Get your picks tracked by the bot on the Daily Threads help here
Formatting here (using old reddit):
Country | Division | HomeTeam | AwayTeam | Prediction | Odds | Wager | Result | :--|:-- |:-- |:-- |:-- |:-- |:-- |:-- England | Premier League | Manchester United | Fulham | Over 1.5 H | 2.00 | 1 | Pending |
"Don't you ever fucking pray for me, you got that!?" It is said that every child born a man at one point in their lives has the goal of being the strongest in the world. Unfortunately most of those people either grow out of their dream or learn that it would be impossible to be the strongest. Baki Hanma though isn't most people, instead he goes around fighting the actual strongest people in the world and kicks their asses. Why does he do this? He wants to be stronger than his dad. Even if his father was the weakest person on the face of the earth he would be fine with just being the second weakest. Well tough titties for Baki because Baki's dad is so tough that he can literally make a woman's clothes fly off by staring at her. (NSFW obviously) You know the drill. Key for feats from different portions of the manga. Grappler Baki = [GB] New Grappler Baki = [NGB] Son of Ogre = [SOO] Baki Dou [BD] Baki Dou 2018 = [BD2] Feats performed by 13 year old baki will have the code [13YO] on them. All of those are performed in Grappler Baki though. Endurance feats that ultimately brought out Baki's demon back are bolded. Being the main character Baki scales to everyone here but Kaku Kaioh and Dorian.
Much like Papa Hanma Baki possesses the face of a demon on his back. Once Baki goes through enough physical trauma the face of a demon will show up on Baki's back. Along with rejuvenating him it will also boost his physicals by an unspecified but large degree.
Baki the Grappler is also the 6th longest running manga of all time, over 1200 chapters, 139 volumes, and still running to this day. Probably the most respectable thing about the manga. Also thanks to 76SUP for helping me with some formatting.
The limits of xG: is a couple of good chances better than ten bad ones?
Scenario 1: 2 teams of equal ability 2 teams of equal ability, both teams have an xG of 1.5 at the end of the game. Team B has lots 10 chances, each with an xG of 0.15. Team A has 3 chances, each with an xG of 0.5. Over thousands of games, they would each have a similar number of goals, but in an individual game, the spread is more important. Team B has a (1-0.15)10 = 19.7% chance of scoring 0 goals, Team A has a 0.53 = 12.5% chance of scoring 0 goals. But Team A can only ever score a maximum of 3 goals with their 3 chances, while Team B could potentially score 10 (although the chances are negligible). I made a python script (can pastebin if people are interested), and ran this scenario for 10k games, and the results were:
Result
Number
Team A wins
3836
Draw
2748
Team B wins
3416
This results in an average points-per-game of 1.42 for team A (with fewer good chances) and 1.30 for team B (with more bad chances) I set the xG to 3 with the same xG per shot, and the result was that both teams got more PPG (with fewer draws), but it increased for team B more than team A. As expected, lowering xG to 0.5 results in a significantly more draws, and lower PPG for both teams. But in all scenarios, the team with fewer, high quality chances does better than the team with more, poor quality chances Scenario 2: Team A > Team B Team A is reasonably better than Team B here. Say Team A has an xG of 2.0, and team B has xG of 0.5. How should team A set up to maximise their chance of winning? How should team B? When they both have xG per chance=0.5, we get the following:
Result
Number
Team A wins
8120
Draw
1588
Team B wins
292
That's 2.59 PPG for team A, and 0.24 PPG for team B Let's say team B sets up a low block, forcing team A to shoot from distance or try crosses. They limit team A to low-quality (xG per chance = 0.1) chances, but lots of them. Team A also limits team B to (xG per chance=0.1) chances.
Result
Number
Team A wins
7409
Draw
1849
Team B wins
744
This is a PPG of 2.407 for team A, and 0.408 for team B, almost doubling team B's average points. For completeness, if team A gets lots of 20 poor chances and team B gets one good one , with the same TeamA xG = 2.0, TeamB xG = 0.5
Result
Number
Team A wins
7406
Draw
1965
Team B wins
629
with a team A PPG of 2.418 and team B PPG of 0.385 Vice versa, with team A getting a 4 high quality chances and team B gets 5 poor ones, with the same TeamA xG = 2.0, TeamB xG = 0.5 we get
Result
Number
Team A wins
8014
Draw
1459
Team B wins
527
with a PPG of 2.55 for team A and 0.30 for team B. From these 4 scenarios, it is clear that when playing a better team, you should allow them plenty of poor chances rather than a few good ones, and it is better to have lots of poor chances yourself than a couple of good ones and accept that some of the time you'll get battered 5-0, but you'll nick a draw or a win more often. When playing a worse team, you should focus on creating good chances rather than lots of poor chances. You should also not care that much about allowing the occasional good chance through, as denying them lots of shots is more important Conclusion
Against teams of equal ability, you want high quality shots, and you want your opposition to have more poor shots
Against teams of worse quality, you want high quality shots, but you want your opposition to have a few high quality shots rather than more poor quality shots.
Against teams of better quality, you want to limit your opponent to lots of poor shots, and you want to have lots of poor shots yourself
All of these are about what you'd expect. It explains why the top teams play crazy high lines against poor teams (because they don't care that much about getting a couple of good chances against them, limiting the number of shots is more important). It explains why worse teams play a low block against better teams (stopping good chances is more important than stopping all shots), and why they shoot from distance rather than trying to get a good chance (number of shots is more important than quality). It also explains why Tottenham beat Man City last weekend (2 teams of comparable ability, Tottenham limited City to lots of rubbish shots, but had a couple of high-quality ones themselves). But it's not a scientific study and has clear and obvious limitations.
Teams don't get the same chance 10 times, they'll get a different xG on each shot. I did not take this into account
xG is variable game-to-game and the passes leading up to a shot are subject to the same stochasticity as the shot itself. This does not take that into account
If there is one thing I would like people to take out of this, it is that xG is not magic, and has limitations, and the next time you're in a match thread arguing that team A should have beaten team B because they had an xG of 1.75 compared to their opposition's 1.25, have a look at the number of shots, and maybe even look at the xG of individual shots to get a better idea. But also accept that sometimes freak results happen and the worse team gets a couple of lucky goals and wins, and it doesn't necessarily mean anything.
Sometimes the stars align, and everything just goes right—then there is 2020. After a year in which very little went right, perhaps it’s encouraging that Jupiter and Saturn moved into alignment late in December. Apparently, the conjunction between the two planets on Monday—also the Winter Solstice—was the closest in almost 800 years. But that’s not a key plank in our above-consensus call for the global and Canadian economy in 2021. We believe that there are many, more compelling, signposts that activity is coiling for a powerful rebound in the coming year after an incredibly challenging spell.
From Pandemic to Pandemonium?
The global economy is expected to rebound 5.5% in 2021, and then advance another 4.0% in 2022, after plunging 4.0% this year. To put those figures into some perspective, the prior worst recorded year in the post-war era had been a drop of ‘just’ 0.1% in 2009, while a typical year for the world economy in recent times would see growth something just a bit above 3%. A keen observer would note that even with our call of a strong rebound in the coming two years that the level of activity would still be well below its underlying trend by the end of 2022. Part of that shortfall reflects the simple fact that some of this year’s loss on spending in the service sector—such as on travel, entertainment, restaurants—may never be recouped.
The other part of the shortfall, though, may also suggest that even our relatively upbeat view on the next two years is actually understating the potential for growth to snap back. Insofar as vaccines are rolled out effectively, and there is a strong take-up, there is a case to be made that we are underestimating growth in the second half of next year and into 2022. Incredibly supportive fiscal and monetary policies, robust financial conditions (i.e., lofty asset prices), heavy-duty pent-up demand, and the build-up of excess household savings in many economies point to the possibility of a serious burst in spending later next year.
China serves as a clear example of how forcefully things can bounce back as conditions return to something approaching normality. Both retail sales and industrial production have carved out nearly a perfect V-shaped recovery in the world’s second largest economy. Famously, it will thus be one of the few nations to post any growth this year; some of the other lucky few will include Taiwan, Vietnam and Ireland. We look for China to build on this year’s constrained 2% rise with a robust 8% surge in 2021, before easing back to a more trend-like 5% in the following year. The three-year average growth rate of about 5% will pale only somewhat compared with the pre-virus trend of just over 6%. The sturdy rebound is a major reason why non-oil commodity prices—particularly base metals—have seen such a remarkably fast recovery even amid the deepest global downturn in decades.
One implication of the relatively robust recovery in commodity prices, as well as the deep dive in interest rates and strong financial markets, is that emerging markets held up relatively well overall. Despite a vicious drop in global GDP and the wild financial market turmoil in the spring, most emerging market economies avoided the worst. While there were some very specific cases of financial strains—Turkey—most were able to slash borrowing rates, capital flows resumed after a brief stall, and currencies began to recover as the U.S. dollar faded through the second half of the year. This is not to minimize the severe challenges many emerging economies face, especially those heavily reliant on tourism. But, the resiliency of the developing world and a crisis averted on this front is a case of the dog that didn’t bark.
In the advanced economies, sectors that were able to reopen did see a rapid V-shaped recovery in Q3 from the spring shutdowns, and that provides comfort for the call for strong gains in 2021. However, large portions of the economy have still been left behind, and the furious second wave has seen broadening and deepening restrictions across much of the OECD more recently. Amid the patchwork of varying measures, it’s incredibly difficult to assess the economic damage from the second-wave containment steps. It appears that financial markets are all but ignoring the mounting bad news and focusing on the post-vaccine world. But that doesn’t get around the fact that we are about to face a wave of tough economic statistics in coming weeks, most likely including an outright drop in European GDP in Q4, and a near-miss in other economies.
The Euro Area and the U.K. are going to report some of the biggest economic declines in the world for 2020, owing to both their especially challenging experience with the virus but also due to a heavy reliance on the service sector (notably tourism). The flip-side is that these economies may also be poised for the biggest snapbacks. After a near-7% drop in the Euro Area, we look for a 5.5% rebound in the coming year, and then a 3% advance in 2022. The U.K. was hit even harder with a massive 10.5% setback this year, with Brexit uncertainty weighing on top of everything else. With a trade deal with the EU hanging in the balance, a partial recovery is still likely in 2021. (On a technical note, the dive in U.K. GDP appears to be exaggerated by an unusually large reported drop in government spending, which may also set the stage for an unusually big rebound in 2021.)
Elsewhere, Japan saw a somewhat lighter hit than other major developed economies with a drop of just over 5% this year—everything is relative—even though it entered the year already in recession after 2019's sales tax hike. Given that nation’s weak underlying growth and a milder setback in 2020, we expect a more modest 3.5% recovery in 2021, even with the delayed Tokyo Olympics. Australia also was relatively less hard-hit, despite the massive wildfires at the start of the year, a one-sided trade fight with China, and a strong lockdown in Victoria. While the RBA is trying to hold it back, the Australian dollar is now up more than 10% from a year ago and not far from parity with the loonie at around 76 cents(US).
When the final numbers are in for 2020, one truly unusual development (among the many) is that the U.S. economy is likely to print one of the smallest declines in the advanced world. We have chopped this wood before, but the short story is that the U.S. benefited from some of the strongest policy medicine in the world as well as its outsized tech sector. However, we also have to point out that restrictions were relatively light in the U.S. compared to others—even now, with some of the highest virus caseloads in the world on a per capita basis—and thus the direct economic hit was lighter. As the year draws to a close, the new round of fiscal support of $900 billion (or a hefty 4% of GDP), including direct payments of $600 per individual, awaits the President's support. If enacted in a timely fashion, this could add to our upgraded call of 4.5% GDP growth for next year; we have also bumped up our 2022 call by half a point to 3.5%. Yes, one could say that the vaccine has moved the needle on growth, pardon the awful pun.
We have also tweaked our call on Canadian growth over the next two years. However, unlike the U.S., this revision is not one-sided to the high side. Full disclosure, we have been relentlessly on the high side of consensus for more than six months now, and remain there even with these revisions. Still, the deepening restriction measures in Canada, with the clear prospect of more in coming weeks—including new school closures in some provinces—have prompted us to trim our Q1 call to close to zero. Even with a stronger second-half rebound, courtesy of the vaccine (first injection just this week in Canada as well), this will clip the full-year estimate for GDP growth by half a point to 5.0%. But, at the same time, we are also lifting the view on 2022 on the upbeat vaccine developments by half a point to a sturdy 4.5%, leaving activity at the same spot as we had expected before by the end of that year. While we have trimmed our 2021 call, note that the risks appear evenly balanced; that is, there is still some serious upside risk to this forecast, and the recent strength in commodity prices, and financial markets in general, are certainly pointing in that direction.
Beyond the growth outlook, of course there are many, many other economic issues and concerns swirling in this tumultuous environment, which are mostly covered in the following Thoughts. But one pressing question we have fielded almost since the first days of the pandemic response is whether there is a risk that inflation could return amid the tidal wave of stimulus. These concerns may well grow louder in the coming year, especially if growth comes close to the upside possibilities. And the Fed has essentially told us that they will tolerate a bout of above-target inflation. As if on cue, Canada printed a high-side surprise for CPI of 1.0% y/y in November, and the spurt in oil to $49 points to further headline pressure. But also note that Japan, China and the Euro Area are all still posting outright declines in headline prices, while core inflation is effectively stuck in neutral in North America. Ultimately, while the tail risks for inflation have fattened, we believe that even in a world of a potentially rapid recovery, overwhelming slack in many sectors, and an overhang of unemployment for years, any burst in headline inflation will simply not be sustained.
U.S. Economy: Cheers to a Healthier Year
Following the worst year since 1946, the U.S. economy can only do better in 2021: the question is how much better? With the pandemic raging and Congress wrangling, the new year is likely to come in like a lamb, but it should go out like a lion as mass inoculations pave a return to near-normalcy.
With a second wave of the coronavirus now topping the first in daily caseloads and fatalities, more states are curbing business activity; mostly indoor dining, bars, gyms and some close-contact services. While the constraints are a pale imitation of the spring shutdowns—when factories and schools were shuttered—they could still cause the recovery to grind to a halt for a few months. Thankfully, Congress has passed another stimulus bill of around $900 billion that will extend support programs for the unemployed, assistance to small businesses, and moratoriums on tenant evictions. Though pending sign-off by the President, the bill will avert the loss of extended UI benefits for more than 12 million Americans, which would have sliced annual personal income growth by roughly 4 ppts in Q1. Instead, incomes will enjoy a nice pop from $600 rebates, allowing spending to avoid starting the new year like the last one, in a deep hole that it needs to climb out of.
Once we get past the turn of the year the COVID clouds will begin to part. The vaccine rollout will gradually put an end to the restrictions on activity, while slowly unleashing a year’s worth of pent-up demand for travel, indoor dining, and entertainment. The willingness to spend will be matched only by the ability to shop, as a mountain of excess savings (estimated at over 6% of annual GDP) has accrued during the pandemic. At the same time, rising equity and home values are padding household wealth, another source of spending. Low interest rates will support mortgage refinancings and household borrowing, driving a 5%-plus rebound in consumer spending in 2021. While home sales are likely to slip from recent 14-year highs, the housing market should remain strong. Home prices should keep rising and residential construction will stay firm amid the tightest resale markets on record and a potential upturn in immigration under a Biden presidency.
Powered by the need to expand digital platforms for customers and workers, business spending has rebounded sharply, and will receive an extra lift in 2021 from rising commercial structures beyond the already-ample need for industrial and warehouse space. Multi-family housing in major cities will get relief from easing pandemic anxiety, allaying recent downward pressure on rents, notably in San Francisco and New York. But don’t expect office construction to return to pre-virus levels, as a partial shift toward remote work will reduce long-term demand. Some office buildings will need to be repurposed along multi-channel lines for working, living, and shopping including online fulfilment. Slower to return will be bricks-and-mortar retail, as millions of converts have taken the online route during the pandemic—e-commerce generated 14.3% of U.S. retail sales in the third quarter, up 3 ppts from late last year.
The economy is expected to grow 4.5% in 2021, the best year since the 1999 tech boom. The jobless rate should fall from 6.7% currently to 5.3% by year-end, though it could take until 2023 to fully recover the initial 22 million plunge in payrolls. The range of uncertainty around our forecast remains wide. Major downside risks include possible glitches in the vaccine rollout, an adverse mutation of the virus, and the unwinding of fiscal support in the spring. One threat we probably won’t need to worry about is a spike in inflation (and interest rates), given the dynamic duo of lofty unemployment and advanced automation. More likely is a correction in asset prices if they run too far ahead of fundamentals. Unlike in 2020, however, there’s also substantial upside for the economy. A smoother rollout of vaccines could lead to early herd immunity. As well, consumers could simply “let loose” after spending a year in COVID prison. A Democrat sweep of the two Senate runoff seats on January 5 would also usher in more fiscal stimulus and a wave of new spending on infrastructure, education, housing, child care and the environment, with some offset from higher corporate income taxes and tighter regulations. The only certainty about the coming year is that it won’t be boring—though we could stand for much less excitement than the past year.
Fed Policy and U.S. Rates Outlook
We look for the Federal Reserve to remain steadfast as 2021 unfolds, maintaining a policy bias to increase accommodation further if necessary, particularly during the first third of the year as surging COVID-19 cases and consequent increases in business and social restrictions weigh on economic growth.
On December 16, the FOMC repeated that it would maintain the 0%-to-0.25% fed funds target range “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time”. But, it committed more concretely to “continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals”, compared to the prior looser commitment to purchasing “over coming months… at least at the current pace”.
This more accommodative policy step was not as big as it could have been (e.g., increasing the pace and/or weighted-average-maturity of purchases), likely reflecting the FOMC’s upgraded medium-term economic outlook (thank you, vaccines) and anticipation of more accommodative fiscal policy.
Congress passed the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 on December 21, but, at the time of writing, it was uncertain whether President Trump would sign it. The omnibus bill includes the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and other pandemic-related measures. Weighing in at 4.3% of nominal GDP, the $900 billion relief package will go a long way in helping the U.S. economy ride out COVID’s winter wave. The largest components include $284 billion to reopen the Paycheck Protection Program, $166 billion for a second round of direct payments to individuals and families, and $120 billion to extend enhanced unemployment benefits (through March and April).
In the Summary of Economic Projections, the ‘dot plot’ showed only 5 of 17 participants pencilling in a rate hike by the end of 2023, just one more than in September despite the upgraded medium-term economic outlook. For 2021-22, real GDP growth is 0.2 ppts higher with the jobless rate 0.4-to-0.5 ppts lower, and the CBO-defined output gap closes by 2022-end instead of after 2023. However, the top of the central tendency range of inflation projections only gets above 2.0% (to 2.1%) in 2023, far from the criterion to “moderately exceed 2 percent for some time”.
Our other working assumption is that the Fed won’t tighten until early 2024, with the net risk weighing on the side of sooner action. With policy rates remaining at their effective lower bound at least until 2023, the front-end of the yield curve should remain restrained apart from what separate demand and supply pressures might materialize in the bond market, pressures that matter more for the back-end of the curve. Big budget deficits are projected to persist, keeping Treasury supply pressure on the boil. Meanwhile, investor risk appetites should be whetted as the rollout of vaccines brightens economic prospects and the attraction of riskier asset classes. Not helping this pending imbalance, beyond the next 12 months, we expect the Fed to start tapering purchases and to have stopped growing its balance sheet within the next 24 months.
However, any prospective increases in longer-term bond yields should be well-checked by policy rates remaining ‘low for long’, and inflation pressures remaining well-contained by economic slack (at least for a couple of years) along with the secular forces of disinflation from technological change (a trend accelerated by the pandemic) and an aging population. For example, we look for 10-year Treasury yields to average around 1.25% by the end of 2021.
Finally, after averaging record highs in April 2020, at the peak of pandemic panic, the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index has slipped about 9.0% reflecting several factors including improving investor-perceived global economic prospects and ebbing risks; U.S. policymakers being relatively aggressive on both the QE and budget deficit fronts; and, the pandemic hitting the U.S. relatively hard. The former factor, particularly, looks to weigh on the greenback further as the distribution of vaccines unfolds globally, weakening the unit another near-3% by the end of 2021.
Canada Rates Preview: Headed Higher
This past year will be remembered as challenging for one and all. The pandemic drove the Bank of Canada into unprecedented territory, with unconventional measures unleashed for the first time, in addition to bringing the policy rate to the effective lower bound. The coming year is expected to be far more subdued on the monetary policy front, with fiscal policy continuing to surge forward.
The Bank of Canada’s task for 2021 will be to ensure that financial conditions don’t tighten prematurely. Our base case is for policy rates to hold steady at 25 bps throughout the year. Rate hikes are off the table, though further easing is possible but would take a deterioration in the outlook (think vaccine issues or something like that). Potential easing measures are more QE, yield curve control, a funding-for-lending scheme and a micro rate cut.
On the QE front, the BoC is going to have to thread the needle with messaging. They already managed to taper once while keeping markets calm. They’ll have to manage that feat again in 2021. We anticipate a modest further tapering, driven entirely by a falling issuance profile for the federal government. The BoC doesn’t want to have too large a footprint, so a pullback once the issuance numbers are finalized is a logical step. In an effort to dampen the market impact, the Bank could again push its purchases further out the curve to minimize the reduction in overall stimulus. This is likely a Q2 story, since the budget usually isn’t released until late March or early April.
Beyond rates and QE, the Bank will also have to manage its forward guidance. January will already be a challenge with the vaccine timeline far more optimistic than they assumed in the October MPR. However, the increasing breadth of COVID restrictions put in place in recent weeks suggests there’s some notable downside to Q1. Even if Q4 is a bit better than the BoC projected, a weak Q1 could be enough to keep the timing of the output gap closing in 2023. Indeed, as noted above, the Bank does not want to prematurely tighten financial conditions, so they’ll likely try to stick with the 2023 forward guidance as timing for rates liftoff for as long as possible.
Finally, the BoC will renew its inflation targeting agreement with the Government of Canada in the coming year. While changes are possible, a mildly modified version of the status quo seems like the most likely outcome at the moment. A small potential tweak might be a greater focus on the 1%-to-3% target band rather than the 2% mid-point. That would provide a bit more policy flexibility, though their current flexible inflation target regime arguably already provides similar room to navigate. Note that Deputy Governor Beaudry’s recent speech hinted in that direction; “But rest assured we will not overuse QE and overshoot our 1 to 3 percent target range for inflation. The exit strategy for our QE program is tied to our inflation goals.”
Looking at the Canada curve, our call for policy rates to stay at the lower bound as the economy continues to recover points to ongoing steepening pressure. While longer-term rates look to rise, we still only have 10-year Canadas at 1.10% at the end of 2021. As we approach the latter stages of the year, steepening pressure could subside a bit as rate hikes potentially start coming into view.
For the loonie, it was a wild 2020 getting absolutely hammered at the height of the crisis, before fully recovering, and then some, to end the year at the strongest in over two years. We’re looking for 2021 to be a bit more subdued with modest strength through the course of the year. An ongoing recovery in the global economy is expected to lift commodity prices, supporting the loonie’s advance. The bigger story on the FX front is the anticipated US$ weakness, which will be tough for any currency to offset.
Canadian Regional Economic and Fiscal Outlook
All Canadian provinces have been hit by the pandemic, forcing some degree of economic disruption and digging fiscal holes of various depth. That said, Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec are clearly facing more stringent containment measures as 2020 winds down, which will weigh on 2021 calendar growth figures. All of these provinces are expected to lag the 5.0% national average, even as they presumably start to see better sequential growth prints toward the end of 2021Q1. With most regions of Ontario also facing some degree of containment, the province will also struggle to outperform; although it is arguably among the best-positioned for a strong recovery later in the year. Atlantic Canada was relatively insulated in 2020, and should see more subdued growth numbers in 2021 as a result, while British Columbia continues to look like an outperformer. Aside from COVID, the regional landscape will also be shaped by subdued energy-sector activity (although late-2020 price action is supportive of industry cash flow), a limited return of travel and tourism, and a continued lull in population flows that had been very supportive (especially in smaller provinces) in recent years.
Housing will remain in focus, as usual, but more so because of the roaring finish to 2020. Sales activity is expected to cool nationally, but prices should remain supported by improving confidence, still-tight supply and record-low interest rates. We expect the MLS HPI to rise 7% in 2021 with the first half of the year still characterized by outsized strength in single-detached homes, especially in smaller markets, partly offset by sluggish condo prices. Whether or not that rotation persists after the vaccine is widely administered is probably a question for the 2022 outlook, but we suspect core urban markets will ultimately find a solid footing again after further underperformance in the meantime. At the same time, more supply and outflows of nonpermanent residents could apply some pressure to urban rents in 2021.
The 2021 provincialfiscal outlook is still highly uncertain given that this year’s starting point for deficit levels is likely subject to meaningful revision. That said, the provinces that have issued FY21/22 guidance are pointing to deficit reductions somewhere in the order of one-third of FY20/21 levels, on average. That amount of consolidation would suggest the combined provincial deficit narrows to around $60 billion from about $93 billion this fiscal year. To be sure, the provinces will remain historically active borrowers and—depending on how much pre-financing takes place before FY20/21 closes—total requirements could top $140 billion, versus this year’s $171 billion pace. While the provincial deficit should be a still-chunky 2.5% of GDP, keep in mind that the federal government will continue to carry the vast majority of the fiscal load, with Ottawa’s deficit likely around $150 billion, or more than 6% of GDP. The big focus will be on how $70-to-$100 billion of yet-to-be-used stimulus spending gets allocated, and if any fiscal anchor re-emerges.
A Year of Global Healing
This is one year that everyone will look forward to with far more anticipation than ever before. The hope is that, in 2021, we can put the pandemic behind us and maybe, just maybe, remove the mask and indulge in a gathering with friends and family. That time will happen at some point and it won’t come soon enough. Look for solid economic rebounds after being crushed in 2020.
Europe was among the first hammered by the coronavirus and it spent most of 2020 protecting the economy. The ECB created a massive bond buying program to keep interest rates low and special facilities that allowed banks to borrow from the central bank at favourable terms on the condition that credit would keep flowing. And EU leaders managed, eventually, to agree on a €1.07 trln long-term budget and a €750 bln EU Recovery Fund, or the Next Generation EU, made up of grants and loans to those countries whose economies took the biggest hit from the lockdowns. That agreement did not come easily but at least there was a rare display of solidarity when it was badly needed. The funds will help Italy, France and Spain, for example, pick up the pieces of their economies and move forward. And as the virus is eventually brought under control, governments will roll out programs to help their fragile economies heal. But there will be a time when the crisis is over that the fiscal hawks will demand evidence from those who received Recovery Fund grants that spending is being reined in. That will be a late 2021/early 2022 story. Next year will also see a rebuilding of relationships between the U.S. and the EU, and perhaps a fresh start on trade issues such as the global digital tax and the long-running Airbus/Boeing dispute. On the political front, Germany’s federal elections will be key. A new head of the ruling CDU will be elected and that person will eventually replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor. Recall she declared in December 2018 that she would not run again at the next federal election after her party’s poor showings during that year’s state elections. It would be interesting to see how Merkel would fare today after her strong leadership during the pandemic, with the latest lockdowns notwithstanding. In any event, a new leader will be named by year-end.
The United Kingdom will begin 2021 with a fresh start on trade and will freely negotiate trade agreements on its own. As soon as January begins, the EU’s Common External Tariff will be replaced with the U.K. Global Tariff, which will apply to imported goods from countries without an existing trade agreement. Currently, the U.K. only has agreements in place with Japan and Switzerland; interim ones with Canada, Mexico and the U.S.; and, a fisheries deal with Norway. Talks are underway with Australia. And, negotiations with the U.S. will restart on a more positive note now that the British government removed the illegal clauses embedded within the Internal Market Bill. However, PM Johnson’s promise that Britain will be more prosperous outside the EU will likely not be realized in 2021 if a trade arrangement is not made with its biggest trading partner. The economy will likely feel the impact of supply disruptions (borders no longer freely open) and higher prices (tariffs now in place), which will hurt confidence and spending. It already had a taste of it after a number of European countries blocked borders and travel with the U.K. as the new strain of the virus spread in December.
Faster, higher, stronger. Yes, Japan is going to give the Summer Olympics another go, with the Games scheduled to run from July 23 to August 8. PM Suga is “determined” to host the Games, and all efforts will be made to have spectators at the events. If the Games are successful, they would bolster his chances of winning a full-term as LDP leader during the party’s September 2021 election.
China was likely one of only a few major economies to grow in 2020, as its early-year hit from the coronavirus gave it more time to recover. That, and the fact that its economy is still focused on goods production and less so on services, benefited GDP during this tumultuous year. Still, the estimated 2% increase would be the slowest in nearly half a century; now, we look for an 8% advance in 2021, even with a stronger yuan. On the foreign relations front, how President Xi gets along with President-elect Biden will be closely watched. Trade relations between China and the U.S., as well as the EU, should be less volatile, but even with the new occupant of the Oval Office, they will take time to warm up. Look for China to focus on trade elsewhere, particularly in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the massive trade agreement between a dozen countries that was signed in November.
Crude Oil Outlook: Tough Road Still Ahead
West Texas Intermediate crude is heading into the new year with plenty of wind behind its back. Thus, it would not be surprising to see WTI cross the $50/bbl threshold, at least temporarily, in the weeks ahead; especially if the rollout of vaccines accelerates and/or the pace of new COVID-19 caseloads markedly decelerates. Looking back, the current price of crude would have appeared almost inconceivable after prices plummeted into negative territory in April.
However, it is not all clear skies ahead for black gold as its supply and demand dynamics remain challenging. This explains why OPEC+, rather wisely, chose to scale down its production target cut by 0.5 mb/d to 7.2 mb/d in January and limit future cuts to no more than 0.5 mb/d per month. OPEC+’s new strategy should help prevent a large market imbalance (i.e., excess crude oil inventories) from building even if demand falters. Indeed, the near-term recovery in global oil demand, which is still roughly 7 mb/d below its pre-pandemic level, has already proven to be bumpy given that a number of countries are in the midst of a second wave of COVID-19 cases and economic lockdowns.
There is also a growing risk that non-OPEC+ supply could begin to escalate. This has been highlighted by the sudden surge in Libyan crude output to around 1.25 mb/d from zero in recent months. A wave of Iranian production could re-enter the market if President-elect Biden were to ease or eliminate sanctions. But the bigger wildcard actually lies closer to home, south of the 49th parallel. As WTI approaches $50, it raises the possibility that recently shut-in shale oil production could be restarted.
As the recovery in both supply and demand is likely to ebb and flow, much will depend on OPEC+’s commitment to balance the oil market. The arduous negotiation over revising the production target in early December revealed deeper divisions within OPEC+ than previously thought and suggests the risk of the cartel breaking down cannot be completely discounted. Furthermore, the spectre of monthly meetings to negotiate production targets could exacerbate the volatility of crude oil prices next year, compared to relative stability in recent months.
Key Takeaway: The prospect for WTI to head much higher will be difficult, especially following this past year’s rather remarkable rebound. That said, we have nudged our forecast for WTI to average $47 in 2021 (previously $45) and have penciled in $50 for 2022.
let's get this on chaps! you are all allowed to suggest picks we then vote as a sub. The pick with the most votes is the one we go for. edit: I'll make the cut off at about 5pm UK time. EDIT2: winning pick is WOLVERHAMPTON TO WIN @1.95 10 returns 19.50
Behold! An update idea that will knock your socks clean off! It will launch during the summer and all of it's special events will end at the beginning of Autumn. The GW3 this is based off of u/Angry_Memist 's "Potential for GW3" post so check that out if you please.
'Tack O' the Titans!
or Attack of the Titans if you're a nerd. The 'Tack O' the Titans update (or TOTT as I will refer to it as) is an update which includes 1 new PVE map, 3 new "tiny" maps (for gnome bomb and such), 3 NEW TURF MAPS, 2 new characters, a Grand Prize map/Warfare Pass sporting 9 skins, 3 legendary hats and 5 variants, and finally 5 new boss hunts.
The PVE
The brand new PVE region, Turbo Tourist Trapper, is available for both plants and zombies. The map is larger than all of the previous PVE regions, but it still sports 3 areas, being Giddy park SURPLUS, Sacred Sewers, and Zomboss Battle station. The bosses are The Sunflower Elder and The Zombossing Bruiser. The goal for the zombies is to go deep into the sewers, find the sunflower elder and defeat her guardians to be able to harness her powers and steal all THE EARTH'S SUN! MWAHAHA! CRO TE CRA-AH TO CRAAAYYY! Anyways, the plant's mission is to stop the zombies from using the Zomboss battle station to control neighborvillians and plants alike!
3 Teensy Maps
The 2 tiny maps are Fundupiter Land, Sewer slide, and Brain Fryer Arena. "An ancient Gnomish curse was placed on the land Giddy park Surplus was built on. The curse was never intended to be a curse, kinda, but it was meant to be a holding cell for one of the First Gnome's creations, Gronzo the Gnomish Horror. The sheer giddiness of Giddy park Surplus eased the cell's bindings on the menace known as Gronzo, so now, every eclipse Gronzo is freed from his prison and transforms the park into Fundupiter land."- Tony Bologna, 2020. Sewer slide takes place as the plants infiltrate the sewers to save The Sunflower Elder from the zombies decaying clutches, unfortunately they've hit a strong resistance of zombies and have to clear em' out. The Brain Fryer Arena is a special lil' map that occasionally have the plants fight each other due to a surge of patented Brain Bringer Waves "Need brains but don't wanna get off your bloated rear end and get some yourself, you spoiled block head? Then Brain Bringer Waves are for you!". The story is the plants have infiltrated Zomboss Battle Station and have accidentally fallen into a trap. The Zombies are so over confident that they usually watch plants fight each other. In order to give the plants an incentive to betray their friends, the plants who score the most kills get heaping piles of moolah!
Turf Takeover Maps
New Turf Takeover maps include Fundupidest Land, Super Sewers, and The Controlling Control Center. FUNDUPIDEST LAND The Fundupiter land was merely my FIRST FORM! Fundupidest land is taking place while the eclipse is at peak power. The land is completely transformed into some kind of edgy goth clown place with ragdoll people as workers (idk man just don't kill Gronzo's vibe) Hey! one thing before I forget, On the 1st, 2nd, and 4th point you can play as any plant or zombie without having to pick a side, as the plant's and zombies are working together. The gnome's are like prison guards and therefore are defending on this map. The first point takes place at night on the beach with a rocky terrain to shield the gnomes and give plants and zombies cover. The second point takes us to the front entrance where the wonderful crew members of Fundupidest land are here to greet us. Only 2 spawn at first, but if they vanquish you another one spawns, there is a maximum of ten ragdolls possible. You can vanquish them but they have the health of an unshielded dreadroot. On point three A BRAND NEW THING HAPPENS! A maximum free for all with zombies against zombies and plants against plants outbreaks and brand new announcers take the place of Zomboss and Major Sweety (see "weird notes and such" and "base GW3"). They are Nutz and Boltz (Two acorns that will commentate the free for all) and Benson and Bentley (two imps that will commentate the free for all). All ya have to do is score a lot of kills, ok? Winner of the free 4 all wins 250 extra Brains/Starfuit/Prize bulbs. What a hefty sum! On point 4 you're in a big top circus tent and everything is back to normal and you're fighting more gnomes and capping the point, the ragdolls are back but nowhere near as annoying. Uh oh, it's point 5, the final point and GUESS WHO? That's right Gronzo is here to tell you- wait. Why are Major Sweety and Zomboss feverishly telling us to defend Gronzo? Pshht, doesn't matter, just keep attacking the gnomes and... worshipping Gronzo? Hol' up, that doesn't seem right. This might have to do with those puppets mirroring Zomboss and Major Sweety's movements while Gronzo controls them. Whatever, orders are orders, but you know what would be a real crying shame? If some, I don't know, gnomes as an example, destroyed the puppets. Like, maybe Major Sweety and Zomboss will stop being weird, but I don't know I'm just thinkin' out loud. If plants and zombies win, the gnomes are destroyed and Gronzo escapes, allowing you to chase him down and beat him up in a boss hunt, if you lose however, Gronzo is recontained, the gnomes banish you from their lands, and no boss hunt for you. SUPER SEWERS "Hmm, awfully muggy down 'ere. Don't see what the zombies would want from this place but 'ey, the ma'am demands it so I ain't complainin'". Point 1 is very dangerous. The plants have to drop from an open manhole cover onto a giant pipe while zombies rain hell on em' from all angles. The best way to break the siege is with citron shields and sprinting. Point 2 is far more safe than the first one. This map is payload based so all you have to do is guide your payload through twisting and narrow pipes until you get to the 3rd point. Point 3 WEE-OOO WEE-OOO it's that time again! More free for all through a big open room with multiple levels and big twisting pipes to get higher and lower! This time you have to be the first to the top of the room before the water rises and drowns you. you are rewarded the same thing. Once you get to the top the water clears out and you may proceed to point 4. Point 4 is usually a break from the free for all so you can catch your breath before point 5, so it's never too eventful, this time the point is underwater, so you can jump a lot more times, no need to worry about air though. Point 5 is where you'll find THE POWER CORE! A hole menagerie of mechanized moving bits are constructing the ANTI-BLOOM! A devastating Zombot that harnesses the power of the sun's core to annihilate just about anything it sees. Take the sucker out by destroying signal carriers (randomly selected members of the zombie team) and blasting the bolted behemoth to bits with a tactical cob cannon (your payload) careful though, the zombies are given mechs to defend signal carriers and the ANTI-BLOOM. Once the ANTI-BLOOM is destroyed, return the heart of The Sunflower Elder to its rightful owner and watch as the zombies get a beat down that has never been seen before. upon winning, you get to chase down that rascally Elder as the zombies in a boss hunt. If you fail however, the ANTI-BLOOM enacts protocol Sun Saver. Restricting sunflowers from doing any healing or attacking. The ANTI-BLOOM shrivels the plants up into sad, tiny excuses for rivals and then laughs with the rest of the zombies about how tiny that Grandmaster 5 chomper is. THE CONTROLLING CONTROL CENTER Uh oh, looks like the zombies got a little too cocky and now the plant's have to defend the main core of the Zomboss Battle Station from the zombies while the plants try to blow the thing up. The first point happens in the boiler room, zombies are trying to take the furnace room so they can burn and heat the plants out of the Station but unfortunately the plants had already sabotaged the "Roaring Magma" option on the furnace, bah, oh well it's fine. On point 2 the zombies move onto the office rooms where all they find are a coupla staple guns and a patented Zomboss shredder, oh and a good number of plants that were defending. I hope you're ready 'cuz it's FREE 4 AAAAAALLLLLLLLLLL this time it's a classic game of hot potato, except there's 4 hot potatoes and the potatoes are BOMBS! This all takes place in the cafeteria, where there's plenty of space to run around and blow up! Winning gives you the same pieces of junk. Anyways, onto point 4,this time we've gotta push a homemade bootering ram in order to bust down the doors of the main core room and get in. OH SHOOT! Just in time! The plants haven't detonated the grape shots yet! All we have to d- i- uhm Zomboss, the main core just grew wings and flew away. Wait, that's part of the plan? That's actua- Dingus? Did you just call me a Dingus? Ow, my feelings. Alright, Alright I'll get in the plane and chase it down! No need to be so mean about i- NOTHING! I SAID NOTHING! Jeez Louise I can't breath around here without getting hounded. Anyways what you're SUPPOSED to do is hop in a plane and engage in dogfights while your teammates try to escort the main core to a brand new landing site while the plant team also hops in planes and tries to stop you. If you win WOOHOO! You've got yourself brains that are begging to be eaten and brand new plant servants, you rockstar! Now you can go ahead and actually blow up the Zombossing Bruiser in your brand new boss hunt! If you lose, you kinda go kablewie, and that ain't very fun.
New Characters
You got 2 new characters, Toxic Bomber and Berry Brigade (read "weird notes and such" and "base GW3"). Berry Brigade is the same as he is in u/Angry_Memist 's post "Potential for GW3" (read it, you gnard) but since toxic bomber isn't in his post, I've gotta formulate somethin' TOXIC BOMBER He's meant to absolutely tear up defences and keep points on lock with his minion spawning barrels and sticky bombs. He suffers horribly at close range though Primary: fire manually detonating sticky bombs, that take 0.5 seconds to detonate and leave a toxic cloud when exploded Ability 1: Place down a toxic barrel that summons lil' toxic imps, simply place your crosshair on one and it and many more will go KA-BEEEEWWWWWM. Ability 2: Sludge ball starts out small, but grows bigger as it rolls farther. It picks up plants and sends them rolling with it, the more plants on the ball the more damage it does. Eventually it does explode and sends plants flying Ability 3: Sends out a tiny drone that moves super fast and stuns plants, when it does come back to Toxic Bomber, he can see through walls for 30 seconds. Ability 4: Swap to super strong rapid fire pipe bombs for 10 seconds, getting a kill increases the time by 5 seconds
The Grand Prize map
This baby can fit so many puppies its unbelievable
BOSS HUNT!
The boss hunt gamemode is supposed to be better than the GW2 one and have bosses far more similar to BFN's, less team based gameplay (T H E C A N D Y I S S O U R), Far superior rewards, custom arenas, and less open arenas. The new boss hunt bosses are Titanicus (p&z), Clapper (p&z), Gronzo the Gnomish Horror (p&z), The Sunflower Elder (z), and The Zombossing Bruiser (p) These bosses are considered titans, hence the name of the update. I might attempt to give these boss hunts full descriptions, and maybe even post some drawings of their looks' and arenas BUT NO PROMISES. I'm bad at those.
Weird Notes and Such
Between the events of PvZ BfN and GW3, Crazy Dave was labeled a communist by Major Sweety's political party and has mysteriously disappeared. Ever since, Major Sweety was chancellor but through a strange turn of events became the supreme leader of the plants
I've decided to make Berry Blast a TOTT character because berries and summer are BERRY FUNNY
NO ONE REPLACES HIM, SCREW YOU (hmm, maybe someone)
Sorry, anyways have you read u/Angry_Memist 's "Potential for GW3" post yet?
Titanicus is a big ol' octopus, silly.
Clapper is a larger Megalodon, with a cute face.
Hey, I dunno what to put here so uh, how's your day? I haven't been on the internet in a while, I took a break because I use Reddit as my main social media platform.
Hey! This post's pretty long, so I thought I'd congratulate you with a silly lil' Spongebob track. Here ya go pal!
Has anyone ever told you how good the spongebob track is? My personal favorites are Sponge Monger, Grass Skirt Chase, Twelfth Street Rag, Gator, Hawaiian Cocktail, and Honolulu March.
Actually, I think a snippit of Honolulu march should play with the opening tunes of turf takeover matches. Honolulu march for Super Sewers, Sponge Monger for Fundupidest land, and Gator for The Controlling Control Center
Base GW3
The icons for announcers have been bouncing back and forth a lot, from 2D still, to 3D animated, back to 2D still, so the ones for my GW3 will be 2D animated, to capture the best of both worlds, The easier-to-look-at-ness of 2D and the Liveliness of animation.
Several Gamemodes have been changed a tad to match up with the story of u/Angry_Memist 's post, also they're changed to hopefully shake things up a bit
The base boss hunts that come with the game already are all of the GW2 boss hunts, the BfN PVE bosses, and new ones such as Admiral Shroom, That One Scrapped Robo-Crab, Zombot Classic, and Chili Bean Boss
Ackshewally, I think the replacement for default berry brigade should be Z O Y B E A N.
Read the post u/JTheCreator830 made asking for new plant classes. Or just click on my name and look around in my account.
Forgot to mention about starfruit and brainz. They're part of a Rux overhaul, for now all they do is replace rainbow stars and are exclusive to each team
Welp, that's about it. Feel free to speculate why all this crazy stuff is happening in the replies. Oh, and if you're wondering why Z O Y B E A N is the new default class and not Beta Carrotina well that's because I'VE GOT A PLOT SIMMERING IN MY GREAT CRIMINAL BRAIN!
Titanicus
Howdy doody, Here's a new edit for the update TOTT. First we'll be talkin' about Titanicus, Neptuna's lost octopus. Titanicus used to be Neptuna's head (literally) octopus and would serve as hair and a handy super when things were tight. Unfortunately, he got lost in the sewer and was forced to adapt and survive, he now vows for revenge on the person who never came looking for him. ARENA His battle takes place in a seismic clam shell with many entrances and tubes over head, On phase 2 The shell shuts and you're forced to find him with his bioluminescence. You are in submarines when you fight him, so you can swim anywhere in the arena. FIGHT You first have to lure Titanicus to you using the current head octopus of Neptuna. Titanicus will sense him, and come on over to vanquish him, all you have to do is defend the head octopus for 2 waves of garden ops, as he was kind of a jerk in middle school and all the other ocean creatures don't remember him fondly. When Titanicus finally arrives, hit em' with a concussive missile to get his attention, and start battling it out. The first phase is nothing special, he just spits ink and fish remains and occasionally swipes you with a tentacle, though whenever he takes too much damage, he squirts ink everywhere and either hides, or attacks while you're blinded. Just look around the arena to see if you can spot him, if you think you did, shoot him to knock him out of hiding and transition to phase 2. If he attacks, he will cling to your sub and starting crushing it. Use audio cues to find out if he's attacking you, then use a defense charge and shock him off of you, careful though, he will try to trick you into using the charge by rubbing or shaking your sub, you only have 4 charges. Second phase has him adopt a new spinning tentacle attack and summoning little cuttlefish to mesmerize you, the cuttlefish are basically swimming hypno-shrooms, while the tentacle attack will send you spinning in the direction it's going. Phase 3 is when Titanicus has had enough of this garbage and just books it, but luckily our good pals Nutz & Boltz and Benson & Bentley, come on down to give you Zomboss patented Zuper Boozterz to allow you to chase Titanicus down, they only did this so they can see how the fight plays out (and because they placed bets on you and don't want to waste money). So, you chase down the many tentacled menace while he squirts ink at you to slow down your sub, releases a vortex to knock your sub off course, and straight up spit fish guts at you to destroy your sub. Eventually you force him back into the shell but he Isn't looking where he's going and hits the hinge of the shell too hard and accidentally closes it. You're locked in the shell while Titanicus basically does phase 2 again, But you can only see a coupla dots, the spin attack is much deadlier now that you're in a much smaller space and you can barely see Titanicus. Eventually, once you knock him down a peg, he sucks up all the water, including you, and spits you out of the shell. He then uses the shell as armor in order to moidah (murder) you. He will roll around and try to run you over and he'll jump super high and try to smash you with his shell. Once you take him out, he deflates to the size of a normal octopus and you have won the day REWARDS For vanquishing Titanicus you get 250 Starfruits, 250 Brainz, A legendary hat for Space Cadet, a brand new variant for Soldier called "The Earl of Pearl", and a big ol' universal sailor's cap (WITH HAIR). Next up is Clapper.
I was recently interviewed by Golf Digest via Twitter on how I made a significant improvement to my index in 2019. The article is here: https://www.golfdigest.com/story/five-takeaways-from-golfers-who-had-huge-breakthroughs-in-2019, but like most interviews, they left a lot out, so I wanted to share what I told them and hopefully it makes other people better too. In 2019, I went from a 13.5 to an 8.6 index and they were curious about how I did it. Here are my pointers. The TLDR is that I kept stats, looked at where I was screwing up, and started to play boring golf. I didn't hit bombs (my average drive is about a 240 - 250 yard carry with a little roll if I'm lucky). I didn't have any 2-footers for eagle. I didn't have any holes in one (I never have). I didn't buy new clubs or get a Scotty (I play Callaway Razr's that are about 9-years old and a very old, but reliable Ping putter). I just tried to hit more fairways, more greens, and get up and down more frequently. Here goes:
I'm 47-years old. I've been playing for 25-years. The odds of me getting better at hitting a 4 - 8-iron without a ton of time / practice is pretty minimal. I have a family and a job, so I'm not going to commit to that.
That said, my GIR isn't horrible. I hit somewhere between 7 - 9 GIR's per round, so even if I work my ass off, I might get to 70% (the PGA average from 160-yards), this isn't that much of a gain for me based on the time going in to it.
I've been using Golfshot for ages and have all of my stats. I used to look at them regularly, but until 2019, never really did anything with them. I did notice that my scrambling percentage was terrible. If I missed a green, I would only get up and down about 12% of the time.
While I don't have stats, anecdotally, this is because I usually short sided myself, so getting close was really hard. I'd put myself in situations that top players in the world wouldn't be able to get up and down from. I needed to miss better.
I also had a belief that my putting was good, but when I looked at stats, I was averaging 2.4 putts if I got a GIR and 1.8 putts if I didn't. In either case, this isn't good.
So here were two immediate areas that I could work on. If I could get my putting to be 2-putts per GIR and 1.5 putts for greens I miss, that would save me 5 - 6 strokes per round alone.
Here is my math - If I hit 8-greens per round and shave 0.5 strokes per hole, that is 4-strokes. If I miss 10-greens, but can reduce my putts from 1.8 to 1.5, that is another 3-strokes. Anyone can stroke a 30-foot putt and get it close. It doesn't take physical prowess to pull that off.
Just this realization alone, caused me to change my entire practice routine. I used to go to the range and hit 10 - 15 wedges, then hit 30 - 50 drivers, then hit the balance of which ever iron I felt like hitting. Roughly 100-balls. Then go home.
Now I'll go to the range, I get a small bucket (40-balls) and I'll hit twenty 50 - 100 yard shots. I switch flags with every shot, but work hard to get this distance dialed in. I'll then hit ten 8-irons to 150-yard flag and ten drivers to a specific spot on the range. The rest of the time I have, I spend chipping and putting. I only play one ball and I play to get it up and down like I'm in a real game. If I have the time, I don't go home until I can get up and down 5-times in a row.
I bought a PuttOut matt and cup that I keep at my desk and just practice 5-footers while I'm on conference calls. I probably hit 100+ per day. This has helped immensely on short putts. The speed is a little wonky, but the stroke, grip, and posture have improved quite a bit.
At the time of the interview, my putts for my previous five rounds were 2.05 for GIR's and 1.7 if I miss the green. This alone is a 5-stroke improvement from where I was.
My scrambling and sand saves are also up to 25% from 12%. This equates to about 1.5 strokes per round. This is attributed to two things, first just practice from around the greens and second, I'm missing better and giving myself a chance to get up and down vs. having to hit a short sided flop over a bunker.
Because I was keeping track of my stats, I was able to see which holes I was consistently blowing up and noticed a few things.
First, there are 2 holes on my home course that always cause me trouble. Both are long par-4's that tend to have a lot of trouble and play right in to the wind. I was averaging 6.8 and 6.4 strokes on each hole respectively. I changed my attitude and started to treat these as short par 5's and recognize that it is okay to get on the green in 3 vs. risking that I'll be in a bunker, push OB, or get in some other trouble. Now, once in a while a putt drops and I make a 4, but usually my score is in the 5-range on both holes. It isn't sexy, but this saves me 2-strokes per round.
Second, I noticed that I tend to blow up on short part 5's. This might seem counterintuitive, but what happens is that I hit a decent tee shot (middle of fairway, 230ish out) and I have to hit a career shot to get on the green. From 230-yards, I can hit the green 10% of the time, but 50% the time I short side myself, end up in trouble around the green (bunkers, bad lies, etc.) or I top it and it rolls out about 90-yards. This last scenario tends to be the best from a scoring standpoint, BTW. The other 40% of the time, I blow it OB or in a hazard. Next thing you know, I'm in a bad spot and looking to have to do something heroic to save par, which never works. As a result, I'm trying to make a personal rule not to go for par-5's in 2 no matter what the distance. The same is true for short par-4's. Boring, I know, but it's saved me a few strokes. Often, in the heat of the moment, I forget this rule.
This is hard to quantify, but I'm trying to be more committed to shots. I'll even say out loud, 'I'm aiming at X-point and I want to hit a draw / fade to X-location". Mentally, it helps me to visualize my shot and I tend to talk myself out of doing something stupid.
I've been setting pre-round goals for myself. I often hear pros talk about how they need to shoot a 66-to win or something like that. They clearly have a plan on how they are going to get to 66. I put the same thing together. My plans are more simple - hit 9-greens, get up and down 5-times. play par 5-s even, play the par 3's at +2 or better. Whatever it might be. I try to only have 1 or 2 goals per round and they are usually different per round, but it lets me focus on what I want to do that day vs. just go hit bombs and attack pins.
For example, if my goal is to be +2 on the par 3's, rather than attacking pins, I'll just try to play to the safest spot, with the safest miss. If my goal is to be even on the par-5's, I'll usually hit a hybrid or an iron off the tee, hit a second shot to 125-130 yards and then hit that shot, which I'm highly confident in. I know, it is boring, but it works for lower scores.
Finally, for the most part, I've quit drinking alcohol when I play. Lame, I know. But I find that even with one beer, I make small mental errors that hurt my score. I don't line up a shot, I get false confidence and do something I shouldn't, push / pull putts. It is probably only 1 - 2 strokes a round, but it is annoying.
So, adding all that up, in an optimal situation, I'm gaining 7-strokes with better putting, another 3-with better chipping around the greens to get up and down, 2 -3 on the par-4s that I screw up on my home course, and another 2-or so by not messing up the short par-5s. When you add it all up, if golf were a perfect game, that is probably 12 - 15-strokes per round, but we know that doesn't happen. It's really come out to about 5-strokes per round. Some days are good - I was 4-over par yesterday on a fairly easy course and some days are bad - I shot a 93 at a friends course that always eats me up. A year ago, though, that +4 was a +8 and the 93 was likely a 99 or worse. It isn't sexy. I'd love to hit bombs 300 down the middle, but I just don't have that in me. I'd love to hit irons to 9' away and have it back-up to the hole, but that isn't going to happen either. So I have to play the game based on what I have, which is boring golf. You should try it. Hopefully this helps.
From The Designers Magic Chess Season 2 - Cadia Tales
The last update was a great success as there was massive positive feedback from our players. With the new heroes and synergies, our players were able to come up with more strategies in the game. But we also found that the great changes in the synergy had caused a struggle for some players to learn the new mechanism. Thus, we had set a goal for ourselves when designing the new update: to make the new content both easy to learn and novel to experience. Fortunately, we have generated a few plans, and some of them have already been implemented in this update of the new season - Cadia Tales. in Cadia Tales, there is going to be a hero rotation, and the new heroes including the much-awaited Yu Zhong are joining the Magic Chess! While few adjustments are made in the Synergy, many new contents are added to the Equipment and the Little Commanders. [RAVAGE] Ravage Mode is back! As the most fast-paced mode, the Ravage Mode was only available for a short period last year. During the past year, we have made a significant update to this mode according to last year's feedback, including the new 3V3 mode. For details, please refer to the mode patch notes.
I. New Heroes & Revamped Heroes
Desert Scimitar - Khaleed The new hero presale begins on July 31. Official launch on August 6th. Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF.
Hero Feature: A swift and dauntless fighter who battles with the help of the Desert Power
Skill 1: [Desert Tornado] - Khaleed shoots sand knives, dealing damage to nearby enemies. Upon hitting the enemy, he leaps one time in the movement direction and casts this skill again for a maximum of 3 times. Skill 2. [Quicksand Guard] - Khaleed protects himself with the power of quicksand restoring HP and Desert Power and reducing damage taken. Meanwhile, quicksand appears under his feet, slowing nearby enemies. Ultimate: [Raging Sandstorm] - Khaleed summons a sandstorm and rushes toward a designated place, gaining Control Immunity, dealing damage to enemies on the path and constantly pushing them. Upon arriving at the destination, Khaleed shakes the ground, dealing great damage to enemies within the range and stunning them. Passive: [Sand Walk] - Khaleed accumulates Desert Power while moving. After Desert Power is fully charged, Khaleed will slide on sand, increasing Movement Speed and enhancing his next Basic Attack. With the enhanced Basic Attack, Khaleed dashes to the target and raises a wave of surging sand, dealing damage to the target and enemies behind and leaving a pool of sand. Khaleed gains Movement Speed on the sand pool while his enemies are slowed on it.
II. Weekly Free Heroes & New Skins
Baxia's new skin "Badass Roller" will be available on July 14 (Server Time). Diamond 599. Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF. Baxia and skin **"Badass Roller" will be in a bundle and available on July 14 (Server Time). Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF. Ling's new skin "Night Shade" will be available on July 17 (Server Time). Diamond 899. Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF. Ling and skin "Night Shade" will be in a bundle and available on July 17 (Server Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF. Nana's new skin "Sundress" will be available on July 21 (Server Time). Diamond 749. Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF. Nana and skin "Sundress" will be in a bundle and available on July 21 (Server Time). Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF. Angela's new skin "Summer Vibes" will be available on July 21 (Server Time). Diamond 749. Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF. Angela and skin "Summer Vibes" will be in a bundle and available on July 21 (Server Time). Launch week 30% Diamonds OFF. Fragment Shop Adjustments on July 15. a. Rare Skin Fragment Shop Will be available: Franco "Apocalypse", Alucard "Viscount": Gusion "Cyber Ops". Fanny "Royal Cavalry". Hanabi "Fiery Moth" Will be unavailable: Miya "Captain Thorns", Karina "Black Pearl", Clint "Rock and Roll, Harley "Royal Magister", Alice "Steam Glider" b. Hero Fragment Shop Will be available: Pharsa, Angela, Wanwan, Cecilion, Carmilla, Baxia, will be unavailable: Hayabusa, Gusion, Kimmy, Estes, Hanzo, Masha 8 Free Heroes: Server Time 7/31/2020 05:01:00 to 8/7/2020 05:00:00 (Tap the Settings button on the top-right corner of the main page to check.): Vexana" Moskov Lanox: Trithel, Karrie: Sun, Aldous: Franco 6 Extra Starlight Member Heroes: Lylia, Kimmy: Wanwan; Pharsa; Minotaur, Baxia 8 Free Heroes: Server Time 8/7/2020 05:01:00 to 8/14/2020 05:00:00 (Tap the Settings button on the top-right corner of the main page to check.) Akai: Cecilion: EstesArgus. Vale, Martis, Harith; Faramis 16 Extra Starlight Member Heroes: Alpha: Diggie: Kagura, Aldous: Khufra; Terizla, 8 Free Heroes: Server Time 8/14/2020 05:01:00 to 8/21/2020 05:00:00 (Tap the Settings button on the top-right corner of the main page to check) Lolita: Rafaela: Yi Sun-shin, Kimmy: Gatotkaca: Ling; Minsitthar, Valir 6 Extra Starlight Member Heroes: Chang'e: Moskov; Lancelot, Clint; Argus, Belerick 8 Free Heroes: Server Time 8/21/2020 05:01:00 to 8/28/2020 05:00:00 (Tap the Settings button on the top-right corner of the main page to check:) Thamuz: Clint: Hanabi: Hilda: Carmilla; Irithel; Dyrroth; Leomord 6 Extra Starlight Member Heroes: Cecilion: Gusion, Zhask; RubyBane; Uranus 8 Free Heroes: Server Time 8/28/2020 05:01:00 to 9/4/2020 05:00:00 (Tap the Settings button on the top-right corner of the main page to check.) Hayabusa: Fanny Roger: Lancelot: Esmeralda Angela: Zhask; Wanwan 6 Extra Starlight Member Heroes: Chou, Baxia; Lapu-Lapu, Faramis, Hanzo: Terizla 8 Free Heroes: Server Time 9/4/2020 05:01:00 to 9/11/2020 05:00:00 (Tap the Settings button on the top-right corner of the main page to check.) Granger: Atlas Minotaur Helcurt: Johnson, Masha; Khufra, Hanzo 6 Extra Starlight Member Heroes: Harley: Hanabi, X.Borg, Selena; Kagura, Sun
III. Hero Adjustments
In this patch, we have mainly adjusted these heroes: Vale, Cyclops, Alpha, Yu Zhong, Kaja, Granger Claude, Kimmy Khufra, Gatotkaca, Balmond, Hilda, Esmeralda [Vale] Wind Blade: Sorrow - Base damage adjusted from 280-505 to 300 550. Windblow - Slow effect adjusted from 30% to 40%. Windblow: Control - Airborne duration adjusted from 0.9 to 1.2s. Windstorm: Death - Base damage adjusted from 960-1440 to 1200-1800. [Cyclops] Planets Attack - The decay ratio toward the same target increased from 50%-70% to 60%-90%. Stardust Shock - Base damage of each stardust wave increased by 30 at all levels. [Alpha] Rotary Impact - Slow effect increased from 40% to 70%. Slightly increased the width of the effect area. Synchronized the visual effect and the actual area of effect. Force Swing - Removed the slow effect. Mana Cost reduced from 65-90 to 45-70. Spear of Alpha - Base damage dealt by Beta increased from 205-285 to 225-315, and Physical Attack Bonus increased from 80% to 280%. Cooldown adjusted from 24s at all levels to 24-20s. [Yu Zhong] Yu Zhong's performance on the Advanced Server shows that it is quite difficult for players to trigger the Sha Residue eruption, thus we have set high benefits for this effect. However, we have found that about twice as many players as before are able to utilize this mechanism. To deal with the balance problem caused by the frequent high HP restoration, we have adjusted the HP restoration amount. Meanwhile, we have slightly reduced the Movement Speed gain from the fully-charged Sha Essence to ease the problem. Cursing Touch - HP Restoration from each stack consumption reduced from 8% of lost HP to 6%. Movement Speed gain reduced from 40% to 30%. [Kaja] Since the suppression effect of Kaja's ultimate cannot be purified, we've found that he becomes quite difficult for players to deal with and his burst capability is overpowered in the early game. Thus we have reduced his crowd control area and early game burst damage, while having his sustained damage capability strengthened. Ring of Order - Base damage reduced from 150-350 to 120-270. Cooldown reduced from 8-6.5 to 7-5s. Mana Cost reduced from 60-110 to 50-75. Divine Judgment - Skill range reduced by 15%. Wrath Sanction - Max HP based bonus damage adjusted from 6% to-4%. Magic Power Bonus increased from 70% to 100% [Granger] Rhapsody - Base damage adjusted from 15-155 to 30-180. Physical Attack Bonus adjusted from 80% to 70%. Rondo - Extra damage for the next 2 Basic Attacks adjusted from 10%-20% to 10%-30%. Death Sonata - Base damage adjusted from 120-200 to 30-120. Physical Attack Bonus adjusted from 100% to 70%. This skill also deals 12% of the enemy's lost HP as Physical Damage now. [Claude] Art of Thievery - Attack Speed gain and Movement Speed gain adjusted from 3.5%-6% to 2%-4.5%. [Kimmy] Energy Transformation - Physical Attack Bonus adjusted from 42% to 34%-44%. Magic Power Bonus adjusted from 48% to 40%-50%. Chemical Refinement - The enemy units will restore Movement Speed more quickly now after leaving the area of slow effect. Maximum Charge - Cooldown adjusted from 24-16 to 28-20s. [Khufra] Tyrant's Revenge - Base damage adjusted from 80-230 to 150-250. Damage Bonus adjusted from 10% of Max HP at all levels to 7.5%-10%. Bouncing Ball - Damage bonus adjusted from 5% of Max HP at all levels to 3:5%-6%. Physical & Magic Defense gain adjusted from 60%-100% to 50%-100%. Slow duration adjusted from 0.5 to 0.25 [Gatotkaca] Blast Iron Fist - Base damage over time adjusted from 75-150 to 100-150. Unbreakable - Optimized the response upon charging into a block. Gatotkaca can now pass through the block more precisely. Steel Bones - The damage of his enhanced Basic Attack scales less with his level now. He now restores HP based on Rage consumption. [Balmond] Cyclone Sweep - Base Damage adjusted from 60-185 to 50-200. Physical Attack Bonus increased from 35% to 50%. Only the Physical Attack Bonus damage can be critical now. Optimized skill description. Lethal Counter - Cooldown reduced from 40-26 to 32-24s. [Hilda] Combat Ritual - Fixed the issue where the enhanced Basic Attack cannot trigger the attack effects. Power of Wildness - Fixed the issue where the skill range is too little before reaching full stacks. Stack limit reduced from 10 to 8. Damage increase of each stack increased from 40-50 to 50-60. The stack number is shown below the HP bar now. [Esmeralda] Frostmoon Shield: Shield gain adjusted from 420-770 to 350-700 Stardust Dance - Slow effect reduced from 25% to 10%. Optimized skill description. [Yi Sun-shin] Slightly shortened the backswing of his Basic Attack. Heavenly Vow - The Movement Speed gain from the Turtle Ship after decay increased from 15% to 21%. Dauntless Fleet - Synchronized the indicator size with the actual effect. [Valir] Searing Torrent - Cooldown adjusted from 11-9 to 13-10s. [Zhask] Fixed the issue where the enhanced Nightmaric Spawn doesn't lose HP when being attacked by creeps. [Masha] Fixed the damage number issue of Wild Power and Thunderclap. Wild Power - When active, the additional base damage of her Basic Attack adjusted to 120 at all levels.
IV. Battlefield Adjustments
Battlefield
Increased Movement Speed of Side Lane Minions.
Optimized Roles and Labels of some heroes.
a. Alice: New Secondary Role - Tank b. Kadita: New Secondary Role - Assassin c. Masha: Removed Secondary Role - Tank d. Karina, Gusion, Guinevere, Silvanna: Removed Secondary Role - Mage; New Label - Magic Damage e. Lolita: Primary Role and Secondary Role swapped. She's now Support/Tank
Optimized the map performance of Imperial Sanctuary in Ultra Graphics
Fixed the abnormal damage result when Harley casts his Ultimate to Kupa.
Fixed the issue where Yu Zhong would exit the Barrel prematurely when using Barrel skill in Black Dragon form in Brawl Mode.
Fixed the abnormal skill timer of Lesley's Skill 1 caused by leaving bushes after using the skill.
Fixed Ling's model color issue after getting off the wall caused by leaving bushes after using his skill
Fixed the display issue of the incoming HP restoration for Argus' ultimate. 9.Fixed the issue happened when Yi Sun shin and Jawhead are in the same match.
Equipment The statistics show that being enhanced by certain equipment and buffs, a large number of Assassins and Marksmen are able to deal excessive damage with a single. Basic Attack. To enrich the build choice and the gameplay for our players, we have adjusted these equipment and buffs to some extent. Blade of the Heptaseas Physical Attack increased from 65 to 70 Unique Passive: Ambush - Extra base damage of the next Basic Attack increased from 180 to 240, whereas the Physical Attack Bonus reduced from 100% to 60%. Blade of Despair Physical Attack reduced from 170 to 160. Raptor Machete The Unique Passive deals Physical Damage instead of True Damage now. Optimized the description. Core GuardSoul of Lava: Damage for Marksman/Mage/Support adjusted from 50+60% Physical Attack to 50+30% Physical Attack+50*Attack Speed. Slow effect reduced from 30% to 20%. Damage for Assassin/FighteTank adjusted from 50+40% Physical Attack to 50+20% Physical Attack+30+Attack Speed. Slow effect reduced from 80% to 60%. Creeps
The Little Crabs are now spawned at the 40s into the match instead of 45s.
Walkie Grass - HP Restoration per second for allied heroes reduced from 2% to 1%. HP Restoration for minions unchanged. *** #V. New Events & Features
KOF skins return for ONLY 30 DAYS, including lori Yagami Leona, K, and Kula Diamond a. During the event, you can get Epic skin, Special skin, Elite skin, Basic Skin, permanent rare battle emote, and other items in the prizepool by performing a lucky draw. b. A "Leona" is guaranteed when you perform the 10th draw for the first time. Duplicate ones obtained from the event will be converted to a random Epic Skin. c. An Epic Skin is guaranteed every 10 draws. d. A KOF skin is quaranteed after completing a Bingo line for the first 2 times, e. Complete a horizontal, vertical, or diagonal line to achieve a Bingo and win an Epic Skin that you haven't owned. f. Tap the prize pool to view the reward details. g. Duplicate skins obtained from the event will be automatically converted into Skin Fragments accordingly. h. When the event is over the related items including KOF Bingo Lotteries will be removed automatically. Accordingly, some Battle Points will be returned by in-game mail. I. A maximum of 10 records of obtaining skins will be shown in the history. 2. Summer Carnival Skin Gifting Event a. When your friend sends you Nana "Sundress" or Angela "Summer Vibes" as a gift you can claim one of the Summer Carnival Avatar Borders on the event page. b. When you have obtained both Nana "Sundress" and Angela "Summer Vibes", you can claim one of the Summer Carnival Avatar Borders on the event page. C. You can only claim ONE Avatar Border in this event. Please select carefully. d. Please remember to claim the Avatar Border during the event as it will be unclaimable when the event is over. 3. Network Boost Function a. Network Boost Function is now available. It can help you improve the in-battlefield connection. This function requires both 4G and WiFi. b. You can turn on this function by Tapping the Settings on the top right in the Main Screen -> Network Setting -> Network Boost switch, or Tapping the Settings in the battlefield -> Network Setting -> Network Boost switch c. This function is currently only available in Android devices, iOS is coming soon, please stay tuned!
VI. System Adjustments
An invalid match can now be triggered when the player starts AFK at the first 0-3s of a match, instead of Os.
Invalid matches are not counted in the win rates of the favorite heroes now.
Added the low battery reminder. 4.Optimized the Team Recruit Channel: You now have more options to send in the recruiting message. (eg the role you want for your team) 5.Optimized the UI of the lobby
Adjusted Chapter II of Mastery Code for Freya and Luo Yi.
MCL optimizations
a: Simplified the promotion/elimination process. Tidied up the redundant interfaces. b. You can send Quick Chat in the MCL lobby now.
Added the special effects for the MCL champion team members and 5-player teams on the loading screen.
A new style is applied to the bullet screen sent by the streamer.
Fixed the sound effect issue due to reconnection.
AFK Punishment Rule Adjustments
a: Performing short period AFK multiple times is regarded as AFK and the player will be punished. b. If the total AFK time of a player is over a certain period of time, this player will not get a star even if the team has won the match. c. The player who has performed AFK multiple times will be banned from Ranked Mode for a long period of time.
Live Stream Shopping
a. Added the Live Stream Shopping function where the streamers introduce various game items to you. Limited-time and limited-amount discounts only here in the Live Stream Shopping! b. Added chat function and purchase announcement. c. Added some new visual effects for the promotion image and the Livestream Channel d. Fixed the issue where the live screen may overlap with other screens in some instances e. Added entrance icon on the main screen and red dot reminder.
Added swearing punishment out of the battlefield. When a player frequently sends swearing messages in the public chat channel, this player will be disabled from sending messages.
Esports Tournament observer camera adjustment You can change the camera range now.
Esports Live Stream promotion image optimization
When the team avatar hasn't been set yet, the black background color is hidden. Mobile Legends: Bang Bang
Putting together my tips for this week, I couldn't find any strength-of-schedule rankings. Stats Insider appears to still be calculating it based on the 23-round fixture rather than adjusting for the Rona-shortened remainder. Then when I tried to DIY, like Hal Wilkerson trying to replace a lightbulb, I kept having to go one step farther to do it right. Even this far into a season, the ladder rankings can be hard to credit because the top teams can be there just by virtue of feasting on poor opposition. For any short stretch of games, that's to be expected: the teams at the bottom of the ladder are there because they're so beatable, so any club facing a run of bottom-dwellers should bank lots of premiership points. Still, in judging a head-to-head matchup for the purpose of tipping, I think it's informative to know which teams got their points from tougher opposition. So here are all the teams re-ranked according to the average ladder position of the teams they've defeated. Smaller numbers are better. Unless you're the Crows, in which case the sum of your defeated opponents' ladder position is zero because you're shite.
Rank
Club
Average Ladder Position of Defeated Opponents (ALPDO)
Club's current Ladder Position
1
Giants
7.3
13
2
Hawks
7.7
14
3
Blues
8.0
11
4
Magpies
8.5
3
5
Cats
8.8
5
6
Roos
9.5
17
7
Saints
10.5
6
8
Dees
10.7
12
9
Lions
11.0
2
10
Port
12.0
1
11
Dockers
12.0
15
12
Dons
12.8
10
13
Bulldogs
14.0
9
14
Tigers
14.0
4
15
Suns
14.3
7
16
Eagles
15.3
8
17
Swans
17.5
16
18
Crows
#ERR_DIV_0
18
Here's where the Hal Wilkerson Cycle kicked in. I think too much time has passed since Round 1 for its results to be relevant to tipping. Given the relocation to hubs, shortened quarters, long interlude of restricted training time, and accumulated injuries, would you expect four-goal margins for Richmond over Carlton, Hawthorn over Brisbane, AND GWS over Geelong this week? So I needed to re-run the rankings with Round 1 results excluded. Now it's "Restarted Average Ladder Position of Defeated Opponents" - RALPDO. "RALPDO" -I'm sure there's a fitting Simpsons .gif of Ralph Wiggum trying to do math but I can't be arsed to find it.
Rank
Club
Restarted Average Ladder Position of Defeated Opponents (RALPDO)
Club's Amended Ladder Position based on Restarted points and %age
1
Blues
6.3
10
2
Cats
7.5
3
3
Magpies
8.0
7
4
Dees
9.7
9
5
Saints
10.3
6
6
Giants
11.0
13
7
Lions
11.6
2
8
Dockers
12.0
14
9
Hawks
12.5
15
10
Roos
13.0
17
11
Dons
13.3
11
12
Port
13.4
1
13
Tigers
14.0
8
14
Bulldogs
14.3
5
15
Suns
15.0
4
16
Eagles
16.0
12
17
Swans
17.0
16
18
Crows
#ERR_DIV_0
18
Next in the Hal Wilkerson Cycle, I remembered that Essendon vs Melbourne was postponed. If either team had won it they would be on 16 points (excluding R1), putting them anywhere from 3rd to 7th depending on percentage. Realistically it would probably be 7th because all the other teams on 16 have pretty strong percentage and these two don't. So I credited the Dons with 4 points, because the Dees don't have Herbatron making videos for them each week, and added a two-goal win to their percentage. (69.67 to 58, the average of their 3 winning scores and 3 winning defenses so far.) I also updated Melbourne's percentage with the same score. So now here's Presumptively Enhanced Restarted Average Ladder Position of Defeated Opponents, or PERALPDO for short.
Rank
Club
Presumptively Enhanced Restarted Average Ladder Position of Defeated Opponents (PERALPDO)
Club's Presumptively Enhanced Amended Ladder Position based on Restarted points and %age
1
Blues
5.0
11
2
Cats
7.8
3
3
Magpies
8.0
8
4
Demons
10.0
10
5
Saints
10.8
6
6
Dons
11.3
7
7
Giants
11.5
13
8
Lions
11.6
2
9
Dockers
12.0
14
10
Hawks
13.0
15
11
Roos
13.0
17
12
Bulldogs
13.3
5
13
Port
13.6
1
14
Tigers
14.3
9
15
Suns
15.0
4
16
Eagles
16.0
12
17
Swans
17.0
16
18
Crows
#ERR_DIV_0
18
And finally in the Hal Wilkerson Cycle, after puzzling over how to handle Essendon's percentage and break the tie amongst 16-point clubs, I remembered there was an unbroken tie: that awful first game back, Collingwood drawing with Richmond. I'm not quite sure how to handle the draw in my re-rankings. The most basic handling of the result is a strict interpretation of 'defeated opponents' - a draw is not a win, so neither team gets credit for defeating anyone. I think I should credit it somehow though, because in terms of points it's a half-win for both clubs, and those 2 points show up on the ladder. So I increased their denominator in PERALPDO by 0.5 to reflect an extra half-win, and added half the ladder rank to the numerator, to arrive finally at Draw-Acknowledging Presumptively Enhanced Restarted Average Ladder Position of Defeated Opponents, or DAPERALPDO for short.
Rank
Club
Draw-Acknowledging Presumptively Enhanced Restarted Average Ladder Position of Defeated Opponents (DAPERALPDO)
Club's Presumptively Enhanced Amended Ladder Position based on Restarted points and %age
1
Blues
5.0
11
2
Cats
7.8
3
3
Magpies
8.1
8
4
Demons
10.0
10
5
Saints
10.8
6
6
Dons
11.3
7
7
Giants
11.5
13
8
Lions
11.6
2
9
Dockers
12.0
14
10
Hawks
13.0
15
11
Roos
13.0
17
12
Bulldogs
13.3
5
13
Tigers
13.4
9
14
Port
13.6
1
15
Suns
15.0
4
16
Eagles
16.0
12
17
Swans
17.0
16
18
Crows
#ERR_DIV_0
18
Silly acronyms aside, my biggest takeaway from this exercise is that I'm really terrible at working with Excel. I can't tell you how many times the numbers changed when I double-checked them, and Essendon's percentage was consistently crazy for the better part of a day because my cat hit the 0 key when the focus was on their 'Total Points For" cell. Some of this is probably still wrong. I offer no warranty and encourage anyone bored enough to run the figures on their own. My second-biggest takeway here is extra respect for Carlton. Gifting Essendon a win in round 5 artificially boosts Carlton's strength-of-schedule in DAPERALPDO, but they still have the best RALPDO, suggesting they really get up on game day vs. top-tier opposition. This was pretty well borne out in the best match of the week just gone. Two of their 3 losses have also been close, so with just a titch more luck they will beat the next highly-ranked opponent they face. The Giants, Dockers, Hawks, and Roos all have a 6- or 7-place gap between their RALPDO ranking and their ladder position, suggesting that at their best they're capable of beating nearly anyone (though that's no guarantee of them actually getting up to do it on a particular day). To a lesser extent it's also true for Melbourne, as evidenced by their close loss to Geelong. In the case of North and Freo, they're badly hobbled by injuries right now, so think about tipping them in some upsets as they get key players back. Finally, even though the Saints' RALPDO isn't far off their restart-adjsuted ladder position, they're clearly very dangerous when they're at their best. I reckon Brisbane and Port (especially Port!!) are on upset watch this week.
The Order of Hiaidou (samurai clan) is an ancient clan from Ionia who perfected the 7 styles of sword fighting for peace making and judgement way. Aizen was born in the Hiaidou Dojo at a very young age and the only youngest member (around 17 yrs old) who was already qualified to bring the name of Hiaidou Order. Hiaidou clan join the historical battle during the invasion of Noxians, they were one of the assets during war, one of the strongs and group of frontliners who dominate the battle. But after the war ended, 85% of the member remained alive. This record of history made him wonder, that if their sword fighting style is perfect, why some of member of their clan is still suffered from death. So Aizen seeks for his own path by perfecting the 7 sword fighting styles of Hiaidou. Challenging swordsman and seeks the title for being the best swordsman in the runeterra. His journey defeats many swordsman with different sword fighting style. He struggle to win from multiple challenges but was victorious at the end. Some mistakes made him realize that it needs something more toward perfection. As he learn something new he used these lapses to polish his Hiaidou styles. After experiencing almost of sword fights in all sides of runeterra. One day he heard rumors about the last Wuju Master who perfected the Wuju Swordsman style. So Aizen went to seek Challenge on Master Yi. He met Master Yi and challenge him, a fight was one sided and he was easily defeated. Master Yi said, "What's your name kid?", "Aizen", he replied."You're so young to fight me. Challenge me when you are ready". Aizen feel so very down. "Why? what is missing in my sword styles?". Master Yi replied, "Its too early for you to beat me. Just find your true Goal..and don't seek to be the strongest swordsman. Your style need some important purpose and not this meaningless duel"..Aizen was enlightened by Master Yi's words.."and also be thankful I was your first defeat" boastfully said by Master Yi then walks away. Aizen return to their Dojo and still thinking what could be his true goal. He read their Old tomes, history of Hiaidou Order and etc. After many days of thinking Aizen find his own true goal - not to be the strongest swordsman but to be the strongest to protect what must be protected. Aizen was enlightened after hearing words of wisdom from his masters in the dojo. He didn't know the depths of the Hiaidou, its just he only use the styles with true strength but no thinking. He start to become humble and hear the advices of his elders not like when he was in his young mind (very boastful with talent and too mush pride in himself) before he taste defeat from Master Yi. Aizen became matured one and he complete his 7 styles into 1 synchronized style called as Hyudo Style (his own Hiaidou Style). Aizen wanted to meet Master Yi not to challenge if who were the strongest but to duel him in order to exchange slashes of blades symbolizing gratification and maybe Friendship?..( I don't know any words ro express what I am thinking)..
Passive: Hyudo Style
CROUCHING TIGER STYLE: (Aizen's favourite style when he was young, perfecting it into a decent one.). Aizen dashes and strike the target unit and mark them for 6 seconds. Aizen cannot dash again to the MARKED UNIT. THIRD FANG: In every third attack of Aizen he will perform a modified Basic Attack. Modified basic attack has 4 forms it depends on the last style he activate.
■LIGHTNING DRAW STYLE: With great speed after 3rd attack he enter 0.65 second stealthed. While stealthed he gain 100% decaying movement speed. ■SWORD BREAKER STYLE: Third attack perform a Surround Slash that grant him Shield equal to 15% damage dealt against every unit. Maximum Shield is equal to 25% of his max Health and starts to decay after 8 seconds of inactivity from the battle. ■SOARING DRAGON STYLE: Third attack perform an upperslash that knocks airborne for 1 second. This CC effect can only happen in each unit by once in every 8 seconds. ■LIGHT FOOT STYLE: Third Attack dash and slash through target at 425 unit dash dealing 35% damage converted as True Damage to all unit hit. This will also REMOVE all Marks to all unit hit by the Crouching Tiger Style passive (allowing Aizen to re-enter or dash in toward the target).
Q: Flows of Edge
ACTIVE: Aizen sheathes his sword and readies himself from incoming attacks/spells for 1.25 seconds. This spell may resemble with Fiora's Parry which he can't do any action but Aizen can move freely. This parry has two effect, he can parry ranged attacks or melee attacks. LIGHTNING DRAW STYLE: While he is readying, a range is shown around him. Any projectiles from attack/spell that passess through the range, Aizen will parry then slash it to deflect it toward the attackecaster. Deflected damage deal a percentage of damage from the origin. Deflected Projectile is still follow their spell type (if the projectile is on-target it will deflect on-target. If the projectile is direction-targeted it will be deflected as directional-targeted.). SWORD BREAKER STYLE: While he is readying, any incoming melee attacks will be parried. Then Aizen follow it up with hilt attack from his sword to strike their arm. It will deal damage then disarm them.
Deflect Damage
(70/80/90/100/110%) of the damage from original source
Range Deflect Indicator
400 units
Hilt Damage
(20/45/70/95/120) (+150% AD)
Disarm Duration
(1.5/1.75/2/2.25/2.5)
Cooldown
(14/13/12/11/10) seconds
Cost
(35 energy)
W: Soaring Dragon Style
FIRST CAST: Aizen jump high and enters Soaring Dragon Style. While in this style, Aizen became IMMUNE from all GROUND-BASED SPELL/PROJECTILE but VULNERABLE to Auto-attacks and on-target spells. He cannot move freely and automatically slashes nearby enemies (Prior with Aizen's target) with increased Attack Speed. Each Slash scales on Attack speed. Aizen can cast this spell for second cast before he lands. SECOND CAST: Aizen descend to the target position. Each slash would trigger stack on his Third Fang Passive, which may trigger the effect on his next attack after landing.
Slash Damage
(10/25/40/55/70) (+75/80/85/90/95% AD)
Bonus Attack Speed
(20/30/40/50/60%)
Jump Duration
(1/1.25/1.5/1.75/2) seconds
Slash Range
515 units
Cooldown
(18/16/14/12/10) seconds
Cost
(70/65/60/55/50) energy
E: Light Foot Style
ACTIVE: Aizen enters Light Foot Stance granting him Invisibility for a duration and regenerates Energy Twice as fast. During invisible, in every second an afterimage of himself is revealed. Next basic attack would apply Slow and Grounded them for a duration. Aizen may re-enter Stealthed ( to complete the effect duration) after 1.5 seconds lof not dealing or taking damage.
Invisible Duration
(4/5/6/7/8) seconds
Slow
(20/25/30/35/40%)
Slow and Grounded Duration
(1/1.25/1.5/1.75/2) seconds
Cooldown
(14/13/12/11/10) seconds
Cost
(45/40/35/30/25) energy
Ultimate: Dancing Moon Style
ACTIVE: Aizen's formless style where he dances gracefully while slashing enemies. While dancing, he put all Enemy Unit entranced (Charm) who are facing in him. Entranced/Charmed enemy will move toward Aizen with increased Speed while Aizen will also gain the same bonus speed. While dancing, his Basic Attacks trigger Third Fang (passive) in each attack. LAST DANCE: Aizen can cast Last Dance when he successfully perform at least (2/3/4) unique Third Fang (passive) Style. Activation would perform a crescent slash in the target cone that deal Physical damage equal to their missing health. He must cast this spell within 2 seconds after the Dancing.
Effect Duration
(1/1.5/2) seconds
Movement Speed
(80/100/120%)
Entrance/Charm Range
500 units
Crescent Slash Damage
(150/200/250) (+80% bonus AD) plus (10/15/20% missing health)
Crescent range
225 units
Crescent Angle
75°
Cooldown
(100/80/60) seconds
Cost
20 Energy
CHANGE LOG:
●14.07.2020: *Crouching Tiger on-target mark is increased from 4 > 6 seconds. *Soaring Dragon Style now removes Untargetability effect when above ground. Changed to immunity from ground-based spell/projectiles but Vulnerable to on-target unit spells and basic attacks. *Light Foot Style removes the Stealthed RESET after dealing daage to Champion. Changed to Re-enter to stealthed after leaving the invisibility until the effect lasts (Just like Akali's Smoke Bomb). *Last Dance of Dancing Moon Style Ultimate cannot be activated for free. Last Dance must meet conditions before activation. If Aizen perform 2/3/4 unique Third Fang Styles toward Enemy Champion, he can perform the crescent slash. ●07.07.2020 = Aizen now removes her 7 sword style changing stance
Previous Gameplay: HOW TO PLAY AIZEN
Aizen has 7 styles of swordsmanship stance it means he is like Udyr with 7 stances. Each stance is Aizen new swordsmanship that changes his auto-attack styles. This styles are heavily inspired by different style of Katana swordsmanship. In order to use these 7 different styles, a player can switch it back and forth by using Q and E key/button and style OPTION is shown in his W button. To use the stance just activate the W button and voila! you can enjoy use him in many peculiar ways. While in a current stance, you can use Q and E button to pre-select your desired next stance to use. With the help of your ultimate, R button would be like an extra W button which it will display your previous stance used. The thing is, you can feel the difficulty like Aphelios' gameplay. So you must need more games in Aizen to fully understand his gameplay.
Previous 7 Sword Styles
1. Majestic Moon Style
STANCE: Aizen's formless stance but with glorious and majestic dance of sword. This style is used to clear waves fast, deal heavy crowd control at multiple targets, and survivability to last in the battle longer. AUTO-ATTACK STYLE: Aizen attacks in a crescent in front. Each unit hit gain him Moon Stack. When Aizen takes for up to 20% of his max health of damage within 3 seconds, Moon stack is consumed converting it as a SHIELD that absorb incoming damages for 3 seconds. W ACTIVATION: Aizen dances with his blade. While dancing, he can perform crescent auto-attack normally then Charms all unit caught (enemy are mesmerized with the graceful dance) in the range forcing them to move toward Aizen helplessly. Charmed unit gain MOVEMENT SPEED toward him and Aizen will also gain speed with the same amount. Aizen can cast this dance again while in this stance after a cooldown.
Shield per stack
(6/8/10/12/14) (+6% AP)
Crescent Attack Range
175 units
Crescent Angle
180°
Charm Duration
(1/1.15/1.3/1.45/1.6) seconds
Movemet Speed
(20/25/30/35/40%)
Charm AoE range
300 units
Dance Cooldown
(20/18/16/14/12)
Cost
40 energy
2. Lightning Draw Style
STANCE: This stance makes Aizen stays in place (Immobile), body on low level almost kneeling position and holding the sword preparing for a quick draw. This style is used for protection and outplay against Enemy Champion that releases projectiles. AUTO-ATTACK STYLE: While immobile- using Right Click (RMB), Aizen release a blinding slash in a target line (600 unit range) that deal Physical Damage to all unit hit. Slash release scale at the Attack Speed. This Slash could also DEFLECT PROJECTILES (both attack or spell) if hit at a perfect timing. Projectiles is deflected toward the casteattacker unit dealing 85% of the original damage with 50% increased Projectile Missile Speed. He could also deflect Turret attacks but defelected damage deal 50% of the original amount. W ACTIVATION: On active, Aizen tumble then enter quick draw stance - stays in place to gather focus, which grant him bonus Attack Speed and Reduce incoming damages that lasts until leaving the stance. Tumble can be recasted during this stance.
Slash Damage
(100/120/140/160/180% of his AD) (+40% AP)
Stance Slash Radius
600 units
Attack Speed
(20/25/30/35/40%)
Damage Reduction
(12/16/20/24/28%) (+5% per 100 AP)
Tumble
425 units
Tumble Cooldown
(6/5.5/5/4.5/4) seconds
Tumble Cost
20 energy
3. Sword Breaker Style
STANCE: Aizen enter this stance holding his sword two hands with sword placed horizontaly right above his head level. Left foot forward and right foot at the back. This style is good for heavy crowd control, outplay Melee Enemy with a disarm effect, good mobility stance and initiating gameplay. AUTO-ATTACK STYLE: This attack can PARRY any types of Melee attack for a certain condition. If Aizen's Auto-attack and enemy's auto-attack is released/strike at the Same time he will parry. Parry instantly nullify the melee attack of target which then Aizen perform an instant counter strike with the Hilt of Sword that deal Physical Damage and Disarm them for a duration by hitting their hand. This parry have on-target cooldown to every unit. W ACTIVATION: Aizen dashes to target direction and slashes all unit hit dealing Magic Damage. Unit hit are also Taunted to attack him for a duration. This dash can be recasted during this stance.
Hilt Strike Damage
(20/25/30/35/40) (+115% AD)
Disarm Duration
(1.5/1.75/2/2.25/2.5) seconds
On-target Cooldown
(12/11/10/9/8) seconds
Dash Damage
(60/80/100/120/140) (+75% bonus AD) (+50% AP)
Taunt Duration
(0.8/1/1.2/1.4/1.6) seconds
Dash Range
650 units
Dash Cooldown
(24/22/20/18/16) seconds
Dash Cost
(40/35/30/25/20) energy
4. Soaring Sun Style
STANCE: Aizen enter in the stance where he held the sword one-handed, sword pointing downward, both hands open and proceed in a half-low body running (like a ninja running approach). This style allows him to hide above ground while untargetable and at the same time deal damages by releasing multiple slashes. AUTO-ATTACK STYLE: A target range is shown where Aizen can LEFT CLICK (LMB) and DRAG the mouse cursor to perform a directional slash (imagine playing Fruit Ninja) BUT he will be slowed by 15% for 1 second after evey slash. These directional slash deal Physical Damage, it will not scale on attack speed BUT IT DEPENDS on how fast player can do the Click and Drag command. Slash does not apply on-hit effects and could not deal damage to turrets. W ACTIVATION: Enter the Soaring Sun Stance where he jump above while slowly decending toward cursor location, making him untargetable for a duration. AoE slash target range is also increased while above ground. Soaring sun stance can be activated again during this stance.
Soaring Stance Duration
(1/1.5/2/2.5/3) seconds
AoE Slash radius
650 units
Increased Slash range
900 units
Physical Damage
(15/30/45/60/75) (+65% AD) (+35% AP)
Slash Length
275 units
Soaring Sun Cooldown
(20/18/16/14/12) seconds
Cost
40 energy
5. Thousand Thorn Style
STANCE: Aizen enter a stance where he stand straight, hold the sword pointing forward like in fencing and other hand is on his back. This style can pindown single target easy, good at clearing lanes, deal nuke damages at crowded teamfights, best at split pushing and deal more damage against structures. AUTO-ATTACK STYLE: Basic attack now wind up for 0.85 second, then he perform a multiple thrust (15 thrust = 15 tick of damage) in front while moving forward slowly in over 1.5 second. This will deal Physical Damage and it will deal True Damage when enemy units have 50% and below Max Health. These thrusts never apply on-hit effects. Thrust is UNSTOPPABLE (cannot be CC'ed) but cannot deviate its direction during execution. This will deal 15% increase damage against Turrets/structures. W ACTIVATION: Aizen perform a single long stab that deal Magic Damage to first unit hit then enter Thousand Thorn Stance. This single stab Stun target for a duration, reduce their Armor and apply on-hit effects. Aizen can perform this single stab again during the stance.
STANCE: Aizen uses one hand, Grip the sword in reverse manner (hilt is on the direction of thumb and blade is on the direction of pinky finger) and form a stance with one foot forward. This style is a very mobile one, it also make him stealthy thus making him more an assassin type champion. With his surround slash he can deal more damage and could rip off tanky targets. AUTO-ATTACK STYLE: Aizen dashes to target unit and mark them for 4 seconds. This mark steals their Attack Speed but Aizen CANNOT perform a dash again to the Marked Units. Attack Speed is stackable from multiple unit marked. On every third attack, Aizen perform a surround slash that deal Physical Damage. Aizen can target turret and mark them but he cannot steal Attack speed. W ACTIVATION: Aizen enters Light Foot stance by becoming Invisible when moving but leaves an afterimage of himself in every 0.5 second. While moving he gradually gain Movement Speed but removes when entering the battle. Leaving the battle allow him to enter Light Foot stance again after 3 second of not dealing damage or taking damage. He can cast this spell again to gain Maximum Speed and enter stance instantly.
Dash Damage
110% AD
Dash Range
550 units
Attack Speed Steal per mark
(8/11/14/17/20%)
Surround Slash Damage
(110% AD) plus (6/7/8/9/10% max health)
Surround slash radius
225 units
Initial Movement Speed
10%
Maximum Speed
(30/35/40/45/50%) after 4 seconds
Light Foot Stance Cooldown
(15/14/13/12/11) seconds
Stance Cost
25 energy
7. Sleeping Dragon Style
STANCE: Aizen enter the stance where he use sword to attack while Sheated and hold the sword vertical with two hands, slightly covering his check. A combo based attack, more damage and finally an Executing attack. With the spellvamp, he can sustain decently so he can stay in the lane longer. AUTO-ATTACK STYLE: Aizen attack normally while sword is sheated. But when his 1st attack deal damage to Enemy Champion he enter a 5 modified auto-attack combo. 1st is normal strike. 2nd is dash in fixed line toward the cursor's direction that deal damage to all unit hit. 3rd is a target cone sweep in the cursor direction. 4th is a leap in the area toward the cursor location which Knock Airborne all unit hit. And 5th will unsheath his sword and do the final strike toward the target unit that deal executing Physical Damage. Each combo strikes scale on his current Attack Speed. If each attack fail to hit an Enemy Champion, combo is reset at the start. While in combo mode, Aizen CANNOT COMMAND MOVEMENT he winds up in place after every perform of strike. W ACTIVATION: Aizen dash at 450 unit distance and gain Spellvamp for 3.5 seconds then enter this Sleeping Dragon Stance.
Sheated Sword Strike Damage
(+90% AD)
2nd Strike Dash Range
450 units
3rd Strike Cone range
275 units
3rd Strike cone angle
40°
4th strike leap range
450 units
4th strike Aoe radius
150 units
Airborne Duration
(0.7/1/1.3/1.6/1.8) seconds
5th strike Physical Damage
Critical Strike plus (4/6/8/10/12% target's missing health)
Over 0.5 Goals Predictions and Over 0.5 Goals Betting Tips. Over 0.5 goals betting tips are one of the most profitable and most underestimated picks.Over 0.5 goals predictions are very preferable for live betting by tipsters and having a challenge roll-over on over 0.5 goals can lead to significant profits. Over 0.5 Goals HT Draw. Draw In First Half Draw In Final Result Total Goals. Sum of Goals Under 2 Sum of Goals 2 or 3 Away Win After Leading Home Win From Behind UNDER 0.5 GOALS MEANING. If you are placing a bet on Under 0.5 Goals, you are basically betting on a 0-0 draw.. In this instance, it might be worth checking the correct score market with other bookmakers to see if you can get better odds. Our football tips and football accumulator tips are based on our extensive knowledge of football stats. At WinDrawWin we have one of the most complete football statistics sections that covers both teams to score, BTTS and win, over/under 2.5 and 1.5 goals, half-time under/over, corner stats, and much more. It's pretty simple. If you back a game to be over 0.5 goals at half-time then there must be at least 1 goal scored by either team before half-time for your bet to win. If you back under 0.5 goals at half-time then there must be no goals in the first half for your bet to win - the score MUST be 0-0 at half-time for an under 0.5 goals bet to win. Betting on Over/Under 0.5 goals at half-time is effectively a yes/no bet on whether at least 1 goal will be scored, by either team, before half-time. The over 0.5 goals market is basically a market where you are betting for there to be at least one goal in a game of football. There can be any number of goals, just as long as there is at least one, and you will win your bet. The only score you can lose on is 0-0. Why Should You Bet on Over 0.5 Goals? Betting on over 0.5 goals can be attractive because of the high chances of success.
The Contest is Over… Did You Win?! Live Drawing the ...
Liverpool teenager Curtis Jones scores a stunning winner as a young Reds team extend Everton's miserable record of Anfield failure stretching back to Septemb... I am offering hourly skype lessons on how to use sbobet - the most accurate way to find from successful bets to manipulated/fixed matches. Via shared monitor... For more hockey stuff, follow me: http://twitter.com/Jeffler SUBSCRIBE http://bit.ly/SSFootballSubHighlights from Anfield of Liverpool's 3-1 victory over Arsenal in the Premier League.Watch Premier League LIVE on Sky... SUBSCRIBE http://bit.ly/SSFootballSubPREMIER LEAGUE HIGHLIGHTS http://bit.ly/SkySportsPLHighlightsHighlights from Anfield where Liverpool showed their po... The contest to win a copy of the GH5 Training (http://GH5Training.com) or a full year's access to http://PhotoApps.Expert is now over! Let's have a live draw... So Messi won it...BUT...did he deserve it??The ULTIMATE three-way BATTLE between the three best players in the world!... Who really deserved to win the Ballo... This formula will always give you a part of your money back, even if you predicted all of your games wrong ?!Look how I developed this unique way of sports b... Under/over bets are becoming increasing popular, and here are our tips to get the most out of them.1) Go further back. Don’t just judge teams on their last t... TOP 15 Incredible goals of the year! Ronaldo, Hazard, Gareth Bale, Pavard, Ibrahimovic, James Rodriguez and more ..🎶Elektronomia - Shine On (Ft. Katie McCon...
