bet365 Horse Form | Nag Me

Voy a hacer este DD dividiendolo en 4 fases:
1) ¿Quien es Michael Burry? El doctor e inversionista Michael Burry es conocido por ser uno de los pocos que predijo la crisis del 2008, y se benefició de ella de manera bestial, yendo en contra de las hipotecas subprime (algo asi como una inversión en corto). Tal fue el logro que Christian Bale lo interpretó en la aclamada película The Big Short (La gran apuesta). Se describe así mismo como una persona con un leve trastorno de autismo. Yo personalmente, lo vi siempre como el típico yankee obsesionado con la perfección en cada una de sus inversiones. Esto lo podemos ver en su selección de acciones con grandes valores fundamentales (aunque no le crean el tipo también la pego al bet de WSB "Gamestop"), el gran acierto de derivados financieros como sus calls y puts, y su elevada confianza en tener poca diversificación en cartera
2) ¿Por que me gusta el sector del gambling? En primer lugar, debo admitirles que siempre fui un fanático de ver el nivel de locura que manejaban algunas personas al ir al casino. Y no hablo solamente del juego en si, sino del elevado nivel de gastos de estas personas en lujosas habitaciones, costosos tragos o incluso comidas. Otra de las cosas que me llamo mucho la atención, es la preparación del ambiente, a través de su música, sus olores, o incluso la vestimenta de los empleados del lugar. Debemos recordar que personalidades con gran olfato para los negocios estuvieron en este sector, como lo son Sheldon Adelson o incluso el ex presidente Donald J. Trump. Ademas hagamos mención , de que últimamente una gran cantidad de compañas del sector están incursionando en el gambling online, el cual ha demostrado ser extremadamente rentable. Sino veamos el caso de BET365 y las apuestas deportivas.
3) ¿Por que estas 2 compañas? Primero y principal: Porque todas las personas del grupo tienen la posibilidad de invertir a través de la bolsa local mediante al acción de $BOLT y el cedear de $LVS. Yo personalmente vengo viendo a estas dos compañas con gran hambre, y comencé a invertir en ambas en la caída de marzo, iniciando posiciones muy pequeñas que fueron creciendo a lo largo del tiempo.
4) Analisis de ambas compañas:
Las Vegas Sands: Esta es una de las compañas mas monopólicas del sector, principalmente en los mercados de Macao (recordemos que en China los casinos están prohibidos, por lo que las personas suelen ir a barcos en el área marítima de Hong Kong o directamente a Macao) y en Singapur. Tambien debemos recordar que sus casinos mas emblemáticos, los posee en Las Vegas como su nombre lo indica, pero que los últimos años, pasaron a ser una menos del 30% de los ingresos que produce la compaña. Personalmente Adelson nunca tuvo la iniciativa de comenzar a incursionar en el sector del gambling online, pero ahora que falleció hace poco, es probable que la nueva dirección tenga iniciativa viendo la gran competencia en el sector. Particularmente, si realizamos un análisis minucioso de sus finanzas podemos ver que la acción esta en un precio con gran descuento, si tenemos en cuenta que el EVITDA que genera a día de hoy la compaña es demasiado bajo por la situación del COVID-19. Para que se den una idea, cotiza a precios de 2005 en las ultimas ruedas. Debemos recordar que esta compaña, cuenta con una gran cartera de clientes VIP, que no reparan gastos para poder ver a personalidades del espectáculo, comer las mejores comidas, escuchar a sus DJs de moda favoritos, o jugar grandes sumas de dinero en sus casinos. Y por supuesto, el mercado asiático esta creciendo a tasas agigantadas. Lo negativo es que la compaña tiene unos ratios de endeudamiento bastante altos. Ademas corren varios rumores de que la compaña piensa enfocarse totalmente en el mercado asiático, y vender sus casinos en Las Vegas, cosa que para algunos puede ser negativa, pero para mi es una excelente decisión, ya que los ingresos que produce en ese lugar son mucho menores.
Boldt: Esta compaña la decidí incluir personalmente sobre todo porque es una de las empresas mas infravaloradas del MERVAL. Si vemos sus últimos estados contables, podemos ver unas perdidas billonarias, pero aun así, la compaña cuenta con una solvencia a corto plazo envidiable para afrontar sus deudas menores a 12 meses, superando por amplio margen sus activos corrientes a sus pasivos corrientes. Otra de las razones por las que pienso que sus fundamentales la acompañaran a largo plazo, es que hace muy poco tiempo, la compaña comenzó sus casinos online. Debemos de tener en cuenta que la situación económica en la Argentina es muy inestable, y que la economía no acompaña el crecimiento de este tipo de empresas. Ni hablar de la burocracia. Pero esto también lo podemos ver de manera positiva, ya que este sector goza de una posición oligopólica regulada que podría llegar a beneficiarle.
Esto es todo, es mi primer análisis en profundidad para esta comunidad. Gracias a todos los que llegaron hasta acá. La verdad que no quería entrar en tantos tecnicismos, y prefería analizar a las compañas de una manera fundamental "mas entendible" para todos los miembros del grupo. Si desean aportar o comentar sus opiniones siéntanse libres de hacerlo. Muchas gracias a todos! Vamos por mucho mas 🚀 🚀 🚀

Leicester City (pronounced Les-ter), or the Foxes, are a relatively insignificant team. They are often fighting for a mid-table place in the Premier League, just as often slugging it out in lower leagues.
The way the league works is simple: 20 teams play against each other, at home and away, adding up to 38 matches in total. You get 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss, and the team with the most points at the end of the season wins. Unlike in American sports, there are no playoffs in the Premier League. This means that a team can't make it to the playoffs, then catch fire and take the trophy home. No one wins the Premier League by luck or by going on a hot streak at just the right time. They win by being consistently the best over the course of a year. It's not at all unusual for an underdog team to get off to a great start, before eventually dropping down the table as their good form inevitably wears off. It's a long and psychologically grueling season, and it's difficult to keep up the same level over a year, especially once star players get injuries. Over the course of an entire season, the top teams rise to where they belong. A team can easily finish last despite beating the eventual champions. Imagine if the Miracle on Ice players had to play in a league over an entire year - would they finish above the Soviet Union? A title-winning team needs not just to have star players, but also a sufficiently deep squad so that other top quality players can step in when the stars are injured. This is why "little" teams simply do not win the league.
In addition, the Premier League is ruthlessly capitalist. Teams that finish poorly don't get first pick of promising young players, but are instead severely punished with relegation (more on that in the next paragraph). There are no salary caps. The teams with the most money buy up the best players, and those that win trophies and enter elite competitions like the Champions League get huge cash prizes, and attract even more top players, perpetuating the cycle of inequality. Top teams also have the best trainers, the best physios, the best facilities, the best talent scouts. There is a huge disparity in resources and quality between the top teams and the bottom ones, and no real mechanisms to even things up. The same teams almost always finish in the top 4. From 1992-2015 only five teams won the Premier League. The last time a team won the league without having won it before was 38 years ago.
Finishing in the bottom 3 positions (out of 20) is not just humiliating; it's utterly disastrous. It means being relegated to a lower division, which means a subsequent loss of TV money, less fans coming to the stadium since they won't get to see any games against "big" teams and players, and an inevitable loss of that team's best players, who don't want to settle for playing in the lower divisions, and whose salaries the club probably can't afford with the reduced income. Meanwhile, the top 2 finishing teams from the lower division secure automatic promotion, while those who place 3-6 will go to a playoff to decide who will clinch that third promotion spot. The promotion and relegation system makes the stakes incredibly high, and a team that has been relegated may struggle years to go back to the top flight, if they ever make it back at all.
Ok, back to Leicester. An 18th-place finish in the 2003-04 season saw Leicester relegated to the Championship (the second division of English football). The next few years they would struggle to retain their position in the Championship. After a poor 2007-08 season, they sank even lower to League One (which, confusingly, is the third division of English football).
They would climb their way back out of League One at the first attempt. The following season, Leicester were widely touted as favourites to win promotion back to the Premier League, but the next three seasons would prove disappointing. In 2013 they finally barely snuck into 6th place, high enough to secure a place in the play-offs for a promotion spot, but lost in absolutely incredible fashion to Watford.
It was the semi-final of the play-offs, a two-legged tie. Leicester saw out the first match in a 1-0 win. Next they had to go to Watford to see out the tie. Watford fought back on their turf, and as the match was winding down the score was 2-1, meaning that on aggregate they stood tied at 2-2. Extra time, and perhaps a penalty shootout beckoned. Then, with just a few seconds left on the clock, Leicester were awarded a penalty to book their spot into the final. What happened next... I will not even describe. Do yourself a favour and watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWSc3-NACSY
Following this heartbreak, Leicester would come back stronger, finishing in first place in 2013-14, securing automatic promotion after 10 years out of the top flight.
Their first season back started promisingly, with a few initial decent results, most notably a stunning 5-3 win over Manchester United. Then misery followed, and after months of terrible results Leicester sat rock bottom with only 9 matches left to play. It looked certain that the door back into the Championship stood open after just one season with the big boys.
Incredibly, Leicester managed to win 7 of their last 9 matches to secure probably the most miraculous escape in Premier League history, finishing the season safely in 14th place.
Scandal struck the club during the summer. A sex tape of three Foxes players having an orgy in a Bangkok hotel room with some Thai women leaked out. The players shouted racist abuse including "slit eye." One of the players happened to be the son of Foxes manager Nigel Pearson. Leicester's Thai owner was not amused, and Pearson and the three players were subsequently let go. The inspirational manager who had dragged Leicester out of the Championship and led them to that miraculous escape would not be there to guide the ship the following season.
No one was particularly impressed with Pearson's replacement, Claudio Ranieri. He had not managed any Premier League team since Chelsea in 2004 – back in 2004 he was shown the door by new billionaire investor Roman Abramovich, who felt Ranieri wasn’t a sufficiently glamorous manager and brought in Jose Mourinho. Ranieri had since had mixed success with various Italian teams, and his most recent job was manager of Greece – a job that ended in disgrace after just a few months, following a humiliating defeat by the Faroe Islands (yes, that place with a population of 50 thousand which is not even a country). In retrospect, there was a precedent for what Ranieri was about to do with Leicester - in two seasons at Monaco he led the club out of the French Ligue 2 (less confusingly, the second division in France) and the next season finished in second place with 80 points, the highest points tally ever achieved by a team in the French league without winning. Still, he had been unbelievably unimpressive at Greece.
Things did not look good for Leicester. Ranieri was the odds-on favourite to be the first to lose his job. Their squad was made up mostly of unknown players and a few scraps from the table of bigger clubs, including Robert Huth and Danny Simpson, discarded from Chelsea and Manchester United, respectively, for not being good enough (Huth, in fairness, had since made a name for himself as a rock-solid defender at Stoke, but he seemed by now to be past his prime). Their most expensive signing of the summer was N’Golo Kante, brought in from French team Caen - not exactly a blockbuster signing. With this context, it's easy to understand why, going into the 2015-16 season, Leicester were favourites for relegation.
Leicester came flying out in their first match with a 4-2 win over Sunderland, and went undefeated their first 6 matches, the only Premier League team to do so. After a 2-5 spanking at home by contenders Arsenal, their hot streak appeared to be over, and the universe seemed to be back in order.
Undeterred, the Foxes would continue flying. They played extremely energetic, rapid, and deadly counter-attacking football. They were well organized at the back, with all the players knowing their jobs, doing them well, winning the ball and getting it quickly into one of their devastating counter-attacks, sprinting across the pitch like a pack of wild, well, foxes. And three previously unknown quantities – N’Golo Kante, Riyad Mahrez, and Jamie Vardy, started pulling off astonishing performances. As they continued winning week after week, the pundits picked up on a fascinating statistic: 28-year-old goalscorer Jamie Vardy was about to become a record-breaker. But first, more about Vardy. If you thought this was an impressive rags-to-riches story up until now, you haven’t heard anything yet.
Jamie Vardy dreamt of being a professional footballer, but at the age of 16 he was released from the youth academy of Sheffield Wednesday, a team now playing in the Championship. He wasn’t cut out for it. Nevertheless Vardy kept playing semi-professionally for minnows Stocksbridge Park Steels, a team in the seventh tier of English football. He would spend 7 years there, working 12-hour shifts at a factory to support himself and playing on the weekends for £30 a match. At one point, after being charged with assault (according to Vardy, he was sticking up for a deaf friend that was being picked on), he had a 6pm curfew enforced and had to wear an ankle bracelet. Sometimes he had to be subbed off an hour into a match so he could jump into his dad's car to avoid breaking his curfew.
After some impressive displays, he was signed by Halifax Town, a team then in the sixth tier. He finished as the league’s top goalscorer and helped his team win promotion before signing for Fleetwood Town, now in the fifth tier. Again he finished top scorer, and again he helped his team win promotion. His impressive performances got him a call from Leicester. Finally, in 2012, at the age of 25, when most players would expect to have a few years of experience behind them, Vardy could call himself a pro.
Vardy’s first season was poor, prompting criticism from sceptical fans: what the hell was Leicester thinking, signing a player from three divisions below? However in the 2013-14 season he started showing what he could do, and his 16 goals helped Leicester to get back into the Premier League. Early on in the next season, he turned in a man-of-the-match performance against Manchester United, scoring one goal and setting up the other four in that 5-3 win. Along with the rest of his team, he would fail to make much of a mark for the rest of the season, but came to life at the crucial moment, playing a key role in Leicester’s miraculous escape.
Like Leicester, Vardy got off to a blistering start to the 2015-16 season, scoring in the first match of the season. Failing to net in the next two games, he then scored again in the fourth match. And in the fifth. And in the sixth. Twice in the seventh. He scored again in the eighth. Twice in the ninth. And in the tenth. By the twelfth match of the season, Jamie Vardy, who five years earlier worked in a factory, was the top goalscorer of the most competitive league in the world, and he had now scored nine games in a row.
The Premier League record for goals scored in most consecutive matches, 10, had been set in 2002 by Manchester United legend Ruud van Nistelrooy, one of the greatest attacking players since the new millennium. Could Vardy match the great van Nistelrooy?
Could he ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUKsTmDjEb0
Having equaled the record, there was one more challenge left: could he BEAT it? Well, what better opposition to go for it than against Manchester United themselves?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot80PrLmkv0
By the way, did I mention that Vardy did all of this with a broken wrist?
At the end of 2015, Leicester made history: they were the only team to ever go from being bottom of the league on Christmas Day one season to top of the league on Christmas Day the next season. Meanwhile, Ranieri got his revenge over Abramovich and Mourinho: Leicester City's victory over Chelsea on December 14 was the final straw in an incomprehensibly dreadful season for defending champions Chelsea. Jose Mourinho, the glamorous manager brought in all those years ago to replace the unfashionable Ranieri, was fired from his second stint at the club that catapulted him to true stardom.
Thanks for playing, Leicester, everyone said. But it’s time for the fairytale to end. Surely these plucky underdogs would start to feel the pressure, would fall apart at some point?
Last weekend was the true test. Leicester faced title favourites Manchester City. Manchester City, until very recently, were a club mired in mediocrity, having undergone a long decline after some golden years in the late 60s. In 2008, the club was purchased by the Abu Dhabi United Group, a private equity company owned by Sheik Mansour bin Zayed al Nahyan, a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family. Overnight, this once middling team was one of the richest in the world. A slew of huge money signings brought a wealth of talented players, finally translating into first place success in the league in 2012 and 2014. Manchester City are for many a symbol of everything that is wrong with the hyper-capitalist world of football: all you need is a billionaire investor with a blank check, and the success will come.
Just to put the gap in resources into context between these two teams: Leicester’s starting line-up cost a grand total of £22.5 million to put together. Last summer, Manchester City brought in Raheem Sterling for a reported £49 million.
That’s right: ONE of Manchester City’s players cost more than TWICE AS MUCH money as Leicester’s ENTIRE first team put together.
Surely, surely, order would be restored?
Well, Leicester hadn’t read the script. http://www.fullmatchesandshows.com/2016/02/06/manchester-city-vs-leicester-city-highlights-full-match/
It was vintage Leicester: good organisation combined with terrifyingly fast counter-attacks. They went to the richest team in the country, and they didn’t just beat them. They carved them apart, repeatedly, in front of their fans, on their own turf. And they did it in a thrilling, entertaining way that was an advertisement to everyone about why this sport is so great. Player-of-the-season Riyad Mahrez was at his scintillating best, bamboozling the Manchester City defence with a brilliant goal. N'Golo Kante was huge in midfield, charging down the ball and starting counter-attacks. Robert Huth, the Chelsea reject, was a beast at the back and bagged himself two goals.
Leicester now sit five points clear on first place. They are well over the halfway mark. No one is talking any longer about when they will fall away. They are odds-on favourites to take the whole thing. If they do, it will be an unbelievable accomplishment. This weekend, they travel to London to take on contenders Arsenal, one of only two teams who have beaten them (the other being Liverpool) early in the season. Whatever happens, it will be thrilling.
EDIT: LEICESTER ARE CHAMPIONS. UNBELIEVABLE. Since more people are being linked to this post I've added a couple more explanations on how the league system basically works, for those that know very little, and corrected a couple factual inaccuracies (yes, Manchester City fans, you are absolutely right, Leicester and Man City did not have a similar amount of titles before 2008, sorry about that).
Also bet365 has 100/1 odds on Leicester winning the Champions League next season. It's not quite 5000/1 but it might be worth putting a quid on it.
My inbox has not been silent at pretty much any point during the last few months. The replies I've most enjoyed getting have been the "I don't usually watch this sport but this season I'm watching every game." Welcome to the greatest sport in the world.
I'm still getting over this. If you had told anyone a year ago that Wes Morgan would be one of the top defenders of the season, or Kasper Schmeichel one of the top goalkeepers, you would have been ridiculed. If you had started raving over Riyad Mahrez (now officially Player of the Season), you would have gotten a one-word response: "who?"

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