Political Betting & Odds | Bet on Elections - William Hill

Pretty much every day a new poll will be released which we'll all analyse to death, that's fine but I also feel we'll get value from the betting markets.
Most major sites give over and under odds on the number of seats each party will win in the election which, theoretically, represents their best guess. It's not perfect and betting trends will effect these numbers but the betting companies will want to be as accurate as possible, they stand to lose a lot of money if they're wrong. So what are the betting sites saying?
I've only started tracking the odds today but when I looked last week they were predicting the Tories to get around 326 seats, that's gone down already. Skybet gives the Tories the most credit with 323.5 seats, the lowest is Betfair and Paddy Power with 317.5. the average across the 6 sites I'm tracking in 320.
Betfair is an outlier for Labour at 237.5 seats, the rest range from 212.5 to 221.5. Betfair seem to believe that the LDs are going to fade and aren't going to take seats off of Labour, they have them at 25.5, the other sites range from 37.5 to 42.5.
Interestingly every site agrees on both the SNP and the Brexit Party, the SNP are on 50.5 and the BXP are on 0.5 on every site that offers odds (William hill don't on the SNP and BXP and Ladbrokes don't on the BXP).
I'm going to track these odds over the next few weeks and see if they're are any trends.
Edited to fix typo

Authored by Dog Kass via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
White House Politics:
(When asked what he wanted to give thanks for during a press gaggle Thanksgiving Thursday, Trump responded), “_for having a great family and for having made a tremendous difference in this country. I’ve made a tremendous difference in the country. This country is so much stronger now than it was when I took office that you wouldn’t believe it… And I mean, you see, but so much stronger people can’t even believe it. When I see foreign leaders they say we cannot believe the difference in strength between the United States now and the United States two years ago.” _– President Trump (Comments on Thanksgiving)
Policy:
_“You only think I guessed wrong! … You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders – the most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia” – but only slightly less well-known is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!” _– Vizzini,The Princess Bride
The Economy:
“The missing step in the standard Keynesian theory (is) the explicit consideration of capitalist finance within a cyclical and speculative context… finance sets the pace for the economy. As recovery approaches full employment… soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been banished (and) debts can be taken on. But in truth neither the boom nor the debt deflation… and certainly not a recovery can go on forever. Each state nurtures forces that lead to its own destruction.” _–_ Hyman Minsky
The Markets:
“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end.” _–_Seneca the Elder
Contrary to the expectations of many (including myself), the uncertainties following the surprising Trump presidential election victory, which produced a number of possible outcomes (some of them adverse), was enthusiastically embraced by investors in 2017 and in the first month of this year. A market on steroids was not a conclusion or forecast by any mainstream Wall Street forecaster that year. There was no sell side strategist who expected equities would rise anywhere near the 20%+ gains in the major indices recorded in 2017, nor do I know any who predicted that the S&P Index would make more than 70 individual highs a year ago.
As I expected, that enthusiasm continued in and through most of the month of January, 2018. But, after a year of historically low volatility and ever-rising stock prices, the bullish consensus became troubled as the complexion of the market changed throughout most of 2018 .
As I noted in last year’s commentary, I thought that the biggest surprise in 2018 would be that extrapolation of the market uptrend didn’t work after many years of working, and that we will witness the emergence of multiple non-consensus developments, including:

• A dramatic drop in the price of bitcoin (to under $2,000)- A devastating decline in many bitcoin collateral plays- A much higher oil price- A slowing (not expanding) rate of economic domestic growth as the tax bill “trickles up,” not down- A mean reversion higher in volatility- The bursting of the global short volatility bubble which serves up a 20% drop in equities (aided by both weaker earnings results and lower valuations).- And, of course, I anticipated that there would be an abundance of surprises in the fertile political arena with the incalculable Orange Swan at the helm in Washington, D.C., and in his role as the “Supreme Tweeter.”“Expect the unexpected and, whenever possible, be the unexpected.” – _Kurt Vonnegut, Breakfast of Champions_As we enter 2019, the scent of_ “Group Stink_” is still thick despite a heady list of multiplying uncertainties. Nevertheless, while the _Bull Market in Complacency_ has been pierced in October, 2018, most market forecasts remain optimistic.

Warren Buffett once observed that a bull market_ “is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.'” _While some of us in the ursine crowd debate whether the investment orgasm has already passed, in the extreme it finally may be Minsky’s Moment and year after nine years of recovery and prosperity following _The Great Recession._This year I have decided to publish my _“Surprise List”_ a bit earlier than usual.
As you all know, my Surprises are what I term to be _Probable Improbables_ – events that have a greater possibility of occurring than are seen by the consensus. I try to make you think apart from that diabolically dangerous_ “Group Stink”_ and, particularly as it relates to politics (but with other subjects as well), I feel that I should offend you at least once, or I am not doing my job. But, any offense is meant in the spirit of the great Romantic poet William Blake who taught us that “_Opposition is true friendship._”
My Surprises are shorter in length than in previous years. _(I want to quickly get to the important points of the Surprise List – available on one or two pages – rather than deliver a more flowery prose and bunch of stories that I have commonly done in the past)._We will start the new investment year about one month from now with a completely different _“feeling”_ of previous years – as I mentioned previously, the complexion of Mr. Market seems to have changed:

• Investors (retail and institutional), previously comfortable being among the herd of optimism, are beginning to panic.- The dominant investors of the decade – Exchange Traded Funds and Quantitative Strategies and Products (e.g. risk parity) – are selling into weakness (just as they bought into strength) – serving to overwhelm active investors.- Hedge funds are completing another unfavorable year in which their investment performance is poor. Against a backdrop of a high fee structure (at a time in which passive management fees are “moving to zero” ) – redemptions are growing and even some of the most competent managers are hanging up their spikes and closing down.- Public companies, in some measure to increase the value of their stock options) who have gone on a massive buying streak of their own securities (propping up stocks and nominal EPS at the expense of building their businesses and improving productivity) may begin to get second thoughts as stocks founder and interest rates have risen.- The two “shiny objects” crypto currency and FANG – revered and hyped by the many – is likely having a more profound impact on the herd’s newly found negative sentiment than many realize.- Global economic growth prospects continue to grow more ambiguous – with the schmeissing of the price of crude oil another warning and conspicuous signpost of a broadening slowdown.- The Federal Reserve has made a profoundly important change from easing to restraint._“In ambiguous situations, it’s a good bet that the crowd will generally stick together — and be wrong.” _– Doug Sherman and William Hendricks

The core themes and roadmap for 2019 is that a standard run-of-the-mill Bear Market may run into something bigger in a year enveloped in unprecedented political turmoil (and electorate disgust and anger), an escalating trade (and cold) war with China and continuing global economic disappointments — dragging down a mature, an extended and fully exploited economic growth and market cycle.
Not surprisingly, my Surprise is that a slightly down year of performance for the S&P Index in 2018 may turn out to be something worse in 2019.
But the biggest and most provocative surprise is the decline and fall of President Trump in 2019 – in which an anti-imperial rebalancing is successfully mounted by a more assertive Congress, bringing the country back into constitutional equilibrium.
Without further fuss, here are my outside of consensus 15 Surprises for 2019:
1) A U.S. Recession in 2019 Followed by Stagflation:
We learn, in 2019, the extent to which economic activity was pulled forward by the protracted period of historically low interest rates – as capital spending, retail sales, housing and autos founder further.
With U.S. Real GDP growth dropping to +1% to +2% in the first half of 2019, inflation remaining stubbornly high (especially of a wage-kind as the labor market remains tight) and with cost pressures unable to be passed on, the threat of recession intensifies.
By the third quarter of 2019 U.S. Real GDP turns negative. Tax collections collapse as government spending continues to rise. The budget deficit forecasts are lifted to over $2 trillion.
The U.S. falls into a recession in the last half of 2019 – followed by a lengthy period of stagnating economic growth and higher inflation (stagflation).
A dysfunctional, non-unified and discombobulated Europe also falls into a recession in 2019 – with significant ramifications for U.S. multinationals that populate the S&P Index.
U.S./Chinese trade tensions push the global economy down the hill as the year progresses and GDP growth in China comes in below +5.0%. The IMF reduces it’s global economic growth forecast three times next year.
S&P per share earnings fall by over -10% in 2019.
2) The Federal Reserve Pauses and Then Cuts as Currencies and Interest Rates Swing Wildly:
It’s a wild year for fixed income and currency volatility.
The Fed cuts rates in 3Q2019 and by year-end announces that QE4 will commence in January, 2020.
The 2018 tantrum in Italian bonds is just a precursor for hissy fits throughout the European bond market as the ECB is no longer expanding its balance sheet and tries to get out of NIRP.
The BoJ throws in the towel on their drive for higher inflation. The Japanese bond market sees sharp selloff.
During 2019 the yield on the ten year U.S. note falls to 2.25% before ending the year at over 3.50% as the selloff in European and Japanese bonds and the announcement of QE4 drive our yields higher. Gold falls to $1050 before ending the year at over $1700.
3) Stocks Sink:
Though the third year of a Presidential cycle is usually bullish – _it’s different this time._Trump confusing _brains with a bull market_ can’t fathom the emerging Bear Market. At first he blames it on Steve Mnuchin, his Secretary of Treasury (who leaves the Administration in the middle of the year). Then he blames a lower stock market on the mid-term election which turned the House. Then he blames the market correction on the Chinese.
The S&P Index hits a yearly low of 2200 in the first half of the year as the market worries about slowing economic and profit growth and a burgeoning deficit/monetization. The announcement of QE4 results in a year end rally in December, 2019. In a continued regime of volatility (and in a market dominated by ETFs and machines/algos), daily swings of 1%-3% become more commonplace. Investor sentiment slumps as redemptions from exchange traded funds grow to record levels. The absence of correlation between ETFs and the underlying component investments causes regulatory concerns throughout the year.
Congress holds hearings on the changing market structure and the weak foundation those changes delivered during the year.
Short sellers provide the best returns in the hedge fund space as the S&P Index records a second consecutive yearly loss (which is much deeper than in 2018).
As the Fed cuts interest rates the US dollar falls and emerging markets outperform the US in 2019.
I, like many, are concerned about corporate credit (See Surprise #8) and though credit is not unscathed, it is equities that bear the brunt of the Bear since they are below credit in the company capitalization structure.
Bottom line, after a steep drop in the first six months of the year, the markets rise off of the lows late in the year in response to this shifting political scene (the decline of Trump) and a reversal to a more expansive Fed policy – ending the year with a -10% loss.
4) Despite the Appearance of the Bear, FANG Stocks Surprisingly Prosper (Both Absolutely and Relatively) as Investors Seek Growth (at any cost) In a Slowing Economy – Facebook’s Shares Rebound Dramatically:
While there is a growing consensus that FANG will lead a Bear Market lower – that is not the case as growth, in a general sense, is dear and cherished by market participants next year. Among FANG, Facebook‘s shares have a reversal of fortune (and is the best performing FANG stock) as the company announces aggressive management changes and moves to remedy the misinformation trap.
As more previously unrevealed information reduces her valuation, Sheryl Sandburg’s special status as a female leader (in a seascape of men at Facebook and in industry) is questioned. In the first half of 2019, Sandberg becomes a sacrificial lamb and is sacked – and is forced to lean out after leaning in.
At the suggestion of Warren Buffett (who has accumulated a sizable stake in the company), former Board Member Donald Graham is named as the new, independent and Non-Executive Board Chairman of Facebook.
This unexpected move encourages FB investors to believe that the company is quickly moving to fix its multiple data and privacy issues.
Fewer (than feared) Facebook members opt out and growth in usage resumes in the back half of 2019.
FB’s stock popularity (and market capitalization) increases as it becomes a more dominant holding in “value investors” portfolios – the shares trade above $200/share late in the year.
5) “Peak Trump” – the President Bows Out in His Pursuit of a Second Term:
The President’s dismissal of the murder of Washington Post reporter Jamal Khashoggi is seen as delivering tacit support to Saudi Arabia’s MBS – it is a pivotal turning point in Trump’s popularity and ultimate reputational decline in 2019. _“Pay enough and you can get away with murder”_ becomes the mantra of the Progressive Left. Trump acceptance by his Republican party peers quickly diminishes as they are further worried about his motivation to side against the findings of his own intelligence department. After Trump’s personal dealings with authoritarian and autocratic countries are revealed in the Mueller probe (along with possible emoluments violations), Trump’s popularity fades further as Lindsay Graham and other prominent Republicans repeal their support and denounce the President.
An anti-imperial rebalancing is mounted, in which a more assertive Congress brings the country back into constitutional equilibrium.
Though the public and political leaders (even on the right)_ increasingly reject the President, there are no impeachment efforts by the Democrats. Instead (and surprisingly), House Speaker Pelosi (recognizing that constructive steps are the recipe for a Democratic 2020 Presidential win) exacts discretion and stops the Democrats from moving on an impeachment in the House. Democratic leadership turns to reforms and a torrent of new legislation in the areas of improving the environment and climate control (and the halt of growth in fossil fuel by the development of alternative energy programs), the opioid crisis, education, crime, voting rights, healthcare and prescription drug prices, immigration, etc.- showing the electorate that their Party can demonstrate the framework for a positive agenda, a vision and a social contract (and can rule instead of obstruct).But, most importantly… With real GDP turning negative in 2019’s second half, Democrats attempt to replace Republicans’ supply-side economics with a smarter theory of growth. Recognizing just as inflation and other ills opened the door for criticism of Keynesian economics in the 1970s, so have inequality and disinvestment done the same for critiques of supply side today. In 2019, the Democrats turn the table on the supply-siders and give a voice through thoughtful proposed legislation (making the affirmative case for the Democratic theory of growth geared to raising wages and putting more money in the hands in working- and middle-class people’s pocket and investing in their needs). Americans enthusiastically embrace this alternative (of how the economy works and grows and spreads prosperity) and reject and defeat the long standing Republican economic narrative – seeing it as a better way to spur on the economy_ (than giving rich people more tax cuts)._ Asking the question _“has it worked for you?_” and given the fairy tale of added revenue from growth (and the widening hole in the deficit),_ rampant inequality, the fear of being bankrupted by medical catastrophe and massive student debt obligations Democrats provide a practical alternative to cutting taxes for the rich and decreasing regulation which has failed to unleash as much innovation and economic activity that was promised by the Administration. The legislation, which puts more money in middle class pockets, defends and supports the notion that the public sector can make better decisions than the private sector. Referred to as the _“middle – in economic bill,”_ is cosponsored by a leading, conservative and respected Republican member of Congress and begins to gain bipartisan support in Congress, driving a stake through the supply-side’s heart.
Despite his loss of popularity (which plummets to 25%)_ and the push back from the Republican establishment, Trump declares he is still planning to run for President. Nevertheless, a challenge from Senator Mitt Romney (who’s motto is “Make Republicans Great Again”_) gains steam as McConnell, Graham, Kennedy Et al. throw their support for the Senator.
As Trump’s problems multiply, Romney becomes the heavy favorite to defeat Trump in the Republican primary.
Recognizing a sure election defeat, by year-end the President announces that his medical team has disclosed a health issue and he is advised not to run for office. _Reluctantly, _Trump agrees and bows out of the 2020 Presidential race late in the year.
The Trump mantra of “Make America Great Again” i_s replaced by _“Make Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility Great Again.”#MAGA/#MUVGA
6) The Year of the Woman:
With a Trump withdrawal from 2020 the election is wide open.
The arc of history influences the Democratic Presidential nomination march and the leading candidates that emerge for 2020 are mostly women. The potential contenders include progressive firebrands like Elizabeth Warren, Stacey Abrams, Kristen Gillibrand and Kamala Harris, and moderates like Senator Amy Klobuchar and Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo.
Michael Bloomberg, Howard Schultz and Joe Biden bowout from the race by year end 2019 By year-end, Klobucher, Harris and Warren surface as the three leading Democratic Presidential candidates.
It appears that an all women Democratic ticket (President/Vice President) is increasingly likely.
Nationally, several high profile sexual harassment suits are disclosed. Allegations against a number of well known television, other entertainment and political icons/leaders serve to reinforce the candidacy of the above women who aspire to gain the Democratic Presidential nomination. After Congressional hearings, non partisan and strict harassment legislation are introduced forcing several well known male politicians to resign from office.
7) A New (But Old) Shiny Object Appears As A Stock Market Winner in 2019:
Bitcoin trades close to $3,000 in December, 2018 and spends most of 2019 under $5,000 (as numerous trading irregularities, thefts and more frauds are exposed).
England’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) takes the lead, in instituting a comprehensive regulatory response to regulating the crypto currency markets. The U.S. follows by imposing broad-based crypto currency regulation in 2019.
A leading business network (who’s bitcoin “bug” has become the new cover of magazine contrary indicator!) faces a class action suit for their seeming encouragement in buying into the asset class in their too frequent broadcasts during 2018. Several crypto currency guests who were prominent on the network’s coverage are indicted for fraud. In an agreement with regulatory authorities, the biz network’s programming is reconstituted.
Marijuana stocks, after a weak final few months in 2018 (are down by over 50% from their highs), explode back to the upside reflecting a quickened pace of alternative health applications. (MJ) is the single best performing exchange traded fund and (TLRY) makes another move to $300/share.
8) Private Equity, High Yield Debt and Leveraged Loan Problems (Which Have Doubled in Size Over the Last Ten Years) Emerge as the Resurgence of Leveraged Finance Comes to An End:
Private equity, in particular, the biggest winner in the decade long cycle since _The Great Decession of 2007-09,_ suffers – and so do the endowments at several prestigious universities. Covenant- lite financings in junk and leveraged loans – often in opaque and complex structures – topple under the weight of loan defaults. (HYG) (last sale: $83.17) trades $75-$80 as redemptions spike.
Publicly-held private equity shops (KKR) and Blackstone (BX) are among the largest percentages losers in 2019, High yield bonds fulfill their characterization as “junk,” and are among the worst performing asset classes. The spread between junk bonds and Treasuries more than doubles – widening dramatically during the summer months.
9) The China/U.S.Rift Intensifies as Trump’s Anger Shifts Towards That Region:
The trade war with China goes into full effect with 25% tariffs. Walmart (WMT) is adversely impacted and its shares fall by -20% from the recent highs. The Chinese retaliate against major American brands like Apple (AAPL) . _(“Peak Apple” actually happens and its shares fall below $125/share)._Peter Navarro resigns.
A major cyber-attack against the U.S. financial system, who’s source is initially not diagnosed, is ultimately reportedly to have been delivered by China. The U.S. enters a cold war with China that resembles the emergence of the cold war with Russia in 1948 – it becomes clear it will be lengthy, nasty and unfriendly to the trajectory of worldwide economic growth.
10) Bank Stocks Are Surprising Winners in 2019:
Despite some pressure in net interest margins (and income), sluggish loan demand and a pickup in loan losses – bank stocks (and EPS) are surprisingly resilient and manage to have a positive return next year as better relative EPS growth is supported by aggressive buybacks and (starting) low valuations. Investors look forward to a recovery in economic growth in 2020-21 and bank stocks (flat for most of the year) have a vigorous move in the last few months of the year and are one of the few sectors to advance in 2019.
Oil stocks, depressed from the late 2018 crude oil price fall also recovery mightily in the later months of 2019 as the price of oil advances coincident with dovish turn in monetary policy.
11) Tesla’s Problems Shift From Production to Demand to Financial:
Tesla (TSLA) loses its tax subsidy in the U.S. and in the Netherlands (a large market for them).
European competition grows.
Europe doesn’t allow the Tesla Model 3 due to safety reasons. The Chinese won’t let an American company have video data over millions of miles of roads and bans Tesla. Lenders balk and access to the public debt market evaporates. The company’s financial position deteriorates and its credit default swaps widen dramatically.
An accounting “issue” surfaces – and it morphs into an accounting fraud. Elon Musk, who has leveraged his TSLA equity holdings, faces margin calls and is forced to sell Tesla shares.
After being rushed to the hospital after an overdose, Musk leaves his CEO post to enter drug rehab.
12) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) Announces the Largest Takeover in History – The Transformational Acquisition of 3M for $150 billion.
13) Amazon (AMZN) Makes a Bid for Square (SQ) but Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) Eventually Acquires Both Square SQ and Twitter (TWTR)
14) With its Share Price Consistently Trading Under Its Book Value During the First Few Months of 2019, Goldman Sachs’ (GS) Partners Take the Brokerage Private in a Leveraged Buyout at $238/share.
15) Brexit Happens: The world continues and the pound is the best global currency.

Here Are 5-“Also Eligible” Surprises:

• AE1) Ford (F) defaults on its loans. Steve Rattner again becomes the “car czar.”- AE2) A major and unexpected global event judged to be impacted by climate issues causes a massive amount of health problems and deaths. Demand for a reversal of Trump policy on climate change comes from his within his own Party and represents another fissure between the White House and the legislative branch.- AE3) Warren Buffett announces his successor. The name, however, is no surprise.- AE4) Angela Merkel doesn’t make it thru the year and Germany has a new leader. - AE5) As is typical with maturing economic cycles, two large accounting frauds of S&PIndex constituents are uncovered late in the year. A previously “sainted” and revered CEO does a prep walk.

BREAKING: TRUMP to delay UK trip -- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Aug. recess in jeopardy -- ISENSTADT: MITT shows signs of political revival -- SPOTTED at Mike Shields/Katie Walsh engagement party -- B’DAY: Greta van Susteren
by [email protected] (Daniel Lippman) via POLITICO - TOP Stories
URL: http://ift.tt/2rP8bod
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- WE HEAR … There is a chance Congress will stay in session for part of August. There has been political pressure from some members of the House and Senate to stay in town and try to get some things done instead of take a five-week recess. The pressure will only increase if the Obamacare repeal and replace isn’t done in the next few weeks. Congress has just 27 days in session until the summer break. Maybe it's a blessing in disguise: many lawmakers have had to face angry constituents on trips home.
STATEMENTS FROM PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP from Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey -- at 8:22 a.m.: “The #FakeNews MSM doesn’t report the great economic news since Election Day. #DOW up 16%. #NASDAQ up 19.5%. Drilling & energy sector......way up. Regulations way down. 600,000+ new jobs added. Unemployment down to 4.3%. Business and economic enthusiasm way up- record levels!” … at 8:29 a.m.: “I believe the James Comey leaks will be far more prevalent than anyone ever thought possible. Totally illegal? Very ‘cowardly!’” … at 8:49 a.m.: “The Democrats have no message, not on economics, not on taxes, not on jobs, not on failing #Obamacare. They are only OBSTRUCTIONISTS!”
-- TWO QUICK THINGS: Many Democrats will privately agree with Trump that they oftentimes lack a coherent message. But Trump’s presidency has unified Democrats for the first time in a long time … Trump has majorities in the House and Senate, and he’s blaming Democrats for obstructing him.
**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook:http://politi.co/2lQswbh
BREAKING OVERSEAS -- TRUMP PUTS OFF U.K. VISIT -- THE GUARDIAN: “Donald Trump’s state visit to Britain put on hold: U.S. president told Theresa May he did not want trip to go ahead if there were large-scale public protests”: “Donald Trump has told Theresa May in a phone call he does not want to go ahead with a state visit to Britain until the British public supports him coming. The U.S. president said he did not want to come if there were large-scale protests and his remarks in effect put the visit on hold for some time. The call was made in recent weeks, according to a Downing Street adviser who was in the room. The statement surprised May, according to those present.” http://bit.ly/2reskVQ
Good Sunday morning. Jake will be on Steve Hilton’s new Fox News show “The Next Revolution” live from Los Angeles tonight at 9 p.m. East Coast time.
TRUMP stopped by a wedding at his country club in New Jersey last night. http://bit.ly/2t98Uhy
YOU’LL HEAR THIS QUOTE A LOT -- Donald Trump Jr. on Fox News, via the Washington Post: “‘When he tells you to do something, guess what? There’s no ambiguity in it, there’s no, ‘Hey, I’m hoping,'’ Trump said. ‘You and I are friends: ‘Hey, I hope this happens, but you’ve got to do your job.’ That’s what he told Comey. And for this guy as a politician to then go back and write a memo: ‘Oh, I felt threatened.’ He felt so threatened -- but he didn’t do anything.’ Trump also said that Comey’s testimony ‘vindicated’ the president and that everything in it was ‘basically ridiculous.’” http://wapo.st/2t9eJf5
ALEX ISENSTADT in DEER VALLEY, UTAH -- “Romney stokes speculation he’s weighing another political run: The 2012 GOP nominee is plotting how to help Republicans in the midterms, and he’s being coy about his own political future”: “Mitt Romney is once again testing his political power — critiquing President Donald Trump, raising money and campaigning for fellow Republicans, and not ruling out another run for office for himself. The 2012 GOP nominee is returning to the spotlight, six months after Trump -- the man Romney once savaged as unfit for the presidency -- nearly picked him to be secretary of state. …
“Spencer Zwick, a longtime Romney adviser and political gatekeeper, said he’d been inundated with appeals from Republican candidates asking the former GOP nominee to help them. Last week, Romney held his first fundraiser for a 2018 hopeful, an event benefiting Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, a Republican who has been fiercely critical of the president. Over the coming days, Romney is also expected to release a robo-call boosting Georgia Republican Karen Handel, who has been losing ground in a high-stakes June 20 special House election she had once been favored to win.
“‘All I can tell you is that the number of requests that Mitt has gotten in the last month to come to a district or to come to a state for a sitting senator — it’s like he’s a presidential candidate again, which I was surprised by,’ said Zwick, who doubles as a top political aide to House Speaker Paul Ryan. ‘There are only so many people in the party that can headline these things.’” http://politi.co/2rZkZ9X
-- THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE between Republicans wanting to take advantage of Romney’s fundraising prowess, and his running for office and garnering the support he needs to win.
SUNDAY BEST -- JOHN DICKERSON speaks with SEN. JAMES LANKFORD (R-OKLA.) on CBS’S “FACE THE NATION” -- DICKERSON: “On the question of influencing the investigation, again, thinking about the scale, on the one hand the president might have done something that was a little bit crossing a line but he’s a new guy to the job all the way to this question of obstruction of justice. Where do you put, knowing what you know about the president’s behavior, where do you put what he did on that scale?” LANKFORD: “I would say it’s very inappropriate. As Jim Comey said, it’s awkward to be able to have the president of the United States sitting down with someone in the F.B.I., the leadership of the F.B.I., to be able to have direct questions. And for the issue to come up about the Michael Flynn investigations, inappropriate. But the way that it was handled, with no follow-up, with no other press, with no other return to that topic, it looks like what I called a pretty light touch. If this is trying to interfere in a process of any investigation, it doesn’t seem like it was number one, very effective, and number two, came up more than once in a conversation. So this looks more like an inappropriate conversation than obstruction.”
-- SEN. JACK REED (D-R.I.) tells CHRIS WALLACE on “FOX NEWS SUNDAY” that Trump needs to be deposed on all Russia-related questions -- “[T]he deposition is not just about his conversations with Mr. Comey. There are issues with respect to his conversation with director of national intelligence Dan Coats, Admiral Rogers, the NSA director, his relationships with Manafort. By the time the special prosecutor Mr. Mueller is ready to depose or ask the president to speak under oath, there are a myriad of questions. So what I don’t want to see is simply, we’ll I just said I talk about Comey, I’m not talking about anything else. To resolve this situation he has to be prepared to speak on all these matters.”
-- PREET BHARARA speaks to GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS on ABC’S “THIS WEEK” -- STEPHANOPOULOS: “The president’s defenders, like Alan Dershowitz, say there’s no grounds for obstruction. You talked about that. And he, in fact, says that presidents have the constitutional right to fire FBI directors and investigations as much as they want. One of the president’s attorneys, Jay Sekulow, is coming up next. He says there’s no there there, no basis for obstruction. You’re a former prosecutor. Are -- is there evidence there ... to begin a case for obstruction?” BHARARA: “I think there’s absolutely evidence to begin a case. I think it’s very important for all sorts of armchair speculators in the law to be clear that no one knows right now whether there is a provable case of obstruction. It’s also true I think from based on what I see as a third party and out of government that there’s no basis to say there’s no obstruction.”
-- SEN. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) talks to BRIANNA KEILAR on CNN’s “STATE OF THE UNION” -- KEILAR: “I want to ask you about something the president has been cagey about, and that is these tapes, of course. So, I wonder if you would support issuing a subpoena to the White House. Right now, it’s just a request coming from Congress. Would you support issuing a subpoena for the recordings or any documents that might come from that?” COLLINS: “This is an issue that the president should have cleared up in his press conference. He should give a straight yes or no to the answer -- to the question of whether or not the tapes exist. And he should voluntarily turn them over not only to the Senate Intelligence Committee, but to the special counsel. So, I don’t think a subpoena should be necessary. And I don’t understand why the president just doesn’t clear this matter up once and for all.”
THE NEXT MAIN EVENT -- “Sessions will testify before Senate in Russia investigation,” by Kyle Cheney and John Bresnahan: “In a letter to his former colleagues in the House and Senate, Sessions canceled a planned appearance before Congress’ appropriations committees. Sessions said he instead plans to appear on Tuesday before the Intelligence panel to respond to questions stemming from FBI director James Comey’s bombshell testimony last Thursday. …
“If this is an open session ... Sessions will likely face a barrage of questions over his role in Comey’s dismissal, his independence from President Donald Trump, and allegations of additional unreported meetings with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Sessions has already recused himself from the Russia probe after failing to tell the Senate Judiciary Committee during his confirmation of two meetings with Kislyak, and there have been reports of additional sessions.” http://politi.co/2rOVc5P
-- SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-CALIF.) told Brianna Keilar on “State of the Union” that she didn’t know if the hearing will be open.
INQUIRING MINDS WANT TO KNOW -- “What’s next for Comey? Maybe law, corporate work, politics,” by AP’s Eric Tucker: “So what’s next for James Comey? The former FBI director boldly challenged the president who fired him, accused the Trump administration of lying and supplied material that could be used to build a case against President Donald Trump. But after stepping away from the Capitol Hill spotlight, where he’s always seemed comfortable, the 56-year-old veteran lawman now confronts the same question long faced by Washington officials after their government service.
“His dry quip at a riveting Senate hearing that he was ‘between opportunities’ vastly understates the career prospects now available to him — not to mention potential benefits from the public’s fascination with a man who has commanded respect while drawing outrage from both political parties.” http://apne.ws/2sQlkMb
EYE-POPPING NUMBERS FROM WAPO’S KAREN TUMULTY in SANDY SPRINGS, GEORGIA -- “Trump looms over Georgia special election, a proxy battle for 2018”: “It is an arms race of money and organization. The latest fundraising report, filed Thursday, showed Ossoff raising an additional $15 million in the past two months, nearly quadruple what Handel brought in. With outside groups weighing in, the race has thus far cost more than $40 million -- far outpacing the previous record for a congressional race of nearly $30 million for a Florida contest in 2012.
“Polls indicate there are few voters still undecided. ‘The next 10 days are about turning out the base. There are more of us than them in the district. The more people who vote, the better,’ said Corry Bliss, who heads the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC affiliated with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.). That organization alone plans to spend about $7 million in the race.” http://wapo.st/2rjhPM4
FASCINATING READ -- “Palantir goes from Pentagon outsider to Mattis’ inner circle,” by Jacqueline Klimas and Bryan Bender: “The Trump era has brought a change of fortune for a Silicon Valley software company founded by presidential adviser Peter Thiel — turning it from a Pentagon outcast to a player with three allies in Defense Secretary Jim Mattis' inner circle. At least three Pentagon officials close to Mattis, including his deputy chief of staff and a longtime confidante, either worked, lobbied or consulted for Palantir Technologies, according to ethics disclosures obtained by POLITICO. That’s an unusually high number of people from one company to have such daily contact with the Pentagon leader, some analysts say.
“It also represents a sharp rise in prominence for the company, which just months ago could barely get a meeting in the Pentagon. Last year, Palantir even had to go to court to force its way into a competition for a lucrative Army contract. Thiel was one of the only Silicon Valley titans to openly support Trump during the campaign, a role that gave him a prime speaking slot at last summer’s Republican convention. He has since acted as a key adviser arranging meetings among the president and other tech executives. While there's no evidence he had a direct hand in these specific Pentagon hires, analysts say they absolutely show his growing influence in the administration, where he holds no formal role.” http://politi.co/2sqMdbS
DEMOCRATS’ NEW PLAYBOOK -- “Democrats bet on Trump in Virginia governor’s race,” by Kevin Robillard: “Virginia’s Democratic primary on Tuesday is shaping up to be the first real test of liberalism in the Trump era, with both candidates lurching for increasingly leftward policies to position themselves in contrast with President Donald Trump. …
“Virginia’s gubernatorial elections often develop into contrasts with a new president, but there’s a stark difference between now and how Republican candidate Bob McDonnell handled then-President Barack Obama in 2009. While critical of the Obama's economic record, the future governor also regularly praised Obama for supporting school choice, straddling the partisan divide. The Democrats have felt no need to do the same with the less popular Trump, whose approval rating was at 36 percent in a recent Washington Post-George Mason University poll of Virginia.” http://politi.co/2rjHzYJ
THE LATEST ON HEALTH CARE -- “Fate of Planned Parenthood funding tied to Senate moderates,” by Jen Haberkorn: “Two female Senate Republicans could stop the anti-abortion movement from achieving its most significant win against Planned Parenthood in decades. Most Republicans want to eliminate the group’s $555 million in federal funding as part of their bill to repeal Obamacare. But as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell tries to solve the legislative Rubik’s Cube of finding 50 votes for repeal, he may have to drop the Planned Parenthood cut to win the support of the two Republican moderates, Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.” http://politi.co/2sbbpTf
WHAT SILICON VALLEY IS READING -- “Uber Board to Discuss CEO Travis Kalanick’s Possible Leave of Absence: Board also set to vote on recommendations from a report of an investigation into workplace issues,” by WSJ’s Greg Bensinger: “Uber Technologies Inc. Chief Executive Travis Kalanick will discuss taking a possible leave of absence when the board of directors of the embattled ride-hailing company meets Sunday morning, according to a person familiar with the matter.
“Also on the agenda when the seven-person board convenes is a vote on a series of recommendations from a report prepared by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder regarding its workplace. It was uncertain whether Mr. Kalanick would ultimately take the leave or whether the board would approve of such a measure, which would require finding a temporary replacement in short order.” http://on.wsj.com/2r7Ram8
THE JUICE …
-- SPOTTED at Mitt Romney’s E2 Summit in Deer Valley, Utah: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Spencer Zwick, Matt Waldrip, Corry Bliss, Speaker Paul Ryan, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Kristen Soltis Anderson, Ron Kaufman, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), Anthony Scaramucci, Bianna Golodryga, Will Ritter, Mary Bono Mack, Lanhee Chen, Leah Malone and Andrew Liveris.
RIP -- @SecondLady: “Rest in peace Oreo. You touched a lot of hearts in your little life. Our family will miss you very much.” http://bit.ly/2sgQOxR
‘WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT WEEK’ AT THE WHITE HOUSE -- “Donald and Ivanka Trump head to Wisconsin for jobs push,” by ABC News’ Jordyn Phelps: “President Donald Trump and his daughter Ivanka Trump are set to travel to Wisconsin Tuesday to join Gov. Scott Walker to tour a technical college, as the administration puts a renewed focus on its goal of job creation. The trip is just one event in a week full of activities built around promoting technical skills training and apprenticeships. [They are d]ubbing it ‘workforce development week’ ...
“The president is expected to make what the administration is billing as a ‘major policy speech’ at the Department of Labor on Wednesday, in which he’ll lay out steps the administration will take to encourage workforce development and also call for Congressional action. Ivanka Trump will also lead a roundtable with some 15 CEOs. On Thursday, the president will also host a roundtable discussion, where he will welcome eight governors from states with successful workforce development programs to the White House.” http://abcn.ws/2r7tOwT
THE NEW U.K. POLITICAL REALITY -- “For Britain, Political Stability Is a Quaint Relic,” by NYT’s Steven Erlanger in London: “In a little more than two years, Britain has had two general elections and a nationwide referendum. Each time, the politicians, pollsters, betting markets, political scientists and commentators have got it wrong.
“Once considered one of the most politically stable countries in the world, regularly turning out majority governments, Britain is increasingly confusing and unpredictable, both to its allies and itself. Far from settling the fierce divisions exposed by last year’s referendum on Britain’s exit from the European Union, or Brexit, the election on Thursday only made them worse.” http://nyti.ms/2shhy1i
-- THE POLITICO EUROPE TICK TOCK: “How Theresa May lost it: A reluctance to delegate, hubris and campaigning ineptitude ruined British prime minister’s grand plan to secure a mandate,” by Tom McTague, Charlie Cooper and Annabelle Dickson in London: “Halfway through Britain’s seven-week snap election campaign, some in Theresa May’s team came to the conclusion that they had a problem — the candidate. At a gathering of senior staff in Conservative campaign headquarters in central London, one of May’s top operatives told the sitting prime minister that she risked crashing and burning like Sarah Palin did in 2008. ... To the operative, May was overly controlling and her inexperience would tell during a short, intense campaign. May listened with good grace ... [but] changed nothing.” http://politi.co/2t8VuSG
ACTUAL FAKE NEWS – NYT A22, “A Pro-Trump Conspiracy Theorist, a False Tweet and a Runaway Story,” by Jeremy Peters: “A pro-Trump activist notorious for his amateur sleuthing into red herrings like the ‘Pizzagate’ hoax and a conspiracy theory involving the murder of a Democratic aide, Mr. Posobiec wrote on May 17 that Mr. Comey, the recently ousted F.B.I. director, had ‘said under oath that Trump did not ask him to halt any investigation.’ …
“But as the journey of that one tweet shows, misinformed, distorted and false stories are gaining traction far beyond the fringes of the internet. Just 14 words from Mr. Posobiec’s Twitter account would spread far enough to provide grist for a prime-time Fox News commentary and a Rush Limbaugh monologue that reached millions of listeners, forging an alternative first draft of history in corners of the conservative media where President Trump’s troubles are often explained away as fabrications by his journalist enemies.
“In this fragmented media environment, the spread of false information is accelerated and amplified by a web of allied activist-journalists with large online followings, a White House that grants them access and, occasionally, a president who validates their work. The right-wing media machine that President Bill Clinton’s aides once referred to as ‘conspiracy commerce’ is now far more mature, extensive and, in the internet age, tough to counter.” http://nyti.ms/2sbduPm
DEEP DIVES -- NYT A1, “Opioid Dealers Embrace the Dark Web to Send Deadly Drugs by Mail: Anonymous online sales are surging, and people are dying. Despite dozens of arrests, new merchants — many based in Asia — quickly pop up,” by Nathaniel Popper (print headline: “Drug Trade Rises in Dark Corners of the Internet”): “As the nation’s opioid crisis worsens, the authorities are confronting a resurgent, unruly player in the illicit trade of the deadly drugs, one that threatens to be even more formidable than the cartels. The internet. In a growing number of arrests and overdoses, law enforcement officials say, the drugs are being bought online. Internet sales have allowed powerful synthetic opioids such as fentanyl — the fastest-growing cause of overdoses nationwide — to reach living rooms in nearly every region of the country, as they arrive in small packages in the mail.” http://nyti.ms/2t91CdL
--“China’s New Bridges: Rising High, but Buried in Debt: China has built hundreds of dazzling new bridges, including the longest and highest, but many have fostered debt and corruption,” by NYT’s Chris Buckley: “The eye-popping structures have slashed travel times in some areas, made business easier and generated a sizable slice of the country’s economy, laying a foundation, in theory at least, for decades of future growth. But as the bridges and the expressways they span keep rising, critics say construction has become an end unto itself. Fueled by government-backed loans and urged on by the big construction companies and officials who profit from them, many of the projects are piling up debt and breeding corruption while producing questionable transportation benefits.” http://nyti.ms/2t9er7I
BONUS GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman:
--“Bob Dylan’s Nobel Lecture”: “Some of these same things have happened to you. You too have had drugs dropped into your wine. You too have shared a bed with the wrong woman. You too have been spellbound by sweet voices with strange melodies. You too have come so far and have been so far blown back.” http://bit.ly/2rULMnO
--“How the D-Day Invasion Was Planned” – in the August 1944 issue of Popular Mechanics: “Every one of the thousands of men landed in France required about 10 ship tons of overall equipment, and an additional ship ton every 30 days. The number of separate items needed was about a million. Some of these million items had to be accumulated in millions, resulting in astronomical totals.” http://bit.ly/2smaY97
--“Eternal Champions,” by Sam Borden in ESPN: “Seven months ago, Brazilian underdogs Chapecoense boarded a plane to play in the game of their lives. Instead, their biggest moment turned into a tragedy no one can forget.” http://es.pn/2r9Y3aB (h/t Longform.org)
--“Inside Trump’s secretive immigration court: far from scrutiny and legal aid,” by The Guardian’s Oliver Laughland in Jena, Louisiana: “[T]he remote LaSalle detention facility is part of Trump’s attempt to fast-track deportations. A visit reveals a hastily arranged setup beset by flaws.” http://bit.ly/2scNvHQ
--“Rolling Stone at 50: How Hunter S. Thompson Became a Legend,” by Patrick Doyle in Rolling Stone – per The Browser’s description: “Sports Illustrated asked Hunter S. Thompson for 250 words about a Las Vegas motorbike race. He gave them 2,500 words — and when they spiked the piece he took it to Rolling Stone, which wanted more. The result was Fear And Loathing In Las Vegas, published in 1971. Thompson’s coverage of the 1972 presidential campaign ‘reshaped what it meant to write about politics’. But ‘getting work out of him was becoming difficult”. Editing him ‘was a bit like being a cornerman for Ali.’” http://rol.st/2smiHEk
--“Weddings of the 0.01 Percent,” by Julia Rubin in Racked: “Cristal! Caviar! Chris Martin! How the rich (and sometimes famous) get married.” http://bit.ly/2smtvCz
--“The truth about tarot,” by James McConnachie in Aeon Magazine: “Whether divining ancient wisdoms or elevating the art of cold reading, tarot is a form of therapy, much like psychoanalysis.” http://bit.ly/2sL1XDY (h/t ALDaily.com)
--“The Worst Ever First Day on the Job -- Punching In: My Life as a Long Haul Trucker,” by Finn Murphy in Literary Hub: “Moving companies perform four categories of moving work: local, commercial, long-distance, and international. Callahan’s work was mostly local moving, loading up someone’s house in the morning and then unloading in the afternoon at the new house. It takes the greatest toll on the body because you are handling stuff every working day. It’s the local stuff that eventually kills you or drives you to drink; more commonly, both.” http://bit.ly/2s4Nuoy
--“There Were Once Jews Here,” by Lucette Lagnado, author of “The Man in the White Sharkskin Suit: A Jewish Family’s Exodus from Old Cairo to the New World,” in Tablet Magazine: “During the Six-Day War, some of the Arab countries at war with Israel -- Egypt, Tunisia, Libya -- treated their Jewish populations terribly, causing them to leave en masse.” http://bit.ly/2t92OOk ... $10.01 on Amazonhttp://amzn.to/2sbmAeT
--“Dear Brazilian Government, Thanks for the Contracts,” by Michael Smith, Sabrina Valle, and Blake Schmidt on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek: “There’s graft, and then there’s the graft machine perfected by Odebrecht, one of the world's biggest construction companies.” https://bloom.bg/2rOEHqr … The coverhttp://bit.ly/2rjKL6H
--“‘Kill them, kill them, kill them’: the volunteer army plotting to wipe out Britain’s grey squirrels,” by Patrick Barkham in The Guardian: “The red squirrel is under threat of extinction across Britain. Their supporters believe the only way to save them is to exterminate their enemy: the greys. But are they just prejudiced against non-native species?” http://bit.ly/2re8OE6
--“This County Switched From Backing Obama to Trump. Here’s What Happened,” by Josh Siegel in The Daily Signal: “In 1980, manufacturing jobs comprised 38 percent of all jobs in Coos [New Hampshire]. In 2014, only 7 percent of jobs in the county were in manufacturing. Payroll wages from manufacturing have dropped from 49 percent to 9 percent since the mid-1980s.” http://bit.ly/2sL2A0v
SPOTTED: Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly enjoying “DHS Night” Friday night at the Nats game along with members of DHS’ workforce – pic http://bit.ly/2rjyfUM... Anson Kaye, partner at GMMB, in New Orleans last night, accepting a Gold ADDY award (and also a Mosaic Award) for the ad “Mirrors” (http://bit.ly/2sbAIEM) he created for Hillary for America
SPOTTED at State Department senior White House adviser Matt Mowers’ birthday party at Wet Dog Tavern last night (which coincidentally also hosted RNC alum Anna Epstein’s birthday party at the same time): Cassie Spodak, Ryan Williams, Zeke Miller, Ben Sparks, Jill Barclay, Phil Elliott, Ethan Zorfas, Ben DeMarzo, Maren Kasper, Michael Kratsios, Kailani Koenig, Tom Dickens, Elise Dietsch Dickens, Eric Jones, Alan He, Andy Polesovsky, Corey Ershow, Kelly Klass, Britt Carter.
SHIELDS/WALSH ENGAGEMENT PARTY -- THE BRITISH EMBASSY hosted an engagement party last night for Mike Shields, former RNC chief of staff and founder and partner at Convergence Media and Katie Walsh, former WH deputy chief of staff and former RNC chief of staff who is now senior advisor at America First Policies. Amb. Kim Darroch toasted the pair and called them the “ultimate political couple” and told the crowd how the couple got engaged in the Cabinet Room at 10 Downing Street, where the prime minister has met with his or her cabinet every week for 250 years. He also needled Mike, who has a British mother and is a big soccer fan, for supporting Ipswich, who he cast as much inferior to Chelsea in the Premier League. The food at the party included: herb-crusted fillet of lamb, goat’s cheese and beetroot, terrine of pork, and chili shrimp while desserts included mini Bakewell tart, strawberry tartlet and passion fruit mousse. Pics of the couplehttp://bit.ly/2sbk3Bp … http://bit.ly/2saWbhk … Reince Priebus taking a pic of the couple as they thanked friends for coming http://bit.ly/2rOGmfz … The crowdhttp://bit.ly/2rOzjDs
SPOTTED: Reince and Sally Priebus, Sean and Rebecca Spicer, Steven Mnuchin and his chief of staff Eli Miller chatting on a walk around the gardens of the embassy, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Rob and Cindy Simms, Cara Mason, Jessica Ditto, Sarah and Dave Armstrong, Tim Pataki, Richard Walters, Rob Jesmer chatting with Sean Cairncross (Sean and Rob have been friends since they were 5 years old growing up in Minnesota), Brian O. Walsh, Josh Pitcock, Mike’s 15-year-old son Aidan Shields-Eads, Molly Donlin, Steven Law, Sam Feist, Mike Allen, Andrew Bremberg, Lew Eisenberg, Madeleine Westerhout, Johnny DeStefano, Renee Hudson, Michael Hoare, Lindsay Walters, Vanessa Morrone and Mike Ambrosini, Zach and Mallory Hunter.
ENGAGED --Andrew Feldman, principal of the progressive communications firm Feldman Strategies, proposed to his longtime girlfriend Megan Salzman Saturday night during Country Music Fest in Nashville. Megan is a communications manager at the early education advocacy group The First Five Years Fund. “Andrew and Megan met on OKCupid nearly four and a half years ago. Andrew points out that the ring has extra significant because the center stone was Megan’s mother’s engagement stone and she is no longer with us.” Pics http://bit.ly/2r7KrIZ ... http://bit.ly/2rOFJTb … The ringhttp://bit.ly/2rjzLGh
-- Jessica Huff, social media director for McClatchy in Dallas and a Politico alum, and Spenser Walters, an area sales rep for Duvel USA, got engaged on Friday night in Austin, Texas. She emails us: “We met in college at UT-Austin after he came back from Afghanistan. He was serving in the Marines. We had the same group of friends but I hadn’t met him yet since he was overseas. Once he was back, one of our first dates was at a restaurant in the hill country in Texas overlooking the lake, and so while visiting Austin he took me back there and proposed during sunset. It’s a very special place to us so it was perfect!” Picshttp://bit.ly/2shqCmX … The ringhttp://bit.ly/2t9rnKO
WEEKEND WEDDINGS -- Travis Considine, communications manager at Uber Texas and a John McCain and Rick Perry alum, married Morgan Smith, a reporter with The Texas Tribune, on Saturday evening at the San Antonio Museum of Art. Guests enjoyed a bluegrass band and flawless weather at the outdoor ceremony and reception. Pichttp://bit.ly/2t9jc1c … Travis’ speechhttp://bit.ly/2sQLqi2
SPOTTED: Tucker and Alexia Bounds, Brittany Bramell, Trevor Theunissen, Chris Miller, Allie Brandenburger and Ryan Mahoney, Kevin Benacci, Emily Ramshaw, Matt and Jen Hirsch, Evan Smith, Perrylanders Rob Johnson, Mark Miner, and Andy Hemming.
OBAMA ALUMNI – Meredith Carden, head of partnerships at Sidewire, got married this weekend to Micah Fergenson, law clerk at U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, in a small ceremony at Four Follies Farm in Tiverton, Rhode Island. The couple first met in 2009 when they were working for President Obama. Micah worked in the WH Counsel’s Office, and Meredith worked for FLOTUS in the East Wing. They lost touch, but were reintroduced by a mutual friend in 2015. Pichttp://bit.ly/2sb3PIq
--“Lily Rothman, Elihu Dietz” – N.Y. Times: “Ms. Rothman, 31, is the history and archives editor at Time magazine, overseeing its history coverage, Life.com and the magazine’s digital archive. She also wrote ‘Everything You Need to Ace American History in One Big Fat Notebook.’ She graduated magna cum laude from Yale and received a master’s degree in journalism from the City University of New York. ... Mr. Dietz, 32, is a candidate for a master’s degree in environmental management at the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke, where he studies the integration of renewable energy into the grid. He graduated from St. John’s College in Santa Fe, N.M. ... The groom is a great-great-grandson and a namesake of Elihu Root, who was President Theodore Roosevelt’s secretary of state and the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1912. He is also a direct descendant of President Ulysses S. Grant. The couple met on a blind date arranged by friends in Brooklyn in 2011.” With pic http://nyti.ms/2rZpO2N
--“Alison Kenworthy, Michael Koenigs”: “The bride and groom work at ABC News in New York, where they met. She is a news producer for ‘Good Morning America.’ He is a senior coordinating producer, creating content that is used on-air and on the website. He was also the host of ‘Election Cycle,’ a series in 2016 that featured him bicycling through swing states and interviewing voters along the way. The bride, 33, graduated from Rutgers. ... Mr. Koenigs, 30, graduated cum laude from Harvard.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2t8GB2L
--“Julia Pudlin, David Wishnick”: “Ms. Pudlin, 32, worked until earlier this year at the United States Treasury Department as a deputy executive secretary in the chief of staff’s office and a senior adviser to the general counsel. On July 10 she is to begin working as the assistant deputy general counsel for government investigations at Comcast in Philadelphia. She graduated summa cum laude from Yale, and received a law degree magna cum laude from the University of Pennsylvania. ... Mr. Wishnick, also 32, was until recently an associate in the Washington office of Jenner & Block, a Chicago law firm. On July 12 he is to begin a fellowship, conducting research in contract law, at the University of Pennsylvania Law School. He graduated magna cum laude from Brown, and received a law degree from Yale. ... The couple met in April 2013 through the dating app Hinge.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2rOZSIV
--“Victoria St. Martin, Richard G. Jones”: “The bride, 36, is a general assignment reporter on the local desk of The Washington Post. She graduated from Rutgers and received a master’s degree in journalism from American University. ... The groom, 46, is to become the director of the journalism program at Notre Dame. Until recently, he was an associate editor in news administration for The New York Times, as well as the director of the newspaper’s Student Journalism Institute. He graduated from the University of Delaware and has a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia. ... The couple were introduced in 2006 by a mutual friend in Yardley, Pa.” With pichttp://nyti.ms/2rOtYMA
BIRTHDAYS: Greta Van Susteren, the pride of Appleton, Wisconsin (hat tip: Tammy Haddad) ... Tad Devine, the pride of Providence who lives on Block Island, is 62 ... Kim Oates of the House Radio/TV gallery … Carrie Budoff Brown’s older sister, Jennifer Budoff, budget director for the D.C. City Council ... former Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) is 87 … Lindsey Williams Drath ... Jennifer Rubin ... Michael Timmeny, SVP for government and community relations at Cisco ... Jeremy Ben-Ami, president at J Street (h/ts Jon Haber) ... POLITICO’s Reid Pillifant, Emily Dobler and Juliette Medina ... South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard is 64 ... Treasury alum David Cohen ... TJ Adams-Falconer, associate director of external affairs at Axios ... Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Tex.) is 69 ... Cesar Gonzalez, COS for Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart ... former Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) is 59 ... DNC comms staffer and former HRC campaign media booker Lucas Acosta (h/t Crystal Carson) ...
... Will Rahn, managing editor for politics at CBS News digital, is 3-0 ... Jessica Franks, gov’t affairs representative for Halliburton ... Politico Europe’s Tanit Parada Tur ... Chris Campbell, Republican staff director at Senate Finance ... Kristina Edmunson ... Rachel Ruskin ... Obama alum Jonathan McBride, now a managing director at BlackRock … Mike Schoenfeld, the Blue Devils’ master of public affairs/Duke’s other Mike … Betsy Gotbaum, former NYC public advocate, is 79 ... Matt Chaban, policy director at Center for an Urban Future ... Mary Kate Cunningham ... Salesforce’s Tom Gavin, an Obama WH OMB alum … Michael Froehlich ... Caroline Barker ... Matthew Campbell ... Vanessa Chan, corporate comms. at Facebook ... Kelly Danielka Peirson ... Google’s Ramya Raghavan ... Tom Alexander, COO at 1871 Chicago and a Rahm alum ... Jacque Vilmain, the pride of Eagle Grove, Iowa(h/t Teresa) ... animal rights activist Ingrid Newkirk is 68 ... Power Playbooker Dr. Oz is 57 ... actor Hugh Laurie is 58 ... Shia LaBeouf is 31 (h/ts AP)