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Gamestop Big Picture: The Short Singularity Pt 2

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average ~$45/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours.
First, thank you everyone for the comments and questions on my first post on this topic. Given the traffic and sheer volume of questions, I figured writing another post would be better (and actually something I can manage).
I wanted to focus this post on a few common themes I saw in the comments to the first post, as well as questions people were asking me directly, and related themes I saw on other posts and subs that I believe would be informative for this sub.
First, a simplified recap of the 1/27/2021 trading day as I saw it. The following is my interpretation of events, and may include personal opinions, assumptions, and outright errors. Apologies for the length, but I hope this helps some of the newer traders thinking about jumping into the water with these sharks. I honestly don't think that you should, but you make your own decisions. I'll just try to help provide some information to help if I can.

Euro Market Hours: Retail Euphoria & The Setup

After-hours and Euro market activity rockets the stock in an essentially unbroken streak from ~$146 to $365. GME long social media is going ballistic.
Volume is too low. There is no sell-side pushback. Allowing consolidation at these prices would be a major setback for the short-side, yet they are doing nothing on volume they could easily push back.
I smell a rat. This is too easy.

5am Eastern: Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt (FUD)

If you ask most retail market participants about how quants with their algorithms, hedge funds with their trading strategies, sophisticated experienced traders, etc., conduct their operations, you will probably get responses about sophisticated programs and high frequency trading, fundamental analysis, risk hedging strategies, lots of math, etc. That is largely true, but it is critically incomplete. The most successful hedge fund managers also deeply understand that beneath the surface, the primal forces driving markets are fear and greed, and they know how to best leverage information asymmetry to play other investors--and especially retail investors--like fiddles.
As retail sentiment reaches fever pitch, Andrew Ross Sorkin gets a call from Melvin Capital just before the start of CNBC's Squawk Box, by far the most-watched pre-US market show and files a breaking news alert at the start of the show.
(Paraphrasing) Melvin Capital is out. They didn't go bankrupt but they came close and took a huge loss. Congratulations WSB, you've won and you've burned the house down, and now that the shorts are out this whole thing is going to crash and burn all the retail investors you dragged along with you.
"Who's going to be left holding the bag?... uh, the thing that concerns me most, at this point, is whether some of these investors will actually start to get out today--they'll look at this and say 'we won the game'--if that's winning, uhh unclear, you know, where the finish line is, uh in that regard, but uh, as much pain as they may have uh, created for Melvin Capital for example, umm, my-my great anxiety at this point is the number of-of retail investors that have been jumping into this uhh.. in literally the last 24 hours who very well may get hurt, uh, far more, and lose far more than some of the hedge funds that were involved, uh in this. Um, let's just show you where we are now..."
"Where are the regulators.. and is this just the beginning?"
Meanwhile, as if it had been choreographed and rehearsed, the Squawk Box team are outraged--absolutely outraged at what is going on, while a big graphic of GME price crashing off a cliff dominates 2/3 of the screen and social media is flooded with messages and posts skillfully crafted to stoke the fear.
In WSB, other subs, and other social media sites, dozens of bots start posting bogus messages purporting to mock the retail investors with messages like "Thanks for the free gainz retards!".
The fear is almost palpable coming through my monitor. People start trying to sell, then start asking why their market sell orders won't go through while they're watching a practically vertical dive on the GME chart next to Joe Kernan as he says "If you think there's speculation in crypto [...] and-and-now they're looking for the next mark, right? They'll-they'll find another Gamestop, once they're done with Gamestop, but in the meantime, there's gonna be BLOOD".
Congratulations Squawk Box--you beautifully played your part in engineering peak, nigh-hysterical fear among the less experienced retail investors, and basically shouted "FIRE!!!" in the market equivalent of a locked theater. I truly believe your feelings were sincere, and you truly do have concern for the retailers who have been and will be hurt in all of the volatility, but that made your actions all the more effective in driving many try to lock in losses. C'mon, you can do better--I've seen you do good work and am thankful for what you did getting good info out during the peak of the pandemic--please do some investigation before spreading only one side of the narrative handed to you by financially conflicted parties. You have analysts doing your background research--any of them could tell you the short interest in GME would take more than an entire trading day to unwind even if the buy-side of every single transaction that day was to close a short position and no new short positions were initiated. Also, any of them could tell you that it's unlikely Melvin Capital held 100% of all short interest in GME. Melvin leaving is not equal to all shorts being covered--and you didn't even get confirmation that Melvin actually covered! Get them to say it themselves on air rather than carrying their water and letting them ride on your reputation and providing cover from an SEC stock manipulation investigation.
Most retail brokerages don't open pre-market trading until around 7am. All those people could do was watch their positions bleed as GME plummeted over the remainder of the next 2 hours, hitting the floor of $182, nearly 50% down from the peak about 3 minutes before retail brokerages open pre-market trading.
Wow. I have to hand it to the short-side hedge funds. Some of your traders must have studied drama for their undergrad or something--that is almost perfect timing.
Almost, but not quite.

Pre-Market Tears... of Joy and Relief

The engineered crash was probably intended to run right through the open of retail pre-market, with the idea of getting panicking retail to sell into the low liquidity environment for more violent downward price moves without the benefit of Limit Up/Limit Down halts, causing a stampede for the exits. Man, how many hours did you guys spend thinking this strategy up? I'm honestly impressed.
Two minutes prior to pre-market open, however, some deep conviction, deep pocket players, understanding the market mechanics and fundamentals behind the recent wild ride in GME started raking in the shares at discount prices they probably never thought they'd ever see again during this campaign. I'm sure tears of joy were shed, as they realized floor-to-close of regular trading gains of nearly 100%. Whoever you are, well played.
I would note here that those people could easily have waited for the engineered crash to drain the blood of the fearful retailers who would have punched out, which would have allowed them to lock in greater share volumes at even lower prices, but they stopped the crash early instead. I don't know if that was their intention, but a lot of retail people were probably saved because of that.
With the almost literally last-minute reversal, price rode green candles upward through the retail pre-market open, and many who would have despaired and punched out to lock in losses instead white-knuckled through the chop and held, with very bullish action through to the market open. Those who survived the day--good on you, I know it couldn't have been easy.

Chamath

Let's let the man speak for himself (and speak up for retail). Well worth spending 30 minutes to watch if you have the time. I have to give Scott Wapner credit--he asks tough questions and he repeatedly brings on guests that he know will go toe-to-toe with him with the gloves off to ensure that there is a good, vigorous debate representing diverse viewpoints. Be on the right side of history big boy, lol.
Skirmishing continues at lower volume than the last 2 trading days. Bullish patterns everywhere--buying up on high volume, straggling down on low volumes. Liquidity is running out. Short-side is rationing, saving ammo for the end-of-day push.

Shenanigans, End of Day, More Shenanigans

At various points throughout the day, levers are pulled to flush retail positions out by margin calling profitable accounts across many of the retail brokerage firms, changing margin requirements with no notice.
Short-side attacks coincide with ominous warnings on news media about potential regulator action, short-side touts spreading FUD across mainstream media.
Short-side's rationed insufficient shares to make meaningful progress on the last tick of regular trading. This is key, as prime brokers of highly levered players pay a lot of attention to the status of accounts at the end of regular trading each day.
After hours it looks like more retail traders are dumped out of their profitable portfolios due to margin change requirements--right into the abyss of super-low after-hours volume. Had their brokers at least liquidated their accounts toward the end of the main trading day into meaningful trading volume they would have gotten much better returns. Dumping them into no volume means the last few accounts took massive losses vs mark to end of trading day market price. Thank, you brokerages, for protecting those people from themselves. Hopefully they took lower profits vs being dumped into the red.
Some people see the diving ticker and panic again.
One thing that was particularly irritating to me is that people were all over CNBC multiple times a day, making outrageous claims of how retail traders were slamming risk into the market via leveraged trades even as the retail brokers changed their policies in realtime to disallow use of any margin in accounts holding GME, and dumped those retail traders out of their positions. I knew what kind of volatility to expect, so I had maintained a net cash position in my account ever since buying, just in case something like this happened--thank goodness.

Technical Analysis for the Day

I wish this sub would allow charts, but I'll describe instead.
On the daily chart, RSI has been in an ascending channel since April '20(!), and rocketed to 98+(!!!) at the end of the trading day. Price is dislocating wildly higher every day for the past 4 days into descending volume.
My read of the chart is that it shows massive buy-side dominance into worsening sell-side weakness and lower liquidity. I read this as mind-meltingly, parabolically bullish, and something that would not be possible if not for the distortion of the supercritical mass of short interest, and I guess this is what a short squeeze looks like when you have access to all the data retail fintech can provide. The technicals tell me to expect massive volatility, but also that this is possibly the most asymmetrical risk environment imaginable.
I feel bad for the retail shorts that I know were out there. I saw a few posts about people taking short positions because Andrew Left got on TV and told them GME is going bankrupt, it's going back to $20, and he's an expert unlike you reddit amateurs, and by the way about 30 other experts followed and backed him up over the past few days. For this reason I'm glad that many of the retail brokerage firms have disallowed shorting GME and other volatile names. I hope they got out before their accounts got obliterated.

Lessons Learned

I wondered what kind of things you might see when billions of dollars were on the line, and I have to say that the short-side guys know how to go all-in and pull surprise after surprise out of the hat. They are good at manipulating people, letting them build up euphoric feelings only to slam them in the face with nonstop fear. They do it in media, and they do it in sudden price-crushing rushes, slamming the ticker down to try to get weak hands to fold. As I stated earlier, I am trading deep in the money, on capital I can afford to lose, and even I can't avoid feeling it. I honestly don't know how some of you trading on borrowed money meant for next month's rent can handle it.
The short-side players are running out of ammo, but they don't just go toe-to-toe in the market--they'll blanket media and even flood your discord server, message board, and social media with well-coordinated bot attacks. You will face those moments of stark terror--they are good getting people to feel fear. If you're thinking of getting into this trade--please understand that before deciding whether to jump in. You might not think that a stock that's been going basically vertical could leave long-side casualties on the field, but believe it--fear and volatility can get you to zero your account (or worse!) in any environment.

FAQs from the First Post (comments and messages)

(answers are my opinions only--do not take as financial advice. I've consolidated common themes.)
First, each person decides on their own what trades they choose to make. However, I will say this: Fear is giving you this anxiety. Maximum FOMO is when you see green candles going up until the fear makes you punch the buy order in. Maximum despair and fear of life-altering losses hits peak during deep downward price movements, making you punch out to avoid losing your entire position. Fear makes you buy high and sell low. HFT houses are full of algorithms designed to exploit fear through the price movement, and find gaps in your risk mitigation strategy (e.g. stop-loss hunting algorithms, etc.). If fear is driving you to trade, I urge you not to swim in low-liquidity waters with sharks who specifically make their money exploiting fear.
You may be surprised to hear that I, and likely many others have thought quite a lot about these things. In fact, I hold about 75% of my capital in the same type of boring IRA and 401(k) accounts you're talking about, and I maybe rebalance them a few times a year and don't even check the balances regularly otherwise.
As for what kinds of impacts there may be--in all honestly, no one knows. Specifically, no one knows because no one knows exactly what the levered hedge funds involved hold, how they trade, etc. The massive short interest in GME is basically a deliberately engineered market distortion that is now blowing off, and distortions blowing off are always scary, and can spell financial damage or disaster for the unprepared.
That, however, is part of the market. To paraphrase Dr. King and Keynes, the arc of the market may be long (and longer than you can remain solvent), but it bends toward efficiency, given the right conditions. The US stock market is pretty good in this respect.
Now I won't deny that these hedge funds are run by smart people, but they occasionally get either arrogant or too clever for their own good and get caught. In GME they essentially voluntarily engineered themselves into a short squeeze entirely on their own while no one was even looking. In fact, the only way the trade works is if no one ever finds out and GME quietly goes bankrupt. In the meantime, a legitimate fundamentals-based turnaround story came to light and just lit the fuse. They’re crying now about being cornered, but they walked into that corner themselves, then dug themselves in so deep that the only way out was GME bankruptcy, and sat there for a year just assuming GameStop would go bankrupt while no one was paying attention and they’d take their free money and walk. If this doesn't make sense, and you have a free 20 minutes and tolerance for mild profanity, I suggest you watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EUbJcGoYQ4
Anyway, That being said, market "corrections" are aptly named, even if painful, because they are, in essence, corrections of various distortions in the market. The longer they go uncorrected, the harder, faster, and more drastic the move when it does happen--with usually worse consequences (see the 2008 financial crisis, which was a distortion 10+ years in the making before blowing off).
I have no idea. I wasn’t looking at Hertz at the time. Obviously it's different in that GME is not going bankrupt despite what some people on the news might say (honestly, I don't understand their apparent conviction on this given most of them profess to not even know any details about Gamestop).
The sense I get is that some people realized that many stocks had their prices artificially suppressed by the pure panic in the market at the time, and were likely to bounce back. Stocks crushed down to penny stock land could easily bounce back multiple hundreds of percent just by moving back up by $1, and if you had a good reason to think they'd survive, that's a pretty good deep value trade.
Some people seemed to jump on that bandwagon with the mistaken idea that you should basically just scan all stocks for things <$5 today that used to be >$20 or whatever and assume the 90+% drop will result in a bounce off the floor, even if it’s a “dead cat” bounce on the way to $0. DO NOT TRY TO TRADE THIS.
The theory is that a $100 stock that drops to $10 on its way to bankruptcy could bounce back to $15 first—a return of 50% if you time the floor and the bounce perfectly. In practice almost everyone who tries this loses all their money much sooner rather than later.
By the same token, people who “know” a company is heading to bankruptcy get their accounts wiped out when they short something on margin right as it hits a floor on the way down, get margin called on the bounce, and subsequently join the company in insolvency as they end up owing their broker more than they put in. Being right in the end is cold comfort at that point.
I guess it could, speaking entirely theoretically. That being said, consider the following:
They’ve already filed to issue $100mio worth of shares, or 500k shares using $200/share as a price assumption. I don’t know if they’ve begun to execute on that.
That was just to give them the runway required to take bankruptcy completely off the table.
As you note, at these prices, using stock to finance a turnaround is absolutely feasible.
There are, however, a few things to consider:
  1. They have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders. They need to be able to justify how issuing even more shares is ultimately beneficial for the company and shareholders. “Because our stock price is high right now” is not typically a compelling reason, though maybe these circumstances are an exception to that rule given the extremity of the price.
  2. While a healthy balance sheet would be an improvement, debt is usually cheaper than equity when it comes to financing a company’s activities. If they can secure solvency with the $100mio stock issue already authorized, and leverage the healthier balance sheet and insanely improved market cap to instead borrow what they need to restructure, especially in this ultra low interest rate environment, that would be better for the company and shareholders.
  3. They can’t just make a snap judgment to do so. It takes time, board approvals, regulatory paperwork that is public, etc. There is a lot of work and potential risk in this process—particularly for this company.
  4. Even if they did this, the incredible total volume of short interest being squeezed means that in practice it would be hard for the share issue to change the trajectory of the stock. The main effect might be to terrify some retail longs into bailing out of their position depending on how the news is presented to them.
That may be true in some ideal theory assuming you are trading in some kind of mathematically ideal market using very specific assumptions, but you’re trading in a real market that includes things like counterparty risk, regulatory and contractual limits on ability to borrow (at least in theory--Hello SEC, threshold securities list??), interest cost, etc. that make trading in an real market different. I'll build on Box by saying all models are wrong, but some are useful--within the bounds of certain assumptions. The situation playing out now tells you that the short interest of GME is wildly outside the bounds of whatever models the hedge fund people are using to model position risk.
You can, in theory, infinitely roll your debt forward if you can continue to find willing lenders and are ok paying interest forever. Maybe this works out to be mathematically preferable to a squeeze to infinity.
But, step away from pure theory for a moment. We don't even have to look at empirical evidence in real markets. All we need to do is build a stochastic model of an equity market sophisticated enough to model margin limits and dynamic account balances tied to securities being traded as they are in real markets and you’ll see the probability of continuing to carry a short position converges to 0 over time. The only question is which happens first: you cover proactively, the underlying company goes bankrupt (and you cover for $0 less interest paid to borrow the stock), or you’re margin called and forced to cover with potentially unlimited downside. Take bankruptcy off the table as we have in the case of GME and you have one of two choices--get out or eventually get squeezed out. There is no such thing as infinite ability to roll borrowing forward in real markets, and if your risk models assume that I feel sorry for you.
I am not a lawyer. I do not give legal advice. And, honestly, I have no idea. I can't think of any securities regulation that at least I may have violated, but I also don't have the ability to lobby the SEC on international news.
I don't know, and most likely anyone who tells you they know is kidding themselves. All I see is a good fundamentals-based position I bought into at a reasonable but bullish valuation followed by the most bullish chart I've ever seen from a TA perspective. I have theories, but there are doubtless other people better qualified to opine on that.
All I can say is if you're in the trade, strap in and prepare for a wild ride. If you're watching from the sidelines get out the popcorn. The rate at which liquidity is disappearing means whatever is going to happen will happen soon (assuming the SEC doesn't step in with an extended pause in trading to bail out the hedge funds).
Thank you for reading, and good luck with your trades.
*Update from Original Draft, 1/28 Pre-Market\*
We're seeing tons of retail brokerages limit trading on GME to only allow selling, even when current positions and intended trades would be cash only?
Wow, I mean it kind of occurred to me in some sort of theoretical, abstract sense that somehow limiting large swathes of retail to sell-only was actually better than a general 2-way trading suspension, but who knew the short-side people could actually get retail brokers to do something so bonkers?? I guess you really do find a way to try basically anything when you're about to lose that much money.
*edits to fix formatting issues*
submitted by jn_ku to investing [link] [comments]

🚀💎🙌 GME (Almost-)ULTIMATE DD 🙌💎🚀

🚀💎🙌 GME (Almost-)ULTIMATE DD 🙌💎🚀

EDIT 3 : CONGRATS TO ALL GME HOLDERS. TRUELY HONORED TO BE PART OF THE GME FAM. 🚀

Introduction

PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) with all the references and better quality illustrations but without updates and typo corrections. This is the FIRST VERSION of the post, but there could be more edits. I wanted to do a more extensive DD but as my exams start tomorrow I don’t have more time. If you want to take my work and extend it, please feel free to do so, just give a little shout out.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, SHOUTOUT TO 🚀💎🙌 GME GANG 💎🙌 🚀, YOU’RE IN MY ❤️.
This DD is just my own analysis. I put my money where my mouth is but this is definitely not advice. Do your own DD.
Last thing: Some stuff might be unsourced in this post but everything is sourced in the pdf version. While it’s not impossible that I might have missed some stuff, most of the time I put the stuff that I quote from other sources in italics. My ego is not big enough to feel like reformulating other people’s ideas and even less to steal other people's ideas. All I do is just gather insightful facts, figures, ideas and analysis.

Big picture

1.1 Macroeconomic View

I will be brief here, I think everyone knows what’s up basically.
Figure 1: although the USD is worth a lot less, the S&P 500 is doing alright. Thanks Jerome.
Enthusiasm is the key word here as we are in an environment with a very accommodative monetary and fiscal policy (thanks for the stimulus checks). Equities and Bitcoin hit record highs thanks to positive vaccine news and the markets hope for a fiscal package. The Federal Reserve is going heavy on asset purchases, bailouts and loans. And its balance sheet is expanding as well as money supply. Interest rates are extremely low.
Check for example, the Shiller PE ratio to see the enthusiasm driving the markets.
On a macro-level side from the risks related to the pandemic, the only worrying signs would be the shrinking money velocity or a suddenly-rising inflation (hyperinflation is bullish for stocks but not for the real economy).
That being said, we know how the FED and the government reacted to support the economy and the markets. Low interest rates and weak US dollar which is continuing to depreciate is very bullish for stocks overall.
I keep the macroeconomic view very short for that GME correlation with the S&P 500 is low - about 28% over the last 6 months. Moreover despite GME’s heavy reliance on brick-and-mortar stores, GME continues to get closer to profitability even with the pandemic.
If the pandemic would make the stock market to crash again during the trade, I wouldn't sell at a loss but wait a few days and then buy a LEAPS. This is my plan. Don't follow it, just make sure you have a plan in case it happens, it's important to avoid buying too much the first dip (because you might get a better price later) or worse, avoid a panic-selling and take a loss instead of tendies.

1.2 Sector(s) View

Figure 4: Video game market value worldwide from 2012 to 2023 (in billion USD)
Figure 5: Retail ecommerce sales in the United States from 2017 to 2024 (in million USD)
Video game total adressable market and ecommerce total adressable market keep growing, that's all we need to know on a macro-level. Now, the real question is not about the market itself but about the compny business model.

GameStop Corp.

  • Market cap $1.31B
  • 1-year performance 209.87%
  • Shares outstanding 69.75M
  • Short interest 68.13M (97.68% of the outstanding shares)
  • Held by insiders Between 13.6% to 27.3%
  • Held by institutions Between 110.5% to 122.0%
  • Owned by Ryan Cohen 12.9%
  • Owned by BlackRock 17.1%

2.2 Timeline


Table 1: GameStop timeline.
Short-term the sector is pretty hot with quarantines and the launch of next-generation consoles which will impact positively year-on-year sales growth. The pandemic could have been an opportunity but GME has still too many physical stores and not enough ecommerce presence yet to take advantage of it.
For the next earning release, the question is : how much PS5 and Xbox GameStop was able to get? And how much they sold in bundles (at high margins)?
Although it’s still unclear from what I’ve found it’s pretty bullish:
GameStop Corp. employees across the country were caught by surprise on Saturday when the video-game chain suddenly announced new shipments of the highly coveted PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X consoles - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-14/gamestop-employees-rattled-by-surprise-shipment-of-ps4-xbox
inverse.com/gaming/xbox-series-x-restock-walmart-target-gamestop-january-2021
https://preview.redd.it/h8lt7bwhd6961.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=e29536613629d3d86bce03bc9e4a89a4e983c337
Figure 6 : https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=gamestop

https://preview.redd.it/n42qka5prw961.jpg?width=1030&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e634ddea7ccf954277a70e57ffa4e957badff22b
The recent Microsoft deal is extremely bullish for GameStop and could help the company to reach profitability sooner than expected. Here are the details about how it could impact GameStop’s profitability:
  • In years 3 and 4 combined, if just 5 million customers extend the subscription for two years, GameStop makes $180 million in incremental profit with zero cost involved. That's nearly a quarter of GameStop's current market cap in recurring income at 100% margin. - Justin Dopierala, “GameStop Revenue Sharing Agreement With Microsoft Shifts Sentiment.” SeekingAlpha.

2.2 Business Model and Management

  • Gamestop is omnichanneling into online activities according to Ryan Cohen recommendations although it doesn’t mean they will execute it perfectly this is bullish.
    • GameStop needs to evolve into a technology company that delights gamers and delivers exceptional digital experiences – not remain a video game retailer that overprioritizes its brick-and-mortar footprint and stumbles around the online ecosystem.” Ryan Cohen.
Table 2: GameStop is dangerously (for the shorts) getting close to profitability.
  • The company attributes the losses this quarter to the end of the console cycle and the limited hardware and accessory availability that came with that, as well as various game delays, and an 11% reduction in its store base - partially offset by recaptured sales at other locations and online. → The company should be profitable very soon despite being priced for bankruptcy for a long time → Expectations are incrediblly low until recently, more investors are believing in the vision esp. with Ryan Cohen.
  • GME e-commerce sales were up 257% year-over-year.
  • GME reduced its selling, general, and administrative expenses by $115 million.
  • GME repaid $10 million in debt in Q3 2020.
  • GME is diversifying sales to include more high margin items like PC accessories, PC monitors, etc (If I speculate, there may be partnerships with certain brands).
  • Focusing on loyalty programs like power ups and rebranding.
  • As of Feb. 2020, GameStop had 5,509 physical stores.
  • GME is closing unprofitable locations: they are closing 1,000 stores in Q1 2021 (by the end of March of 2021).
    • I’d like to quote a fellow GME gang member on this: It's no secret that brick and mortar is falling off, and if GameStop were to fight tooth and nail to remain a largely brick and mortar retailer they would go bankrupt in no time. It is also a fact that underperforming stores drain cash, which lowers net income and thus lowers earnings per share. Any store that is LOSING MONEY or is barely breaking even is keeping the stock price down because it's preventing future growth and killing net incomes. Closing underperforming stores will lead to a higher EPS and more cash that can be allocated to growth. - horny131313.
  • Gamestop is rebranding, and shifting to becoming the one stop video game and video game related product online retailer. While we haven't seen exactly what this will be, it is bullish to see them pivoting into other products besides just video games. Headsets, TVS, PC parts, you name it. You've seen the omnichannel memes, but we know that If they are bullshitting, Cohen will step in. Expect to see real progress made.
Some words from the last earnings:
  • "We anticipate, for the first time in many quarters, that the fourth quarter will include positive year-on-year sales growth and profitability*, reflecting the introduction of* new gaming consoles*, our* elevated omni-channel capabilities and continued benefits from our cost and efficiency initiatives*, even with the potential further negative impacts on our operations due to the global COVID-19 pandemic.*" George Sherman, CEO.
Possible catalysts (from KYJELLYTIME69):
  • A possible new Nintendo console release in ~1-2 years
  • Currently distressed commercial REITs = ability to negotiate lower rent = more $$$
  • Likely return of inflation (debatable but money supply ballooned and we are seeing velocity pick up a bit) with JPOW promising to keep rates at 0% even when inflation comes back = bullish for all stocks, bears will get slaughtered
  • OG printer Yellen manning the treasury in a month + possible dem senate = more stimmy checks = more money going into GME
  • If sales improve and balance sheets continue improve, we might see more credit upgrades
  • Better sales = possible dividend reinstatement, I couldn't care less about dividends but guess who's going to be paying? The shorts lol. If Sherman had balls, he would pull an OSTK and announce a special dividend , which will actually lead to a short squeeze while wsb laughs collectively as we get meme returns from this boomer move.

2.3 The Short-Squeeze Thesis


Figure 6: Stare statistics from Oct. 2019 to Nov. 2020
In terms of metrics, the DTC (days-to-cover) actually decreases, lowering the probability to get a short-squeeze short-term. Don’t get me wrong, this DOESN’T mean that it can’t happen, the % of shares shorted is still crazy high.
Days to cover: It gives investors an idea of potential future buying pressure. In the event of a rally in the stock, short sellers must buy back shares on the open market to close out their positions. Understandably, they will seek to purchase the shares back for the lowest price possible, and this urgency to get out of their positions could translate into sharp moves higher. The longer the buyback process takes, as referenced by the 'days to cover' metric, the longer the price rally may continue based solely on the need of short sellers to close their positions. Additionally, a high 'days to cover' ratio can often signal a potential short squeeze. This information can benefit a trader looking to make a quick profit by buying that company's shares ahead of the anticipated event actually coming to fruition. (Investopedia).
In terms of corporate actions, here is a quote from September mentioning the hostile takeover from Ryan which would trigger a massive short-squeeze, here is the explanation:
Short Squeeze Potential - If Ryan Cohen successfully negotiates a purchase price with the Board then the shareholders will have to vote on it. Unlike the proxy battle where Hestia and Permit were running a minority slate of directors, an offer to purchase GameStop would force institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock to call in their shares. By doing so, the shorts would be forced to close out their positions and GameStop would finally have the greatest short squeeze of all-time. Ironically, Cohen could use this opportunity to sell all of his shares and use the proceeds to entirely fund the acquisition of GameStop going down as the first person in history to acquire a billion dollar company... for absolutely nothing. In fact, his acquisition price would be less than zero. It will be exciting to see how it all plays out as according to Bloomberg/WSJ there are now 58 million shares short as of 8/31/2020 with only 65 million shares outstanding.
If I were short, I'd be sweating bullets right now. This won't end well and will ruin many.
Justin Dopierala is President and Founder of DOMO Capital.
How to know when the potential short-squeeze could happen?
  • Massive volume in short dated calls. [...] If you have shares, DO NOT SELL COVERED CALLS FROM THEM. by doing this you make the likelihood of a squeeze decrease. - horny131313
  • Unwind their short position with some behind closed doors deal. A scenario like this could include: Melvin offering shares of other stocks at discounted prices in exchange for GME shares or to unload a portion of their short shares. The second party to this deal could also offer to buy GME shares for higher than market prices - horny131313
If you want to do a further analysis on short-metrics I put some additional figures - you might find some kind of pattern idk.
Figure 8: Share statistics of December 2020
Figure 9: Available shares to short vs. fees in %.

2.4 Is GME Manipulated?

Maybe.
I know there is actually a prob. with the % daily returns (it isn't equal to 100% BUT the proportions still hold true on a non 100 point basis). The main point is that: negative daily returns were much higher than positive ones.
If you are familiar with the stock market, you might have noticed that winners do not act like this usually: total return was +21% yet there has been 53.3% red days. If you look at regular stocks which have positive cumulative returns it doesn’t happen that often (outliers aside).
This is why I suspect that the stock is being manipulated but the weird stats might be explained just because the stock kept being shorted although it was not enough to keep the price down.
Another opinion on this:
  • Melvin and BoA both have short positions, and are desperately trying to drive the price down. Unfortunately, it is getting harder and harder to convince people that gamestop is a failing business. They are sweating and will continue to sweat. Given the buy side volume, they could close these short positions gradually without triggering a massive squeeze, however it WILL drive the price up significantly higher than it is now. - horny131313.

2.5 What 2020 Has Taught Us?

I think at this point it is the wrong question to ask (is the stock being manipulated?). To me, the most important thing is what is the upside potential and the risks associated? Then, how to trade GME?
  • If you're new to gamestop, the volatility will seem scary but the shorts fight hard with this one. -10% days followed by +20% days are not unusual. - horny131313
I would like to elaborate on this very idea. For this, check GME statistics for 2020:
https://preview.redd.it/t05xum2zc6961.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2e092560bba3b3091a6fe8bf0bceea2ce7b9f5c
https://preview.redd.it/odbxo3sxc6961.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=7897f1dac841aa381b916046c3652e2d2c4ece68
  • Whether the stock is manipulated or not, MOST of the 2020 trading days were negative.
  • The worst daily returns were hard to handle honestly we are talking multiple worst than 14% daily drawdowns.
  • You could more than triple your money WITHOUT LEVERAGE.
  • Let’s say you bought late Apr. and sold late Aug. you could have been at -13% returns and +31% the next week if you had diamond hands. For the real diamond hands you had +147% returns the next 2 months.
Psychologically this was a hard trade for sure. But for those who had diamond hands, it was pretty amazing. If you don’t feel comfortable being at -20% or even -30% returns for months before the stock literally BLOWS UP… Reduce your position and diamond hand with a smaller size. Better to win with less than lose with a lot…
TLTR: DIAMOND-HAND THIS OR DON’T TRADE THIS AT ALL.

Risks

3.1 Upside Risks

  • RC Ventures LLC increases its stake.
    • It could be VERY soon. On the 31 December 2020, someone bought 900K shares, it could be Ryan Cohen given the size of its last purchases:
Figure 10: Last RC Ventures GME Purchases. Notice how the biggest numbers (e.g. 800K & 500K) while the smaller ones weren't (e.g. 320K, 256K or 128K).
Figure 11: Check who tweeted this on the same date as the 900K shares purchase?
EDIT : the recent 900K-share purchase after hours were not "purchases", it was quarterly option settlement. - KYJELLYTIME69.
  • This is very bullish because after the disclosure of additional buying from Cohen last time, even though it strangely took 1 full trading day for the market to pop up, GME shot up 29%.
  • Surprise investors with their holiday sales and/or EPS.
  • RC Ventures LLC gets more than one seat on the board.
  • RC Ventures LLC begins a hostile takeover.
    • On top of its increasing stake, Ryan is supported by both a lot of small and now large investors too.
    • Moreover “there is a decent amount of evidence that Ryan Cohen spent the summer of 2020 hiring a badass lawyer and crafting a pretty solid plan to wrest control of a struggling Mall-based gaming retailer from its out of touch Boomer Board and CEO so he can turn it into an ecommerce juggernaut like his baby Chewy. the attorney listed on each of the 13Ds filed by RC Ventures. [...] Chris Davis, Activist Attorney Extraordinaire and His Successful Use of the Consent Solicitation to Remove Dipshit Boards/CEOs” - CPTHubbard.
  • Moody's Upgrades GameStop's credit rating a second time in a row
    • Hoping for a PR soon confirming the recent redemption of the 2021 notes. Potential credit upgrade from Moodys could come now that GME has officially redeemed 63% of their 2021 notes. If we don't get that now, we should get it in March when the entirety of the 2021 notes are retired. Debt considered investment grade and not junk is a big positive and one most overlook. - Stonksflyingup
  • Short sellers close a part of their position huge short position.
  • A major hedge fund takes a significant position on GME.
  • Dividend reintroduction.

3.2 Downside Risks

  • New short sellers open a position and current ones scale up theirs.
  • Momentum towards profitability dies out and the company goes bankrupt.
    • Honestly if you read this far you know this is extremely unlikely.
  • Share dilution.

3.3 Overview


Table 6: Upside risks
Table 7: Downside risks

3.4 Commentary

Figure 12: GME is one of or even THE most shorted stock for its valuation (in terms of % short interest).
This means two things:
  • It is very unlikely for the shorts to continue to short the company especially when its credit rating is being upgraded - we will see if it keeps getting upgraded or not in March.
  • If the shorts get to short it more (or new short sellers open a position) it will:
    • Drive the stock price down (lower market cap), drive the short ratio higher making the unwinding of the short sellers even harder and as a result making the probability to have a short-squeeze VERY BIG if good events happen moving forward.
    • Push Ryan Cohen to accelerate its plans.
      • I will personally increase my share-position if it happens.

Conclusion

4.1 Prices Targets

Here is a summary of my post:
When the short % of free float went from a high point (~160%) at around February 2020 to a low point (~140%) - which by the way are in absolute terms both huge numbers- the stock went up ~94% BUT most of the gain took place at 2 key moments: at the recovery of the market crash and then in late August which shows that 💎🙌-ing is key to capture most of the gains.
Figure 13: GME returns from 3 Feb. 2020 to 1 Sept. 2020
Why do I say this? Because when holding the stock you could “feel” like you bled when you watch the stats:
Positive daily returns Negative daily returns
49.3 % 50.7 %
But IT WAS IN FACT THE SHORT SELLERS WHO BLED HARD:
Best daily return Worst daily return
23.0 % -13.7 %
Imagine you sold GME when the -13.7% happened. You would not have captured the 94% returns. So just 💎🙌 and let those shorts go bankrupt.
Table 8: PTs.

4.2 Valuations

“Wallstreetbets - GME 4Q20 Financial Model 🚀 🚀 🚀.” Reddit, www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/.
“GameStop Rips Higher as Hedgeye Pitches the Long Side of the Trade.” SeekingAlpha, 23 Dec. 2020, seekingalpha.com/news/3647009-gamestop-rips-higher-hedgeye-pitches-long-side-of-trade.
Thanks for reading.

4.4 Letter to the GME Gang

💎🙌 🚀
BIG SHOUT OUT TO THE ALL THE MEMBERS OF THE GME GANG.
I WILL MAKE MORE DDs IN THE FUTURE IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE.
I AM NOT DELUSIONAL OR COMPLETELY DUMB I KNOW THE TRADE IS RISKY BUT IF WE ARE RIGHT, WE WILL MOON THAT IS FOR SURE.
LET’S MAKE HISTORY WITH THIS ONE.
GME GANG 4 LIFE.
Sincerely yours,
ShortTheNasdaq, a proud member of the GME gang.
💎🙌 🚀
EDIT 2: Delos Capital Advisors turns BULLISH for GME throughout 2021 (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/05/stocks-to-buy-in-2021-strategist-names-three-top-picks.html).
MORE LINKS (not included in the pdf):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/implied-volatility-surging-gamestop-gme-135401645.html
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/krdqp5/gme_4q20_financial_model_update/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/krgvq6/gme_gang_digital_is_the_rebirth_of_gamestop_not/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kr98ym/gme_gang_we_need_to_complain_about_naked_short/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kr02y8/gme_gang_18_consecutive_days_on_nyse_threshold/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-soars-as-short-sellers-take-a-hit-51610572262
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/heavily-shorted-gamestop-soars-most-ever-as-day-traders-circle
FAQ 1 : Is GameStop going bankrupt? 300%+ yearly growth ecom sales, already closing top ~20% of their most unprofitable locations, high margin partnership with Microsoft, new gaming console generation, Moody's recent credit upgrade on 8 Jul 2020 from C (negative outlook) to B3 (stable outlook)... So extremely unlikely.
FAQ 2 : GameStop employees complain about the company, so is the stock going down? Well listen to Apple's iPhone manufacturers or Amazon employees... There is no correlation between their words and the stock price, if any there is a negative one.
Positions: shares, Nov. calls and some cash on the sidelines to buy the dips.
PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) without the corrections and updates but with ALL the references if you want to work from this post or dive deeper on certain points.
submitted by ShortTheNasdaq to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

OBLIGATORY FILLER MATERIAL – Giving thanks edition: Kickin’ around Caracas, Pt. 5

Continuing… (It's Part 6 in the saga, I fucked up. Sorry.)
So, after a few re-fueling and impromptu cigar-purchasing stops in South and Central America, we wheel up to the deserted jetway at LAX.
“Thought we were going to Elmendorf?” I asked.
“This isn’t it?” the pilot replied, feigning worry.
“No.”, I replied, “Looks like California. Fruits and nuts. All around. What’s going on? One minute we’re off to Texas, then Cali, then Texas again, now we end up here at the California airport of the iconic tower.”
“Yeah, it’s confusing enough haulin’ civilians around. But when we get a call from Virginia, we tend to comply without any questions,” the pilot explains.
“Aw, shit!”, I sort of exclaim, “Rack and Ruin called?”
“Yeah”, the pilot replies, “Figures you’d know these guys. They said they were closer to LAX rather than Texas and had us divert here. In fact, you look over there, see that dark blue Chevy? That’s them; and evidently, your ride.”
I tipped the airman from earlier a couple of cigars as he helped me with my gear off the plane and into the trunk of Rack and Ruin’s plain-Jane blue late modeled Chevy. Had to move the Sidewinder Missiles off to one side, though.
“Most honorable Agents Lack and Luin!” I quipped in my faux-racist greeting. “What the hell, guys? I’ve got to get to Japan and get some newly rigidified digits.”
“Let’s see your hand”, Agent Rack asks. “Nasty.”
“Yeah”, I sigh “And with the medicos in South America and their penchant for plaster, I don’t so much have a left hand as more of an ankylosaur tail.”
“Or Thagomizer”, Agent Ruin tittered. “Anyone gives you grief, and one upside the head should set them right. Or dead.”
“You’re a riot, Ruin.” I replied, “But not entirely incorrect.”
We all agreed that I really didn’t need any extra accouterments to make myself look more dangerous. I mean with my severe haircut, stern beard clip, and perpetual ‘Go fuck yourself’ scowl.
“Yeah”, I replied, stroking the aforementioned beard, “I just can’t get that. I’m such a people person.”
After Agents Rack and Ruin finished drying their eyes from laughing what I thought was en extremis, we finally got down to business.
“So, what’s the skinny, guys”, I asked. “New marching orders?”
“No. Not as such”, Agent Ruin said, still sniggering over my ‘people person’ comment.
I see we’re moving. Agent Rack is just driving casually, like Chewbacca when they were waiting to see if the Empire went for that expensive Bothan code.
“Then, what?” I asked, getting a slight bit piqued.
“Well”, Agent Ruin noted, “When you went to South America, you took some of your artillery collection with, correct?”
“You know I did. You even made some snide comments about my personal choice of sidearms and their ‘excessive’ calibers, if memory serves”, I reiterated.
“And if you are proceeding normally, as you always do, they’re all nestled in the trunk of this very car. All cleaned, quiet, unloaded, and smelling sweetly of Hoppe’s Number 9 and WD 40, correct?” Rack inquired.
“Yes?” I cautiously venture.
“Well, ya’ big dummy, do you think they’re going to let you saunter into Tokyo armed like the Third Fleet?” Agent Ruin chuckled.
“Um…well…I do have a Diplomatic Passport.” I ventured.
“That’s not going to work this time.”, Agent Ruin said, shaking his head. “They’re tighter than Dick’s Hatband about sidearms. Want to bring in your Rigby SXS .500 Nitro Express double rifle? Not a problem. Sidearms, especially in your alien hunting calibers, nope.”
Well, that’s just….*dandy!”, I reply, semi-put out. “Now what the hell am I going to do?”
“Ever think that’s why Ruin and I are here, now?”, Rack asks.
“And here I thought it was just so you could bask in the warm glow of my fucking wonderful personality. Or that you actually cared about me as a real goddamn human”, I joshed.
“Ummm…yeah”, Rack replies, “There’s no way we can answer that without going on some Deadpool list. “
I agreed.
“OK, here’s the deal: you get your sidearms, ammunition, speed loaders, brass knuckles, Asp, laser range finders, Sap, Zeiss scopes, Kukri, Wisconsin Cheese Whittler, Buck folding skinner, Marine K-Bar, those two ultra-illegal Cheburkov Cobra titanium switchblades...”
“Three. Olga the KGB lady sent me one for Geologist’s Day.”
“Ahem. Those three ultra-illegal Cheburkov switchblades, that Wyoming Speedholer, your MASER Time-Distance Computer, garrote, pocket rail gun and whatever else lethal you carry and deposit it in the iron box in the trunk. We’ll ensure that it’s delivered to Esme post-haste. And by post-haste I mean one of our guys will deliver it personally.”
“Well…I suppose”, I conceded, “But best send someone who’s been to the house recently. I don’t know how much bigger Khan has grown since I left on this little fantasy trip. Wouldn’t want a star on the wall in Langley for someone eaten by a mastiff. Want to see a picture….Oh, bother. That’s right. My phone’s at the bottom of fucking Lake Maracaibo.”
“Good point”, Ruin interjects, “Guess we’ll do a little road trip and deliver it ourselves. Best call Esme and let her know what’s going on.”
“I have no objections to your proposals. Please give Esme this when you see her. I had some luck in the Calaveras Casino and if I don’t send her some mad money. Ouch. She’ll never forgive me for not taking her along to Japan.” I asked.
“But I thought Esme hated Japan? Too crowded and too ‘fussy’, I believe was her estimation.” Ruin asked.
“Yes, but once she saw the Ginza, all bets were off. Shopping the likes of which even Allah himself hasn’t seen.” I replied, slowly shaking my head.
“I see”, Ruin said, “Well, since you’re off to Sapporo, perhaps you can do a recon for Esme on the shopping there.”
“Not bad. Not bad at all.”, I smiled, “Now I know why I let you guys hang around with me.”
So, as advertised, I am now standing on the tarmac at LAX, basically feeling naked.
“Can’t I keep just one switchblade?” I moaned to Agent Rack.
“Go ahead, if you’re really keen on donating it to Japanese customs”, he replied.
“Fuckbuckets.” I groused.
“There, there now. That’s the usual Dr. Rocknocker of which we’re all so fond.” Agent Ruin chuckled.
“Remember, you do have that wallet-sized credit card gizmo from the Company. So you’re not entirely ‘naked’. Think of it as an emergency breechcloth.” He smiled.
“I’d like a larger model if you don’t mind. It’s chilly out here.” I joshed.
After Agents Rack and Ruin stripped me metaphorically naked as they de-weaponized me, they handed me a Business Class ticket to Tokyo, and a pass to the Japan Airlines Hospitality Suite and Lounge.
“So sorry you guys can’t hang around and have a few farewell snorts”, I chided, “But you’ve got a bit of a drive, so best be off before the weather turns to shit.”
“Who says we’re driving?” Agent Rack asked as he hooked a thumb over his shoulder at the ready and waiting C-130 cargo plane currently taxiing slowly in our direction.
“Well, in that case”, I smiled even more broadly, “Let’s invite the flight crew to join us. That’ll make the flight home all that much more interesting.”
After near tear-jerking farewell sentimentalities, i.e., “Piss on you”, “Get stuffed” and “Take a fuckin’ hike”; Agents Rack and Ruin, my weapons and the Agency’s plain-Jane Blue Chevy were all nestled snugger than buggers in ruggers in the belly of the thundering C-130.
Now truly on my own, I trudge the hundred thousand or so centisteps to my departure terminal, make a quick recon that my flight’s still slated to go in a generally westward direction, and hightail it to the nearest courtesy desk to ask for a motorized cart to take me and my remaining luggage to the JAL Hospitality Suite.
Hey. I’m old, infirm, and currently among the walking wounded.
Anyone that disagrees risks an Ankylosaur tail club swat or Thagomizer to the skull.
Finally ensconced in the JAL Hospitality Suite, Polo Lounge of course; I was drinking Tokyo Teas (3 oz. vodka, 2 oz. gin, 2 oz. rum, 1 oz. triple sec, 1 oz. Midori, good splash of lime juice, a slight splash of 7-Up (diet, of course), over ice with a lime wheel) with Pabst Blue Ribbon Extra 1844 chasers and Hangar One’s “Fog Point” vodka on the side, hiding from the brutish realities of this foul year of two thousand and twenty-something, Common Era…
I’ve already called Esme and we’ve had a good, long chat. She still managed to give me her shopping list for whenever I find myself bored on the Ginza.
She’ll be shocked when she learns that I’m not going to be in Tokyo long, but have 1st class tickets on the Bullet Train to Sapporo. Still, I’ll probably find myself in Pole Town or the Stellar Place there, trading piles of US greenbacks for locally produced Japanese curios and clothing.
I can hardly wait.
I order another round of drinks, as the wonderful attendants in the Hospitality Suite were bored out of their skulls because of the COVID-induced drop-in customers flying anywhere that requires a hospitality room stay, and I was virtually the only one around. They tried their level best to outdo each other when it comes to Japanese efficiency and friendliness.
After a couple of hours, they ask if I would like something from the grill, as the day chef had “the COVID” and the night chef just arrived. A quick perusal of the menu and I chose a 28-ounce dry-aged Porterhouse and another round of drinks.
I usually don’t like to eat too much before I fly, but JAL tells me the flight is going to be virtually empty, something like <121 pax, all told, so restroom availability shouldn’t be too much of a concern.
Plus, who am I to say no to a free, blue 28-ounce dry-aged Porterhouse?
There was a bit of difficulty conveying to the chef through the intermediaries of the hospitality just how I wanted my steak.
“Blue,” I said.
“Brue?” was the reply.
“Rare. Very, very rare.” I continued.
Look of total bewilderment.
I drag out my Personal Language Pro, speak “Steak, very, very rate” into the infernal gizmo, and hand the contraption to the attendant.
“珍しい、非常に珍しいステーキ?”[ Mezurashī, hijō ni mezurashī sutēki?]
“Raw! Nama!” I say, louder than need be.
They toddle off to find the chef.
“How is it sir, that you would like your steak cooked?” he asks.
“Very rare. Just a minute or two per side. Inside still cold.” I instructed.
All I got for the trouble was a puzzled smile.
“Give me the language gizmo…” I type in a few words…
“お尻を洗い、角をノックオフして、ここから出してください”
[O shiri o arai,-kaku o nokkuofu shite, koko kara dashite kudasai.]
“Wash its ass, knock its horns off, and walk it out here.”
“OH!” as the lightbulb pops. “Rare. Got it! Excellent!” the chef laughs and zips back to the kitchen.
Like I always say, I’m nothing if not the international ambassador of amity and goodwill.
“Crack tubes!”
Dinner was fantastic. I do wish I could have somehow mailed the Porterhouse bone back home for Khan. After that hambone incident, he might even taste it.
Finally on the plane, in an almost empty Business Class, the flight captain informs us that we’re headed to Haneda Airport Tokyo and anyone not headed in that direction better ‘haul ass off’ the flight or forever hold their peace.
Late-night international flights tend to be a bit more wooly than your average Chicago to Omaha gig.
Especially when the flight’s damn near empty and we have the next 12 hours or so to be best friends.
We taxi, turn and head into the wind. I’m doctoring up a couple of dossiers and keeping my personal cabin attendant, Luna since there were two of us in Business and two business flight attendants, busy with her trying to play ‘Stump the Geologist’.
“I’ll bet you never had this before.” She beamed and handed me a tumbler of very dangerous-looking brown liquor.
I cautiously sniff, take a modest gulp, swirl and glug the rest down.
“Ohishi Single Sherry Cask”, I say with a muffled belch. “Light. Fruity. An Englishman’s drink.”
“Oh. You knew. Let me try again.” She smiles beatifically.
“I have no objections to your proposal.” I smile as nicely as this crotchety old Komodo Dragon could.
She returns with another flagon of spirits; it smells of obsidian, leather, and earth.
I just had some of this back in LAX. I take a snort, smile, and shotgun the rest.
“Hibiki Japanese Harmony…lovely stuff.” I smile. “A little light for my jaded palate, but I’d never turn it down if it were free.”
“Oh, you win again. Wait. One more.” She smiles and skitters off to the galley.
She returns with another soupçon of some more dangerous brown liquor.
“Here, try this. It will make you very popular at social gatherings”. She smiles.
Sniff. “Splendid.” Snort. Swirl. Smile. Shotgun.
“Kanosuke New Born, if I’m not mistaken.” I smile back. “Very nice. I really do like this one.”
“You too good at this. One more!” she stands and stomps off defiantly. She returns in a trice and hands me the glass.
“Hmm…brown. Light notes of earth, leather, dating your daughter, and Kentucky…
“Beam Suntory, right?”
“You know them all!” she says, feigning irritation.
“And I thank you. Those were all excellent. Now, anything in the dangerous clear liquor category? I asked.
Luna smiled as I palmed off a 20k yen tip.
“Oh, no sir. Wait until we land.” She demurred, referring to the gratuity; which is know is not de rigueur in the Orient, but she didn’t seem to mind.
“Just in case we never make it to Tokyo”, I laughed, unknowingly presciently.
We both chuckled about that last line as she tried out various sakes and shōchūs and an actual Japanese ‘White Liquor’ (ホワイトリカー), which were all excellent as was the company.
I tell her that I need to get some work done and could she bring me a tall Rocknocker. After explain the origins and construction of the eponymous drink, she brings me one that must tip the scales at 1 or so liters.
She settles down to an empty seat and I get after the work that I need to finish before we land. I’m about ½ way through my drink when it felt as if the plane hit a brick wall. She quivered and quaked and clutched at herself while I made some comments about the pilot’s mental health.
We dropped like a paralyzed falcon, then just as suddenly, felt like it was an express elevator to Angel’s 11. The plane bucked and shimmied, wickedly. Then we slam-danced right and fell a few more stories. It was like we were in a Mixmaster and the owner was trying out every speed.
The emergency lights in the 777-300ER popped on, and the fasten seat belt sign barked loudly so even sleeping travelers could enjoy the show.
Rinse. Spin. Shudder. Repeat.
Finally, the ride smooths out and we hear the captain on the blower.
“This is your captain speaking…ah, we seem to have hit some uncharted turbulence back there.”
“Thanks, Captain Obvious”, I muttered.
“Everything’s A-OK. “ he reports.
“That’s good”, I note.
“But…”
“There’s always the but…” I groan.
“…we have a couple of warning lights for which we can’t quite account. So to just be safe and certain, we’re going to divert to Hawaii, get a clean bill of health and resume this flight once we make sure everything here is hunky-dory.”
There were scattered groans and applause. Add them together and divide by two and the average response on the flight was “Meh. Whatever.”
Except for the other guy in Business, with whom I hadn’t shared two words. He began to absolutely lose his shit.
“Oh, man! We’re so screwed! Mechanical malfunction? What does that mean?” he positively fizzed with fear.
The flight attendants tried to calm him down, to no avail. They basically gave up and said they’d report his misgivings to the Captain.
I motioned over to my personal flight attendant, Luna, and asked if I could be of service.
“Oh, Doctor Rock”, she smiled at me, “If you could speak with him. You are so calm, and he is…”
“Losing his bloody mind”, I chuckled as I finished her sentence for her. “Of course, I’ll take a stab at it.”
So, I grab my drink and ease over to my Business Class partner and introduce myself.
“Hey, pal. How’s it going? I’m Dr. Rock, gentleman, scholar, and connoisseur of cigars and things alcoholic. You doing OK?”
He looks at me with an ashen face and his eyes the size of bloodshot dinner plates.
“Yeah. I’m Todd Schotts. I’m flying to Japan for business.” He mumbles
“No surprise there,” I reply calmly and take a slug of my drink.
“But now we’re all going to die. The plane is busted and we’ll crash…” he started off again.
“So, Todd is it? Good. You drink?” I asked.
“Yeah?”, he stammered back.
I asked Luna to make us a fresh batch of my eponymous cocktails.
“OK, Todd, listen up”, I began after the drinks were served, “I have flown literally millions of miles over the last 4 decades. On Aeroflot when it was still the USSR. On TACA (Take A Chance Airways), on Chalk’s in the Caribbean, on Bob’s Verrifast Plane Company in Rhodesia, on regional carriers that don’t even exist anymore. All over the world. Had some bad experiences flying, and me ol’ mugger, this ain’t one of them. This is nothing more than the glitch for this mission.”
I chuckled lightly and complimented Luna on a fantastic drink.
“Yeah…yeah…yeah…but we have to land and check out some lights…” Todd squealed.
“Well now, Todd. It would be rather difficult to do any external assessment while in flight, don’t you agree?” I asked.
“But we’re diverting. We have to land and that adds more risk. We’re going to crash and die!” he was coming more and more unglued.
“I will bet you every cent you have on your person and home bank accounts that that will not happen”, I chuckled.
That took him by surprise. At least it shut him up for a while.
“Look, Todd. This is Boeing’s latest model. They have the most incredible safety record. And if a little clear air turbulence were to be knocking planes out of the sky, don’t you think we’d hear about it as the press went berserk?” I asked.
“But they don’t know what the lights mean! What if one of the engines’s out? How far can we fly on one engine?” Todd stuttered.
Having my fill of a supposedly grown man with inane childlike fears, I calmly replied,
“All the way to the crash site.”
He went white.
“...hope we hit something hard. I don’t want to limp away from this.”
He went limp.
Then I went to my seat and motioned for Luna to prepare a reload.
Of course, 45 minutes later, we land without incident at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport, Honolulu Hawaii.
We were told to just wait around until they figure out what the problem if any, was.
They had officials waiting at the end of the jetway to check our COVID status and passports before they let us loose in the terminal.
I asked Luna if she knew this airport. She noted that she did.
“Is there a JAL hospitality room here at this airport? I asked.
“Yes, Doctor. It’s the Sakura Lounge. It is located on the third level above The Local, Terminal 2.” She replied.
“Please notify whoever needs to know that that’s where I’ll be for the duration”, I smiled and handed her my business card. “See you soon, I hope.”
“Oh, Dr. Rock”, she replied, “I am sure it is nothing much. We’ll be back in the air within mere hours.”
“Well then”, I smiled, “Guess I’d better get ready to hoof it to the lounge.”
“Oh, Doctor Rock”, she smiled, “No rush. I will call for you a courtesy cart. You are injured, you are Business, you are priority.”
“I love that Asian efficiency.” I smiled back and toddled down the jetway.
At the terminus of the jetway, I show my COVID-clear papers, dates and times of my Anti-Virus vaccine administrations, the letter from Virginia clearing me of all detention, and my red Russian diplomatic passport.
While in the cart, whizzing our way to the JAL lounge, the driver said “Man! You must be some kind of VIP. You were through that welcoming committee in less than two minutes!”
“Me? Nah!”, I chuckled, “Just an old phart of a geologist that they didn’t want to mess with. Not on such a bright, sunny day as this.”
“I see you’re not wearing a mask.” The driver quipped.
“Very observant. There are reasons for that.” I replied.
He careens around a corner and if this were a normal pre-Covid day, I’m certain we’d have killed hundreds. However, the airport, as I’ve come to grow accustomed to, was virtually deserted.
“Yeah? Like what?” he asks.
“Well, Scooter, 1. I have an active and hardworking immune system that I let off the chain every once in a while for exercise. Got to let it know what it’s up against, right? 2. I’ve had all my shots and some that were experimental. They seem to have worked. And 3. I find it difficult to drink and smoke cigars while wearing a mask. However, if you’d prefer, I will mask up. No problem, though it still is optional.”
“Nah, man”, he said, “I was just wondering if you were one of those religious idiots or conspiracy nuts.”
Nope”, I smiled back, “Just another geologist out in the world plying his trade for cash. Y’know, whorin’ around for money.”
He laughs aloud as we skid to a stop right in front of Lounge.
I slip the guy a $20 and ask if he’d listen for the JAL flight I was just on. If we’re going on ahead today, I’d need him to scoot by and putt-putt me back to the plane.
He laughs and pockets the $20 as quick as a mink ruts.
“No worries. I’ll just hang around this area. I hear anything about the flight, I’ll come and let you know.” He grins.
“Good man”, I say, as I hand him my card. “I’m Dr. Rocknocker. Call me Rock”.
“And I’m Kapula Mano, call me Kap” he replies.
“Good man”, I say again, “Hope to see you in a while.”
He grins, floors his electric cart, and peels out at speeds approaching 4.5 MPH.
I wander into the lounge, show my credentials, and am escorted to a post up on Mahogany Ridge.
The bar is very quiet. Besides the bartender, I can’t see anyone else in the darkened and Smooth Jazz-infused drinking emporium.
I order a local drink, a Mai Tai, just for the experience and something a bit different.
It’s served in a goldfish bowl on a stem, bedecked with a slice of lime, a sprig of mint, a stick of sugar cane, a polychromatic orchid, and the obligate paper umbrella.
“Ah. Mai Tai. I will enjoy it.” I said to no one in particular.
One was enough, and I decided to go back to the old standard. Once I explained to the bartender what that was, he made them heroic and enthusiastically.
I’m reading up on a random dossier, making notes in a new file, and puffing away on a Fuentes Onyx double Maduro Churchill cigar.
I hear a slight cough coming from my right, and this here lovely lady, she sat to my immediate starboard and looked at me semi-quizzically.
Not in the mood for shenanigans of any stripe, I give her the obligate Baja Canada nod and tilt of the drink. I return to my dossiers and continue to read and take notes.
“Excuse me!” I hear.
Fearing the worst, either the woman is Karen-oid anti-smoking or a religious fruit-and-nutburger, I slowly turn to face her and reply, somewhat glacially, I have to admit.
“What?”
“That cigar…”
“Here we go…” I mutter, eyes rolling northward.
“Smells exquisite. Could you tell me the brand? My husband would enjoy some like that.” She notes.
Instantly my demeanor switches 1800.
“Yes, ma’am. It’s an Arturo Fuentes Onyx. Churchill size, or 60 ring x 7” length, double Maduro. Here, take one for your husband. I have an ample supply.” I smile.
“Oh, no. I couldn’t. Could I?” she asks.
“Please. I insist.” I smile the best I could given the circumstances.
“Thank you. You’re too kind…umm…Mr….?”
“Doctor. Doctor Rocknocker. World traveler, oilman, and international ambassador of amity, good drinks, and fine cigars. Call me Rock” I said.
“Oh! A Doctor?” she brightens.
“Yes, of Petroleum Geology and Engineering. Not medicine.” I chuckle.
She chuckles back.
“And I am Hella Aaberg”, as she offers her hand for a quick shake.
“Interesting name, Hella. Scandinavian or Old German heritage?” I ask.
“On my father’s side. He’s Finnish.” She replies.
“But I’ll wager your mother is not Scandinavian, correct?” I ask.
“She was from Truk, an island…”
“In the South Pacific, Micronesia. Was she from Weno city?” I asked.
“Why yes. How could you possibly know that?” she asked.
“Oh, I’ve been there. Great diving amongst the WWII wrecks. I think it’s actually called ‘Chuuk Lagoon’ or something like that now.” I said.
“That’s right! Amazing. Where else have you been?” she asked.
“Anywhere there’s oil, strife, booze, cigars, heavy explosives and typically long distances from whatever most normal people call civilization,” I replied with a chuckle.
Suddenly, I hear a voice booming out behind me.
“Why don’t you save that rapier-like wit for those musky-fuckers back home, Rocko?”
My expression changes. My eyes pop fully wide open.
“Hella?” I asked.
“Yes?”
“May I ask you a favor?”
“You can ask…”
“Thank you. Now, looking over my shoulder, is there a hulking goon of a person, thin up top, paunchy halfway down with the most ridiculously tiny sized shoes you’ve ever seen for a so-called grown man?” I ask.
“Yes. Yes, there is.” She replies.
“I thought so. Many thanks.”
I spin and launch off my barstool and grab Toivo by the hand. He hadn’t seen my left-hand Thagomizer yet.
“Toivo! You old sumbitch. What the flying fennec fox fuck are you, of all people, doing in Hawaii?” I laughed.
“Just keeping an eye on you, Rock!” he laughed equally as loud.
“No, fucking-A, seriously. What the actual fuck? What are you doing in this actual nice place?” I asked.
“Just headed to Tokyo to conduct a bit of service company business. I walked into the lounge and smelled a foul cigar. I figured it can’t be the venerable Dr. Rocknocker. He’s back at some school up north terrorizing geology and engineering grads and undergrads.” Toivo laughed.
“But there I was. Surprise!”, I laughed and pumped his hand.
“What the fuck, Rock. Now what did you do?” he asks, referring to my Ankylosaur tail club left hand.
“Ah, fuck. Long story. Oh, pardon me. Toivo, this is Hella. We were just talking about the South Seas Islands.” I said.
“Planning on running off together?” Toivo laughs, to the amusement of neither party.
“Oh, and this idiot is Toivo, a man with a congenital foot-in-mouth disorder. He’s mostly harmless.” I noted to Hella.
Greetings were shared all around. Hella made some small excuses and said she needed to depart. I gave her another cigar for her husband, shook her hand, and wished her well.
“Here’s my business card. If your husband has any questions, have him drop me a line.” I noted.
Hella smiled beautifully. She said she would. Then she thanked me shook our hands, and like that, there she was, gone.
“Well Toivo, you old bastard. Don't just stand there in the doorway like some lonesome goddamn mouse shit sheepherder, get your ass over here and have a drink.” I motioned over to my perch on Mahogany Ridge.
“Don’t mind if I do”, he says as he deftly winds his way to a seat to my left, snagging a cigar out of my pocket on the way over.
“You might want these”, I say in an exasperated tone, and hand him my gold Dunhill Hobnail lighter and V-cutter gizmo.
He cuts and fires up his heater.
“What you drinkin’, Rock”, he asks.
“Anything with alcohol, as usual. You know that Toiv.” I reply.
“No. I mean right now.” He clarifies.
“Well, I had a Mai Tai. Very nice if you like fruity, flowery drinks. It’s the locals’ favorite.” I reply.
“Sounds good. I’ll have several. And you?” Toivo asks.
“My usual. The bartender is already apprised of the situation.” I reply.
Toivo smiles the smile of one knowing his sobriety is going to be taken out for a swim. Hell, taken out and tossed into the deep end.
Toivo and I sit there, swapping lies, smoking cigars and sipping at our toddies.
Hell, Toivo was slurping them like a sump-pump during an extra-wet summer.
We chattered about family, work, whether or not Tokyo was going to host the Olympics or if the COVID-boogie man scared everyone off.
Toivo, always one afflicted with TB (“Tiny Bladder”) got up to go to the loo for the third time that hour. He left his pocket organizer on the bar and I swear on a stack of Origins of Species, I didn’t touch it.
I reached over to his vacated seat to retrieve my cigar lighter when I looked down and saw in his organizer a tab that reads “Rack & Ruin”.
“Oh. No. Fucking. Way.” I recoiled as I’d just reached out and petted a 6-foot hungover scorpion.
“One of my best friends? Secretly allied with the Agency? No. Not possible.” I drained my drink and called for another.
“No. No. No. It can’t be. No. No fucking way…” as doubt began to dissolve when I thought back to all those times I had just ‘run into’ Toivo.
“But he’s oil patch as well. That could be chalked up to coincidence.” I ruminated quizzically in my brain.
I quickly reflected back on J.M. Darhower: “Yes, you see, there’s no such thing as coincidence. There are no accidents in life. Everything that happens is the result of a calculated move that leads us to where we are.”
She may be the author of the execrable New Adult Sempre series, which Esme likes and I loathe, but she might just be right on this occasion.
Toivo return, lighter in the bladder and good sense. He never even noticed he’d left his organizer out in broad bar light for all to see.
“So, Toivo, when’s your flight?” I ask.
“Oh, man. Was I lucky. The JAL flight to Tokyo from Los Angeles had mechanical trouble and had to divert here. I got a ticket on the plane for that flight, when it continues.
“You mean ‘if it continues’,” I replied.
“Yeah. Yeah. That’s what I meant. Hey! Was that your flight?” he asks innocently. He’s really innocent of fieldcraft.
I decide to have some fun at my old friend’s expense.
“Yep. Hit some CAT (Clear Air Turbulence) and the JAL pilots reported some lighting problem. No apparent ruin to any of the systems. They relay racked their brains to figure it out, but they couldn’t that’s why I here.” I said, waiting for the words to swim upstream in Toivo’s coconut and make some sort of connection.
“Yeah. Double lucky. No problem with the plane and I get to go to Japan early.” Toivo crookedly grins.
“So, no trouble with the plane? Then why haven’t I heard that the flight’s going to resume?” I asked as I pushed a fresh, seriously strong drink to Toivo.
“Oh, must have heard it in the john.” Toivo countered and tried to cover his tracks by taking a huge gulp of his drink and damn near dying coughing.
I pound on Toivo’s back.
“Heimlich time?” I ask.
Toivo signals ‘no’.
“Jesus Christ, Rock. What was that?” he asks.
“Just my usual”, I innocently replied.
“Holy fuck. No wonder you have the reputation of…” Toivo realizes too late that he’s said too much.
“Yeah. They can rack you out. Really ruin a person if they’re not careful.” I reply icily.
“Why, Rock. Whatever do you mean?” Toivo slurred as he realized he’s been caught out.
“The jig is up, you turncoat. You know Agents Rack and Ruin from the agency. Right? You keeping tabs on me for them? You Quisling! You Benedict Arnold!” I almost was on the verge of losing my cool.
“It was nothing. They approached me years ago as I kept being mentioned in your reports. They asked me for some information. One thing leads to another…” Toivo was ready for an Ankylosaur tail club swat to the bean.
“Oh, put your fucking hands down, you asshole.” I smiled and chuckled.
“You’re not mad?” Toivo slurred badly. I had the bartender make him another special drink.
“No, Toivo. Not mad. Just disappointed.” I said, smiling like a Komodo Dragon just finishing up a fortnight-old wildebeest.
Toivo sat there and puzzled and puzzled until his puzzler was sore.
“You’re not going to kill me or anything rude like that?” Toivo asked, half-assedly trying to inject humor into the proceedings.
“Nah. The paperwork’s too ridiculous for me to do another liberation. But, Jesus Fucking Christwagons, Toivo; you could have mentioned it to me. Fuck, I thought we were friends to the end?” I said, dejectedly.
I was really getting through to Toivo. I could tell he was loaded; feeling like shit and massively deplorable.
Great fieldcraft, indeed.
I told him things “are what they are” and that I won’t blow his cover nor his honorarium.
He began to feel better. I often wonder if he was serious about the sanctioning thing.
Then I delivered the strategic missile strike.
“Just remember, Toivo. I wrote your dossier for the Company…”
He swivels to look at me.
“And one for the KGB. Olga says ‘howdy’.” I grin evilly.
Toivo short-circuited at that. Russia is his company’s bread and butter. Now he has the KGB as well as his best buddy looking over his shoulder at every move.
I bought him a few more drinks and continued to needle him about his ’leading a double life’. He was well and truly fuckered when the electric tap-tap driver from before came looking for me to whisk me back to the plane.
Seems it was simply some knocked-out wires on the plane, or slammed bulbs that were generating a false positive, indicating something other than the system that alerts one to something haywire went haywire.
Toivo was pretty much down for the count. I got him sober enough to hand them his ticket and ensure that he was really supposed to be on this flight. Thing was; h e was in Economy, and I was, as always, in Business.
I spoke to Luna, and the plane was going to be even less crowded than previously because some folks could or wouldn’t wait, or didn’t want to go on with the rest of the trip on a ‘damaged’ aircraft, or were just stupid and superstitious.
“Luna, could I pay for the difference between Business and Economy for my less than 100% conscious friend here? He’s had a rough day.” I asked.
“Dr. Rock. Just put him into Business. No one will be the wiser. Luna says so.” As she gave us a grand smile.
“Luna, I owe you. Thanks so much.” I said.
“Now get on board. Your friend looks like he needs all the downtime he can get.”
“Yes, ma’am!” I said and saluted here be best I could which dragging a schnozzled Toivo down the jetway.
I dumped Toivo in a window seat well away from my seat. I know Toivo. He snores like a semi-load of live hogs rocketing downhill locking up the brakes at 88 MPH.
Surprise! There was no one else in Business. Luna looked at me, at Toivo, and gave me a thumbs up.
Whatever I can write to further her career at JAL, she’ll have it before I deplane.
We finally get everyone settled, and with Captain Kangaroo at the helm, we bounced gracelessly off the tarmac, into the warm, tropical Hawaiian air, finally headed for the Land of the Rising Sun.
Toivo was snoring like a chainsaw hitting rusty nails as I worked on the various letters, communiques, and dossiers which needed updating before we reached touchdown. I gave Luna a thick letter with instructions not to open it until we were on the ground and Toivo and I were well off and away into the terminal.
We left Hawaii at 1300 hours, so we should arrive at Tokyo Nareda around 4:00 pm, the previous day. I was so bereft of time and time zones, I couldn’t figure out what time it really was, as judged by my biometric rhythms, so I asked Luna for a stiff drink as I was kicking off my boots and going to attempt to get some kip.
She brought me another liter or so eponymous drink. I was sawing logs by the time I slurped the last swig of that nifty drink.
Suddenly, or later, I have no idea really, some loudmouth drunk asshole from way-the-fuck-back in economy-land toward the ass end of the plane staggered into Business demanding free drinks.
Luna was nothing but civil, and asked him to both shut up and return to his seat. His air cabin hostess, or whatever the fuck they’re calling them these days, will attend to his needs.
“Naw they won’t! They want me to pay for more drinks! I’m broke but I demand more booze! You fucking owe me.” railed the asshole. “I sat at the bar in Hawaii for four hours. Them fuckers charged me an arm and a leg!”
“No, they don’t owe you shit”, I said in a voice that unmistakably loud and clear.
“Fuck you, old man! You stay the fuck out of this!” he bellowed. “Shut up or I’ll do ya’!”
“’Old man’? ‘Do me’? Excuse me. Luna, may I have a word alone with this individual?” I asked sweetly.
Luna shook her head in the affirmative, and I stood up to confront this flagrant asshole.
“Now look, Scooter. You have gone way, way over the fucking line. You are loud. You are abusive. You are obnoxious. And you stink. Plus you insulted a person who is just barely containing his righteous wrath right now. So, I’m giving you one and one only chance to shut up, sit back down before your body spontaneously develops all sort of bruises, contusions, broken bones, and unconsciousness.” I said calmly, evenly, and threateningly.
“What da’ fuck you think you’re going to do…old man?” he screeched, trying to inflate himself into full mammalian threat posture, all 5’ 9” of it.
He didn’t notice Toivo walking up quietly behind him, as Toivo was returning from the head, quiet as a moose.
“Well, Scooter, I am an Air Marshall. Duly appointed, fully trained, and properly pissed off. Right now, I can arrest you, physically detain you, turn this flight around and take you to the Hawaiian police, at your cost for the inconvenience of the entire flight. Or I could arrest you, physically detain you, and turn you over to the Japanese authorities when we land. It’s really your choice. Choose wisely.”
To be continued…
submitted by Rocknocker to Rocknocker [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Newcomers FAQ - Please read!

Welcome to the /Bitcoin Sticky FAQ

You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments.
It all started with the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following articles/books/videos as a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Some other great resources include Michael Saylor's "Bitcoin for Everybody"' course, Jameson Lopp's resource page, Gigi's resource page, and James D'Angelo's Bitcoin 101 Blackboard series. Some excellent writing on Bitcoin's value proposition and future can be found at the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute.
If you are technically or academically inclined check out developer resources and peer-reviewed research papers, course lectures from both MIT and Princeton as well as future protocol improvements and scaling resources. Some Bitcoin statistics can be found here, here and here. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin for Corporations is an excellent open source series on corporate legal and financial bitcoin integration.
You can also see the number of times Bitcoin was declared dead by the media (LOL) and what you could have earned if you didn't listen to them! XD

Key properties of Bitcoin

Where can I buy bitcoin?

Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
You can also purchase in cash with local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage.
Note: Bitcoin are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year.

Securing your bitcoin

With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoin OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoin for you.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email!
2FA requires a second confirmation code or a physical security key to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
Avoid using your cell number for 2FA. Hackers have been using a technique called "SIM swapping" to impersonate users and steal bitcoin off exchanges.
Google Auth Authy OTP Auth andOTP
Android Android N/A Android
iOS iOS iOS N/A
Physical security keys (FIDO U2F) offer stronger security than Google Auth / Authy and other TOTP-based apps, because the secret code never leaves the device and it uses bi-directional authentication so it prevents phishing. If you lose the device though, you could lose access to your account, so always use 2 or more security keys with a given account so you have backups. See Yubikey or Titan to purchase security keys.
Both Coinbase and Gemini support physical security keys.

Watch out for scams

As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the r / btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. As they say in our community, "Don't trust, verify".

Common Bitcoin Myths

Often the same concerns arise about Bitcoin from newcomers. Questions such as:
All of these questions have been answered many times by a variety of people. Here are some resources where you can see if your concern has been answered:

Where can I spend bitcoin?

Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card or Fold card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Store Product
Bitrefill, Gyft Gift cards for thousands of retailers worldwide including Amazon, Target, Walmart, Starbucks, Whole Foods, CVS, Lowes, Home Depot, iTunes, Best Buy, Sears, Kohls, eBay, GameStop, etc.
Spendabit, Overstock and The Bitcoin Directory Retail shopping with millions of results
NewEgg and Dell For all your electronics needs
Piixpay, Bitbill.eu, Bylls, Coins.ph, LivingRoomofSatoshi, Coinsfer, and more Bill payment
Menufy and Takeaway Takeout delivered to your door
Expedia, Cheapair, Destinia, Abitsky, SkyTours, the Travel category on Gyft and 9flats For when you need to get away
Cryptostorm, Mullvad, and PIA VPN services
Namecheap, Porkbun Domain name registration
Stampnik Discounted USPS Priority, Express, First-Class mail postage
Coinmap and AirBitz are helpful to find local businesses accepting bitcoin. A good resource for UK residents is at wheretospendbitcoins.co.uk.
There are also lots of charities which accept bitcoin donations.

Merchant Resources

There are several benefits to accepting bitcoin as a payment option if you are a merchant;
If you are interested in accepting bitcoin as a payment method, there are several options available;

Can I mine bitcoin?

Mining bitcoin can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read the mining FAQ. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out.
If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node. You can view the global node distribution for a visual representation of the node network.

Earning bitcoin

Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoin by being paid to do a job.
Site Description
WorkingForBitcoins, Bitwage, Cryptogrind, Coinality, Bitgigs, /Jobs4Bitcoins, BitforTip, Rein Project Freelancing
Lolli Earn bitcoin when you shop online!
OpenBazaar, Purse.io, Bitify, /Bitmarket Marketplaces
/GirlsGoneBitcoin NSFW Adult services
A-ads, Coinzilla.io Advertising
You can also earn bitcoin by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoin for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoin).

Bitcoin-Related Projects

The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
Project Description
Lightning Network Second layer scaling
Liquid, Rootstock and Drivechain Sidechains
Hivemind Prediction markets
Tierion and Factom Records & Titles on the blockchain
BitMarkets, DropZone, Beaver and Open Bazaar Decentralized markets
JoinMarket and Wasabi Wallet CoinJoin implementation
Decentralized exhanges Decentralized bitcoin exchanges
Keybase Identity & Reputation management
Abra Global P2P money transmitter network
Bitcore Open source Bitcoin javascript library

Bitcoin Units

One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
Unit Symbol Value Info
bitcoin BTC 1 bitcoin one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
millibitcoin mBTC 1,000 per bitcoin used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
bit bit 1,000,000 per bitcoin colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
satoshi sat 100,000,000 per bitcoin smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki.
Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit.
Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval.
Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
submitted by BitcoinFan7 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

When a body is found 600 miles away... Extensive two part write up on the bizarre case of Judy Smith (1997). Part 1 of 2.

Hello everyone, for the last few months I have been creating long form write-ups on a variety of unsolved cases. If you are interested in other lengthy write ups you can find them on my profile- https://www.reddit.com/useQuirky-Moto.
Months ago, I was asked to cover the inexplicable case of Judy Smith, a woman who went missing from Philadelphia or perhaps Massachusetts, only for her body to be found in North Carolina months later. The case was famously covered on the show Unsolved Mysteries, and it is strange enough to warrant a long, hard look at the case and a comprehensive timeline. I hope you are able to learn something new about this semi well-known case.
Background
Judy Smith was born Judith Eldridge in Massachusetts in 1946. Right out of high school Judy married for the first time. Her husband and she had been married very shortly when in an attemot to avoid the draft, he fled to Sweden. Judy went in search of her young husband but soon returned to the states empty handed and filed for divorce. Years later, Judy married Charles Bradford a man who worked in the racehorse industry. They had two children together, Craig and Amy, but unfortunately the marriage did not last and soon Judy found herself jobless and raising two children by herself. Rather than fret, Judy got a job and enrolled in nursing school. Judy was known to study in all of her free time and soon became a successful home health care nurse. In 1986 at age 40, Judy was caring for a man who was recovering from throat surgery when she met her patient’s son, a well to do lawyer named Jeffrey Smith. Jeffrey said he was impressed by how Judy cared for his father and asked her on a date. Judy and Jeff had several things in common, both had been divorced single parents who raised children alone, and Jeffrey worked in healthcare as well, except he was a lawyer. The couple both enjoyed going to plays and Celtics basketball games. After seven years together, Jeff and Judy moved in together and three years later the couple married in Nov., 1996.
According to friends and family, Judy was a rather assertive and independent person. She was no stranger to travelling alone. Judy had been to Europe on her own a few times, and when her children were pre-teens, she took them to Europe for a backpacking adventure. Judy also independently traveled to Thailand where she went hiking and visited friends. While Judy wasn’t the epitome of fitness, she was an active person who enjoyed walking, hiking, and sightseeing. She was also known to be a go-getter who once helped an AIDS patient who was having a medical crisis on a plane. So, while Judy was kindhearted and considerate, she wasn’t thought to be naive and was able to take care of herself in a variety of different situations.
The disappearance
Five months into her new marriage on April 9th 1997, Jeffrey prepared to attend a conference in Philadelphia that was taking place from Wednesday April 9th-Friday April 11th at the Double Tree hotel in downtown Philadelphia. Judy decided to accompany her husband to Philadelphia and planned to do some sightseeing in the area. Afterwards, the Smiths were going to New Jersey to spend the weekend with some friends before flying back home.
On April 9th in the morning, Judy accompanied her husband to Logan International Airport to fly to Philadelphia, but discovered at the gate that she could not board as she did not have her photo ID. Judy encouraged Jeffrey to take the 1:30 pm flight and assured him that she would take a flight later that day and meet him in Philadelphia. According to relatives, the Smiths took public transport to the airport and Judy apparently took the bus back home and retrieved her ID. Jeffrey flew to the conference while Judy returned home and booked a flight for later that day. Judy boarded a 7:30 pm flight and arrived at the hotel in Philadelphia at approximately 9:30 pm.
Once at the hotel, the couple purchased some snacks and went to bed. The next morning Jeffrey awoke and ate breakfast at the complimentary buffet downstairs while his wife was still asleep. When he returned to the room Judy was in the shower. The two talked about several things, and Judy explained that she planned on taking the PHLASH bus in order to see the famous sights such as the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall. The Smiths planned on meeting up at the hotel in the evening to attend the conference’s 6 pm cocktail party together. With that squared away, Jeffrey attended the conference. Sometime in between 9 and 10 am a hotel concierge recalled seeing a woman matching Judy’s description ask how to get to the PHLASH bus stop. The woman was in her 50s, with shortish hair, wearing a dark colored coat, blue jeans, and white tennis shoes, carrying a bright red backpack. (Picture of the Judy wearing the backpack here).
At approximately 5:30 pm Jeffrey who was done with the day’s sessions returned to the hotel room expecting to find Judy waiting for him. Judy wasn’t there, so Jeffrey attended the cocktail hour in the hopes his wife was already visiting at the party, but she wasn’t there either. For the next 45 minutes, Jeffrey floated between the room and the party hoping to find Judy. At approximately 6:15 pm Jeffrey told the concierges that his wife had not returned from sightseeing and the hotel staff began calling local hospitals. At 6:30 pm, Jeffrey hopped in a taxi and instructed the driver to take the PHLASH bus route slowly so he could look for his wife. In one interview Jeffrey recalled that he made the driver go so slow it angered those stuck behind him. After a few hours without any sign of Judy, Smith called the police to report his wife missing. Shockingly, the PPD told Jeffrey that he couldn’t file a report until it had been twenty-four hours since the last final sighting of Judy. After lodging some complaints with some high-ranking officials within the city, a missing person’s report was taken for Judy Smith on the morning of April 11th, 1997 (Lewis, 1997).
Jeffrey called his step children and asked them to check the house in case Judy had gone home, and he also asked that they would check the answering machine, but there were no messages of note and the house was empty.
A check of the hotel room showed that Judy had left with her signature red backpack, her wallet, the jewelry she normally wore including a diamond engagement band and a simple silver wedding ring, and the clothes on her back. Jeffrey estimated that she had approximately $200 dollars with her at the time.
According to later interviews with Philadelphia investigators, Judy, or someone with her name did in fact buy a USair ticket on the 7:30 pm flight into Philadelphia. Her ticket was used to make the flight and her seat was occupied on the flight into Philadelphia (Justiceforjudy.org). At the time of the Smiths’ trip, regulations that required photo identification to board a plane had only been in effect for 18 months and Judy had flown only one other time during that time frame. Additionally, police have a luggage tag from Judy’s suitcase that showed that she took the 7:30 pm flight, and that her bag did not travel to Philadelphia with Jeffrey earlier in the day (AP, Oct 4th, 1997).
Sightings
As news of Judy’s disappearance spread, many people called the police station to report various sightings of Judy.
One PHLASH driver remembered picking up Judy in the early afternoon at Front and South streets, a stop near the Double Tree.
There was also a reported sighting of Judy entering the Greyhound bus station at 11th and Filbert sometime in the early afternoon. This station is a common place for tourists to use the bathroom and is only a 10-minute walk to the DoubleTree hotel. One report claims Judy was seen entering and then exiting the station but most reports mention only entering the station. This area was close to Philadelphia’s Chinatown and Jeffrey speculated that Judy may have gone to Chinatown for lunch as she loved both Chinese and Thai food, but no restaurant owners remembered seeing Judy that day.
There was yet another sighting of a woman who looked like Judy at around 3 pm near the hotel; witnesses claimed this woman seemed disoriented.
A number of sightings were reported over the next few days in the waterfront area of the city called Penn’s Landing. A variety of people claimed to have seen Judy. Some witnesses said she seemed confused or dazed. Judy’s two children, her son in law Jay, and Jeffrey looked into these sightings and discovered that there was a homeless woman in the area who looked strikingly similar to Judy and it is believed that many witnesses saw this woman rather than Judy Smith. This local resident looked so similar to Judy that at one point Judy’s son Craig crossed the street thinking he had discovered his mother, only for it to be the other woman. Police officers and volunteers stopped this woman a number of times as well.
One transient in the area, a man named David, was insistent that he saw Judy, not the other woman, on the night of April 10th in the Penn’s landing area, either resting or sleeping on the bench. He was insistent it was Judy, and not the other woman as he knew the other woman from the neighborhood. Judy’s son believes this story is credible as David was coherent and very willing to be interviewed, even though there was nothing to be gained from his testimony and he was simply happy to help the family. He also identifed Judy from a collection of photos, something many other witnesses were unable to do.
On April 11th an employee at a Macy’s department store in Deptford, New Jersey believed that she interacted with Judy Smith in the morning on that day. She described the clothes Judy wore, right down to the old red backpack. This shopper told the employee, that she was buying some dresses for her daughter but laughed because her daughter often disliked the pieces that she purchased for her. Judy’s family confirmed that this was acurate and affirmed that Judy sometimes shopped at Macy’s. The customer appeared to be slightly disoriented as she asked a young woman in the store to leave with her, thinking that the other customer was her daughter or a someone else she knew. One report says that Judy asked another customer in the store about menopause, a very odd subject to talk about, especially with someone you don’t know in a department store.
This mall complex was in Deptford, New Jersey, a bus ride away from Philadelphia, across the Delaware River. According to newspaper reports, NJ Transit Buses had routes which traveled from downtown Philly to Deptford hourly, and the stop was very close to the mall the sighting took place at, meaning it was possible for Judy to have boarded the bus and ended up in Deptford quite easily. Unfortunately, the Macy’s didn’t have security footage which showed this customer and the woman paid for her purchases in cash.
After a second story ran in the newspaper on April 14th, a variety of other witnesses came forward with stories. The most famous report came from a Society Hill hotel employee who explained that a woman who matched Judy’s description stayed in the hotel from April 13th-15th. The woman appeared to have psychiatric problems and did a variety of strange things during her stay such as touch herself very noticeably in front of the window (it’s unknown if this was in her room or in the lobby), speak in tongues, and finally claimed that “the emperor” would help her pay for her stay at the hotel. This wacky guest was remembered by several employees including the hotel manager, a woman named Abby Gainer, who alerted the police. The strange guest told the employees that she wanted to stay at the hotel for another night but didn’t have the funds to do so. She later said she would get the money via a Western Union wire transfer from “the emperor” (Altman, 1997).
The nearby Best Western Hotel had a similar situation with a similar woman. Concierge Tyrone Taylor remembered that on the 15th, a woman matching this description entered the hotel to use the telephone in the late afternoon. The woman was speaking loudly and said that “the emperor of China” was going to pay for her stay as she did not have the cash to pay for a night at the hotel. Taylor reported that the woman was well dressed and did not appear to be a transient. Both hotel employees reported that the woman was a heavyset blonde in her 50s, wearing heavy dark makeup, eye glasses with tape on the side, and nicer clothes. Gainer reported the woman was sporting an expensive looking scarf with camels and roses on it. The woman, who signed in as "H. K. Rich/Collins," did not have any luggage with her and was wearing very different clothes than Judy was last seen in. When Taylor called the police to report his sighting, he gave the strange guest a call (she must have left a telephone number) and told her she could have a free night at the hotel. She arrived at the Best Western but police decided that the woman was not Judy Smith (Altman, 1997). The hotel sightings were nothing more than a red herring. Over the next few months various sightings were reported but none seemed to pan out. Many of the sightings were believed to be other people who looked like Judy. After all history has shown that false eyewitness sightings are incredibly common in cases of missing persons.
Philadelphia PD’s investigation
Philadelphia PD launched an inquiry into the disappearance of Judy Smith on April 11th, 1997. Jeffrey tried to report Judy as missing in the late evening hours of April 10th, but the police told him to wait 24 hours. Smith, however, was a well-connected man and after a few complaints to both a Pennsylvania state representative and the mayor (both men were attorneys and knew Jeffrey from previous work functions), Jeffrey was able to file a report in the early morning hours of the 11th. The Smith family made and hung flyers in the area. Judy’s children joined the search and followed up on sightings around the tourist areas of Philly. Police interviewed Jeffrey, Judy’s children, and others in order to retrace Judy’s last steps. Judy left behind her passport at her home in Massachusetts meaning she could not have easily left the county. The Smith’s two landline records were checked but nothing out of the ordinary was found.
After interviews and searches of the area, Philadelphia PD announced that they believed Judy had never made it to Pennsylvania at all and speculated that Judy went missing from the Boston area. This speculation was based on a couple of things.
First, investigators did not believe Jeffrey’s story that Judy couldn’t catch the flight due to a lack of photo ID. Police thought that this story was odd and did not believe a seasoned traveler like Judy would forget her license at home before heading to the airport.
Later investigation showed that someone named Judith Smith took a 7:30pm flight into Philadelphia and flight manifest showed that the ticket was used to make the flight that evening, however, the entire incident is still odd to many amateur sleuths and professional investigators.
Another detective thought it was odd that while Judy had clothes and belongings in the hotel room, she didn’t have any cosmetics with her. Further, detectives noticed that there were few soiled items of clothing in the room meaning that if Judy was in Philadelphia on the 10th, she wore the same jeans and coat that she was wearing the night before. Judy’s children reported that this wasn’t uncommon for their mother as she wasn’t a frilly person. They also said that their mother only wore makeup on occasion and not while traveling so these things didn’t seem out of the ordinary to them. (Personally, I have also wondered if Judy did have some makeup, but it was in her backpack at time. I know plenty of women who don’t wear much makeup, but if you looked in their purse or bag you might find some lip stick or powder.)
Investigators went on to say that no one but Jeffrey could place Judy in Philadelphia during this time frame. This announcement resulted in several eyewitnesses who claimed that they had seen Judy at the hotel. One receptionist from the hotel claimed that on April 9th in between 9-10 pm, she saw Judy arrive at the hotel and greet her husband in the lobby. She said that Jeffrey gave Judy flowers and the two appeared to be apologizing to each other. (Jeffrey said this was the case except Judy gave him the flowers). One concierge remembered a woman in her 50s with a coat and old red backpack ask him how to get to the PHLASH bus stop at around 10 am on April 10th. He knew it was after 9 am because that is when his shift started. Finally, a conference goer named Carmen Catazone, who was sitting in the lobby also recalled the flower incident from the night before. The woman did not know Jeffrey personally, but recognized him from the conference. Jeffrey was a moderator for a variety of sessions and was very overweight so he was easily recognizable. These witness’ accounts seem to line up with Jeffrey’s story. As far as I can tell the flower story had not been released to the press at this point.
Finally, Philadelphia PD divulged that Jeffrey wasn’t fully cooperative, as he wouldn’t submit to a polygraph. Jeffrey denies this and said that as a lawyer he knew that polygraphs are fallible. Further, he claims that he was willing to take a lie detector if it was given by an outside agency such as the FBI, but Philadelphia police declined this scenario. These are the four reasons investigators used in order to prop up their theory that Judy wasn’t in Philadelphia at all. Despite witness sightings, this theory is a popular on online to this day.
Aftermath and Discovery
After several weeks Jeffrey returned to the Boston area and tried to resume his normal life. He drastically cut back his hours at the office reporting that he could not focus on his work. Smith attempted to keep his wife’s case in the spotlight doing interviews whenever he could and eventually landing a spot on the show Unsolved Mysteries. On the show, one friend of the couple called the marriage “tenuous” but modern articles on the case mention that the police could find no one who reported concerns like these about the couples’ relationship. In independent interviews Judy’s adult children denied witnessing any warning signs in their mother’s new marriage. Eventually, Jeffrey hired three private investigators to look for Judy. The PIs faxed over 9,000 missing posters to police departments and hospitals all over the country hoping that someone would recognize Judy.
Five months after her disappearance in September 1997, a man and his son were hunting in the Pisgah National Forest near Candler, North Carolina, a short drive from the city of Asheville. On a steep incline one-quarter mile from a picnic area, which itself was a mile from hike from the nearest parking area, the duo found what appeared to be a human bone. They alerted the police who responded to the scene. Over an area approximately 300 feet in diameter, investigators found most of a human skeleton which had been wrapped in a blue blanket and buried in a very shallow grave. Scavenging animals had dug up the skeleton and a few bones had been carried away. The skeleton was determined to be female. The woman was dressed in thermal underwear under her jeans, hiking boots, socks, a t-shirt, a bra and a jacket. Nearby in two different holes, a blue vinyl backpack and a men’s shirt had been buried. The backpack contained some winter clothing and 80 dollars. The shirt contained a pair of $110 Bolle brand sunglasses, as well an additional $87. A paperback mystery novel was also found nearby. She carried no ID. The slope where the body was discovered was near some hiking trails, but the hill itself was steep and at an elevation of 4,000 feet, the search was difficult. The incline was so severe that one investigator crushed his sciatic nerve attempting to search the area, an injury which required major surgery.
Early coverage of the body’s discovery in the Asheville Citizen Times, initially reported that the police found a body belonging to a woman who they believed to be in her 20s dressed in hiking clothes (Ball, 1997). Several days later, the medical examiner assessed the bones and concluded that the skeleton was that of white woman in her 40s or 50s, who was about 5’3” tall with shortish light brown hair. There were cut marks in the woman’s bra and t-shirt which indicated that she had been stabbed in the chest area, however, no cause of death could be determined. Some reports mention that there was trauma to the woman’s ribs. The decedent also had a severely arthritic right knee (some reports say it was her left knee), extensive fillings and dental work in her molars, and some animal hair on her shirt, which may have been horse hair. The woman did not seem to be a transient due to her nice clothes and dental work. The death was ruled a homicide as the woman had been wrapped in a blanket post mortem and buried. The ME determined that the body had been there for 1-2 years prior. For several weeks the skeleton remained nameless in the ME’s office.
On September 9th, a small blurb about the unidentified body ran in an Asheville, North Carolina paper. 65 miles away in Franklin, NC, an ER physician named Parker Davis was looking at missing poster which had been faxed to the hospital he worked at when he noticed that the woman on the poster had a severely arthritic knee. He remembered the story of the skeleton from the paper who had a similar knee problem. On a whim he called the police who were able to get a copy of Judy’s missing poster. After a preliminary check, the ME contacted Jeffrey in order to obtain a copy of Judy’s dental records. The records were a match, and by the end of September 1997, Judy had her name back. Friends and family were also able to identify Judy’s diamond engagement band with a pear-shaped stone and wedding ring which had been found on or near the body. Some early reports say that the woman had no jewelry and that Judy’s wedding ring was missing, but later reports say that it was found near the body. The area of the burial was searched on at least three occasions so it is possible the rings were not found until later. Missing was Judy’s wallet, red backpack, and some jewelry that she typically wore (it’s unclear what jewelry this is referring to). The coat she was last seen wearing was nowhere to be found and the clothes she was dressed in, as well as those in the backpack were unable to be identified by family or friends. The shirt buried nearby was a men’s shirt and was believed to belong to the killer, not Judy. Furthermore, the sunglasses did not appear to be Judy’s as Judy’s kids said she wasn’t the type to spend over $100 on sunglasses. The sunglasses are an athletic style and to me look like men’s or unisex sport sunglasses.
Buncombe County Investigation
Buncombe County Sheriff’s Department took over the case from the PPD after Judy’s identification. Once it was determined that Judy was the woman in the woods, several residents in and around Asheville reported that they had seen Judy or had interacted with her in the April shortly after she was last seen in Philadelphia. For example, one woman thought Judy had stayed at her hotel from April 10th-12th, one woman who worked at a souvenir shop near the Biltmore house (a tourist attraction near Asheville) thought that she spoke to Judy who said she was from Boston and that her husband was a lawyer. Another woman who worked in a store recalled that Judy with her red backpack. She claims that Judy bought a toy truck and approximately $30 worth of sandwiches. There were two other sightings of a person resembling Judy in the area in a gray sedan. One person claimed to have seen Judy near the Pisgah National Forest in a gray sedan chock full of stuff. This witness said that the woman was looking for a place to camp. Another person saw a woman in a gray sedan in the same area. All sightings occurred in the week or so after Judy was last seen in Philadelphia. Of course, it goes without saying that, eyewitness testimony can be unreliable and the human mind is susceptible to suggestion.
North Carolina investigators traveled to Philadelphia to retrace Judy’s steps. They have said that they don’t believe that PPD did a poor job but simply wanted to cover their bases. Two detectives flew to Philadelphia and determined that Judy probably been there at least briefly before traveling to the Pisgah National Forest. They reported that there was no indication that Judy had been abducted or otherwise forced to travel south. It appeared she at least started the journey of her own volition. In all the sightings of Judy in North Carolina, she was alone.
Buncombe county deputies were able to rule out Jeffrey as a suspect rather quickly, although they concede that anything is possible and Jeffrey could be involved however unlikely it seems. Jeffrey was ruled out based on his size and health. Jeffrey was a morbidly obese man who investigators noted began huffing and puffing when walking quickly or climbing stairs. Because of this they did not believe Jeffrey could have disposed of his wife’s body especially in such an inaccessible area of the forest. Furthermore, they could find no evidence that Jeffrey rented a car in Philadelphia adding to the logistical problems with Jeffrey being a suspect. On top of his lack of car, Jeffrey had less than 12 hours to dispose of Judy’s body as he was seen in the lobby of the hotel at 9:30 pm, and then was moderating a session of the conference at 9:30 am. Driving to the Pisgah National Forest from Philadelphia takes approximately nine hours one way meaning he did not have time to kill and dispose of his wife. One podcast on the case mentions that police could find no large withdrawals of money from the Smith’s accounts which could have indicated the hiring of a hit man or a paid accomplice. (I could find no other corroboration of this claim so take this with a grain of salt.) Jeffrey also kept his wife’s case in the spotlight and suffered many hardships in the wake of his wife’s disappearance. Besides the one woman who was interviewed on Unsolved Mysteries, no other friends or family reported that there were issues in marriage that they were aware of.
Philadelphia police also struggled with Jeffrey’s size as carrying and disposing of a dead body is quite taxing and it is doubtful that Jeffrey could have done this on his own. However, they say that Jeffrey is still as suspect as he could have killed his wife in Boston or had an accomplice.
With the most obvious suspect cleared, investigators moved on to other lines of inquiry. They searched the surrounding areas hoping to find people who had seen Judy which is how the discovery of the woman in the gray car was made. Police also searched a nearby horse farm as Judy was known to like horses and had what could have been horse hair on her body, but nothing definitive was found.
Other information
Suspects
Gary Michael Hilton, sometimes called the national park killer, is a suspect in Judy's disappearance. In 2008 Hilton was arrested for a murder in a national forest and was later linked to three other murders, all of which took place between 2005 and 2008. Hilton, who was in his 50s and 60s at the time, killed hikers in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina and he is considered a suspect in many other murders in surrounding states such as Arkansas, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Hilton, who loved the outdoors, would often stalk hiking trails, camp sites, and other areas known for outdoor recreation to find victims to terrorize. His crimes were tended to be opportunistic and his motive most often was monetary. Hilton held down a series of jobs from 1997 to 2007 but did not work full time. He was also a drifter who moved from place to place. Hilton usually assaulted and robbed his victims of their wallets, atm cards, cash, and valuables. His victims were male and female, young and old. He seemed to prefer victims who were isolated and alone did not try to find a specific type of person otherwise. One thing that is interesting about Hilton as an offender is that it appears that he did not commit any violent crimes before he was 58 or 59 years old. Hilton has a very long rap sheet but most of his crimes were relatively minor such as possession of marijuana, carrying a pistol without a license, soliciting false donations for charity, carrying a police baton, and DUI. Once arrested several violent incidents that Hilton had been a part of came to light but he had never been convicted of them in the past. Most people agree someone with does not start a life of violent crime in their 60s. Many believe the Gary Michael Hilton has more victims then are currently known.
John and Irene Bryant, an eclectic couple in their 80s, were hiking in the Pisgah National Forest in 2007 when they were attacked by Hilton. Hilton killed Irene, and then kidnapped her husband in order to use their ATM cards and withdraw money before killing John as well. Irene's body was left only miles from where Judy's body was found 10 years earlier. This is one of the most convincing pieces of evidence that Hilton may have been involved in Judy's murder as well. However, it is important to note that Judy was not robbed and Hilton did not bury any of his known victims. Judy's murder also took place 10 years before any Hilton's other murders. Some blogs or more unofficial sources on the case mentioned that Hilton was believed to be in Georgia at the time of Judy's disappearance, but this isn't known for sure. If you are interested in learning more about the crimes of Gary Michael Hilton this reddit post is a really good place to start. This post did a good job of putting it all in one place so thank you u/lisagreenhouse.
Another offender who was in the Asheville area at the time of Judy's disappearance was a young man named Lewis Kyle Wilson. In the early 2000s Wilson was arrested after assaulting and robbing a sex worker he had brought home to his property. There's not a lot of information on Wilson online, but he was living in Asheville and would have been 19 at the time of Judy's disappearance. I cannot find any evidence that Wilson actually killed anyone but he does have a history of violence towards women and was in the area at the time so he is sometimes mentioned online as a possible suspect. One sex worker Wilson was known to frequent was the victim of an unsolved homicide that happened in 2006; Wilson is the prime suspect in that crime.
In 2016, only a couple of miles from Judy's burial site in the Pisgah National Forest, a lone hiker in her 60s was attacked, raped, and left tied to a tree. Thankfully, the woman was found alive and taken to the hospital. Some have wondered if this crime was connected to the Judy Smith homicide but there is no hard evidence of this and the rapist remains unknown.
Theories
Amnesia is one possible explanation for Judy’s disappearance. The family believes that Judy was injured or otherwise suffered a bout of dissociative amnesia which caused her to become confused or forget her identity. This is supported by the sightings of a confused or disoriented Judy in Philadelphia. The family believes this explains why Judy traveled to the Pisgah National Forest apparently of her own free will.
One theory is that Judy and Jeffrey had an argument that spurred an angry Judy to leave the area, whether she left from Boston or Philadelphia. After she left the area and traveled south to North Carolina, she met with foul play.
In a similar vein, some believed Judy willingly traveled to North Carolina to meet up with someone, perhaps a friend or a secret boyfriend. The ID incident at the airport was simply a cover so Judy could converse with this person who she wanted to meet. Once in North Carolina she met with foul play perhaps at the hand of the person she went to meet.
One theory Jeffrey explored was that Judy was suffering from mental illness and had a psychotic break. Being a lawyer, Jeffrey was able with some legal maneuvering to obtain all of Judy’s medical records from her adult life, including a physical she had had only months before hand. There was no indication that Judy had ever had any mental health concerns. Neither she or her doctors ever mentioned anything that would have pointed to any mental health problems, even minor ones such as anxiety. According to Jeffrey, Judy’s newest physical reported that Judy was in good mental and physical health (Lewis, 1997 and Trace Evidence Podcast).
Other sleuths have speculated that Judy traveled to North Carolina because she was questioning her sexuality. Asheville at the time was known for having an LGBT community. This theory is pushed forward by one interview on the Unsolved Mysteries segment as Judy’s friend says, “If you are looking for a mystery man, there wasn’t one.” Some have said that this implied that Judy had met a mystery woman, not a man. However, this theory is full of holes. No friends or family ever had any indication that Judy was questioning her sexuality. Judy had been married to men on three occasions and had other boyfriends as well. This explanation fails to explain why this realization would cause Judy to unexpectedly travel hundreds of miles and cease contact with her children. It also fails to explain who killed Judy.
Others have speculated that Judy was tricked into going to North Carolina. Perhaps she met someone while sightseeing who offered her a ride and that person abducted her or drove her to North Carolina for some reason.
Personally, I have always wondered if Judy was suffering from early onset dementia or Alzheimer’s disease. This would be a similar theory to the psychotic break theory; however, I believe this explains why Judy was described as both disoriented and acting normal in different sightings. I am by no means an expert, but if I understand correctly, patients with these conditions can get very confused and agitated but can also have times of acting completely lucid. I think this theory can explain why Judy forgot her license at home before flying, and can also explain her disappearance. I think it is possible Judy got on the wrong bus and ended up first at the Deptford mall and then eventually North Carolina, simply getting more and more lost each day. Of course, this hypothesis does not solve Judy’s murder, it simply gives an explanation for her travels.
A final theory that is prevalent online is the idea that the doe found in Pisgah National Forest was not Judy at all and was instead misidentified. While this is always possible and something I have entertained from time to time, Judy was matched via dental records, her arthritic knee, and her distinct engagement ring with a pear-shaped stone. If the doe was not Judy, then the mystery becomes even stranger, and now includes the identity and murder of yet another woman. While the odds of a similarly aged woman, with a bad knee, similar dental work, and a plain silver wedding band accompanied with a fancy diamond engagement ring, who was not Judy being murdered in the forest is possible, I believe that it is not very likely. Proponents of this theory point to the ME’s report that the doe had been in the forest for over a year, while Judy had been missing only five months at the time of her discovery.
TO BE CONTINUED...
Full list of sources are in part two- https://unsolved.com/gallery/judy-smith/
link to part 2 https://www.reddit.com/UnresolvedMysteries/comments/kky2l2/when_a_body_is_found_600_miles_away_extensive_two/
submitted by Quirky-Motor to UnresolvedMysteries [link] [comments]

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two-party checks; and so much more. With options like that, why would you go anywhere else for your check cashing services? Click Here to find a location near you. Getting your check cashed at Check into Cash is a quick, painless process that enables you to get your money quickly. It is safe, secure, and inclusive for all checks and, after cashing your check, you will receive a preferred check ... If you don’t have a bank account, then one of the easiest ways to cash a personal check is to visit the bank that issued the check. Compared to some options, visiting the issuing bank can be a cheaper and quicker option. Plus, certain banks have a higher cashing limit than some of the other options on this list. William Lipovsky Verified & Updated Nov 6, 2020 You can cash a two-party check at banks and credit unions, many check cashing stores, and some grocery stores. Checks that are made out to two parties can be a bit trickier to cash than those made out to just one person. Fred Meyer is found in the western USA, within the states of Idaho, Alaska, Oregon, and Washington. At any of their stores, clienteles are allowed to cash 2-party checks worth up to a maximum of $5,000.00 and the fee ranges from three to five US Dollars. A two-party check is a check that is addressed to two payees. Learn the important difference between "and" and "or" as well as how & where you can cash it. The issuing bank’s name is located in the bottom left corner of the check, above the memo line. Go to your local branch of that bank to cash the check. For instance, If the check is issued by BB&T Bank, you can visit the local BB&T branch. The teller can then check the account balance to make sure there are sufficient funds to cover the check. Convenient check cashing near you. When you need cash quickly, turn to ACE! Our convenient check cashing service doesn't require a bank account so you can get your cash without the hassle. We have longer service hours than banks and can cash most types of checks - even hard-to-cash checks that other companies won't handle.

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where can i cash a two party personal check near me

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