I’ve ruined my life – Gambling Therapy

gambling has destroyed my life

gambling has destroyed my life - win

I have said it’s my last time like 5 times and I last a month or two or a few and then I come back and do it again. I dont know how to stop for good. Gambling has destroyed my life and my finances, I need help. Any advice is helpful.

submitted by ndjdjdnsnsbd to problemgambling [link] [comments]

How gambling has completely destroyed my life as an 18 year old

I made a post at the end of last month going into more detail. But in short, I lost my entire life’s saving on sports gambling and since then have only blown every paycheck I’ve gotten on gambling
I feel extremely depressed and suicidal and hate myself to no end
My only advice would be to never gamble more then you are ok with losing
submitted by lostman107 to problemgambling [link] [comments]

"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)

I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

submitted by Tharnite to GlobalOffensive [link] [comments]

How to Survive Camping - don't follow the gummy bears either

I run a private campground. It’s been in my family for generations. For those of you with a rich family history, I’m sure you know how stories tend to accumulate. They get passed along haphazardly from one generation to the next, distorting as they do, and the truth grows muddy along the way. Land is like that too, except instead of gathering stories about Aunt Jodi’s scandalous first husband, it gathers monsters.
If you’re new here, you should really start at the beginning and if you’re totally lost, this might help.
There’s a lot to do to maintain a campground and I’ve been having to do a lot of the work myself around here. I don’t want my winter staff going into the deep woods without a good reason right now. Normally I’d send Bryan, as he has the dogs to protect him, but those are on loan. Also, I haven’t seen a lot of Bryan. He shows up, he gets the work done that he needs to, and then he just… vanishes for a while. I don’t know if he’s visiting his dogs or the fairy or both. And now that I think about it, Bryan tends to make himself scarce throughout the year. I guess I haven’t paid that close of attention before. He still gets the job done just fine so does it really matter if he’s off visiting his fairy bff in his downtime?
Unfortunately, even with the spiders’ help, I’m still battling the thorns in my chest. It’s taking a lot of my strength away and I’m getting winded easier. It’s made getting rid of these accursed things a priority. I know the fairy said they’d go away when they killed the fomorian, but as many of you have pointed out, they’re taking their sweet time going about that.
I do have a theory about the current stalemate, though. The fomorian probably wants the thorns to cover more of the campground. The fairy probably wants the sun to return, being of the company of Lugh and all. And both of them probably want less treacherous footing for their steeds.
I see the dapple gray stallion’s hoofprints in the snow sometimes. It makes it easy to avoid. I just turn around and immediately go in the opposite direction.
With this surefire way of avoiding my nemesis, I figured it was time to try a gamble. The fairy initially told me that I could try finding a way to banish the thorns by seeking out another entity of disease. I’ve taken that to mean the gummy bears. Their presence has brought sickness and rot before. The only problem was I really wasn’t sure how to find anything out from them. Did I use their bodies in an elixir? Did they have the answers themselves? There was a human shaped gummy bear, at least until one of Byran’s dogs splattered it. Perhaps there’s more intelligence among them than I thought.
I decided to try out one of Mattias’s strategies. He learned a lot about these creatures simply by being close to them. Following their paths through the woods.
I figured the worst that would happen is I’d wander around the forest for a bit and maybe feel a little stupid.
...okay, that’s really not the worst that could happen, considering the upheaval my land is experiencing, but barring any other catastrophe it wasn’t that dangerous of a plan.
Or at least, the first part wasn’t.
I got some dead mice from the pet store to bait the traps with. They weren’t very big, so I didn’t expect to attract any of the larger gummy bears. This was perfectly fine with me. I was in no hurry for another encounter like the last one, especially with the dogs on loan to the fairy. I baited the traps and left them scattered throughout the deep woods.
Within a couple days the traps yielded results. I found the jellied remains of a rabbit inside one of the traps, staring at me with glistening eyes, its translucent ears quivering. I crouched beside the cage.
“I’m going to let you out,” I said. “Don’t try to bite me or I’ll drop-kick you into the afterlife.”
Just to be safe, I released the gummy bear with the cage door pointing away from me. The rabbit bolted and I sprinted after it, only to lose it within seconds. So the worst case scenario came true, I felt real dumb there, standing in the woods and belatedly realizing that I couldn’t actually keep up with a rabbit.
The second gummy bear I caught was a raccoon. That’s still not something I was convinced I could keep up with, so I took the liberty of breaking both of its hind legs before I released it. The bones snapped like dry branches. The gummy bear hissed wetly and bared its yellowed teeth at me, but otherwise didn’t seem to be in pain. I’m not sure if this qualifies as animal cruelty and frankly, I’m trying not to think about it too hard.
This time, I had no problem keeping up with the gummy bear once it was released. It dragged itself along by its forelegs, seemingly oblivious to the dangling appendages that trailed behind it. Our progress was slow and I impatiently began to wonder if perhaps I should have only broken one. There was nothing I could do about it now. The gummy bear would turn and hiss at me if I got too close, so I kept a healthy distance between us.
And I followed it. I honestly had no idea where it would lead me, but Mattias’s journal implies that he learned everything he did by being close to these inhuman things. The world is less stable when they’re nearby, he claimed. Things slip through.
It took a long time. I was tempted to quit and go home repeatedly and each time I had to remind myself to have patience. Mattias surely had, as he didn’t have the siren call of the internet luring him away. The raccoon made a circle of the deep woods, its pace consistent, dragging its broken legs behind it. It moved with purpose. It stayed off the road, but I caught glimpses of gravel now and again through the barren trees. After a little while I realized that it was slowly but surely turning, heading back towards the hill that led up and out of the forest.
I was beginning to think this had all been a waste of time and I should just finish the thing off. Watching it drag itself all through the woods for the past couple of hours had stirred an acute sense of guilt about this entire affair. Killing something was one thing. That’s a matter of life and death, generally. But crippling something like this… perhaps there’s more of my father in me than I thought. He’s in the quiet spaces of my soul and most of the time I can’t hear him over the roar of my anger.
I heard him now.
I steeled my resolve and hefted the crowbar I’d brought along for just this purpose. Blunt weapons are the best tool for destroying gummy bears. Sharp edges can cut pieces off them, but that won’t necessarily slow them down. Even if you cut it in half you could get unlucky and the pieces might reconnect and join back together and then you got a gummy bear with its ass literally stuck to its shoulder flailing around and trying to bite you.
Blunt trauma, however, separated the parts beyond repair. Like dropping a cherry pie on the floor. You aren’t getting that back together in a cohesive form. And like an exploding cherry pie, the gummy bear burst into a gooey red smear that coated the nearby ground and splattered on the trees when I brought the crowbar down into the center of its body.
Something like smoke hovered over the ground. It was only there for a second. I might have missed it, had I not been watching. Ever since my encounter with the human sized gummy bear I’ve been thinking about what I saw and experienced and wondering if I’d imagined it. But there it was. A miasma. An ill wind carrying sickness to anyone that inhaled it. It rolled away from me, traveling uphill, and then it passed between two trees and was gone.
I almost walked away. But something stirred in the back of my mind, sluggishly connecting the pieces. Dropping each thing that had happened into place until the pattern was evident.
I’d followed it around the old woods. We’d made a circle and were now at where we’d begun. Except sometimes… when walking in a circle with intent… you don’t actually wind up back where you started.
There are other worlds inside my campground. Many more than what I have encountered already, according to my ancestor.
I walked after the smoke and passed between the two trees and they creaked as I went by them, bending their heads to twine their branches so that I passed under an arch and then…
I was elsewhere.
The hall. I’d found the hall of the gummy bears.
I need to stop using such stupid names for the things on my campground.
The structure was of primitive construction. The ceiling was thatched and birds flew between the rafters. There were no windows and the only light came from candles burning in sconces on the wall. The air was thick with the stink of rancid fat and smoke. I tried to take shallow breaths and walked slowly forwards across the rushes strewn over the dirt floor. Small things rolled and broke under my feet. I did not look closer to see what they were. They felt like bone fragments.
The hall continued on for a long time. The darkness swallowed me up and I could only see a handful of yards in any direction. The columns supporting the roof blurred together, each one the same as the last. Round posts with the bark roughly hewn off, painted in ochre tones of yellow and red. Primitive colors made from the earth. This place was very old, a remnant from the earliest edges of human civilization.
I reached the end of the hall. At first I took the back wall for a mosaic, dark wood interspersed with ivory points of varying sizes. Then, as I drew closer, the shapes resolved themselves. Skulls. The back wall was covered with skulls. Animal skulls of all sizes. I recognized groundhogs, squirrels, deer, and a couple coyotes.
A platform of rough hewn stone was built against the back wall. On it sat a chair, backless, with a rounded seat of hide stretched between two ornate arms. The carvings that covered the legs and arms were the only intricate decoration I’d seen in this entire place.
I crept closer to the chair, trying to get a better look. It was then that I noticed there was something strange about the mortar holding the stones together.
It glistened in the faint candlelight, like a fatty cut of meat.
I drew up short with a sudden sense of unease. Nervously, I hefted the crowbar, taking confidence in its weight. I held still and listened to my surroundings, intently searching for any noise, any sign that something was urgently amiss.
A rattling in the corner. Like the scuttling of tiny claws. I pivoted to face it, just in time to see one of the skulls fall off the wall.
It did not strike the ground. It stopped just short, as if falling into thick snow, and then it tilted gently to one side and went motionless. Smoke condensed beneath it, barely discernible in the dim light of the candles.
It felt like it was staring at me.
Then it was gone, swiftly flowing out of sight the instant I blinked. Heart pounding, I watched the shadows, trying to discern where it had gone. But behind me I heard another noise, like the scrape of claws, and I turned to face it just as another skull fell from the wall. This, too, was caught by the smoke.
I felt like my heart was ready to burst from my chest. The rushing of my own blood echoed in my ears. I licked my dry lips and waited, my eyes darting back and forth in a vain attempt to watch all angles. The room was silent. I couldn’t depend on my hearing. How would smoke make noise?
The first came from my right. It swept in low, the smoke billowing like the incoming tide. I turned on my heel and brought the crowbar down in an overhead swing. It connected just as the creature surged upwards, the empty eye sockets leering. The mid part of the crowbar crushed through the skull and into the brain cavity and the smoke dispersed as if flattened, floating back down to the ground.
Blunt teeth raked against my shoulder. I hissed and spun, swiping sideways with the crowbar as I did. It passed through the column of smoke and the creature faltered, as if losing its balance, and a follow-up swing sent the skull tumbling away in three separate pieces.
More skulls were rattling on the wall. Three fell. Then two more. They were quickly swallowed up in the darkness, only to emerge seconds later, lunging at me from the shadows. I would dispatch one with a well-aimed blow and then turn to counter another. Or feel the bite of their teeth. I could only be thankful there was no jawbone with which to crush whatever limb they latched onto when they had an opening. Still, the teeth broke skin. I barely felt the pain underneath the adrenaline.
They were aiming for my throat. For my abdomen. And for every one I dispatched, another couple skulls would fall.
Then there was another sound, overwhelming the rattling of the skulls or my own frantic breathing. Laughter. A gurgling, wet laugh, emanating from the direction of the throne. I risked taking my eyes off the shadows and saw that the mortar holding the stones together was not… actually… mortar.
It was flesh. Jellied, translucent flesh. And it was seeping upwards, congealing on top of the dais, working its way up the legs of the throne.
And it was laughing.
“Send them all!” I screamed at the dais. “I’ll smash every skull on that damn wall if I have to!”
There were so many now. They crowded between the columns, lines of ivory skulls bobbing on a thick carpet of smoke. I exhaled slowly, trying to steady my nerves. I could do this, I told myself. I was stronger than them. Their teeth could not pierce very far and so I only had to outlast them and protect my vitals. And hadn’t Beau taught me how to outlast?
“Go on,” I growled. “My name is Kate. I’ve killed inhuman things before and I’ll destroy all of you as well if I have to.”
The chuckling finally stopped with a final, satisfied note echoing down the long hall. Panting, I pivoted, watching as the creatures receded into the shadows between the columns. Finally, only once the silence returned and nothing else came out of the darkness at me, did I turn and give my full attention to the mass at the fore of the room.
It covered the throne as a shapeless mound of flesh the color of an onion. A quivering lump fully the height of a human and just as wide, the chair hazy behind the translucent jelly. As I watched, small shapes detached from the dais. Stones, two the size of my fist and the rest the size of walnuts. These slowly made their way up through the entity’s body until they floated in the middle of the space between the arms of the chair. The larger stones positioned themselves as eyes and the rest became teeth. The teeth split apart and it began to speak.
“Have you brought me tribute?” it gurgled.
“No,” I replied.
“Then you are an intruder.”
All around me, the skulls shifted, moving forwards a pace. I resisted the urge to raise my weapon once more.
“That is not my intent either.”
“Ahhhhh.” The teeth spread into a smile. “Then you are a supplicant.”
“Are you a king of the Partholanians?” I asked.
Those ancient people of Ireland who died of disease.
“It has been a long time since I’ve heard their name,” it replied thoughtfully. “We are of them. They had a name for our hall. It has since been forgotten.”
I briefly considered telling it what we call them, but quickly squashed the idea. I didn’t want to cause myself more problems by naming it and I certainly didn’t want to name it “the hall of the gummy bears” I mean that’s a terrible name.
DO NOT CALL IT THAT IN THE COMMENTS.
“There’s thorns on my land,” I said. “They’re rotting the trees.”
“So you seek us?”
“They say the Partholanians died of disease.”
“You are a supplicant, here to beg a boon,” it hissed.
My heart sank. Another bargain. It named what it wanted with no small measure of malicious joy and I knew before it finished that I would not be able to grant what it wanted.
It asked for bodies. Human bodies. Not these weak animals that they steal here and there, filling their wretched, dead corpses with the spirits of its people until the flesh dissolved to pieces around them and they came fluttering back here, to this last refuge of its kind. It wanted living flesh. Strong flesh, that they could inhabit and walk among the living once more.
I said that wasn’t possible. I offered it dead human bodies. It was something, at least, and I could obtain those. The funeral home might be willing to help. I only needed to fulfill the bargain long enough to get a remedy for the thorns, I thought desperately.
The creature refused. They were tired of inhabiting dead things, bodies that had already given up on life and could not be restored. It wanted a heart that remembered how to beat and lungs that knew how to breathe.
“And what of the person that inhabits that flesh?” I asked.
“Perhaps the soul will stay. Perhaps it will depart. I do not care.”
If I did this, it said, it would give me what I needed to stop the rot. I took a deep breath. And I agreed to its bargain. It shook with pleased laughter.
“One last question,” I said. “Why can’t you get a body of your own making, like how the other creatures on my campground have?”
Beau says he remembers being on my land, walking down the road looking for someone to share his drink with. He came from somewhere, as did the hammock monster and the lady with extra eyes and all the others.
“The watcher will not let us pass,” it hissed. “We are too weak. We cannot take form. We can only steal, scavenging the scraps. It is a shameful survival. Do you pity us?”
“No,” I said quickly.
“Nor do we pity you. We see your death sometimes, lurking in the woods.”
“My death?” I asked desperately. “The beast? Or something else?”
It chuckled, a sickening gurgling sound, like boiling mud.
“Bring me bodies,” it said, “and perhaps I will tell you more.”
I recognized the dismissal. I turned and walked away, the skin on the back of my neck crawling under the weight of all those empty eyes watching me go. The doors to the hall hung open for me and when I passed through, the trees unwound themselves and the arch and the hall were gone. There were only the snow-laden branches of the campground.
I’m a campground manager. I have no intention of honoring this bargain. I admit that it is tempting to give some of my more problematic campers to them. Heck, for some of them, being a flesh vessel for the decaying soul of an unborn monster of ancient times would probably be a personality improvement. However, as I’ve discussed before, the town does not look kindly on bargains with evil things. They turn a blind eye to the campground for the most part since we contain the evil things, but I feel this might cross a line. There’s no direct benefit for the townsfolk, after all. I’m not keeping something away from them. The gummy bears are stuck here already. If anything, I’m throwing innocent people into their maw just to make them stronger.
I don’t think they’d accept it being worth the sacrifice to get rid of the thorns, either. They tend to be rather short-sighted. It would take the thorns consuming the campground and overflowing into their land for them to accept the necessity of such a bargain. I don’t have enough time to wait for that.
And I don’t know… it’s kind of nice to be the heroine sometimes. Maybe this is my father’s legacy coming out. He always wanted to save people.
So I’m going to cheat. That’s one of the strengths of humanity. We can freely use deceit. I just need a willing accomplice.
And I know exactly who to ask. [x]
Read the full list of rules.
Visit the campground's website.
submitted by fainting--goat to nosleep [link] [comments]

In 1567, Lord Darnley died after an explosion at Kirk o’Field, smothered near the wreckage of his home. Who murdered Darnley, the dissolute husband of Mary Queen of Scots and a man of many enemies, and how much did Mary know? A set of Mary's letters might have the answer—if they're authentic.

Lord Darnley was not a man mourned by many. Today, his short and indolent life is overshadowed by his legendary wife and the circumstances of his death. But even today, more than four hundred years later, those circumstances are, in many ways, still a mystery. Of the hundreds who would have loved to see him dead—lords, lovers, and ‘friends alike—could his wife have orchestrated his murder? And what of the strange letters that seem to incriminate her?
Note: This is several mysteries wrapped up in one, so, fair warning, it’s disgustingly long. it's also another I have no idea how to tag. Murder? Lost artifact? It's 3AM and I don't care anymore. Apologies for the clunky title, too.
Life:
Lord Darnley, as he is commonly referred to, was born Henry Stuart sometime in 1545. In his infancy, his father—an earl—was found guilty of treason and exiled to England. Darnley received a classical education and was the model of a carefree noble’s son. Eventually, his father’s title was reinstated. Now, Darnley was an ideal candidate for any noblewoman in search of a husband.
One such woman was Mary Queen of Scots, Darnley’s cousin. Mary was taken with him immediately, but not all were; as Sir Walter Scott put it, “Young Darnley was remarkably tall and handsome, perfect in all external and showy accomplishments, but unhappily destitute of sagacity, prudence, the steadiness of character, and exhibiting only doubtful courage, though extremely violent in his passions.” Mary was not dissuaded, and they wed in July 1565, much to the displeasure of Queen Elizabeth. To no one’s surprise, the marriage was not a happy one.
Mary faced incredibly high expectations as the only surviving legitimate child of James V of Scotland and, as many considered her, the legitimate heir to England’s throne. Darnley was not a partner with whom she could share her burdens; instead, he was “shallow, vain, weak, indolent, selfish, arrogant, vindictive and irremediably spoiled.” Darnley spent his days gambling and avoiding court business and his nights with women of ill repute. But he was also prone to fits of jealousy, and was involved in the murder of Mary’s secretary, David Rizzio. Though Mary seemed to forgive him, many have questioned how genuine this was—for all that she was saddened by the unhappiness of her marriage, she was a consummate politician. Whatever the case, she tried, unsuccessfully, to obtain a divorce. Despite this, she gave birth to a son in 1566, and Darnley spent more and more time away from court.
Death:
As the distance between Mary and Darnley grew, Mary became closer to James Hepburn, Earl of Bothwell and Lord Admiral of Scotland. Like Darnley, Bothwell was known for his brutality, licentiousness, and pride. Unlike Darnley, Bothwell was power-hungry and cunning, though he was “more opportunist than strategist.” Darnley, perhaps aware of the close relationship between Mary and Bothwell, became sullen, and eventually, in 1567, took ill (possibly from syphilis) in Glasgow. Mary traveled to him, and decided he would be sent back to Edinburgh to recover at Kirk o’Field house, a small two-story dwelling in a church courtyard (now covered by modern-day Edinburgh, likely under the Old College). Soon after, Mary left to attend a wedding. Allegedly, she remembered she had to attend the wedding at the last minute, after previously saying she’d be spending the night with Darnley.
On February 10th (note: some sources say 9th), a gunpowder explosion destroyed the house. But the explosion didn’t kill Darnley—his body, along with the body of his attendant, was found in an orchard nearby, likely smothered, with a cloak, dagger, chair, and coat beside him. Darnley wore only his nightshirt.
The explosion was strong, powered by two barrels of gunpowder placed under Darnley’s bedroom, and another servant was killed by the blast, which rocked the nearby church buildings. But Darnley and his attendant were not in Darnley’s bedroom, where they almost certainly would have died instantly. What passed for an autopsy in 1567 was performed, revealing internal injuries likely from the explosion, but no visible marks, from strangulation or otherwise. Some contemporaries believed that the surgeons lied about the lack of external injuries, but they would have had few reasons to do so.
Theories & Suspicion:
The most likely scenario is that something—but what?—alerted Darnley to the danger he was in, and he escaped from the house with his attendant using the chair and rope found with them. A pursuer, likely the person or persons who set off the gunpowder, chased Darnley (who would still have been weak from illness), and strangled or smothered him. Alternatively, some think that the explosion was never meant to kill Darnley, merely cover it up—but when Darnley escaped before he could be killed and his body burned, he was murdered in the orchard instead. According to one witness, 12 men went through the gate into the courtyard, and after the explosion, another eleven went by. Witnesses presented a problem, however, because of the differing opinions on Darnley and Mary. But the real mystery isn’t how Darnley died. It’s who did it. Or rather, who ordered it.
Unsurprisingly, Darnley had no shortage of enemies, political or otherwise. As consort to Mary Queen of Scots and scion of a controversial family, dozens of people would have loved to see him dead, to say nothing of his personal unpopularity. In Kirk o’Field alone lived Duke James Hamilton, an enemy of Darnley’s family with whom he had competing claims for the succession of the Scottish throne and the Douglas family, an enemy of Darnley with whom Hamilton had connections. And that’s in addition to the many, many others who might have come to Kirk o’Field to kill the convalescing Darnley, who was, as rumors had it, stark raving mad from syphilis; the family of the murdered David Rizzio, for instance, was quite prominent. In killing Rizzio, Darnley had also committed two capital offenses—unprovoked murder and high treason—and there is a strong possibility that Darnley’s murder could have been an extrajudicial execution, since, as Consort to the Queen of Scotland, he never could have been tried. Another very viable suspect is James Stewart, Earl of Moray and Mary’s illegitimate brother, who may have been attempting to kill both Mary and Darnley to seize the throne; there is evidence that Mary was expected to be with Darnley that night, leading several historians to believe that the target was not only Darnley, but Mary. James has also been accused of having signed a bond with other Lords in December of the previous year, pledging to dispose of Darnley, which makes it just as likely that Darnley was the sole intended victim. Some even argue that if Bothwell or Mary did it, it might have been James Stewart whispering in their ears and manipulating them the entire time—two birds with one stone for him, getting rid of the troublesome Darnley and casting a pall of suspicion over his political rivals.
Bothwell & Mary:
Despite the pool of suspects, the likeliest to most people of the time was Bothwell, who was already considered an upstart with ideas above his station. According to him, thunder came out of the sky, burning the house and leaving Darnley’s body intact. But according to one lord’s memoirs, Bothwell’s servant would allow no one to see the body. he certainly had motive; Bothwell, remember, wanted power—with Darnley gone, Mary’s hand would likely be his, and everyone knew it. Bothwell was tried by Scotland’s privy council in April of that year in what was largely considered to be a sham trial and acquitted. Queen Elizabeth herself seems to have believed Bothwell was responsible, though she was tactful enough not to mention her opinion on Mary's alleged participation. Soon after, he married Mary. It is still debated whether Mary was a willing participant or not; according to her letters, she chose to marry him to protect herself and her country. It is most likely, however, that she was forced through violence or fear to marry Bothwell. As time passed, many still remained convinced that Bothwell, possibly with Mary’s help, had killed Darnley.
Despite his acquittal, Bothwell’s accused associates were not so lucky. One, a captain, was hanged—likely a scapegoat—and several others were hanged and quartered. One of these men claimed that he, under the orders of Mary and Bothwell, had placed gunpowder under Darnley’s room. He also claimed that Mary had given him a key to the cellar under the pretense of wanting a new bed, which is considered strong evidence for her involvement. Mary also did comparatively little to investigate Darnley’s death, especially when compared with her usual forthrightness. And, on the night of Darnley’s death, Mary posted no guards to his house, as she usually did. Allegedly, Mary—who had visited Darnley the day before his death—had also planned on spending the night with him, but had changed her mind. But despite the suspicion, little could be done to the Queen of Scots.
The Casket Letters:
One of the most interesting parts of the Kirk o’Field mystery are the Casket letters. Soon after Mary’s wedding to Bothwell, James Stewart—another possible suspect in Darnley’s death—rebelled, leading a group of ‘Confederate Lords.’ Bothwell fled to Scandinavia, where he was caught and imprisoned, and died in April 1578, in “appalling” conditions. Mary, however, was put under house arrest (castle arrest?) and abdicated in favor of her infant son, becoming the Regent of Scotland.
Rumors soon spread that she was abdicating because incriminating letters had been found proving her involvement in Darnley’s death. This seems to have begun with James Stewart, who told an ambassador (and not Queen Elizabeth) that he’d “heard of” someone having found letters from Mary to Bothwell about the murder. Then, the Bishop of London, Edmund Grindal, said he’d also heard of these letters, and that they showed Mary urging Bothwell to speed up the plot. According to a document from the Confederate Lords, these letters were found and disseminated before Mary’s abdication, and the existence of these letters was confirmed in a statement to Parliament confirming Mary’s abdication: “it is maist certain that sche wes previe, art and part (complicit) and of the actuale devise (plot) and deid of the foir-nemmit murther of her lawful husband the King our sovereign lord's father.” In the official charges against Mary, called Hay’s Articles, its alleged that a servant of hers was ordered to retrieve the letters but was caught and, after torture, gave the letters to Earl Morton, one of the Confederate Lords.
Thus far, the letters seem like little more than slander. But the so-called Casket letters were soon presented to a group of officers of Queen Elizabeth, and compared with known samples of her handwriting. The results—at least those released officially—were that the Casket letters were genuine. And, suspect as these results may seem, several other independent investigations revealed the same, even by those who wanted strongly to support Mary.
The collection itself, housed in the titular silver casket, contained eight letters, two marriage contracts, and twelve sonnets. The authenticity of the sonnets are questioned;, as one historian pointed out, they are far clumsier than what Mary would likely have written, and don’t fit the genre of “courtly love poetry” she would have known. The marriage contracts, which allegedly depict Mary and Bothwell’s union a full month before they’re known to have wed, seem to be an almost certain forgery, since they include excerpts from events that occurred after they were allegedly written, though some argue that the dates could easily have been either confused or deliberately miswritten. But the letters themselves, if true, are the most damning. The first two, known as “the short Glasgow Letter” and “the Long Glasgow Letter” (note: the texts of both are linked, beginning on page 127, as well as some excerpts. There are several translations, all of which differ, but the overall meaning is the same) allude most obliquely to a murder plot and affair between Mary and Bothwell. Some claim that the disparities in dates may be because all of the writings are Mary’s, but different dates were added later to make the Casket letters more incriminating.
Today, we would be able to compare Mary’s known writing to these letters and determine her guilt once and for all—but the letters are lost. They seem to have remained in Earl Morton’s possession until he was unexpectedly executed, after which they changed hands several times. Eventually, they ended up with the Earl of Gowrie, who refused to give them to Queen Elizabeth. Instead, they were given to King James VI, Mary’s son, and likely destroyed in 1584, though some still hope that they might have been hidden away. Several copies remain, one in French and the others translations into Scots and English. Now, whether or not the letters were authentic is almost impossible to ascertain, and as such, so is the true extent of Mary’s guilt, if she was guilty at all.
Final Thoughts & Questions:
The evidence against Bothwell—and perhaps Mary—certainly seems strong. But some, maybe conspiratorially, think that they were merely scapegoats. The English government certainly had reasons to want them gone, blamed for this crime and forever shadowed by it, their rule and chances for the throne destabilized. It certainly did shadow Mary for the rest of her life, and she never quite escaped suspicion. But Mary and Bothwell, as well as the English government, were clearly not alone in wanting Darnley gone, and the various nobles had motives that were just as strong. James Stewart, Earl of Moray, certainly ended up quite well; he flourished as regent of Scotland (note: before his own assassination where, fun fact, he was the first head of government assassinated via firearm) while Mary was eventually executed after a long period of captivity.
Interestingly, yet another mystery surrounds the events at Kirk o’Field. You may have noticed in my images the inclusion of sections from a sketch; this drawing, from soon after Darnley’s death, was created to summarize the murder scene. But several elements have been a source of confusion for hundreds of years; the artist includes, for instance, a group of riders in the corner. Those riders, however, were not mentioned in eyewitness testimonies until weeks later. How, then, did the artist know about them?
Sources:
https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/map-of-the-murder-of-lord-darnley-1567#
https://www.tudorsociety.com/10-february-1567-murder-henry-stuart-lord-darnley/
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/kirk-o-field/
https://www.rse.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Who-Killed-Lord-Darnley.pdf
https://www.historyextra.com/period/tudodownfall-mary-queen-scots-execution-murder-lord-darnley/
https://www.britain-magazine.com/carousel/who-killed-lord-darnley/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Lord_Darnley
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casket_letters
https://archive.org/stream/casketlettersmar00henduoft/casketlettersmar00henduoft_djvu.txt (the letters)
I genuinely thought this was going to be short. hahahahaha
submitted by LiviasFigs to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]

Unleashed pt. 52

 
First / Prev / Next
 
 
Alexa was sitting cross legged before Sassie, with Aiov lying casually on the German Shepherd’s back. She had a metal bowl in her lap with chunks of fresh meat for Aiov and cooked meat for her large canine protector. It had been a difficult time as the dog had missed Aaron more and more, to the point that she had begun to refuse food. Aiov's enthusiasm, however, seemed to help slightly in countering that refusal, and Alexa had found that feeding them together at least got some food into the lonely Earth ambassador.
She scratched at the dog’s head as Aiov happily chomped on another scrap of meat. “Look at that! You won’t be outdone by a leokit now, will you?” She placed a cube of seared meat before Sassie’s nose. She sniffed it twice before eating. “You’re going to be so spoiled by the time we get him back. We’ll both get in trouble.”
Aiov snuggled into the thick black and tan fur, using her paw to guide the next morsel into her mouth. Sassie managed a few more pieces before turning her head away with a grunt. Satisfied with what she had achieved Alexa gave a few more scraps to Aiov before placing the bowl into the recycler. The loudspeakers throughout the Rinoxian vessel blared a loud message announcing they had now crossed into Hive space and that their readiness was being moved to level three.
Her door chimed. Opening it, she found Allistan in his new Terran Wolves uniform. “You need to come quickly, the Porkchop Express has arrived.”
As she grabbed Aaron's old leather jacket, Sassie immediately rose to follow which caused Aiov to roll to the floor. "You come," she spoke to the dog, then turned to the distinctly unhappy leokit who had just lost her warm pillow. "You stay, sorry.”
They walked briskly through the corridors of the Rinoxian warship towards a secure meeting room which had two Terran Wolves outside the door. Their black uniforms and red collars were easily identifiable and they gave sharp salutes as Alexa approached. “I told you not to salute.”
The two guards lowered their hands sheepishly as the doors opened. Sassie immediately surged past Alexa to happily greet the returning crew members. She moved from Ranjaz to Jaym, receiving many scratches and hugs. Even Eruwenn and Cygna received a quick examination, but she soon stopped when no sign of Aaron could be found. The German Shepherd forlornly returned to Alexa's side as the Awakened took a seat at the meeting table. “Is the room secure?”
Cygna, now in a smart black uniform with white collar, stood. “We have taken additional precautions due to the sensitive information we will be discussing.”
Tilting her head, Alexa took in the Fae’Dan’s new clothing. “You’re one of us now?”
Eruwenn gave a slight chuckle. Aside from Alexa, she was the only one not in uniform. “She lost a game of dalcho, or two.”
“Seven.” Ranjaz said with a wicked grin. “Don’t worry, she’s actually been a fairly competent assistant. Aside from her gambling issues, obviously.”
Her head drooping to look at her feet, Cygna replied, “I swear by Tulseria’s right hand, I will get you back for this!”
The Kittran’s grin grew more predatory. “Wanna bet?”
There was a long table by the wall where Embar was fixing himself a drink, He turned, shaking his head. “I’m not sure I approve of your recruiting techniques.”
The Kittran shrugged. “She’s worth it – even broke the code on this.” He tossed the recovered device onto the table as Embar returned and took his seat opposite him. “And, you’re going to want a stronger drink, General.”
Curiosity piqued, Allistan took his seat, preparing his notepad and pen. “What did you find?”
Ranjaz was about to speak when Eruwenn held up her hand. “I think we should let General Embar read this first. He can take a moment before we all continue.”
Raising an eyebrow, Embar sat down in a nearby chair and connected the device to a non-networked datapad. “Why me?” He began scrolling through the files, tapping on icons and delving deeper. His breathing suddenly stopped, his face contorting. Disbelief morphed into anger, and as his body tensed, anger turned to white-hot rage. He placed the datapad down on the table before him and stood, walking back towards the drinks table. He lowered his head, his body radiating anger as his muscles clenched and unclenched, then raised his fist into the air and slammed it into the table. Bottles, glasses and everything else it had held went crashing to the ground as it buckled under force of his blow. “We’re going to kill every last one of those Sentinel bastards!”
No longer smiling, Ranjaz stood. “You’re Tulseria damned right we are.”
Jaym was sitting silently, but she pulled a rag from her pocket and dabbed at her tears. After they had fled from the casino she had tried to help crack the encryption on the stolen device. Part of her wished they never had, as its contents had disturbed her so much. Now that they had finally caught up with Alexa, Embar and the others who had been on the Rinoxian homeworld, she empathised deeply with the pain this information was bringing. “It’s so awful, I’m so sorry Embar.”
Eruwenn patted the young Arkellian on the shoulder to comfort her as she looked at the Rinoxian. “Please believe me, General Warbringer. The council knew nothing of this.”
Alexa picked up the datapad, using her nanites to more quickly access the information. She grit her teeth, biting back her anger, then passed it quickly to Allistan. “You need to read this. Then we need to plan our next move.” She looked at the back of the unmoving Rinoxian. “Embar?”
Embar slowly turned around, his jaw set, determination in his eyes. “We keep this quiet. We’re on an active mission and need everyone focused on the job at hand.”
Allistan went to click his pen as he read, but with a gasp the pen fell from his fingers. “We can’t keep quiet, the galaxy needs to see this.”
The Rinoxian nodded. “They will. When the time is right.”
 
 
It had been two cycles and the incursion fleet had advanced deep into Hive space. Over half of the force accompanying them were the Rinoxians under their new Galactic Federation commanders. There were over a dozen Galactic Federation ships along with six Gowe destroyers, and a dozen ships from other races including the Niham and Kah’Ree. Admiral Pelar, on board the Blazing Dawn, commanded four Ashi ships including the Righteous Fury.
The smallest craft by far was the Porkchop Express, a speck amongst titans. Its white painted hull, chrome bull bars and bright cartoon logo were a stark contrast to the military ships it accompanied. Sassie was more comfortable now that she was in familiar territory, and slept on a pile of Aaron’s clothes in his quarters.
Allistan and Alexa were sitting opposite Jar’Bek in his small office. The Ashi looked exhausted as he finally put down his datapad. “I’m sorry to have kept you.”
Allistan fidgeted in his seat. “Not at all, was that your mother again?”
Stiffening slightly at the use of the word mother the lawyer forced himself to relax again. “Admiral Pelar has informed us that they have been repeatedly scanned by the Gowe. She’s taking no action, as we’re supposed to be allies, but wanted you to be aware.” Alexa nodded and he continued. “When we arrive at the next system the commanders of each ship have been called to the Hooves of Destiny. Vice-Admiral Koo Ji has requested an in person meeting, with all senior officers.”
There were several pen clicks. “That seems unusual.”
Jar’Bek gave a knowing nod. “Extremely. To remove every ship’s command, behind enemy lines? It makes no sense.”
Alexa pushed her hair back from her face. “The Rinoxians agreed to it?”
The Ashi nodded. “Most of their command have been replaced. Anyway, they outnumber – and outgun – the other ships. Why would they be concerned?”
Allistan’s pen clicked. “They probably just put it down to Gal. Fed. protocols, or fear.”
Jar’Bek nodded. “They’ve had us stopping in random systems to scan. No doubt it’s to delay us, but perhaps also to lower the Rinoxian’s guard?”
Leaning back in her chair, the Awakened considered the options. “Maybe there's another fleet waiting to ambush us? Or following us?”
Allistan twirled his pen in his fingers. “No, no. All eyes are on the border since Aaron’s capture. It must be something else.”
Moving on to her next idea, Alexa asked, “Sabotage?”
The Ashi gave a chuckle. “That is Admiral Pelar’s conclusion. The Gal. Fed. officers have been on board the other ships, and the possibility exists that there are Sentinels working amongst them. They are all in command positions, and will all be leaving. It’s a logical conclusion.”
Allistan’s pen halted its spinning. “The Ashi ships, they can’t have been sabotaged, right?”
The lawyer nodded. “True, but, it wouldn’t matter. Their ships are old and have seen too much action. Those Gowe ships alone are more than they could handle.”
The Fae’Dan sighed and shook his head at the situation they were facing. “We should have brought more ships. The new ones.”
Alexa, staring at the ceiling, spoke softly. “No, we don’t need to show our hand just yet. But send word to Chae’Sol, make sure he has the coordinates.”
Jar’Bek nodded and made a note on his datapad. “What about the others?”
The Awakened closed her eyes. It was times like this she missed her human and his habit of taking charge. “Tell Embar to warn his contacts among the Rinoxians. The others… I have no idea, I just want to sleep.”
Allistan, a stickler for accuracy, replied, “I didn’t think Awakened slept?”
She sat up and gave a half-hearted smile. In an unusual moment of vulnerability, she replied, “I was told you can do anything in a dream. For those moments, we would all be together again.”
Allistan struggled to come up with a response to that, and the Ashi, having noticed this, stepped in to fill the gap in conversation. “We’ll find him. I can’t lose the most profitable client in the galaxy now, can I?”
Now past the moment of awkwardness, the Fae’Dan also answered. “I’m sure he’s fine. In fact, he’s probably already on his way back to us.”
Alexa gave Allistan a withering look. “You think he single-handedly defeated the Hive, stole a ship and managed to figure out how to fly it back here?”
The former Inspector paused to consider it. “No. It will most likely be something even more preposterous. Perhaps he married their Queen?”
The ridiculousness of the idea brought a chuckle to the Awakened. “Maybe. Hopefully nothing that drastic; he’d probably just turn their society upside down with some ridiculous scheme.”
Jar’Bek also smiled. “A little civil unrest, perhaps a few riots? No doubt with merchandise.”
Finally breaking into a broad grin, Alexa replied, “I think we all might be over-estimating him a little.”
 
 
Aaron stood in the trade area of Toivoa station with a contingent of Gardener Royal Guards behind him, Tsy’Lo by his side, and a very angry mob in front of him. Several well-dressed local leaders were dragged from the crowd to stand before him; Mycena, Tricinic, Procyon and a dozen other refugee races were crammed into the triple height area of the station.
One of the leaders staggered towards Aaron. “You! You caused this!”
Aaron, feigning as much innocence as possible, pointed to his chest. “Me?”
One of the Mycena he had met during his time on the station came forward. “We’ve all seen the videos! They kept us in the dark about what is going on out there! The Galactic Federation are coming! Our leaders lied to us!”
The accusatory leader, a Procyon with greying fur, pointed at Aaron. “Your... Your propaganda, has driven them mad! Your lies! They’re destroying the station!”
The human smiled and maintained his innocent expression. “My propaganda?” Several in the crowd held up datapads; Aaron’s smiling face was on every one. “Oh... that propaganda.”
Tsy’Lo tugged on his sleeve. “What did you do?!”
Aaron crouched down slightly. “Remember when I accidentally picked up the kids datapad and you returned it?”
“Yes…” The Tricinic flushed orange as realisation struck. “It wasn’t the child’s datapad!”
Aaron straightened up. “Yeah, thanks for helping bring down society.” He laughed as Tsy’Lo became a very opaque green hue. “Don’t worry, I’ve got an idea.”
The greying Procyon shook his fist at the human. “You better! They should throw you in a cage for the rest of your life for this. Hundreds of celes of peace, destroyed!”
Aaron looked down at the angry alien. “Your peace, not theirs.” He gestured back towards the Gardeners, and walked towards them without waiting for a reply. He raised his hands high, motioning for the unruly mob to settle down. “Alright, alright. Settle down, munchkins. So the wizard’s a liar? Welcome to reality. The Gardeners have been fighting and dying to keep you safe from the flying monkeys, while you all hide in your Emerald City and get on with your lives. That shit ends now. You’re crying out for change? Then welcome to the revolution, baby! We’re opening up the borders, we’re rejoining the rest of the galaxy! No more hiding!”
The crowd was already worked up, and cheering came easily despite the large lack of understanding. The human nodded — he was enjoying this far too much — and then gestured again for quiet. He spoke quietly at first, adding excitement to his voice as it built in power. “So prepare for a chance of a lifetime! Be prepared for sensational news!”
The Procyon official’s mouth opened and closed silently before he managed to shake his mind free of the initial shock of the human’s words. “No! Stop! What are you even saying?”
Aaron didn’t care about the official. He put the palm of his hand on their face, which easily dwarfed it in size, and gently pushed them slowly backwards. He then leapt up onto a crate; his showmanship on camera was nothing to his on-stage presence. “A shining new era is tiptoeing nearer, and where do you feature? Just listen to teacher! You’ve stagnated here for long enough. Lied to and kept in the dark, well, no more!”
The crowd was his, he knew it. The official knew it. Tsy’Lo knew it and was a nervous shade of blue. Aaron clambered from the crate to the roof of a stall, standing high above the crowd. The cheers followed every rambling sentence and, drunk on power, Aaron was loving it. “Spread the word to every planet, every station, every colony and every ship. Change is not coming, it’s here and it is now!”
The crowd roared again, and the desperate official turned to Tsy’Lo. “What in the nine moons is he talking about?”
“I’ll tell you what I’m talking about.” Aaron snapped. He stood looking out over the crowd. “I am the Ambassador of a world called Earth. I have taken ownership of a small star system that is being colonised as we speak. These colonies are a coalition of races, from within the Federation, as well as without. We rule ourselves, but have treaties and agreements with the Federation itself, as well as various individual races within it.”
Several questions were called out from the crowd, but one voice was louder than the others. “How does that help us?”
With a smile, the human walked back and forth across the roof of the stall as he spoke. “Good question my friend.” He pointed vaguely at where the voice had come from. “I do not have contact with my homeworld at this time. To ensure that all of whatever Earth has become would be included we put in place clauses for future territories, dominions, settlements etc, etc…” The crowd was quiet now, trying to follow the human’s explanation. Looking out at the blank faces Aaron realised he needed to get to the point. “Congratulations, you’re now a protectorate of Earth!”
He was met with utter silence.
Suddenly, there were several angry yells from the crowd, some claiming this was a joke while others were simply confused. The official was the one who dared clamber to the crate below Aaron in order to yell up to him. “Are you insane?”
Aaron’s smile made Tsy’Lo shudder, as it was the same one he had given as he had explained his idea to the Gardener Queen. The human stepped forward to stand at the front of the stall roof. “I declared war on the Gardeners. The war lasted seven Earth minutes, and was quickly resolved when the Queen surrendered to me in person.”
Silence fell once again, and Aaron found himself half-yearning for the sound of crickets to emphasize the moment.
The crowd erupted once more, outrage at the ridiculous claims the strange alien was spewing forth. Tsy’Lo released a deafeningly loud harmonic whistle which was followed by another momentary quiet. They paled as the crowd's attention fell on them. “You need to listen, all of you. He is speaking the truth, sort of. He held the Queen and the Gardeners council hostage with a bomb.” Small grey particles filled the Tricinic at the memory of being used as a weapon. The crowd began to grow rowdy at this news, causing Tsy’Lo to let off another sonic blast. “It is all a human trick; once we are part of his alliance we fall under the treaties he already has in place.”
The crowd looked back up to the human. “Like I said, congratulations. You just walked in through the backdoor of a peace treaty with the Galactic Federation, and over a dozen separate treaties with other races.”
The crowd were now arguing amongst themselves. The official - who Aaron was now mentally calling Gobshite - once again challenged him. “At what cost, though? What do you get out of this?”
The smile of mischief once more graced the human’s lips and Tsy’Lo considered pulling him down from his stage. They had been on their way to the border when news of the riots on Toivoa reached them. Aaron’s presence had been demanded and he had happily accepted. The human looked almost as gleeful as that moment of acceptance when he spoke again. “Me? I get to go home. I get friends with big sticks. I get to trade openly with you, and believe me, I have a lot of crap to sell you.” He chuckled. “You get to be part of the galaxy again. You get to travel and trade. Our rules are simple and fair; everyone is equal under the law. You have exactly the same rights as everyone else who joined us. And the cost?” He paused for effect, making sure they were all paying attention. “You stand on your own two feet.” He glanced around, noting the sheer diversity of the crowd. “Or one foot... or four... Or whatever it is you’re balancing on.”
The crowd was a buzz of conversation, and Gobshite once again chimed in. “You think they’ll let us back without a fight? We can expose them! Those bastards tried to exterminate us!”
The crowd jeered along with the old Procyon. Aaron held up his hands. “Woah, woah. Only some of them. That’s the thing, there are a lot more members now. So here’s the plan: shut up. If you don’t say anything, they sure as shit aren’t going to out themselves, are they? While everyone is staring at the former Hive terror that they all feared, you guys just start working and trading, nice and quiet.”
A few murmurs of agreement came from the crowd. Gobshite, however, was more than a murmur. “You want us to forget our ancestors suffering?”
A little irritated, Aaron was more harsh than he intended. “You’ve wallowed in it long enough. Look at you, hiding for generations, keeping your communications to a minimum to avoid detection. Is this all some master plan as you build an army to seek revenge? Fuck no!” He saw the shame on their faces. “You’re happy to leave this status quo to future generations? You want to remember the suffering of your ancestors, fine, build a fucking statue. But don’t hold back your children to do it.”
The crowd were growing louder again as they discussed his words. “Look!” the human yelled. “I’m not saying you forget, or forgive. I’m saying you keep your mouths shut. We won’t announce your presence to the Federation. Instead, I want those of you looking to start something new to come join the new colonies. No big fanfares, just get on with it. In a place filled with different races, you’ll just be another stranger.”
He saw the crowd looking at each other, and knew was a lot to take in all at once. “We gather evidence, build trust. Get yourselves established, forge friendships and alliances, and become accepted as part of the new colonies. Let those in the know think their past crimes are forgotten. And when we are ready, we burn down their false history and anyone who tries to defend it!”
The crowd cheered once more, and Aaron smiled triumphantly down at Tsy'Lo as he leapt casually from the roof. As he landed, many hands patted his back and many questions were yelled, but it all ceased as one of the Gardeners stepped forward. It was Eridor, as there was no mistaking the red cape he wore. "We need to leave, the Federation have entered our space.”
Next
submitted by Sooperdude24 to HFY [link] [comments]

The Next Mass Effect and Mass Effect: Legendary Edition FAQ - Please read before posting. Posts regarding these topics will be removed.

The Next Mass Effect and Mass Effect: Legendary Edition FAQ - Please read before posting. Posts regarding these topics will be removed. 
Last Updated: February 2, 2021 11:56 PM ET
Just like we did with Andromeda, we are making a megathread and FAQ to contain common discussions and questions regarding the Legendary remaster and the next Mass Effect game. Sources and new information will be added as more details are released. All posts regarding the information in this post will be removed, so please use this thread to discuss those topics. This post will be linked in the sidebar FAQ section. Please also keep our rules in mind when posting as they are available in the sidebar.
This FAQ is spoiler-free on plot (not story) details, but if you do not wish to be spoiled on any details of the game, do not read this.
If you have ideas on other frequent questions that you feel should be added to this list or have corrections/additional info, feel free to post them in the comments.
Lastly, thanks to the idea from u/N7_anonymous_guy, I have created some subreddit-exclusive post awards for us in celebration! So far, they are all in the 500 coin tier and include the Biotic God Award, Paragon Award, Renegade Award, Paragade Award, and the N7 Award. Check them out! And please enjoy the new view of the banner :)

Mass Effect : Legendary Edition

https://preview.redd.it/a4coglayfi461.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7349d3fa2b3dcfbdfb50ee2bda454737228bf11b
Bioware Blog post and main announcement:
LINK
Important excerpts:
For many months now, our team at BioWare has been hard at work updating the textures, shaders, models, effects, and technical features of three enormous games. Our goal was not to remake or reimagine the original games, but to modernize the experience so that fans and new players can experience the original work in its best possible form.
...
Mass Effect Legendary Edition will include single-player base content and DLC from Mass Effect, Mass Effect 2, and Mass Effect 3, plus promo weapons, armors, and packs – all remastered and optimized for 4k Ultra HD. It will be available in Spring 2021 for Xbox One, PlayStation 4, and PC, with forward compatibility and targeted enhancements on Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5.
When will the Legendary Edition be released?
As of February, the release date has been announced as May 14, 2021.
What platforms will the Legendary Edition be available on?
Xbox One, PlayStation 4, Windows PCs, Xbox Series X, and PlayStation 5.
Is there a trailer for the Legendary Edition?
Yes, there is a teaser trailer HERE and a 4K reveal trailer HERE.
What aspects will be remastered/what will be changed or added?
This is what we know so far:
  • All three games and textures will be remastered and optimized for 4K Ultra HD.
  • Bug fixes
  • ME3's default appearance FemShep will now be available in ME1 and ME2 and has been slightly improved.
  • Improved and updated ME1 combat
  • More unified controls across all three games including with hacking/minigames
  • Universal character creator across all three games with new skin tones and hairstyles
  • ME3 will now include extended cut and galactic readiness will not require multiplayer.
  • Genesis and all DLC (except ME1's Pinnacle Station) now included. Multiplayer will also not be included.
  • Some animations and camera angles will be fixed. (MOD NOTE: This is like the Andromeda incest debacle all over again. Any and all posts about the changes to Miranda's cut scenes will be removed. There have been dozens of these and all of them violate at least Rule 3 and Rule 8. Multiple rule violations will result in a ban. They're not censoring Miranda's bum. They're literally just changing a few camera angles to be less awkward. Remember that scene with Femshep's dress?)

The Next Mass Effect

Has the next Mass Effect game been announced?
Yes, in the above N7 day blog post from Bioware, they announced that they are working on the next ME and released this teaser image:
Mud Skipper
Fans have speculated that the figures seen are a human, Angara, Drell, and Salarian, but none of these details have been officially confirmed. The image above has been titled "Mud Skipper."
Further, The Bioware Blog also made a post after the 2020 Game Awards trailer release HERE.
When will it be released and which platforms will it be on?
At this time we do not know what platforms the game will be on as we have no idea when it will be released. The Next Mass Effect is still a long way away and may even be released with a whole new generation of consoles.
Is there any other concept art?
Yes, some concept art for the next Mass Effect was released in the new art book Bioware: Stories and Secrets from 25 Years of Game Development. See photos HERE and upscaled images from Casey Hudson himself HERE.
Is there a trailer?
Yes; watch it HERE.
During the Game Awards on December 10, 2020, a new teaser trailer was released featuring Liara at the end and some unknown figures standing with the "Mud Skipper" ship. Other familiar imagery include someone (presumably Liara) climbing a Reaper carcass, a destroyed Mass Relay, and a piece of an N7 Breather Helmet in Liara's hands.
Mike Gamble stated in a TWEET that he had been waiting "1,360" days for this, which is the exact number of days since Andromeda's release on March 21, 2017 up to the 2020 Game Awards. He also said "This trailer has much to unpack. Look. And listen closely :)" seemingly referring to the voices talking at the beginning of the trailer. Some of the voices and sounds include "first contact protocol," "Ark 6 is away," a reaper blast, and "we've lost contact." Ark 6 is the Quarian Ark from Andromeda.
Is The Next Mass Effect a sequel to the original trilogy or Andromeda?
We don't know yet. Any confirmed details will be in this post. I will use this question to post some Tweets from people involved with the project that seem to imply that it is both.
https://twitter.com/GambleMike/status/1337235463266942976:
Replying to @Joanna_Berry: Opening shot also has very pointed imagery of two galaxies... my mind is racing... are we going to get.. a single sequel to both games?!
Michael Gamble @GambleMike: intentional.
Michael Gamble @GambleMike: who knows. maybe not? but we show both for a reason :)
https://twitter.com/taylorson/status/1337229803636682753:
Tom Taylorson @taylorson: Look at all the games I’m not involved with! [winky face emojis]
https://twitter.com/GambleMike/status/1337259652220764163:
Replying to @reich_the: I can't say I'm not excited, but Bioware just abandoned Andromeda. This is not good, some of us connected with Ryder and crew. Bioware just slapped us, and gave us candy.
Michael Gamble @GambleMike: I think you should wait and see :)
https://twitter.com/GambleMike/status/1337242303069474816:
Michael Gamble @GambleMike Replying to @Zoober: But who is in the background, nathan? You know. But the world doesnt. But can they figure it out? Who knows!
https://twitter.com/GambleMike/status/1337229313733640193:
Replying to @JustACyberLad: I heard "Godspeed" and all can I think of is that moment of taking off in the Tempest for the first time.
Michael Gamble @GambleMike: intentional.
Is there a title for the next game?
Not yet. At this time it is just being called The Next Mass Effect.
Who is composing the sound track and will any of the OT or Andromeda music be back?
We don't know yet, but Benjamin Wallfisch composed the music for the Game Awards teaser trailer.
Who is working on this game?
The N7 Day blog post stated that a "veteran team" is working on the game. Although Casey Hudson recently left Bioware, Mike Gamble Tweeted on 12/11/20 that the following veterans are working on the game. He also stated that "As time goes on, you'll get to know more of us."
  • Derek Watts, original art director for Mass Effect
  • Brenon Holmes, designer for three ME games (ME2, ME3, and MEA)
  • Parrish Ley, cinematic director for the Original Trilogy
  • Dusty Everman, worked on bringing the original Normandy to life

Other Releases

submitted by raiskream to masseffect [link] [comments]

A Look at the FDA Approval Process and How it Affects Your Investments

I’ve been wanting to do a post like this for a long time now. Now that healthcare has basically been the hottest thing for the last year (and somehow still getting even hotter), I thought it would be a good time. Many people try to buy into pharmaceutical companies around FDA approval targets without truly understanding what they’re getting into. Full disclosure, I am a doctor, but I will try to write this in layman’s terms as much as possible. If I get anything wrong, I’ll be sure to edit the post. To the best of my knowledge, everything I am about to say is researched (and therefore correct).
I’m going to go through the entire FDA approval process as a timeline, and then at the end, talk about other things to consider when investing in pharmaceuticals (i.e., more nuanced stuff that requires/applies healthcare understanding). One caveat here is people use “phases” in multiple ways. The way I will use it is the way I see most often being used in press releases and DD on pennystocks.
Preclinical: to begin, you must submit a proposal that basically states why you think a biologic compound will work. Without getting too technical, the preclinical is basically where you demonstrate a proof of concept.
Here is a very generic example: Let’s say that HIV binds to GME receptor on cells. I have been doing petri dish experiments on a compound I created that prevents anything from binding to GME (this is in vitro if you ever see that term tossed around). I submit this evidence to the FDA and say that I think my compound will work in theory. TONS of things work in vitro and never progress beyond that. At this point, the FDA says, “okay we think your compound might work too, you can start human trials.”
Investor takeaway: the results of this phase mean absolutely nothing. If a drug failed in this phase, that would truly mean the company is incompetent in both their ability to assess the science, and in their ability to provide meaningful news to generate investor buzz.
Phase 1: Anything that passes preclinical is ready for human trials. We are talking very small trials, like less than 100 people. For smaller companies, this is their chance to get some hype about their pharmaceutical. For anyone who understands the process, this is truly meaningless. Again, working in vitro does not (and likely will not) translate to working in humans. This phase typically lasts several months and is primarily designed to ensure that the drug is safe.
Here is a real life example, one that has already garnered a lot of attention: Atossa Therapeutics (ATOS) and their new breast cancer drug. Here is where medical knowledge (or solid research) can really help you. Their new breast cancer drug is called endoxifen. There are already multiple analogues (drugs that work in exactly the same way with minor differences in their chemical structures) on the market. Given the number of safe analogues on the market, it is likely (but not certain) this drug will be safe for human use. It is important to note here that phase 1 trials may be done on healthy participants without any disease, solely to test for safety. Accordingly, passage through phase 1 still may not demonstrate proof of concept on humans who have a particular disease.
Let’s say that ATOS had announced its intention to start testing breast cancer treatment and initiate phase 1 trials. Like I said, the likelihood of success is pretty high given the success of previous analogues. On the other hand the downside is huge. Companies can essentially go bankrupt at this stage if their “sure thing” drug or medical device fails. Always be sure to look at risk vs reward. A drug that enters phase 1 only has around a 14% likelihood of making it all the way to FDA approval. Certain categories of drugs like those that treat cancer have even lower success rates (3.4%). While FDA drug approval does appear to be increasing more than 80% of drugs that enter this stage will never see market.
Investor takeaway: the road from here is super long and passing this phase really can’t tell you anything about its success in further stages. Many drugs are analogues and breeze through this phase, it is important not to get too hyped on them for that reason.
Phase 2: Unlike phase 1 that focuses on drug safety, phase 2 tests the efficacy of the drug you are studying. This phase will typically have less than 1,000 participants, but they will all have the disease of interest. In this phase, we are looking to ensure that the drug works (provides statistically significant improvement) and is relatively safe as far as side effects. To limit research bias, sometimes we will divide the participants and give some the drug and keep some as the control group (they may get a placebo or no drug at all).
This is a pretty straightforward stage and lasts anywhere from months to years. It really depends on the drug being studied. I would never really expect a mainstream drug to get through this stage in under 6 months. The only conditions in which that would be logically feasible are either:
  1. COVID (solely because of the politicization of the process) or
  2. drugs treating conditions with extremely high mortality (because people won’t survive more than 6 months).
Lots of companies like to start releasing press releases close to FDA review of phase 2 results. Always be wary of those results. If my breast cancer drug was successful in 600 people and failed in 300, then while the numbers look good, the data may not be there. There is a lot that goes into statistical analysis and it isn’t quite as simple as more people did well than did poorly.
It’s also important to realize that side effect profile is really important. Let’s say the aforementioned breast cancer agent ends up prolonging life in 80% of the study participants that received the drug. However, there’s also this nasty little side effect of developing a pulmonary embolism in 15-20% of people. That’s not insignificant and it is up to the FDA to decide whether or not the risk outweighs the benefit. Sometimes the FDA will order companies to redo this phase if the data are inconclusive. With cancer agents, this is common because the drugs are so toxic to so many parts of the body, so it really is about risk/benefit analysis.
The important thing to look at in this phase when comparing the results of the treatment group to the control group is what is called the p-value. For those of you who took stats, you should know what this is. For those that didn’t, just know that in healthcare, results with a p-value >0.05 are considered insignificant. It’s also important to note that clinical and statistical significance are also key things to remember. Sometimes the benefit of the drug is so minimal that the side effect profile outweighs the benefits and the FDA will prevent the drug from moving forward. It’s also important to remember that if this is a drug entering a market where there are competitors, the FDA will look and see if this drug provides enough benefit over existing drugs before making a decision.
One more nuance that pharmaceutical companies love to do is change the primary target. In the statistics world, that’s a pretty big no-no. If my initial proposal was that the breast cancer agent would prolong the life of my patients, and then suddenly I start talking about how it actually increases their pain-free time, this is a huge red flag. You can deduce that they likely didn’t meet their primary target and pivoted to something else they could meet. In any study you can find specific characteristic that makes you look good.
Investor takeaway: this is the first phase that companies can really release “meaningful” information. Because of this, many companies try to raise funds at this time to capitalize on the hype, be wary of the words used in their press releases and marketing.
Phase 3: Phase 3 is basically a repeat of phase 2, but bigger. It’s used to determine real efficacy of a drug. In raw numbers, we are looking at about 300-3,000 participants and up to 4 years of data. Phase 3 looks at the exact same things as phase 2: efficacy and side effects observed among a treated group (and sometimes compared to a control group).
Statistical significance, that is, the thing that tells you whether the drug worked, is based heavily upon power. If you want to increase power, you can increase the sample size. In phase 3, the FDA is giving the drug a chance to sink or swim. They are once again looking to make sure you don’t discover any new, obscure side effects and to ensure that the phase 2 results were not a statistical anomaly/the drug really does work.
Beyond sample size, the biggest difference between phases 2 and 3 is that we are observing a longer period of time for adverse events. Note the maximum time differences: up to 2 years for phase 2, and up to 4 years for phase 3. There are side effects that don’t manifest within the first 2 years. A very simple example is, actually cancer agents that cause cardiac fibrosis or pulmonary fibrosis after years of use. These are things that may have been masked in the phase 2 study because the duration.
The other thing is that we may discover rarer, more deadly side effects in this phase. Let’s say in phase 2, we found that 2 of our 1,000 participants developed brain cancer. The phase 2 data may show that this was statistically insignificant and cannot be attributed to the drug (remember, sample size is very important). Maybe the phase 3 study will suddenly show that another 8 people developed brain cancer and it was due to the drug.
Investor takeaway: many drugs fail here, and not because they don’t work. They fail because they aren’t significantly better than what is available or the benefit is not enough to outweigh the risks. FDA approval isn’t simply contingent upon a drug working, there are many, many factors that come into play.
Phase 4: this is the big phase, thousands of participants, possibly multiple hospitals around the country/world. This phase further increases the power of the data and shows that the drug really, really does work and is actually safe. Getting to phase 4 is actually a pretty big deal.
At this point, the company will apply for FDA approval including all of the information they have gathered at this point. In this stage, we are considering not only efficacy and safety, but also simplicity of use, and drug abuse potential. Drug abuse potential is a pretty hot topic right now because, well, opioid epidemic. Many opioids in the last few years have not received FDA approval solely because they are too easily abused. This entire application process takes 6-10 months for the FDA to review all the evidence and decide what happens.
It is not uncommon for the FDA to request more data before approving a drug or further review. Many times they will request the company conduct a new study of x to determine y. This is normal but can seriously impede the approval timeline of a drug. This is where you have to remember opportunity cost. After approval it goes to market, yay!
Investor takeaway: you may think once the drug receives FDA approval that you are out of the woods in terms of your investment. You would be wrong.
Making it to market: When a drug finally hits market, there are two major things for investors to consider. Let’s start with the scary one, removal from the market. Remember how many times I’ve mentioned power, and sample size above? That becomes super relevant here. Depending on the drug, when it finally reaches market we may have many-fold more “participants” with which we can study the side effects of the drug.
Sometimes drugs are pulled from the market because certain side effects emerge that flew under the radar during clinical trial phases. Sometimes the FDA sticks a black box warning on the drug (which really makes doctors stop prescribing it unless they have to). In either care, share prices tend to drop. They will plummet, though, if the FDA removes it from market.
Market earnings: The last “opportunity” for investors in the approval process is the sales data after the first quarter of marketing. This is where the company shows their revenue from the sale of the drug. If you have medical knowledge, you can really thrive here. If you don’t, you are likely to get screwed because you probably won’t understand the nuances in what drives physicians to prescribe drugs and avoid others.
Just because a drug works super well doesn’t mean it will ever be used. Examples of that are ACRX’s new sufentanil agents. Those will likely see poor sales data because from a clinical perspective, even though they are approved, and work, they will almost never be used. You would not know that without understanding the specifics of post-operative pain management.
And finally, a disclaimer. Anything I said here, I can be totally wrong. Sufentanil could become the most popular agent on the market for reasons I don’t understand or couldn’t fathom. Maybe ACRX will have an insanely good marketing team. I am simply talking about making the best decision based on the available knowledge. Stock prices are fickle beasts and they don’t always respond the way we expect.
A message to those who tend to hold on to their bags to gamble on FDA approval:
Yes, this really is gambling. Look at the statistics of how often drugs make it past each stage. You lost 40% on ATOS, you know what would be worse? Somehow their drug fails and now you have lost 80%. You see a drug running before FDA decision deadline, don’t buy it. No one knows how the FDA is going to respond and you are just as likely to lose your money than you are to make it.
Honestly, you are more likely to lose money because there are three outcomes, and two cause you to lose money, one of which will potentially bankrupt your position. The FDA could either approve the drug (yay!), outright reject the drug (oof), or ask for more information. That last one is kind of misleading because it may not mean the drug has failed, but it definitely will destroy the hype built up and tank the share price. The extra information requested could take forever to get and you would, once again, have to consider opportunity cost.
If there is anything else you think I should have discussed, just let me know and I will try to add it.
If this was helpful, please let me know. If so, I can start posting regular medical-based DD on the trending healthcare tickers from this sub!
submitted by Aflycted to pennystocks [link] [comments]

GME and future of WSB ?

Fellow retards,
I have a couple points I'd like to discuss. I owned GME and sold it most of them when Robinhood screwed us for good. I made TENDIES which is what mattered and why I have been in the sub. I'm not a paid hedge fund bot or shill but I AGREE that hedge funds would love the current state of this sub in my smooth opinion.
I've been following the sub around a year. I was a retard and brained washed by boomer financial advices which didn't make me a lot of TENDIES. I got hooked in during March/April when the stock market crashed and autists made fortunes with puts on SPY and calls on Tesla. I was amazed by beautiful retardness.
WSB did something truly amazing. GME was the trade of this quarter century. A dude in basement with DDs and bunch of retards did something crazy. Thousands of retards made thousands of dollars. It has changed lifes for good for many people.
However, the sub has been fallen victim to its success. Let me be clear, the GME was to make Tendies. Taking out a hedge fund was a bonus not the purpose because we know the game is rigged. It's what it is. Unless you have a trillion dollar, you are not likely to change wall street for retail traders and retards. When GME took off and went viral, truly mentally challenged people of reddit homepage jumped on it and it has been transformed into a "movement". TVs, newspapers show this as little guys take on wall street and Elon Musk and Mark Cuban supported this(positions or ban?talk is cheap) I read bunch of comments and got heartbroken that people got in to make money and destroy hedge funds. Now, GME is the only thing. We have lost Tesla gang,Palantir gang,Palenton gang,theta gang who had provided real DD and were the people who came up with GME along with many other trades. Those people made WSB a place where retards gamble but with some sort of fundamental that can increase you change from 0 to 4.2069% Now we cannot hear them due to noise.
Now, the sub is filled with people who just yell "HOLD!!!!!" "BUY MORE" "WHO HOLDS????" "GME WILL GO TO MOON". I hope it does and people who got fucked recover. BUT THIS REDUCES THE SUB INTO A SINGLE TRADE where previously there were chances you can actually hear new retarded things that could make you money. Guess who benefits from this current state? GME Diamond Hands with $1000? or Wall St. who is playing carrot on a stick.
A hedge fund made $700M on GME. Citadel who has shady relationships with Robinhood made tons of money as market maker because of insane increase of volume. A lot of hedge funds shorted at $300s and made millions. And we are bombarded with truly stupid posts of "WHO HOLDS GME????$5000 IS NOT A MEME" I'd love hearing DDs like DFVs and explain the game plan but these people are actually retards. They just yell some slogans and getting emotional. Sharing the old finra report won't help US.
I wholeheartedly hope that GME holders are right, it goes to $5000 and makes millions. I'd be happy for them but if we narrow to one trade (or BANG), we actually give up millions of TENDIES on other trades. We don't get new info. We don't get new DDs. Please stop spamming and provide actual DD so it can actually bring people back on GME if you are right. This would help you too.
We need to find our next GMEs. That's how you make TENDIES. We need retards who got stuff right like messiah DFV so we can win. Everytime we make a good trade, you actually fight off the rigged system.
tl;dr: GME narrows down us to a single trade. We need to restore our DNA and get DDs,reduce noise and hear new things that can make us TENDIES. Otherwise GME can be cancerous to this sub which holds you back to make TENDIES
Thank you for reading and now fuck off
submitted by classunittest to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

A Look at the FDA Approval Process and How it Affects Your Investments

I’ve been wanting to do a post like this for a long time now. Now that healthcare has basically been the hottest thing for the last year (and somehow still getting even hotter), I thought it would be a good time. Many people try to buy into pharmaceutical companies around FDA approval targets without truly understanding what they’re getting into. Full disclosure, I am a doctor, but I will try to write this in layman’s terms as much as possible. If I get anything wrong, I’ll be sure to edit the post. To the best of my knowledge, everything I am about to say is researched (and therefore correct).
I’m going to go through the entire FDA approval process as a timeline, and then at the end, talk about other things to consider when investing in pharmaceuticals (i.e., more nuanced stuff that requires/applies healthcare understanding). One caveat here is people use “phases” in multiple ways. The way I will use it is the way I see most often being used in press releases and DD on reddit.
Preclinical: to begin, you must submit a proposal that basically states why you think a biologic compound will work. Without getting too technical, the preclinical is basically where you demonstrate a proof of concept.
Here is a very generic example: Let’s say that HIV binds to GME receptor on cells. I have been doing petri dish experiments on a compound I created that prevents anything from binding to GME (this is in vitro if you ever see that term tossed around). I submit this evidence to the FDA and say that I think my compound will work in theory. TONS of things work in vitro and never progress beyond that. At this point, the FDA says, “okay we think your compound might work too, you can start human trials.”
Investor takeaway: the results of this phase mean absolutely nothing. If a drug failed in this phase, that would truly mean the company is incompetent in both their ability to assess the science, and in their ability to provide meaningful news to generate investor buzz.
Phase 1: Anything that passes preclinical is ready for human trials. We are talking very small trials, like less than 100 people. For smaller companies, this is their chance to get some hype about their pharmaceutical. For anyone who understands the process, this is truly meaningless. Again, working in vitro does not (and likely will not) translate to working in humans. This phase typically lasts several months and is primarily designed to ensure that the drug is safe.
Here is a real life example, one that has already garnered a lot of attention: Atossa Therapeutics (ATOS) and their new breast cancer drug. Here is where medical knowledge (or solid research) can really help you. Their new breast cancer drug is called endoxifen. There are already multiple analogues (drugs that work in exactly the same way with minor differences in their chemical structures) on the market. Given the number of safe analogues on the market, it is likely (but not certain) this drug will be safe for human use. It is important to note here that phase 1 trials may be done on healthy participants without any disease, solely to test for safety. Accordingly, passage through phase 1 still may not demonstrate proof of concept on humans who have a particular disease.
Let’s say that ATOS had announced its intention to start testing breast cancer treatment and initiate phase 1 trials. Like I said, the likelihood of success is pretty high given the success of previous analogues. On the other hand the downside is huge. Companies can essentially go bankrupt at this stage if their “sure thing” drug or medical device fails. Always be sure to look at risk vs reward. A drug that enters phase 1 only has around a 14% likelihood of making it all the way to FDA approval. Certain categories of drugs like those that treat cancer have even lower success rates (3.4%). While FDA drug approval does appear to be increasing more than 80% of drugs that enter this stage will never see market.
Investor takeaway: the road from here is super long and passing this phase really can’t tell you anything about its success in further stages. Many drugs are analogues and breeze through this phase, it is important not to get too hyped on them for that reason.
Phase 2: Unlike phase 1 that focuses on drug safety, phase 2 tests the efficacy of the drug you are studying. This phase will typically have less than 1,000 participants, but they will all have the disease of interest. In this phase, we are looking to ensure that the drug works (provides statistically significant improvement) and is relatively safe as far as side effects. To limit research bias, sometimes we will divide the participants and give some the drug and keep some as the control group (they may get a placebo or no drug at all).
This is a pretty straightforward stage and lasts anywhere from months to years. It really depends on the drug being studied. I would never really expect a mainstream drug to get through this stage in under 6 months. The only conditions in which that would be logically feasible are either:
  1. COVID (solely because of the politicization of the process) or
  2. drugs treating conditions with extremely high mortality (because people won’t survive more than 6 months).
Lots of companies like to start releasing press releases close to FDA review of phase 2 results. Always be wary of those results. If my breast cancer drug was successful in 600 people and failed in 300, then while the numbers look good, the data may not be there. There is a lot that goes into statistical analysis and it isn’t quite as simple as more people did well than did poorly.
It’s also important to realize that side effect profile is really important. Let’s say the aforementioned breast cancer agent ends up prolonging life in 80% of the study participants that received the drug. However, there’s also this nasty little side effect of developing a pulmonary embolism in 15-20% of people. That’s not insignificant and it is up to the FDA to decide whether or not the risk outweighs the benefit. Sometimes the FDA will order companies to redo this phase if the data are inconclusive. With cancer agents, this is common because the drugs are so toxic to so many parts of the body, so it really is about risk/benefit analysis.
The important thing to look at in this phase when comparing the results of the treatment group to the control group is what is called the p-value. For those of you who took stats, you should know what this is. For those that didn’t, just know that in healthcare, results with a p-value >0.05 are considered insignificant. It’s also important to note that clinical and statistical significance are also key things to remember. Sometimes the benefit of the drug is so minimal that the side effect profile outweighs the benefits and the FDA will prevent the drug from moving forward. It’s also important to remember that if this is a drug entering a market where there are competitors, the FDA will look and see if this drug provides enough benefit over existing drugs before making a decision.
One more nuance that pharmaceutical companies love to do is change the primary target. In the statistics world, that’s a pretty big no-no. If my initial proposal was that the breast cancer agent would prolong the life of my patients, and then suddenly I start talking about how it actually increases their pain-free time, this is a huge red flag. You can deduce that they likely didn’t meet their primary target and pivoted to something else they could meet. In any study you can find specific characteristic that makes you look good.
Investor takeaway: this is the first phase that companies can really release “meaningful” information. Because of this, many companies try to raise funds at this time to capitalize on the hype, be wary of the words used in their press releases and marketing.
Phase 3: Phase 3 is basically a repeat of phase 2, but bigger. It’s used to determine real efficacy of a drug. In raw numbers, we are looking at about 300-3,000 participants and up to 4 years of data. Phase 3 looks at the exact same things as phase 2: efficacy and side effects observed among a treated group (and sometimes compared to a control group).
Statistical significance, that is, the thing that tells you whether the drug worked, is based heavily upon power. If you want to increase power, you can increase the sample size. In phase 3, the FDA is giving the drug a chance to sink or swim. They are once again looking to make sure you don’t discover any new, obscure side effects and to ensure that the phase 2 results were not a statistical anomaly/the drug really does work.
Beyond sample size, the biggest difference between phases 2 and 3 is that we are observing a longer period of time for adverse events. Note the maximum time differences: up to 2 years for phase 2, and up to 4 years for phase 3. There are side effects that don’t manifest within the first 2 years. A very simple example is, actually cancer agents that cause cardiac fibrosis or pulmonary fibrosis after years of use. These are things that may have been masked in the phase 2 study because the duration.
The other thing is that we may discover rarer, more deadly side effects in this phase. Let’s say in phase 2, we found that 2 of our 1,000 participants developed brain cancer. The phase 2 data may show that this was statistically insignificant and cannot be attributed to the drug (remember, sample size is very important). Maybe the phase 3 study will suddenly show that another 8 people developed brain cancer and it was due to the drug.
Investor takeaway: many drugs fail here, and not because they don’t work. They fail because they aren’t significantly better than what is available or the benefit is not enough to outweigh the risks. FDA approval isn’t simply contingent upon a drug working, there are many, many factors that come into play.
Phase 4: this is the big phase, thousands of participants, possibly multiple hospitals around the country/world. This phase further increases the power of the data and shows that the drug really, really does work and is actually safe. Getting to phase 4 is actually a pretty big deal.
At this point, the company will apply for FDA approval including all of the information they have gathered at this point. In this stage, we are considering not only efficacy and safety, but also simplicity of use, and drug abuse potential. Drug abuse potential is a pretty hot topic right now because, well, opioid epidemic. Many opioids in the last few years have not received FDA approval solely because they are too easily abused. This entire application process takes 6-10 months for the FDA to review all the evidence and decide what happens.
It is not uncommon for the FDA to request more data before approving a drug or further review. Many times they will request the company conduct a new study of x to determine y. This is normal but can seriously impede the approval timeline of a drug. This is where you have to remember opportunity cost. After approval it goes to market, yay!
Investor takeaway: you may think once the drug receives FDA approval that you are out of the woods in terms of your investment. You would be wrong.
Making it to market: When a drug finally hits market, there are two major things for investors to consider. Let’s start with the scary one, removal from the market. Remember how many times I’ve mentioned power, and sample size above? That becomes super relevant here. Depending on the drug, when it finally reaches market we may have many-fold more “participants” with which we can study the side effects of the drug.
Sometimes drugs are pulled from the market because certain side effects emerge that flew under the radar during clinical trial phases. Sometimes the FDA sticks a black box warning on the drug (which really makes doctors stop prescribing it unless they have to). In either care, share prices tend to drop. They will plummet, though, if the FDA removes it from market.
Market earnings: The last “opportunity” for investors in the approval process is the sales data after the first quarter of marketing. This is where the company shows their revenue from the sale of the drug. If you have medical knowledge, you can really thrive here. If you don’t, you are likely to get screwed because you probably won’t understand the nuances in what drives physicians to prescribe drugs and avoid others.
Just because a drug works super well doesn’t mean it will ever be used. Examples of that are ACRX’s new sufentanil agents. Those will likely see poor sales data because from a clinical perspective, even though they are approved, and work, they will almost never be used. You would not know that without understanding the specifics of post-operative pain management.
And finally, a disclaimer. Anything I said here, I can be totally wrong. Sufentanil could become the most popular agent on the market for reasons I don’t understand or couldn’t fathom. Maybe ACRX will have an insanely good marketing team. I am simply talking about making the best decision based on the available knowledge. Stock prices are fickle beasts and they don’t always respond the way we expect.
A message to those who tend to hold on to their bags to gamble on FDA approval:
Yes, this really is gambling. Look at the statistics of how often drugs make it past each stage. You lost 40% on ATOS, you know what would be worse? Somehow their drug fails and now you have lost 80%. You see a drug running before FDA decision deadline, don’t buy it. No one knows how the FDA is going to respond and you are just as likely to lose your money than you are to make it.
Honestly, you are more likely to lose money because there are three outcomes, and two cause you to lose money, one of which will potentially bankrupt your position. The FDA could either approve the drug (yay!), outright reject the drug (oof), or ask for more information. That last one is kind of misleading because it may not mean the drug has failed, but it definitely will destroy the hype built up and tank the share price. The extra information requested could take forever to get and you would, once again, have to consider opportunity cost.
If there is anything else you think I should have discussed, just let me know and I will try to add it.
submitted by Aflycted to investing [link] [comments]

The status-quo bias that keeps people loyal to capitalism.

A common status-quo bias is judging anything new by much higher standards than the status-quo itself is ever held to. This is practically a hallmark of trying to discuss things with conservatives: their dismissal of anything they're not used to for being imperfect, despite what they're used to not being perfect either.
In posting about alternate ways to plan production, inevitably do I get some replies insisting any method but our current one is surely implausible because they can't imagine precisely how it might address some contrived problem they just thought of. The shortcomings of capitalism are meanwhile swept under the rug. In general, they act like capitalism is some gold standard of efficiency, and so any conceivable problem of an alternate is a net loss.
A defense enjoyed for its veneer of academic prestige is the idea that nothing but the capitalist price system could possibly create enough information to plan things by. There's no particular reason to believe this – it's just something they say – but let's take a step back and acknowledge what may well be an even more important point, which is that's not a high bar. We just have to do at least the job capitalism is already doing?
Letting rich people plan the economy is already terribly inefficient and fails all the time. It's not a gold standard just because it's the thing we're currently stuck with (and I do mean stuck).
To consider:
  1. The information gleaned from prices is very limited in scope to begin with, concerned only with demand that can be fulfilled in existing market conditions in a way that's profitable for the rich. The homeless, or those people who need healthcare they can't afford, are effectively invisible. Forget about any sort of public work or utility. The externalities of your actions can likewise be dismissed. (This alone is sufficient reason to demand a different system, since the externalities capitalists disregard are what's destroying us. The environment is only the most obvious form of this; it's a multifaceted problem that echoes throughout society. A conservative may appreciate the detrimental affect it has on culture: capitalists have no respect for you, your people, or your traditions; they just want you to consoome. The 'externalities' understanding is here applicable.)
  2. The information implicitly created by our purchases isn't as useful as you've been led to think. Most consumption is pretty far from 'rational,' and what choices we make (within the limited range of choices capitalists choose to present us with) is more predictable than either planners or consumers seem comfortable to admit. We don't stop and do research before every purchase we make; shopping is (and is designed to be) compulsive; we react well to emotional manipulation, branding, flashy packaging, bullshit 'deals,' and our own addictions. This is what I talked about in my previous thread, 'Let's plan production': giving people actual control over their economy would be far more accurate and meaningful than just observing how they act inside a system that's designed to manipulate them in certain ways to begin with.
  3. It's not like capitalists aren't constantly mismanaging resources, even with all this information they supposedly have. Economic crises are just a fact of life in capitalist society, and the price system is constantly tainted by things unrelated to any actual demand. The average person has to endure a shoddy housing market because of the extent to which housing prices have come to reflect rich people's penchant for investment, gambling, and tax evasion more so than they are a measure of how many people actually need housing. And the next time the system collapses on itself, it'll again be the poor who suffer while the rich make off like bandits. (And of course, workers losing their jobs and homes and savings is tolerated where it's acknowledge at all, because the operational definition for 'efficiency' for conservatives is 'whatever makes rich people the most money.')
submitted by Hheaut to CapitalismVSocialism [link] [comments]

Okay, let's just talk Mental Health for a second and Financial / Mindset Recovery

I'm relaying what I've said in an earlier thread in the comments because I feel like everybody needs to seriously hear this. I want to just take a moment to talk about the negativity being thrown around and the potential mental health crisis that could unfold for many people here.
I know the general sentiment is to shit on all the people with negativity about "You're a fucking idiot, you should've sold when you had the chance", etc but I understand why some of them feel that way, despite the fact that some may be shills / bots. But I want to remind the people (who are not bots / shills) that you could be exasperating some serious inner self-turmoil for many people based on these words causing their mental health to be in ruins.
In these times, we have to help these people up and give them good advice without sounding like jackasses. Have some damn humility and read the whole thread before downvoting.

My Perspective about Holding - Hindsight 20/20

Maybe naive of me to say but I'd rather die knowing I follow through with what I say rather than folding to the guys laughing down at us. Go out with some damn dignity if you're going to go out at all. Whether the squeeze happens or not, I'd rather just hold and hope GME does better as a company in the future. If not, then it was money I was already prepared to lose. It's really that simple. BUT ONLY... if you put in the money that you could afford.
The point is, it wasn't completely stupid to get involved because truly, hindsight is 20/20 for situations like this. This was an unprecedented event in the likes the world has literally never seen. How could you possibly have predicted it to the tee? You can't pretend like you're a smartass that saw all this coming. You can only extrapolate the data as it comes and watch as the event unfolds.
I'd say you can call it more of a gamble than an investment, but it doesn't take a genius to understand that when getting in. The fact is, expectations should have been set better for all the new people that joined.
Like I said earlier, the only people to worry about are the ones who truly have lost a majority of their wealth from this. I'm all about diamond hands but realistically if I invested at the starting price before it spiked to $400, I probably would've sold enough to cover my initial investment and kept the rest to be a part of the movement.

Some Lives Have Been Destroyed... Let's not deny it

I know there may still be potential, heck I'm still diamond hands - but there are some people here that really went all out. Like I don't know if you've been paying attention, but I've seen it on blogs, on this subreddit, on social media. Some people really have gone ALL OUT or have thrown a majority of their wealth on this.
If this is the case, I'd start talking to a financial advisor immediately about what your next steps are. My deepest sympathies go out to the guys and gals who are feeling breathless and suffocated in these times, that in it of itself has been giving me more anxiety than anything else. Just looking at all the people who put in way more than they could chew... it honestly destroys me. I have anxiety myself and I can't imagine what you people are going through right now.
I can see people killing themselves over the decisions that have been made in the past 2 weeks. Especially with the pandemic at an all time high and already causing mental health ruin, this does not help.
For the people that feel destroyed - you are going to get through this. I know it fucking sucks but you will. Life can change at an instant at any second the same way it can go to shit. The same way you feel you're never going to find that person to fall in love with and the next second some gorgeous girl is going out with your ugly ass. In either case, little by little, you'll fix this and you'll have become stronger for it.
Upside and Lessons
On the flip side, I and I'm sure many have had and are having a lot fun being a part of this movement and still holding til the end. It's not over til the damn thing hits 0. Apes together strong and all that shit - but I hope this was a valuable lesson to many who had thrown everything in to not let emotions get in the way of making smart investment decisions.
This was a volatile market, and should have come in understanding that this was basically gambling money as much as it was an attempt at a short-term investment. Going forward, if you decide to stick around and invest in the stock market in general, it really can be an enjoyable experience to play with the numbers in a way that doesn't get your heart dropping every 2 seconds.
If any of you need to talk or are feeling low, the PMs are open, and I'm sure there are many dumb apes (apes have hearts right?) that can and will help you get through this.
Closing thoughts... It's not over so don't just give up yet - hold strong if you can afford to stay in the fight and put food on the table. We're in this together til the end!
Edit: For some reason, I see comments being deleted for no reason - not sure what that's about.
submitted by razebyte to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Ancient Strategy 40.5

First Last Next
The holodisplay of the arena was one of the best available. As opposed to the limited views of the players, the display showed the limited galactic map in the center and more focused perspectives of what teams were doing to each side. The map had faint outlines to show how far each side had expanded their races out, portions being replaced to display nearby battles. Smaller devices, able to be grasped by most attendants, could display numerics and statistics for the curious. What the designers could never have expected, however, was a match lasting more than some six or so hours. It was currently the later part of the second day.
The crowd did not fill out the stands as much as when the game had started, but was only diminished slightly. CivSim matches weren't attended by just any fans, it took time and, often, quite a lot of money to attend these matches in person. These were the most devoted fans to the sport. Most had slept somewhere they could get space in the stadium, emergency bedding supplies normally stored for disasters being issued. Many fans slept in their seats, refusing to leave for even a second of the historic match. Stims and energy boosters were being sold, even illegal narcotics making rounds for those who had connections. Those races that had always boasted higher sleep cycles were being pushed to their edges.
Abara found it fascinating. She, with the rest of the Terran delegation and their guests, were slightly apart in a private suite that gave a view of both the action and the audience. She'd always recorded her excursions anywhere, but this time she was certain that Cultural Studies might murder her if she didn't share her footage with them. Small pieces of etiquette between different races, one individual giving up a space to another, which races seemed to be on slightly better terms, little interactions that contained whole discussions. The Conglomerate seemed to prefer to keep species more isolated from each other, seeing them together would be a true gold mine of information.
Before the match even began, Janice quietly alerted her to attempts to send kill signals to the Nvarith survivors of Rorkton Station. She had expected, but it still had soured her mood slightly. Per new protocol, there were three GNATs that had escorted them. Carlson's engineers had developed something of a psychic sensory component that they believed would be able to give them a heads up if they detected any psychic energy in the area. Or they may only sense psychic energy if it was directed at them. Or they may not work at all. It was untestable until they could collect more information, so Abara figured this would be the perfect opportunity.
The lead scientist on this had confirmed with her that the best way to test it was to get this squid race to directly feed it psychic energy somehow. How to do it had been hotly debated. Abara had not experienced the mental touch as she had on the station, so whatever these things were didn't use their powers without some caution. Franklin, their biology specialist, had suggested possibly scanning the other races in attendance. Collection of data from a wide array of implants would help narrow how the psychics worked. Carlson shot that idea down immediately, if the humans were caught scanning everything they came across the Conglomerate would definitely get spooked.
It was Janice who had suggested using the Nvarith delegates. She replayed her recording of Rorkton and showed that their scans had picked up the psychics being used almost immediately. Whatever caution had been shown with using psychics on Terrans wasn't done with their own people. So both Nvarith delegates, having gone through explanations and information of the situation, agreed to it. They had been furious at the revelations and had already promised the full backing to the Terrans that they could provide.
It had been a gamble, but it seemed that it was paying off. Psychics were being used, though nobody could tell to what extent. Janice kept a measure of the Nvarith delegates' vital signs, as it was only speculation if they couldn't shut down the brain without the implant. It irked and ate at Abara to let it happen right next to her, but such was the need for information. Family members of the rescued delegates had already filed an appeal to have them released. When they were informed that they weren't prisoners, they issued demands to see them. Abara had already cleared it, had set the steps into motion to clear security for them to return to their planet.
The cover story would be simple, an electric pulse had been sent out and had short circuited something in the implants. The Terrans, unable to do much more than carry the Nvarith, had fled the station believing that the Nvarith ship had possibly been destroyed already. Using rudimentary medical care, they had been able to resuscitate both the delegates but had not had time to do anything else. With the Conglomerate believing the delegates dead and ill will being pointed at humanity, a cautious approach was decided for revealing that both had survived. They'd be given back to their families, allowed to recuperate, and hopefully return to their duties.
It was the last part that Abara doubted most. If it had been her or anybody else, whoever returned would likely be considered compromised for the rest of their life and find themselves in early retirement or in a non-critical position. But, stranger things had happened.
First Last Next
Author's note: Wow, it's really been a month since the last update. This is only the first update for this weekend, I will have more out soon. My life has been crazy, I enjoy shitposting, and I think I just needed to step away from this for a moment. I will avoid doing so randomly going forward, though I feel I've made that promise before. Thank you for keeping the faith if you have and I hope this is a pleasant surprise if you haven't. To answer some questions I've been seeing:
Thank you again, expect an update tomorrow evening-ish
submitted by jormundr to HFY [link] [comments]

gambling has destroyed my life video

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Inside the brain of a gambling addict - BBC News - YouTube

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