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MODS ARE GAY

STOP CHANGING THINGS AND ADDING TWITTER AND SHIT
MAKE WALLSTREETBETS GREAT AGAIN
EDIT: For those that missed it, there was a conspiracy post on the sub warning that the big boys were trying to shut us down and the Twitter handle was a big excuse, it claimed that Citron paid off the WSB mods. Who knows how true it is, but an hour later WSB goes dark🤷🏻‍♂️
The theory (thanks SoldCarForGasMoney): https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:U-rkMkH78tgJ:https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l2ejas/gme_the_truth_behind_cramer_the_news_melvin/+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
This has always been the fall back sub for when WSB mods are jerking off, automod makes a daily thread.
EditEdit: Check the Top 2 all-time posts on this sub then notice they have different dates.

EDITEDITEDIT: SEC HAS TAKEN DOWN WSB AS PER @wsbmod TWTR

People are saying the SEC didn’t take it down - I don’t know, i’m just some guy - but that’s what @wsbmod is saying.
-EVERYTHING UNDER THIS IS BULLSHIT- You’re retarded for believing whatever you read online
editx4: I’ve been told one of the mods are an illegal immigrant and ICE has taken them in.
Editx5: Two mods released a sex tape on @wsbmod that was promptly taken down, subreddit was seized in response for “vulgarity and retardism.”
Edit6: Zjz has seen a site-wide ban by Reddit according to his Twitter, it is unknown if he is in legal trouble.
deepfuckingvalue has been contacted by the authorities about pumping a stock
(Source, his YT: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xfr64zoBTAQ)
EDITx7: One of the mods was found out to be WSBGOD, he apparantly downloaded a VPN and had someone promote him.

EDITx8: GME is issuing Melvin enough to cover his shorts in a direct offering @ $20/share. Citron is not being offered shares.

Editx9: SEC IS CONSIDERING LIMITING OPTIONS TRADING TO ACCOUNTS WITH 25k+ AS RETAIL TRADERS ARE “USING IT TO EXPLOIT BANKS”
Edit 10x: Elon musk has purchased Reddit as the richest man in the world and is converting the sub to musk street bets starting at open tomorrow

WSB is back. The last few edits were fake you fucking morons, read the tenth paragraph.

TL;DR: vaping, marijuana, Michael Burry, low as fuck IV, hugely under-valued company 🚀🚀🚀
\Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is not investment advice. All information stated in this post is my own opinion, and some information may be unknowingly inaccurate or outdated. Please do your own due diligence before investing your money. I currently hold a long position on various Altria LEAPs.**
Nicotine products have been in continuous use in North America for thousands of years [1]. Upon the arrival of the Spanish to the New World, tobacco use spread rapidly throughout the globe, becoming hugely popular not only across Europe, but also in far-flung Asia and the Ottoman Empire. The only comparable product to conquer the world so thoroughly is the ubiquitous, similarly addictive, mighty coffee bean.
By the 1900's, smoking had become a huge commercial enterprise. Glitz and glam surrounded the tobacco industry. All of your Grandmother's favorite actors smoked [2]. Many high schools had smoking lounges for the students (of course, your Nana still regularly snuck out behind the bleachers to have a private puff with the quarterback). Nicotine use was a normal and accepted part of life.
We are all, of course, familiar with the rest of the story. Studies came out showing just how damaging cigarette usage was on the human body. Campaigns were begun, laws were enacted, and Big Tobacco became Public Enemy #1 [3]
Fast forward to today. For the past few decades, despite decreasing cigarette volumes, the tobacco industry has remained immensely profitable. Big players in the cigarette industry have been able to compensate for declining cigarette volumes by raising prices. Cash flows from cigarette smoking have never been higher. Yet looking at the stock market performance of the tobacco industry over the past 5 years, you would think that the industry was on life support.
No company has lately fared worse than Altria ($MO). Despite growing income at a 5.9% CAGR since 2017 amid a backdrop of stabilizing declines in cigarette consumption [4], the company's stock remains 45% off its 2017 high. Much of the underperformance can be attributed to investors losing confidence in the company's management after a series of questionable investment decisions, including taking a 35% stake in JUUL, a 45% stake in Chronos (a Canadian marijuana company), and a 10% stake in Anheuser-Busch.
These investments have performed poorly over the past few years. High-profile teen deaths from illicit THC vaping products were widely linked to JUUL usage by our sensationalist media [5], causing Altria to write-down its initial $12B investment in JUUL to a value of only ~$2B today. The bubble in the marijuana stock market popped in 2018, causing a 30% reduction in the value of Altria's Chronos stake. And the rise of the craft beer industry has continued to weigh on the profitability of Anheuser-Busch.
Despite the short-term pitfalls, I will argue that it is reasonable to believe that Altria has positioned itself very well for the future. And with all of these factors weighing down the stock over the past few years, I believe $MO is ripe for a turnaround.
I have a 2023 price target for $MO of $90 which, given the low IV Altria enjoys, implies a 30x (3,000%) return on MO Jan 2023 65c LEAPs.
My thesis relies on four key beliefs:
​

1. The company's core business is under-valued
2. Vaping will see a resurgence as a less-harmful alternative to cigarettes
3. Altria is poised to win big if marijuana is federally legalized
4. Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management is heavily invested in $MO

1) The Company's core business is under-valued
Altria enjoys a stunningly low forward P/E of 8.7 and a stunningly high dividend yield of 8.1% [6]. Various online discounted cash flow analyses of Altria give it an intrinsic value between $62-$72 [7] [8]. These analyses are very conservative in that they only take into account Altria's current business, which is predominantly smokeable tobacco products.
There are also bright spots in Altria's miscellaneous businesses that these DCF models don't account for, such as the fast-growing "on!" line of nicotine pouches, or the likely reinstatement of Anheuser-Busch's dividend after it was paused last year due to Covid.
We'll ignore these bright spots for now and give Altria's core business a conservative price target of $65.
2) Vaping will see a resurgence as a less-harmful alternative to cigarettes
\Please note: I am not a doctor. All health claims made in this post reflect only my own opinions.**
Nicotine has gotten a bad rap in the past 50 years, but on its own there isn't much research I've seen to suggest it's any more dangerous than caffeine. The big problem with nicotine is simply the delivery mechanism. Smoking large amounts of anything is bad for your lungs. Vaping exposes your lungs to far fewer ancillary chemicals in much smaller doses than traditional smoking. For instance, Michael Blaha, M.D., M.P.H., director of clinical research at the Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, says about vaping “there’s almost no doubt that they expose you to fewer toxic chemicals than traditional cigarettes.” [9]
Altria surveyed the landscape in 2017 and determined that acquiring a stake in JUUL was its best way to position itself for the future. Since then, JUUL's name has been dragged through the mud and associated with many teen deaths. However, these deaths were later determined to be caused by unauthorized THC products unlinked to JUUL [10]. JUUL's case for harm reduction in the nicotine space is still intact.
The FTC filed an anti-trust case recently attempting to block Altria's stake in JUUL [11]. This case is due to be heard this spring. The uncertainty around JUUL's future has weighed on $MO, but in my opinion all outcomes of this case are positive:
1) Altria is forced to divest its stake in JUUL
This is not ideal, but as part of the JUUL acquisition, Altria agreed to not compete in the vaping space against JUUL. If Altria is forced to divest, it can capitalize on the recent decline in the quality and brand value of JUUL (just check out juul to see the declining sentiment around the brand) to bring its own high-quality product onto the market.
2) Altria is allowed to keep its stake in JUUL
In this case, Altria can capitalize on JUUL's troubles by acquiring a larger stake in the company at a discount. Altria can then flood JUUL with the cash it needs to help rebuild its quality and brand. This is the ideal case in my opinion, for both JUUL and Altria.
Setting aside JUUL for the moment, Altria has the exclusive rights to distribute in the USA Phillip Morris's FDA-approved IQoS product [12]. This is a "heat not burn" product that is more similar to existing cigarettes than vaping, but still reduces the number of harmful chemicals inhaled. This product is already popular in Europe and Japan, and is just beginning to be marketed in the USA. One major advantage of this product is that it produces no smoke, and so may potentially end up being allowed in restaurants, bars, and offices.
3) Altria is poised to win big if marijuana is federally legalized
Altria is the one company with the regulatory experience and distribution networks necessary to gain substantial market share in the nascent marijuana industry. Altria has been quietly filing patent after patent for THC and CBD vaping devices [13]. In fact, people in the fledgling marijuana industry are so worried about Altria's entry into the market that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, when speaking about his upcoming federal legalization bill, recently said "I don’t want to see these big tobacco companies coming in and shoving everyone out" [14]. (Note however that, while this position may play well with Senator Schumer's base for now, having a marijuana industry that is run by well-established and responsible companies is ultimately the best outcome for public health, and so it is unlikely that any steps will be taken to bar Altria from competing in the free market of marijuana products).
4) Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management is heavily invested in $MO
Would this really be WallStreetBets if I didn't mention Michael Burry? Burry's fund Scion Asset Management had 5% of its portfolio in $MO as of Q3 2020, making Altria its 13th largest holding [[15](https://dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=SAM). For context, this is about half the weight that Michael Burry's fund had in GameStop during the same quarter.
If nothing else, this is a good sanity check on the analysis here.
Summary
In summary, it's likely that the true value of Altria's core business is closer to $65 than the current price of $43. Add on top of that the potential for success in the vaping category, and the potential for growth into the marijuana market, and it is easy to see $MO adding an additional 20-30B in market cap to reach a price of $90 by 2023.
IV for 2023 LEAPs sits at ~20%. MO Jan 2023 65c's are currently priced at $0.77. If Altria reaches $90 by 2023, these options will be worth at least $25. This would represent a >3,100% return.
For this reason, I believe that Altria LEAPs represent a unique opportunity for asymmetric upside. Please let me know your thoughts below, I'd appreciate counter-arguments that highlight any flaws in the reasoning outlined above.