the Vikings take a chance on the hard-hitting ford as a replacement.
(92) Cleveland Browns - EDGE Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh - Back-to-back selections of Pitt Panthers here, Rashad is an excellent pass rusher to add into the mix.
(93) Green Bay Packers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State - The Packers add some beef to the inside of their defense, hoping to solidify a shaky group outside of DT Kenny Clark.
(94) Buffalo Bills - iOL Josh Myers, Ohio State - The Bills grab a starting caliber lineman here in Myers, who should help bolster the interior of their offensive line and give a boost to their run game.
(95) Kansas City Chiefs - OT Jackson Carmen, Clemson - The Chiefs need another offensive tackle to throw into the mix, as neither Eric Fisher nor Mitchell Schwartz figure to be around for too much longer.
(96) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State - While Wilson didn't dominant as many expected him to in 2020, perhaps slotting him alongside Vita Vea will free up mismatches for him.
Compensatory Selections
(97) Los Angeles Chargers - G Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater - Meinrez blew up the Senior Bowl, and could easily land as a top-100 prospect after that showing. LAC is a good fit here.
(98) Philadelphia Eagles - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami - With Zach Ertz and Philadelphia likely parting ways soon enough, Jordan gives the Eagles a gadget replacement in the passing game.
(99) Dallas Cowboys - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State - Another corner for Dallas as they really could use two strong selections to help rebuild the position. Samuel excels in the slot.
(100) New Orleans Saints - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson - The Saints add the best player on the board here for me, an exceptional wide out who will pair well with Michael Thomas.
(101) Tennessee Titans - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC - The Titans add another body to their defensive front, in hopes that Marlon and Simmons can become a dominant duo inside.
(102) Los Angeles Rams - WR Josh Imatorbhebhe, Illinois - One of the most underrated wide outs in the class, due to the lack of offensive savvy around him. Imatorbhebhe reminds me of Kenny Golladay, so pairing him with new Rams QB Matthew Stafford out to be fun.
(103) Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB - A long, toolsy pass rusher to develop into a sidekick for Danielle Hunter is the pick here for Mike Zimmer and co.
(104) San Francisco 49ers - OT Walker Little, Stanford - I'm certain the 49ers will bring back LT Trent Williams, but how much longer does he really have? Meanwhile, Little can play guard before taking over at left tackle soon enough.
(105) Los Angeles Rams - EDGE Shaka Toney, Penn State - Toney has good burst off the edge and with OLB Leonard Floyd headed towards the market, the Rams could stand to add some pass rushers.
(106) New Orleans Saints - RB Trey Sermon, Ohio State - With a cap crunch, paying $4 million for Latavius Murray may be a luxury the Saints cannot afford. Cutting him and drafting Sermon can offset that.

Fourth Round

Just a reminder, but almost half of all fourth-round selections (46%) are no longer on the roster after two years in their career, so don't take these picks too seriously, as this is also where teams start to diverge from needs a bit more and go best available. The aim is rotational players who might be contributors by their 3rd year with the franchise. If you have a significant need, fill it in free agency, not the day three of the draft. If you're banking on your team to find a starter here at a key position, you're already kind of screwed. Really I'm less focused on needs as opposed to getting good value here. Am trying to avoid doubling up on prospects, but sometimes teams actually do that.
(107) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU (108) New York Jets - G David Moore, Grambling State (109) Atlanta Falcons - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State (110) Houston Texans - QB Jaime Newman, Georgia - The Texans don't draft a QB in the first, but do take a chance on Newman's upside to develop behind Bridgewater.
(111) Cleveland Browns - WR Seth Williams, Auburn (112) Cincinnati Bengals - S Jamien Sherwood, Auburn (113) Detroit Lions - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma (114) Carolina Panthers - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State (115) Denver Broncos - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State - With Lindsay hitting the market, maybe the Broncos don't bring him back and Jefferson as a change of pace back behind Gordon instead.
(116) Dallas Cowboys - TE Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame (117) New York Giants - RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Oklahoma - An excellent backup for Saquon Barkley if the Giants don't re-sign Wayne Gallman. (118) San Francisco 49ers - S James Wiggins, Cincinnati (119) Los Angeles Chargers - RB Demetric Falcon, UCLA (120) Minnesota Vikings - WR Dazz Newsome, North Carolina
(121) New England Patriots - WR Whop Philyor, Indiana (122) Las Vegas Raiders - G Sadarius Hutcherson, South Carolina (123) Houston Texans - WR Marlon Williams, UCF (124) Miami Dolphins - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh (125) Jacksonville Jaguars - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina - The Jags had a good year out of Sidney Jones, but still could use an intriguing developmental option like Mukuamu behind him.
(126) Minnesota Vikings - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State (127) Tennessee Titans - G Ben Cleveland, Georgia (128) Indianapolis Colts - WR Jaelon Darden, North Texas (129) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU - The Steelers get some excellent value here, as I think Vincent is one of the top slot corners in the draft. Could easily replace Hilton. (130) Seattle Seahawks - CB Shakur Brown, Michigan State
(131) Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Monty Rice, Georgia (132) Baltimore Ravens - iOL Trey Hill, Georgia (133) Cleveland Browns - TE Cary Angeline, North Carolina State (134) New Orleans Saints - EDGE Tarron Jackson, Coastal Carolina - With Trey Hendrickson likely departing and Marcus Davenport still yet to hit double-digit sacks, the Saints may look to add another piece to develop here. (135) Minnesota Vikings - RB Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech
(136) Green Bay Packers - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati (137) Kansas City Chiefs - LB Anthony Hines III, Texas A&M - A quick linebacker, he'd fit nicely into the Chiefs defense alongside Willie Gay and others. (138) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - QB Davis Mills, Stanford (139) New England Patriots - EDGE Adetokunbo Ogundeji, Notre Dame (140) Dallas Cowboys - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU
(141) Los Angeles Rams - TE Tre McKitty, Georgia (142) Pittsburgh Steelers - DT Darius Stills, West Virginia (143) Green Bay Packers - RB Kylin Hill, Mississippi State - With Aaron Jones hitting the market, the Packers may look for another back to add to their rotation. Hill would be a great addition. (144) Kansas City Chiefs - CB Roger McCreary, Auburn (145) New England Patriots - OT Cordell Volson, North Dakota State

Fifth Round

(146) Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Brady Christensen, BYU (147) New York Jets - DL Brenton Cox, Florida (148) Houston Texans - EDGE Jonathan Cooper, Ohio State (149) Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Kingsley Enagbare, South Carolina - PFF actually lists Enagbare as a top-100 player on their latest big board, which, if accurate, would be tremendous value. (150) Cincinnati Bengals - WR Anthony Schwartz, Auburn
(151) Philadelphia Eagles - CB Robert Rochell, Central Arkansas - Big fan of Rochell's a potential starter down the road. Would fit well with Marcus Gannon calling the defense. (152) Carolina Panthers - G Kendrick Green, Illinois (153) Denver Broncos - QB Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (154) Detroit Lions - CB Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky (155) New York Jets - S Caden Sterns, Texas
(156) San Francisco 49ers - CB Camryn Bynum, California (157) Philadelphia Eagles - OT Adrian Ealy, Oklahoma (158) Minnesota Vikings - CB Rodarius Williams, Oklahoma State (159) New England Patriots - DT Milton Williams, Louisiana Tech (160) Los Angeles Chargers - WR Simi Fehoko, Stanford
(161) Arizona Cardinals - RB Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State - He'd be an excellent fit in the Cardinals backfield, especially if Kenyan Drake does not return. (162) Buffalo Bills - CB Tay Gowan, UCF (163) Las Vegas Raiders - QB Feleipe Franks, Arkansas (164) Washington Football Team - WR Jonathan Adams Jr., Arkansas State (165) Chicago Bears - CB D.J. Daniel, Georgia
(166) Indianapolis Colts - OT Brendan Jaimes, Nebraska (167) Tennessee Titans - OLB Charles Snowden, Virginia (168) Seattle Seahawks - OT Dan Moore Jr., Texas A&M (169) Baltimore Ravens - QB Sam Ehlinger, Texas - Unless the Ravens are certain that Trace McSorley is their backup QB, they may want to look at adding Ehlinger behind Lamar. (170) Cleveland Browns - LB Tony Fields II, West Virginia
(171) Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Tamorrion Terry, Florida State (172) Minnesota Vikings - QB Ian Book, Notre Dame (173) San Francisco 49ers - iOL Drake Jackson, Kentucky (174) Green Bay Packers - CB Ambry Thomas, Michigan (175) Buffalo Bills - S Reed Blankenship, Middle Tennessee State
(176) Kansas City Chiefs - EDGE Malcolm Koonce, Buffalo (177) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - LB Garrett Wallow, Texas Christian (178) Green Bay Packers - S Tyree Gillespie, Missouri (179) Atlanta Falcons - C James Empey, BYU - The Falcons find themselves a quality interior lineman who could use a year to develop before getting in the mix to replace Alex Mack down the road. (180) Dallas Cowboys - WR Josh Palmer, Tennessee
(181) Baltimore Ravens - S Qwynterrio Cole, Alcorn State (182) San Francisco 49ers - WR Marquez Stevenson, Houston (183) Kansas City Chiefs - RB Pooka Williams, Kansas

Sixth Round

(184) Tennessee Titans - QB Shane Buechele, Texas (185) New York Jets - LB Paddy Fisher, Northwestern (186) Atlanta Falcons - G Aaron Banks, Notre Dame - Love the value here for the Falcons, and if they do have to cut James Carpenter, Banks could be a useful piece. (187) Houston Texans - iOL Jack Anderson, Texas Tech (188) Philadelphia Eagles - S JaCoby Stevens, LSU (189) Cincinnati Bengals - DT Khryis Tonga, BYU (190) Denver Broncos - DT Bobby Brown III, Texas A&M
(191) Dallas Cowboys - G Josh Sills, Oklahoma State (192) Carolina Panthers - DT Carlo Kemp, Michigan (193) San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Daelin Hayes - The 49ers showed a good deal of interest in Hayes at the Senior Bowl per reports. He'd be a nice depth option on the edge. (194) New England Patriots - CB Benjamin St.-Juste, Minnesota (195) New York Giants - CB Thomas Graham Jr., Oregon
(196) New England Patriots - G Tristen Hoge, BYU (197) Los Angeles Chargers - S Eric Burrell, Wisconsin (198) Minnesota Vikings - OT Alex Himmelman, Illinois State (199) Las Vegas Raiders - PICK FORFEITED (200) New York Giants - LB K.J. Britt, Auburn
(201) Houston Texans - DL Cameron Sample, Tulane (202) Las Vegas Raiders - WR Austin Watkins, UAB (203) Chicago Bears - OT Bryce Matthews, Ole Miss (204) Los Angeles Chargers - WR Isaiah McKoy, Kent State (205) Indianapolis Colts - WR Damon Hazelton, Missouri - This stretch of wide receivers looks like solid value, especially Hazelton in Reich's offense.
(206) Miami Dolphins - TE Kenny Yeboah, Ole Miss - Yeboah got to work with Miami's coaching staff at the Senior Bowl, so I'd imagine they have a good feel for his use. (207) Seattle Seahawks - DT Mustafa Johnson, Colorado (208) Los Angeles Rams - OT Robert Hainsey, Notre Dame (209) Baltimore Ravens - G Robert Jones, Middle Tennessee State (210) Cleveland Browns - CB Trill Williams, Syracuse
(211) Houston Texans - RB Jaret Patterson, Buffalo (212) Buffalo Bills - RB Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana (213) Green Bay Packers - WR Cade Johnson, South Dakota State (214) Pittsburgh Steelers - C Jimmy Morrissey, Pittsburgh (215) Tennessee Titans - S Aashari Crosswell, Arizona State
(216) Atlanta Falcons - LB Derrick Barnes, Purdue (217) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TE Quintin Morris, Bowling Green (218) Atlanta Falcons - OT Greg Eiland, Mississippi State (219) Philadelphia Eagles - RB Javian Hawkins, Louisville (220) Chicago Bears - EDGE Chris Rumph Jr., Duke
(221) Green Bay Packers - DE William King-Bradley, Baylor (222) Chicago Bears - S Shawn Davis, Florida (223) Minnesota Vikings - G Ben Brown, Ole Miss (224) Philadelphia Eagles - LB Grant Stuard, Houston

Seventh Round

(225) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Malik Herring, Georgia (226) San Francisco 49ers - TE Noah Gray, Duke (227) Houston Texans - CB Tre Brown, Oklahoma (228) Chicago Bears - LB Justin Hilliard, Ohio State (229) Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Elerson Smith, Northern Iowa (230) Philadelphia Eagles - WR Ben Skowronek, Northwestern
(231) Cincinnati Bengals - DT TaQuon Graham, Texas (232) Buffalo Bills - S Divine Deablo, Virginia Tech (233) Denver Broncos - S Damar Hamlin, Pittsburgh (234) Green Bay Packers - LB Riley Cole, South Alabama (235) Denver Broncos - WR Cornell Powell, Clemson
(236) San Francisco 49ers - WR Frank Darby, Arizona State (237) Los Angeles Chargers - DB Darrin Hall, San Diego State (238) Minnesota Vikings - WR Trevon Grimes, Florida (239) New England Patriots - DE Wyatt Hubert, Kansas State (240) Arizona Cardinals - OT Jaylon Moore, Western Michigan
(241) Washington Football Team - G Jake Curhan, California (242) Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Bryan Mills, North Carolina Central (243) Washington Football Team - RB Chris Evans, Michigan (244) Las Vegas Raiders - CB Mark Webb, Georgia (245) Indianapolis Colts - RB Larry Roundtree, Missouri
(246) Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Forrest Merrill, Arkansas State (247) New York Jets - WR Tre Walker, (248) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Joshua Kaindoh, Florida State (249) Los Angeles Rams - CB Bryce Thompson, Tennessee (250) Cleveland Browns - QB Brady White, Memphis
(251) Denver Broncos - EDGE Patrick Johnson, Tulane (252) New Orleans Saints - PICK FORFEITED (253) Green Bay Packers - DT Jack Heflin, Northern Illinois (254) Cleveland Browns - CB Nahshon Wright, Oregon State (255) Kansas City Chiefs - DT Kobie Whiteside, Missouri (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - WR Desmond Fitzpatrick, Louisville
You'll notice there are no special teams listed...mostly because I don't have a clue who needs a K/P/LS. That actually might be something useful to mention if you're team really needs someone.
Feel free to comment...I won't really be looking at them until next week, as I've spent too much time putting this together and now I need a break from this website. Just don't be a d*** is all I ask. It's shockingly hard for some people when it comes to internet mock drafts. Did this for fun, hope you had fun reading it.

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F2P-focused Summon Guide 4.0

Happy 2nd anniversary, everyone! Now that we have our first global-first character in Melissa, AS Tiramisu has released on the JP version, and we're getting close to the final few banners that my last guide managed to cover, its time I come out of my winter hibernation to make another one of these.
I should mention that, while these guides were always inherently very opinionated, that might be even more the case this time, because the guides I used as a sort of second opinion to bounce my impressions off of have sadly yet to update past Mistrare. As such, my main sources this time are limited to the unofficial wiki as well as altema.
Also, like last time, I will omit the whole spiel on normal banners vs. AS banners, general summon behavior, etc. for the sake of keeping this guide short and concise. However, if you're new, and you wanna know what I'm talking about, here is a link to my 2.0 guide.

So, lets address how these ratings work.
The ratings work the same as always in that the banners are rated under the assumption that you're an F2P-player who has none of the featured units. They're also sorted in the expected chronological release order, but if the whole thing with Yipha has shown us anything, its that WFS can throw us a curve ball any time they want. Its also still true that, due to ever-increasing powercreep, modern review-culture does not apply here: Instead of a 7/10 being average like you often see with videogame or movie reviews, a 5/10 represents a banner of average quality in this guide. This is so that, with all these powerful new units, my ratings don't turn into nothing but 9.5 and 10/10s, which would make rating them in the first place pointless.
With all that out of the way, lets get to the actual ratings (aka from here, there be spoilers!):
EDIT: Thanks to u_sdw4527, it was brought to my attention that I have missed some banners. I have now added them at the end of the guide.

The anniversary banner: 7.5/10 - We're starting off with the big one. Counting AS and NS forms as seperate, we're looking at 30 different 5 star units available, with no unfeatured 5 stars. However, there really aren't a lot of duds in here: Both forms of Isuka, AS Felmina, Hozuki, Toova and Mighty are very underwhelming nowadays (although even those, except Isuka, can be sidegraded to become at least decent, and at most incredibly strong) but every other character on this banner is at least okay, with some real powerhouses thrown into the mix as well. Its also worth noting that units that only have one 5 star version have their summon chance further increased (0.24%) compared to units with two seperate 5 star forms (0.13% per form), which works in the favor of the player because a lot of the units you'd want out of this banner like Mistrare, Victor or Myunfa only have one 5 star form and hence have their summon chance boosted further. It is however a VERY diluted banner due to the sheer number of units, and a lot of them are only decent, so its 'only' a 7.5.
Melissa/Premaya: 8.5/10 - I don't claim to be some sort of all-knowing god when it comes to this game, so when a character comes out that is new for EVERYONE, the banner gets a little harder to rate, but I truly think that Melissa is amazing. Not like, best character in the game, but I'm thinking top 20, MAYBE top 15 material. The 1TAF her new zone allows is gimmicky, but what makes her amazing is her insane utility: You can put her on ANY team and she will boost your damage and AF generation in the first turn, meaning you don't need to worry about switching your fastest character with your zone setter to get the zone active as soon as possible. And if that weren't enough already, her capable of inflicting break every second turn means you can just adjust the speed of your team with equipment so your strongest damage dealer goes after Melissa (and you put said damage dealer after her during AF), which essentially gives a 50% damage increase to that damage dealer (as their damage is being doubled every second turn) for free. Couple that with the absurd Nephrite Boost, and she is most likely optimal on wind zone. All in all, I think she is crazy good, and the only reason why this banner isn't rated higher is because Premaya drags it down a fair bit, being a good but definitely not great unit.
AS Rosetta: 8/10 - Nothing has changed for this banner since last time, but I'm giving it a slightly higher rating compared to last time because I think I undersold the relevance of AS Rosetta being the only magic zone setter in the game, and what getting her means for the viability of a lot of older staff wielding characters, in my last guide.
AS Hozuki/Biaka/Shannon: 8/10 - Despite u_xPalox' feedback left on my last guide, this would have still been an 8.5, but after a lot of consideration, its not the fact that both Biaka and Shannon are wind that made me rate the banner slightly lower, its that AS Hozuki is an AS unit whose OG is terrible to the point of basically being useless. And since a boatload of amazing AS units have released on the JP version since my last guide that can hang with or even surpass AS Hozuki, it became less likely that you'd make her your AS-upgrade goal over any of the other AS units that have come out on JP by now with limited chant scripts and the difficulty of getting treatises, assuming you land the 1.2% chance of pulling her 4.5 star version.
AS Ilulu: 5/10 - Now that Cress made slash zone an F2P zone, this banner has lost the slight rating boost that AS Ilulu being a slash zone setter gave it. As I said in the last guide, if you have a banner that features both one of the worst and one of the best characters in the game, you get a perfectly average banner.
AS Ewan/AS Laclair: 9.5/10 - AS Laclair becomes a beast after her manifest (guaranteed pain, int debuff, stacking water res debuff, wolf seal doesn't get consumed in AF, and a damage multiplier of up to 1300%), and AS Ewan is frankly insane. Like, in my opinion, 'best unit in the game' insane. This man is a jack of all trades done right: Team-wide priority phys and type res buff (which is a godsend with how mobs in more recent content have started becoming borderline impossible to outspeed and kill before they do damage) which also reduces MP consumption, an attack that is either really solid or straight-up absurd in terms of damage (I'm not sure if 'critical damage +100%' means 100% extra to the multiplier, or if the damage is doubled if he crits, would love input from the comments on that one), and that attack changes its damage type depending on in what attack type zone he is, which makes him a viable pick in 5/8 possible zones (not counting Melissa's), similar to Cynthia, only that AS Ewan is the WAY better unit. What is holding the banner back from being a straight-up 10 are Ewans only decent and Laclairs slightly underwhelming NS forms.
The weapon zone banner: 10/10 - I hope y'all didn't expect me to not give this a 10 just because we now have an F2P slash zone setter. The thing is, Cress lacking the usual end of turn buff leaves his slash zone significantly weaker compared to Radias' and AS Ilulu's, so if you can get your hands on one of them, they're still MILES better, even ignoring their individual skills. Anyways, for this banner, same thing applies that applied to the elemental zone banner back in the day: Only the 5 weapon zone setters and AS Ewan are featured, meaning the value of the banner drastically decreases with every featured unit you already have. Purely mathematically, you're better off summoning on this banner over a banner with normal rates if you have 2 or less of the featured units. I didn't include my calculations, but if you wanna see the numbers behind that statement, check out the zone banner rating in my last guide.
Mirusha/AS Nagi: 9/10 - I personally like this banner a LOT. If earth wasn't already pretty damn stacked in terms of F2P units, I'd give this a 9.5, because Mirusha is definitely top 15 characters in the game material (I mean, a shadow character who can offset the negative effects of her lunatic skill with a damage reduction ability? HELLO?), and AS Nagi has arguably aged like fine wine.
AS Hismena: 8.5/10 - NS has aged very well to the point that both I and the tier list agree she isn't that much worse than her AS, and the AS is REALLY good. I was very tempted to give this a 9, but its an 8.5 because the AS form has one big problem: If your goal is damage optimization, you're not gonna have a fun time using AS Hismenas skills during AF, as there is a LOT of annoying move-switching mid-AF required to get the most out of her. For that reason, I personally even prefer her NS.
Radica AS: 5/10 - Its the fire version of AS Ilulus conundrum: Her zone is already covered by an F2P unit, and while the AS is one of the best units in the game, the NS is one of the worst.
AS Miyu / AS Toova: 9.5/10 - Now thats what I call a banner. AS Miyu has arguably the best offensive team-wide buff in the entire game (even if its only the best for units with the miglance castle personality), while being a potentially insane damage dealer, getting up to a 1600% modifier at 8 distinctive buffs (keep in mind, boosts from equipment and grasta count as buffs) and 0 MP (again, keep in mind that, during AF, you can stay on that 0 MP and still use your skills), and AS Toova becomes arguably the offensively second strongest staff wielder in the game, all while still buffing staff wielders, debuffing power and int of all enemies, and buffing her own speed with her skills.
Ywera/AS Anabel: 9/10 - Of all the crystal characters, Ywera is probably the most offensively potent, being able to even outdamage AS Miyu during lunatic, potentially even by a lot (this is another character where it says '+xx% critical damage', in this case 50%, and I'm not sure if thats just extra percent to the damage multiplier if she crits, or if it means the move deals 1.5 damage when it crits), all while still coming with a crit rate and crit damage buff rolled into one skill. And well, AS Anabel is AS Anabel: Pretty wack outside of AF, a very strong beatstick in AF.
Dunarith AS: 8/10 - I will admit that I very well might be biased here, but I don't see the appeal in AS Dunarith enough to give his banner anything higher than an 8. Yes, he is a solid support for magic zone, and he can inflict permanent poison, but thats kinda it. His damage is lackluster since he consumes his Taufe stacks (which he needs to power up his strongest skill) when they're fully stacked, and half his support won't be THAT good even on a magic zone team since the staff wielder damage buff will stack with diminishing returns with the end of turn buff of AS Rosetta. And NS Dunarith, while certainly still good, is far from unique in his ability to provide team-wide guaranteed crits by now.
ES Melina: 8/10 - As hyped as I am for ES Melina, I'm hyped to upgrade her NS to her ES manually, I'm not hyped about trying to pull her. In a vacuum, this banner is alright: NS Melina has aged considerably but is still totally usable, and ES Melina is another unit I'd consider top 15 in the game. But when compared to some of the banners that will release shortly before and shortly after this one, it just isn't worth your stones unless you already pulled something from Yweras banner and you still want another usable addition to your water zone team.
AS Shigure: 6.5/10 - AS Shigure is really good, being a potentially insane damage dealer (though you have to make sure you can do 7 (or at least 6) seperate attacks in one turn the turn before you AF with him, and... hell if I know how to do that on a water or a slash zone team), and being the first unit whose VC is both an attacking and zone-setting VC (and the zone is set BEFORE the attack triggers, meaning you get both the extra damage and extra AF building on that VC attack), but NS Shigure is just... like, not Ilulu or Radica bad, but still pretty damn bad.
AS Tiramisu: 9.5/10 - We've reached the final banner currently released on the JP version, and its another banger. I think the gospel of NS Tiramisu has been sung enough on this sub that you all know how good she is, but sadly, we don't fully know how good her AS is yet because she only just released, and at least I wasn't able to find concrete damage multipliers for her new skills. However, we do know what her abilities do, and they're... good if a little specific (as she seems to be made to specifically support earth pierce units, even if she does also work for general earth units to a lesser degree). Regardless of that though, the fact alone that she FINALLY is the second earth zone setter in the game makes this a must pull for any F2P player that doesn't have Myunfa, because of how many really strong F2P earth units there are. And if you're in that boat but you don't wanna spend too many stones on her: As soon as you pull even just the 4.5 star version, you can call it a day and then make her your AS-upgrade goal.

So, turns out I missed the new years banners that JP got. Last time JP got new years banners, we did eventually get them as well considerably later, but since we don't know when they'll come out for us, I'm gonna put their ratings down here at the bottom.

Blunt banner (ES Melina, AS Ewan, Yipha, Myunfa, Felmina): 10+/10 - Yeah I'm guessing its no suprise to anyone that these banners are REALLY good. And we're starting off with the best of the bunch: Except for Myunfa, these are literally the best characters for a blunt zone team in the game, and while putting Myunfa on a blunt team is redundant since her and Yipha cover basically the same ground, Myunfa is still the best earth zone setter even now that AS Tiramisu is a thing. And not to mention, AS Ewan can be put on any weapon zone team, making this banner shine even more compared to the other weapon zone-specific banners that follow. This is basically a perfect banner. However (and this goes for all 4 of these banners), while they have an increased featured rate at 5%, 1% for each featured unit, if the last new years banners are anything to go by, these banners work the same as the general weapon zone banner that comes out with AS Ewan: No other 5 star units are available on the banner, meaning the value quickly drops off the more units you already have on the banner.
Slash banner (AS Ilulu, AS Miyu, Victor, AS Renri, AS Tsukiha): 9/10 - As you can probably tell, the main reason why this is 'only' a 9 is because slash is already an F2P zone, and also because there are a boatload of good F2P slash units already. Also, having either AS Renri or AS Tsukiha kind of disincentivises you to go for the other, since they have the same attack type and element, while filling the exact same role of a decent damage dealer that also guarantees crits for the team, the main difference being that Renri leans towards damage more while Tsukiha is a bit more of a support unit. So, pulling one of them makes pulling the other one not THAT great. Still obviously a fantastic banner though.
Pierce banner (AS Foran, Ywera, Yukino, AS Hismena, AS Ciel): 10/10 - My only gripe with this banner is that I personally don't like AS Hismena a whole lot, but that doesn't mean this isn't easily a 10/10. Matter of fact, if this banner had featured another zone setter alongside AS Foran, like what the blunt and magic banners did, or if they had switched out AS Hismena for someone like Mistrare or Mirusha, this would have been another 10+, its that close.
Magic banner (AS Rosetta, AS Dunarith, AS Radica, AS Myrus, AS Mighty): 9.5/10 - Sadly, WFS felt the need to put AS Mighty on this banner. don't get me wrong, he isn't terrible, but he just can't compete with all the other units featured on these 4 banners. Couple that with the fact that I think AS Dunarith is WAY overhyped by the tier list, and this would have been another 9. What made it a 9.5 is AS Radica: Yes, her zone is already covered by an F2P unit, but she is LEAGUES better as a zone setter compared to AS Gariyu (or Hardy, for that matter), her end of turn buff providing healing and MP recovery instead of just buffing her own fire attack and no one elses like Gariyu does, AND she is the first and so far only unit in the game that can provide guaranteed crits to both physical attacks and to magic, and I'm willing to bet my bottom dollar that that makes her one of the most future-proof units in the game.

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Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Predictions | Buy or Sell AAPL? Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Target & Analysis

Should you buy Apple stock or has the company run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Apple in the next years? Read until the end as I reveal my price target for Apple and also what I think will happen in the next couple of days, weeks & months!
~ Warning! Very Very Long Post~
Hello everyone! So, let’s go over some of the latest news on Apple before moving on to some fundamental and technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years.
So, let’s start with the news that Apple will cut the App Store commission in half for small app developers starting in the next days, this will affect developers who earn less than $1M annually from the App Store Sales. This is likely to lead to a small decline in commission revenues for Apple as around 98% of the app developers will qualify for this tax reduction from 30% to 15%, but all these small developers only contribute to about 5% of the estimated $50B in annual revenues from the App Store, so that would be only a $1.25B loss for the company, that is less than half a % of the company’s total net sales in the last fiscal year.
Also, these changes may lead to a potential long-term revenue boost, as it is likely this will lead to an increasing creation of apps which will generate more commissions in return.
Alongside this we also saw the company releasing the new MacBook’s with their first in-house chip, which promises faster video and imaging processing times, with both CPU and GPU performance up to 2 times faster than the latest PC laptop chip using just a fraction of the power consumption, with both of the macbooks promising big improvements in battery life. Apple is also expected to roll out even more in-house chips in future products, as they have started the 2-year breakup with Intel chips.
We also saw Morgan Stanley upgrading their base case to $191 at the end of November, as they have cited record lead times, supply chain forecasts and carriers demand as they expect that the company will sell around 270M iPhone in fiscal year 2021, that’s 50M more than the consensus and almost 30M more than the previous estimate of Morgan Stanley, with an average selling price of 842$, 9% more than the base case, as people tend to chose the more expensive and high tech versions of the lineup in this new 5G cycle.
The 5G super-cycle, which I believe is on the way, and will continue in the next years, as 5G become more available worldwide, could still be the biggest thing coming right away for the company with 5G smartphones expected to surpass 4G sales by 2024, with the average sale price of the 5G phones also coming down, helping them become more popular. This will also be helped by the recent entry to the Indian market, as India will probably become the world biggest country in the next decade, this could be a huge opportunity for Apple to start and take away market-share from their competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi which have the biggest market shares right now.
They also released an update iPad Pro and an all-new iPad Air in September which will also boost sales in this work-from-home environment that will keep the demand very high for this kind of products, just like the Macs. Alongside the increasing demand from the Wearables, Home & Accessories that include Air Pods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and many more products.
But the biggest reasons I believe Apple is poised for continued growth, is primarily due to its services business, as they start to offer more and more services like the Apple ONE BUNDLE, which include up to 6 services from (Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, the new Apple Fitness+ and the iCloud service) for a pretty reasonable price in my opinion starting from 15$ up to 30$/month, this could be a great option for families and even individuals who use their services a lot.
The latest services, Fitness+ just launched in the past days, and is a direct competitor to the likes of Peloton, as the service is available on the iPhone, iPad or even Apple TV. This also makes consumers buy the Apple Watch which syncs to the other devices to show you different information. The Fitness+ app just on its own is 8$/month or 80$/year which is less expensive than Peloton subscription which charges 13$ or even traditional gyms like Planet Fitness at 10$/month.
I think this will be the fastest growing sector for the company, as this aligns with the new macro trends, as the world is moving more and more to a digital approach to almost everything as consumer preferences, with more & more younger people reaching the point in life when they use these services start to align to this increasing digital approach.
We also shouldn’t forget the Apple Card & Apple Pay service among many others which also seem to gain from the move to digital & contactless payments, as this has been accelerated due to the current situation in the past year.
And one last piece of news, and the most recent one, is that Apple may have fast-tracked the Titan project. The Titan project is targeting a 2024 or 2025 push to develop an electric vehicle with advanced battery technologies, that will deliver significant increases in range at much lower costs than the current technologies while also offering self-driving capabilities.
It’s reported they will not use the same technology as Tesla Full-Self-Driving feature, but will use LIDAR sensors, similar to those that we can find in the latest iPhone 12 PRO.
I think Apple can go 2 ways with this project, they can either use the huge amount of cash the company has to buy another car-maker like Ford, GM or any other car manufacturer expect Tesla and Toyota which do have a big market cap, so that they can fast-track the potential manufacturing of cars, or they can enter into a partnership with big companies like Tesla, Volkswagen or any other car marker to either produce cars or license their technology to this other car-makers which would ultimately and probably have higher margin-returns than the effective manufacturing of cars. Apple’s current overall gross margins stand at 38% vs the 15% average of the world top 10 automakers by market cap, which is significantly lower.
But this Apple Car thing is so far out, and there are so many unknowns, I will not try to predict anything related to this until there is more clarity on the subject.
And last, before moving on to some predictions, here are some of the highlights that we heard from the latest investors conference meeting, as the CEO, Tim Cook expressed optimism ahead with the launch of many new products and services, especially the Home Pod Mini and the new 5G iPhones, as these new iPhones include new LIDAR scanners that greatly improve the camera capabilities, as the iPhone as seen very positive reviews. We also saw the Senior VP and CFO, Luca Maestri give us great outlook for the company as they expect the installed devices base to continue to growth despite already being at an all-time high as they have over 585M paid subscriptions on their platforms and expect this to surpass 600M by the end of 2020.
I also researched and found what products we can see in the near future, with the first half of 2021 bringing new iMacs, the AirPods3 and the iPad Pro, while in the FALL event we will probably get the new iPhone 13 alongside the iPhone SE PLUS and the Watch Series 7 with more products coming later in 2021 or that don’t have an estimated release date like the Air Pods Pro, the Air Tags and the iPad Mini 6.
So, before even starting, you should know that I am bull on Apple but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below.
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research.
This are my 2025 projections for Apple, let’s take a closer look at them, each on their own.
So, in term of revenues, Apple has 5 big sources of income, which saw an overall increase of 6% despite lagging sales in the iPhone. The biggest revenue is by far the iPhone right now with over $137B in revenue in the fiscal year ending in September. I expect to see the iPhone sales increasing in the next years, especially in 2021, with the new 5G iPhone creating a super-cycle for the company, as most iPhone users, including myself here, as I will upgrade from my iPhone X, will switch to this new product. The iPhone sales have decreased in the last couple of years by 14% and 3% as a result of the product not having big improvements, as well as iPhone usually starting to last longer than previous models, so I expect to see a 12% increase in sales next year and a gradual decrease in the growth of sales as more people upgrade, ending with just a 5% growth in iPhone sales in 2025.
The next revenues stream is from the Mac, which has seen an increase in the past 2years, with revenues topping $28B this year after the huge demand from the work from home consumers. I expect this trend to continue as they plan to continue to launch better products and I can see the company having a similar growth next year before starting to decline slightly until 2025, also ending with a 5% growth.
The iPad is currently the smallest revenue stream for Apple but has also seen an increase in demand in the past 2 years with a 13% average increase in revenues. I also expect the iPad to continue to grow in the next couple of years, especially with the learn-from-home environment for kids, and even after this period ends, the transformation for learning will implicate more digital usage. I expect the iPad to see some similar growth to the Macs, especially with the latest generation also bringing a new iPad air to the market.
The 4th revenue stream and the fastest growing in the past 2 years, with an average growth of 33% are the wearables, home & accessories revenues. This have topped $30B this year, as Apple has also just launched the Apple Watch series 6 and also feature other great products like Apple TV, the Air Pods the Home Pod and the Home Pod mini alongside other third-party accessories.
I gave this revenue stream a growth of 20% starting next year with a gradual decrease to around 8% by 2025, as I believe this will become more & more popular as they start to offer more vertical integration.
And last, but by no means least, the revenue stream that I expect to grow the most and the fastest is the revenue from the services that Apple offers. This includes revenues from Apple Care, Advertising, Cloud Services, Payment Services like Apple Card & Apple Pay and of course the digital content which includes fees from the App Store alongside subscription-based income including the new Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ alongside the already know Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and hopefully I don’t forget any others.
So, I expect this to become the clear 2nd biggest revenue stream for Apple by 2025, as I expect this to grow more than 20% next year, mainly due to the Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ followed up by a slightly decreasing growth, ending with a 10% increase in revenues in 2025.
I think this are fairly conservative base case scenarios for the revenues, as I expect them to continue to increase the other revenue streams and not have such a large percentage of the revenues coming from the iPhone sales as you can see in this chart.
In terms of expenses, I pretty much kept the same margins as in previous years, with a 68% expense ratio on product sales [ iPhone / iPad / Mac / WHA ] and 35% expense ratio on SERVICES, as this are way more lucrative.
In the past 3 years, the products gross margin was 32.7%, so I actually imply bigger expenses for the manufacturing and sales of products, as this is mostly impacted by the company’s supplier’s ability to make up for and demand, while for the services revenue, the gross margins for the last 3 years has been 63.5% on average, but I expect this to be more in-line with the 66% margin in this past year. So, if services manage to grow to about half the revenues from the iPhone, this will effectively double the gross revenues, as every buck gained in the service revenues account for 2$ in the product sales.
So, I expect the total revenues for Apple to increase from $274B in 2020 to over $440B by 2025, increasing by approximately 10%/year, while I will keep the expense ratio pretty much in-line and have them increasing by 11%/year, this would bring the total gross income for Apple to $177B, increasing mainly due to the services revenues as I said earlier. This growth is just above the 4year average, and below the 2018 levels, which we might see again with this 5G super-cycle and explosive growth in the services revenue.
I also think the company will continue to invest in both Capital Expenditure and Operating expenses.
I think the operating expenses will remain pretty much in line with the previous years, as this number has increased by 1% annually both in R&D and SG&A. So, I will keep the exact percentages from previous years, as I expect the revenue to increase, thus I don’t see a big increase percentage wise. This would account for over $60B in operating expenses by 2025 and over $11B in Capital Expenditures by 2025, as I expect this to increase, mainly due to the possible EV developments or investments in self-driving capabilities alongside other manufacturing capabilities. You can see that the Capex spending has been decreasing in the past years with just over $8.8B in payments for business acquisitions and the other traditional Capex spending. Some people may use the cash generated by investing activities as Capex, but that is more unreliable. I also can see the Capex going back up, so I wanted to be safe and implied a 10% growth.
This money would account for over $73B in expenses and would bring the profit for the company to almost $104B before interest and taxes.
Moving on, let’s see what interest income and expenses the company has had in the past few years. We can see a decrease in interest expense in the past few years as the company has been paying off debt, but they have also been generating less money in this department, with an overall decrease in this department of more than 50% in the past year, way less than the amount from 2018. So, for safety reasons, I used a 10% decline in both income and expenses related to interest, while increasing the other losses by 10%/year.
This would bring the company pre-tax income to just over $104B in 2025.
Let’s move on to taxes. I know the Federal income tax rate is 21% for the company, but the actual effective tax rate for the company was lower than 15% in the past year, mainly due to lower tax-rates on foreign earnings alongside tax-benefits and tax-settlements. The average effective tax rate has been just over 16% in the past 3 years, but with more and more of the revenues coming from outside the US, I think it’s safe to say that the company will have around a 15% effective tax rate by 2025, this obviously if nothing major changes in tax policy around the world.
So, Apple would have $88.6B in income after tax by 2025 and with the current outstanding shares standing at just under 17B, so I don’t even account for the company probably continuing to do share buybacks, this would mean a $5.22 future earnings/share. And with today’s price for Apple just around 136$, that would mean to company is trading at just over 26 times forward price to earnings.
I don’t think Apple will ever trade at a discount again, with the current PE standing at over 40, I believe this will eventually go down, probably to around 35, despite the increase in services revenue, which is highly valued by investors. I think we can see Apple trade somewhere near 35 times P/E in 2025, especially if something big happens with the EV project, this could be even higher, just look at Tesla which trades at insane P/E. Of course, we also have to take into consideration the dividends that will be received from owning the stock, as Apple has started to pay dividends almost a decade ago and has 9 years of dividend growth, with a 10% annual rate of growth in the past 5 years. Here is the dividend growth history for the company, as I also went conservative on this estimate and implied a 7% growth for the next 2 years, 6% for 2023 and 2024 and just 5% in 2025.
So here are my 3 price targets for the company, including dividends but not reinvested. My bear case scenario is that Apple will trade at almost 165$ which implies a return of over 21% by 2025, while my base case scenario would see Apple trading at 195$ with a return of capital of 43%. I will also make the bull case for Apple trading at 225$ by 2025 with dividends included, which would imply just over 65% in gains by then.
I think this is possible as Apple has also continued to buy back shares of the company on a constant basis, as they continue to an impressive campaign with over $72B worth of common stock repurchased in 2020. They continue to buy back shares at a very fast pace, having repurchased over 1.3B shares in 2019 and 2018, while also issuing less stock every year.
So here is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Apple by 2025 and the breakdown of everything i estimated [ 1 / 2 ] , if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Apple has had in the last 5years. The company has increased in value by more 400% in just the past 5years and is over 100.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against Apple?
The company also has pristine financials, with more than $65B in total assets compared to total liabilities, and more than $38B in cash and cash equivalents.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Apple?
Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the stock split, Apple saw a correction within the September stock market pullback, in a buy the news & sell the event, after a huge runup post-announcement of the stock split. The stock entered a consolidation period, and didn’t have any big catalysts, especially with new iPhone lineup not being included in the Q4 results due to the late launch. The stock found some levels of resistance near the $120 levels that it struggled to get past but acted also as support after breaking them just before the recent news of the possible EV developments or self-driving-features to be licensed to other car manufacturers. After that news the stock spiked and has now reached the previous highs made before the stock split and is facing some resistance, if the stock pushes over $140 I think we can officially say that it broke the resistance at those levels and is not just a fake-out. But I think it’s likely that the stock will consolidate between 122 and 135$ in the next weeks until the next iPhone sales and quarterly results are released, as the stock has entered overbought territory again with an RSI over 70, the first time since the stock split.
So, what would I do? Well, I own Apple stock, and I really believe this company will remain the biggest or one of the biggest in the future, so I would really add on any weakness that the stock shows before the next quarter earnings are released, as typically Q1 earnings are the best for the company due to increased holiday sales combined with the launch of new products. I think any entry below 130$ would be really nice to start and build a position or increase it if you already own the stock. As I believe Apple is one of the most stable stocks out there with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Berkshire owning over 900M shares each.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!

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Data-Driven DD: I analyzed 265,000 rows of SEC Short Fails-to-Deliver data so you don't have to! (Extremely important data for Counterfeit Stock theories)

The GME SEC Data and Hedge Fund Shitfuckery: A Deep Dive

TLDR: the cumulative Fails-to-Deliver volume on GME is massive compared to the rest of the market. However, is also extremely volatile, and small compared to the float. It is possible that high Fails-to-Deliver volume is a result of massive illegal share counterfeiting by shorts.

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Real Madrid vs. Real Betis- La Liga, 12/Mar/17

My mom left me a set of tapes to watch after she died.